NASDAQ - New ATH?
Bullish outlook is still in place for a while to come, and the instrument has an honest attempt of hitting new all-time highs. The model suggests that the highs at the end of 2021 are currently vulnerable to challenge with potential as previously indicated for a new ATH .
The index has been bullish from the start of the year, but it actually kicked off in October 2022 with an influx and continuation of considered interests.
Except for a notable downturn that lasted nearly the whole year of 2022, the Nasdaq has been rising steadily for all of time. Technical analyses maintain that prices are currently in a make-or-break situation due to the immediate challenge of the big decline in 2022, But that at these current levels, there should be sufficient drive to continue the ascent to new highs in form of a bullish stretch/ductility.
As with any new ATH, some type of collapse will become unavoidable, driving prices down, back to current levels and inherently giving Sellers a last ditch opportunity to address difficulties. This assumes that the projected ATH is reached, at which point more data analysis will be carried out.
If the scenario described above doesn't occur, a crash becomes possible with 15500 being the area of immediate interest.
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Nasdaq100
NAS100 SMT UPDATESMy first idea is to short this, but I see the price has and have more momentum keep on reaccumulating everytime stops.
So my speculation on this is reaccumulating again at 16460$ zone.
Money got transfer at 16669, Im expecting price to 17100-17150$ per $Nasdaq.
No room for Shorts, but be always careful stoploss is our friend here!.
Trade at your own risk.
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Thank you for all the support 500+ followers. im expecting only 400 followers this year.
THats why I keep posting some Good stuff.
Im just a nomad traders that you dont know. Experience is my key to success on trading.
I hope you do too.
Five waves up, three corrective wavesHello!
I am a big fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find very interesting and useful for market analysis. I have developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that could occur in the market.
While I would like to share my analysis with you, please note that I am not providing a buy or sell signal. My primary intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can utilize it as a guide to make an informed decision.
To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand.
I hope that my analysis is useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
I am looking forward to hearing from you. Lastly, I would like to mention that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, just like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you.
Sincerely
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 20 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
Looking exclusively for a buy, as Nasdaq is bullish overall – “The trend is your friend”
Navy blue trend line indicating just how steep and bullish the current trend is.
Interesting to see the 1H EMA matching the navy trend line almost perfectly.
The early morning market had pushed up since TP1 yesterday. A small double top had formed on the 1H TF and a red candle closed at 7am GMT on the 4H TF – this led me to believe a retracement might be in the works for today.
Decided I should enter my buy carefully with good confirmations (at least a break of the neckline of a double bottom market pattern), because at all-time highs the sellers are just waiting to jump in with a short.
Market came down strongly and started consolidating between the 50 and 61.8 Fib levels (fib drawn from swing low at A. and swing high at B. on the 4H TF).
I entered my buy at the break of the neckline of the double bottom that had formed on the 5min TF (indicated by the hand on the 15 min TF) – confirmations:
- Market pattern – break of the neckline of double bottom on 5min TF
- Fib – market hovering between the 0.5 and 0.618 fib level
- Trend line – not specifically respecting a trend line but buy in same direction as overall trend
- Candles - candles rejecting the 0.618 fib level with long wick candles on the 1H
- S&R – market consolidation near the brown line representing a resistance turned support level. Nasdaq re-testing this zone.
Mental stop loss placed at thick pink line. This was just below a strong 4H S&R zone and also the 0.618 fib level. So if candles started closing past this point then a sell would be in play and my buy would be invalidated.
Had multiple drawdowns and wondered if a 5min time frame to enter a buy was too small a TF. But stuck with my buy as my stop loss was not too far down and my loss would not be too big if stop loss hit.
Market open at 2:30pm GMT, introduced a strong bullish push and market rocketed up.
Secured my position at entry after market moved up +-250pips from my position. Then was trading risk free for the rest of the day.
The plan --> Wait for TP 1 to close half my position (if candles suggest weakness in this zone) and watch price action closely before closing the other half, hoping that market will rally.
The reality --> The 4H candle close at 7pm GMT failed to make a higher high from this morning. For me this was a bad sign and looked like it could be the peak of a second top on a double top market pattern on a very high TF (4H). So decided to close half my position at the orange dot.
Left the other half to run, but bears dominated with a massive push down, so I was out at entry.
Market moved about 950 pips from my buy and I took profit at about 600 pips.
What would I have done differently:
Feel like my trading was on point today, even though it wasn't the biggest pip profit, I am happy with my decisions and analysis.
Good luck if you are still trading! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
🔝 Nasdaq-100 Index: The House of Rising SunThe History is happening right here! ✨
Nasdaq-100 Index NASDAQ:NDX just set its Best First Half in almost 40 years since inception in 1985, with amazing 38.75% year-to-date return in 2023.
Among all semi-annual results, Nasdaq-100 gain this year is second only to the year of 1999.
With historical 61.44% gain in the second half of 1999, glory times shortly ended. Just two months later in the 1st quarter of 2000 index peaked at 4816.15, for the next 15 plus years.
As 38.75% surge in 2023 still far away from the All-the-history record 61.44% in 1999, stocks feel this year like they are, as the great 1960's band "The Animals" said, in the House of the Rising Sun. They won the race, and closed the 1st half of the year with solid gains.
Let's take a look and congratulate the winners of the race! ✨
🥇 The 1st place - Nvidia Corporation, 184.84% YTD return NASDAQ:NVDA
Nvidia is the clear winner in the AI arms race so far. It's the company that appears best positioned to dominate the burgeoning sector, and more and more investors continue to wake up to the potential of artificial intelligence.
Nvidia effectively provides a one-stop shop for what customers need to drive their AI ambitions. They control their entire ecosystem on both hardware and software, similar to Apple, and that puts them years ahead of competitors.
🥈 The 2nd place - Meta Platform Incorporation, 133.66% YTD return NASDAQ:META
Meta Platforms stock jumped this year after the tech giant's first-quarter earnings beat Wall Street's expectations. CEO Mark Zuckerberg also touted the tech giant's AI plans, and pledged to keep costs low as the owner of Facebook, WhatsApp and Instragram continues its "year of efficiency."
In a post-earnings call, Mark Zuckerberg hailed the company's AI efforts and vowed to keep a lid on spending. The Meta founder and CEO said AI recommendations had led to people spending over 24% more time on Instagram since it launched TikTok rival Reels.
🥉 The 3rd place - Tesla Incorporation, 120.88% YTD return NASDAQ:TSLA
Tesla's stock price has been rallying non-stop for months - and Wall Street is starting to ponder whether that breakneck surge might've made the EV stock a little overvalued.
Shares have jumped 57% since late April, with investors cheered by CEO Elon Musk signing charging deals with Ford and GM, while Big Tech stocks have also soared more broadly thanks to the rise of AI as an investment theme.
The stock just has settled its best two-quarter advance since 2020.
But Barclays, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have each questioned that valuation over the past two weeks, with all three banks slashing their Tesla rating from "buy" to "hold".
Unprecedented dominance
It's historically rare for a handful of stocks from the same sector to make up such a large part of the S&P500 ( SP:SPX ).
The last time the five biggest companies by valuation accounted for a quarter of the index's total market cap was indeed the 1960s.
Nasdaq100: Analyzing the Potential Impact of a Rising Wedge The Nasdaq100, a benchmark index comprised of 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, has long been a key indicator of the tech-heavy segment of the market. However, recent market trends and technical analysis have sparked concerns about a potential downturn, largely attributed to the formation of a rising wedge pattern that commenced on December 7th.
A rising wedge is a technical chart pattern characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows, converging in a manner that resembles a triangle with a rising slope. Despite its name, this pattern often signals a potential reversal in the market's upward trajectory, suggesting an imminent downturn.
Since its inception on December 7th, the Nasdaq100 has exhibited this distinct pattern, with successive higher highs and higher lows gradually converging. While such formations are not definitive predictors of future market movements, they serve as cautionary indicators, prompting investors and analysts to scrutinize the market's behavior more closely.
Historically, rising wedges have been associated with bearish implications for the markets. The narrowing price range within this pattern indicates a loss of momentum and an impending decrease in buying interest. As a result, investors tend to grow cautious and may start reducing their positions, leading to a potential selloff.
Several factors may exacerbate the impact of this pattern on the Nasdaq100's performance. Firstly, the ongoing concern about inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and potential interest rate hikes by central banks may contribute to market volatility. Moreover, uncertainties surrounding geopolitical tensions and global economic recovery post-pandemic continue to cast a shadow on investor sentiment.
Tech stocks, which heavily populate the Nasdaq100, are particularly sensitive to market shifts and sentiment changes. The rising wedge pattern's presence within this index raises concerns about the sustainability of the rally that propelled many technology companies to soaring heights.
However, it's crucial to note that technical patterns are just one aspect of market analysis and not foolproof predictors. Fundamental analysis, including a company's financial health, earnings reports, and industry trends, plays a significant role in determining stock performance.
Investors and traders are closely monitoring key support and resistance levels within the rising wedge pattern. A breach below the lower trendline could signal confirmation of a potential downturn, prompting increased selling pressure and a bearish outlook for the Nasdaq100.
In conclusion, the Nasdaq100's formation of a rising wedge pattern since December 7th has raised concerns among market participants. While technical analysis suggests a potential downturn, it's imperative to consider broader market dynamics and fundamental factors that could influence the index's future performance. As investors navigate these uncertainties, a cautious approach with a diversified portfolio and strategic risk management may prove prudent in navigating potential market volatility ahead.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 20/12/2023 (+ HTF)The wave (4) as a WXYXZ structure in the primary scenario was earlier confirmed as we took out the wave (3) high. We are now working on a wave (5). In the daily time frame, the upward move looks still very strong. Therefore, we are considering an alternative scenario where the wave (4) pullback is a wave (2) correction. That would mean that we are doing a wave (3) now.
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Tuesday 19 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
Looking exclusively for a buy, as Nasdaq is bullish overall – “The trend is your friend”.
Navy blue trend line indicating just how steep and bullish the current trend is. Even though we are at all-time highs, I keep my bias as a buy because up until now Nasdaq is giving all the confirmations for a buy.
At the time of my analysis, I noted the following:
The early morning market had already closed a 4H candle in green at D. on the 4H TF. – meaning buyers were already resisting a bearish push down from Nasdaq all-time high.
1H EMA and pivot point were below candles, giving bullish push up.
30min EMA had been acting as dynamic support (as seen on the 30min chart). Nasdaq respects 30min EMA when the market is very bullish.
Long wick candle had already touched the 4H 0.382 fib retracement level (also at D.) and market had moved up from there.
Entered a buy at C. – Confirmations:
Market Pattern – break of the neckline of the double bottom
Fib – shallow retracement (0.382) on high time frame reached i.e. 4H TF with swing low at A. and swing high at B.
Candlesticks – long wick candle rejecting 0.382 area
S&R – 30min EMA providing dynamic support
Mental stop placed below the thick pink line – this area represents a 4H 0.618 retracement, the seller’s TP2 and a previously very strong resistance level, now turned support. So if candles start closing below this point then the buy is invalidated.
Entering a buy at C. was poor form and represented lack of concentration on my part. In my opinion, this does not represent a double bottom and there was no break of the neckline at C. If you change the 1H chart to a line chart you will not see a clear double bottom. Clearly, I had not had my morning coffee before executing this buy.
The correct place to execute a buy would have been at E. This is where a double top had formed on the 1H TF and the market had moved down the same distance as the height of the market pattern. At E. there was strong support + a re-test of the neckline of the double top in the same direction as the overall trend. So, I was 150 pips from where I wanted to be. Not a big issue but still…irritating.
Market moved up, tested the very temporary down trend (marked in yellow) with a 1H red candle and market open saw a 1H and 4H candle close just a above the Nasdaq all-time high. Unbelievable.
Decided to take partial profit (30% of my total position size) at the purple dot because the blue trend line represents the top of a rising wedge chart pattern on the D chart. So +- 650 pips profit.
Leaving the rest to run and will judge take profit on the price action.
But plan is to take 20% more partial profit at TP1 and let the rest run. Otherwise I will be out at entry.
I would have entered 2 more positions at the orange dot because of the 1H EMA + Pivot + 0.382 fib level and I would have held to a draw down till the 4H 0.618 because it was only +- 320 pips down, so not far to go.
Good luck if you are still trading – hope you caught the buy! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Monday 18 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
Looking exclusively for a buy, as Nasdaq is bullish overall – “The trend is your friend”
Navy blue trend line indicating just how steep and bullish the current trend is.
At the time of my analysis, noted the following:
In the early morning hours, the market had tested the pivot point and the 1H EMA at C. resulting in a long wick candle – showing buyers rejecting this area.
From there, market moved up steadily towards the pink resistance line.
This pink line has been rejected on multiple occasions on the 4H TF. This resistance represents the highest ever 4H candle close in Nasdaq history, so it’s a significant resistance zone.
Even though we had a deep retracement at A. previously, the market (bullish trend) + pivot points + EMA's are moving closer and closer to this line, even after multiple rejections. So bulls keep pushing up to this area.
The early morning bulls had broken the yellow temporary trend line, by the green 4H candle close at C.
So for me, with pivots and EMA’s below the candles and the temporary yellow down trend broken, market was ready to test the pink resistance line again today. It seemed that the fib drawn previously (the other day) from swing low at A. to swing high at B, was still in play. I was ready for a buy.
Bears pushed down heavily at +- 8:30am GMT, pushed through the 1H EMA, down to the pivot.
I entered a buy at the bottom of the wick at D. (the stars aligned, and it was a perfect buy) – Confirmations:
- S&R: Pivot point
- Trend line: Navy blue trend line
- Fib level: 0.50 fib level on the short term Fib on 1H (drawn in)
Super aggressive entry, where candles could easily have fallen through. But I have seen with Nasdaq that sometimes the market will push to the very tipping point and then move significantly from there. Sometimes that tipping point is not clear. But today it was clear (to me at least) that if Nasdaq closes down past the pivot point (which was below the 1H EMA) that a big retracement would take place.
Entering at this very tipping point between buy and sell can sometimes be a good strategy (and one that I must test more) because your stop loss is so close to your entry, that you don’t stand to lose much. If the candles start closing below the pivot point and the bulls are not strong enough to even bounce from this zone, then the buy is invalid and you cut your small losses quickly. But often, at this tipping point, you get a big reaction, and this is what happened today.
Once the market moved up +-250 pips, I put stop loss at entry and I was trading risk free for the day.
Ultimately, New York market open was strong enough to close a 4H candle above the pink resistance line (the highest ever 4H candle close).
With bulls strong enough to achieve this, I knew Nasdaq was in new territory and was willing to go big or go home with nothing (i.e I would not take profit until market rallied - I would rather be taken out at entry). Market retested the pink line with a red candle on the 1H and moved up from there.
In terms of taking profit, I wanted to see how far bulls could rally and waited for the first red candle to close on the 1H TF before closing for the day (at purple dot).
Market ran +- 1650 pips from my entry and I closed at +- 1300 pips profit for the day (at purple dot).
What would I have done differently:
Enter a bigger position at my entry today. So easy to say in hindsight, isn't it! :) But I need to do some serious back testing on my "tipping point" theory - so that's my take away for today.
We are now close to Nasdaq all time high – exciting times! :)
Good luck if you are still trading – hope you caught the buy! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 18/12/2023 (+ HTF)The wave (4) as a WXYXZ structure in the primary scenario was earlier confirmed as we took out the wave (3) high. We are now working on a wave (5). In the daily time frame, the move up looks still very strong. Therefore, we are considering an alternative scenario where the wave (4) pullback is a wave (2) correction. That would mean that we are doing a wave (3) now.
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 15 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
Looking exclusively for a buy, as Nasdaq is bullish overall – “The trend is your friend”
At the time of my analysis, noted the following:
Fireball:
A beautiful double bottom formed on the 15min TF (as indicated by the fireball). What a perfect buy – confirmations here would have been:
- Market pattern: Break of the neckline of double bottom on the 15min TF
- FIB level: Double bottom formed in a 0.618 fib level (this is a strong level) on a fib that was drawn on a high TF (4H TF)
- S&R: Dynamic support by the 1H 50 EMA
- S&R: Rough dynamic support of the 4H EMA at the bottom of the long wick candle
- Candles: Long wick candle forming in strong fib level and 4H EMA level
But unfortunately, I was sleeping – Hope you caught this gem!
So had to look for my imperfect entry.
Noted that a big double bottom had formed on the 1H TF and had broken the neckline at A.
At B. there was a small re-test of the neckline supported by the 1H EMA plus the 30min EMA.
I was very cautious of a sell retracement because yesterday’s D candle closed in the red and in a doji formation, indicating that a bigger retracement might be in the works. This could be a real possibility, because we are at all time highs so the market might retrace on the bigger TF and then gather enough bulls to push through and create new all time highs.
Sell retracement draw in.
Entered a buy at C. – Confirmations:
- S&R: dynamic support by both the 1H and 30min EMA
- Candles: Long wick candle at B on 1H TF
- FIB: Yesterday the market moved down to 0.618 level and is now moving up in a good trend line (marked by temporary orange trend line). Market may be heading for the TP1 of yesterday's 4H buy fib.
- Entered at C. where the 15min candle closed past the 0.618 SELL fib level (to be extra safe, because the candles were rejecting from this level just prior)
Mental stop was placed just below pivot point and neck line of the 1H double bottom.
Market moved up and I set stop loss at entry after +- 250 pips.
Market took me out after a double top formed on the 1H TF and I entered again at D. - Confirmations:
- Market Pattern: Retest of double bottom on 1H TF
- Candles: 5min showed consolidation at this level
- Market pattern: Market had travelled down more than the height of the double top and was bound to re-test the neckline. I like being part of a re-test that is in the same direction as the overall trend (bullish in this case).
- This was an aggressive entry.
Market moved up and I secured at entry.
In the minutes before New York market open, the bears pushed down and I was out at entry at E. and happy to be out because the neckline of the double top seemed to hold the bears down at that moment in time.
Market was too choppy for me and market open was in a few seconds so I decided to stay out for the day.
It’s a good trading day when you make profit (obviously :) ), make a small loss (shows risk management + good trade management) or you stay out (and protect your capital in a choppy market).
It turned out to be an unfortunate spike down for me because the bulls accelerated up after market open and I lost out on about 1000 pips at the time of writing this. But it could’ve gone the other way as well!
What could I have done better:
I’m happy with my decisions today – could have maybe been more aggressive and waited for the 5 min candle to close at E, but it was too risky for me as it was just before market open and I took a loss yesterday so had to be conservative.
Good luck if you are still trading – hope you caught the buy! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
NDX Broke Double Bullish Pattern, 16600 SoonDear Traders,
NDX broke the falling channel (long purple trendlines) and then repeated a breakout from the falling wedge (short purple trendlines).
I believe NDX can continue its rally because MACD turned bullish, and I can see a confirmed bullish cross on the RSI. The price is above EMAs, and the volume is high enough for the continuation. I believe the target could be around 16600.
NDX is also overbought. While I expect further upside, traders without an existing position from lower target prices could wait for a corrective retracement to enter.
Kind regards,
Ely
Nasdaq 100 - Sell (Double Top, H&S Pattern, 0.618 Fib Extension)- Double top formation forming on the Daily/Weekly chart
- Head & Shoulders Pattern potential to form (2nd top in double top is the head of H&S patter)
- Price has reached Fibo 0.618 extension, potential area for reversal
- Mean reversion back to the long term trend line (excluding the inflationary impact of money
printing)
- News celebrating all time high, contrarian approach to avoid masses excitement/hysteria.
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 14 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
Looking exclusively for a buy, as Nasdaq is bullish overall – “The trend is your friend”
Noted that Nasdaq rallied +- 1000 pips since market open on 14 Dec. Basically the continuation move from FOMC last night.
At the time of my analysis, a nice double top had formed on the 1H TF.
The bears broke the neckline of the double top and the market moved down +- the same distance as the height of the pattern.
Here the market found support 16610 level on the 1H. 30min EMA provided dynamic support in this area as well.
A double bottom formed on the 15min TF and I entered a buy on the break of the neckline (as indicated by the hand).
Confirmations:
- Market pattern: Double top profit target reached on 1H TF (ie the market moved +- the same distance as the height of the pattern)
- Market pattern: break of neckline of double bottom on 15min TF
- S&R: dynamic support by 30min EMA
- Previous day positive sentiment regarding FOMC
This was an aggressive move because if the market was going to retrace, the 4H fib level were FAR down (0.382 fib level is 730 pips down - thats a big draw down).
Watched price action carefully ad up until market open, I could see buyers preset in the market.
On market open bears testes down and bulls tested the highest 4H candle close and this session ended in a red doji candle.
I had a bad feeling when momentum of market open was not able to break the pink resistance line. If you watched the candles at 3pm GMT, you would have noted the market pushing a bit over the pink resistance line and then in the last seconds of the sessions bears dominated.
At this point I should have trusted my gut / bad feeling and put stop loss at entry, but alas. The green doji on the 4H threw me off.
Wanted to see how market would react to 1H EMA and the first red candle after the doji on the 1H closed above the 1H EMA, which gave me hope that the 1H EMA would hold as dynamic support.
But as it came down a second time and closed below the 1H EMA, I decided to close.
Took an 800 pips loss for the day.
What could I have done differently:
Trusted my gut on the formation of the 1H red doji and gotten out because my buy was aggressive in the first place.
Also the doji indicated that the market came to re-test the neckline of the double top on the 1H and failed (even with the momentum of market open) to break through, so a strong sell was in play.
Also a buy at all time highs is agressive.
Not getting back in today as the 4H EMA is so far down. I rather live to trade another day!
At least I still have my (partial position) buys open from the other day which is 3'500 pips up.
Hope you did better than me! :)
- Ultimately 1000 pips LOSS for the day.
- Got the market totally wrong and I am out for the rest of the day!
- No revenge or overtrading for me.
- Good luck if you are still trading!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
S&R = Support and resistance
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 15/12/2023The wave (4) as a WXYXZ structure in the primary scenario was earlier confirmed as we took out the wave (3) high. On the one hand, this is bullish as we are now working on a wave (5). On the other hand, we have to be careful with the expectations for this fifth wave. With the current data, we favor some more upside but we do not expect a huge wave (5) bull run.
UPDATE: Nasdaq easily heading to first target 16,956Similar to Dow Jones, the Nasdaq is heading to our initial target of 16,956.
Also formed a Cup and Handle. Also above the 200MA.
Also moving based on the fundamentals of weaker US dollar and slow down in interest rate hikes.
Also, with AI tech and EVs taking over control with many different companies in some ways or another, we can expect the tech boom going into 2024.
All the reasons to stay bullish and optimistic.
Or am I just feeling the festive season too much?
You let me know!
NAS100/NASDAQ UPDATESIm updating this idea, FOr valid and invalid zone, if price keep pushing higher or break this high, then probably this idea is invalid.
If price start declining then Im expecting price goes 15600-15500 zone for grab demand. before we can take off to higher 16300$ zone.
This is only my view, This is not a financial advice.
Follow for more.
I will update this if price has momentum on the upside, my bias is still short. before we can take off. Use that highs as your stoploss no matter what.
Trade at your own risk.
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Tuesday 13 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT.
Looking exclusively for a buy because Nasdaq is bullish at the moment - "The trend is your friend".
As always in a trending market, the market could retrace before continuing the current trend.
So I drew my Fib from swing low at A. to swing high at B. on the 4H TF - the higher the TF the stronger the fib levels "could" be.
Noted that the market had broken out of the rising wedge which had been forming on the D TF (visible also on the M TF here).
There was no proper re-test of the dark brown line which gave me the feeling that the market still needed to retest this chart pattern.
Yesterday was also CPI news, so I knew it would be a volatile day. I didn't want to get into the market early (before CPI) because this could cause spikes down back into the rising wedge, which if the sellers jumped in, could cause the candles to get sucked deep back into the rising wedge chart pattern.
I also noted that the 4H 20 EMA was far down below and it was a 1300 pip drop to the 0.618 fib level from where the candles were consolidating when I did my analysis. That's a very big draw down that I didn't want to take a chance on.
So I decided to wait for CPI to be released at 13:30pm GMT.
As the morning progressed, noted the formation of a rising wedge (roughly marked with green lines).
CPI caused two long wick candles, one red candle with a long wick up and one green candle with a long wick down - forming a doji on the 4H TF.
I entered a buy at 1. with only one position - confirmations:
1. The CPI green candle reached down to the 0.382 fib retracement level and closed green, above the 1H 20 EMA - indicating that even with news, the dynamic support offered by the 20 EMA was holding strong. So confirmations = Fib level + dynamic support + long wick candlestick formation.
2. Having watched the candles / price action the whole morning, I felt buyers where strong because even the 30min EMA was acting as support until CPI.
Stop loss was a mental stop placed below the 0.382 level at the pivot point. If the candles started closing below this level there would be the serious possibility of the market falling back down into the rising wedge formation.
The market moved up from here and I placed an actual stop loss at entry when the market was +- 250pips from my position.
Watched the candles closely at TP1 to determine if I had to take partial profit but bulls pushed through easily and I held my full position.
Eventually just before my bedtime, I closed 70% of my position at 2. at +- 21:55pm GMT.
So that's +- 1400pips profit for the day.
Leaving the rest to run today.
Today we have FOMC, plus we get to watch what the market does as it approaches the all time high on the M TF.
All the best for your trading! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 13/12/2023The wave (4) as a WXYXZ structure in the primary scenario was earlier confirmed as we took out the wave (3) high. On the one hand, this is bullish as we are now working on a wave (5). On the other hand, we have to be careful with the expectations for this fifth wave. With the current data, we favor some more upside but we do not expect a huge wave (5) bull run.
Expanded Wave Three, Five Waves Up???Hello!
I am a big fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find very interesting and useful for market analysis. I have developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that could occur in the market.
While I would like to share my analysis with you, please note that I am not providing a buy or sell signal. My primary intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can utilize it as a guide to make an informed decision.
To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand.
I hope that my analysis is useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
I am looking forward to hearing from you. Lastly, I would like to mention that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, just like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you.
Sincerely,
A corrective pattern to the side of the big waveHello!
I am a big fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find very interesting and useful for market analysis. I have developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that could occur in the market.
While I would like to share my analysis with you, please note that I am not providing a buy or sell signal. My primary intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can utilize it as a guide to make an informed decision.
To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand.
I hope that my analysis is useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
I am looking forward to hearing from you. Lastly, I would like to mention that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, just like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you.
Sincerely,
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Monday 11 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis +- 5:20am GMT
Looking exclusively for a buy as Nasdaq is overall bullish - "The trend is your friend"
Noted at A. that the market retested the blue downtrend line that it had been respecting - candle closed above trendline and moved up from there. A clear break and retest of the downtrend line.
At time of analysis, the market was consolidating at 1.
Drew my buy fib from swing low at A. to swing high at B.
Noted that 0.383 Fib retracement level aligned with pivot point at 2.
Noted that all EMA's + pivot point were below candles - indicating dynamic support for a push up.
Noted the formation of a double bottom, indicated by the hand and supported by the 1H 20 EMA.
Entered a buy at 1. at the break of the neckline - Confirmations:
- Market pattern - break of neckline of double bottom on 1H TF
- Dynamic support of the 1H 20 EMA
- Close to (230 pips) the shallow retracement level (0.382 fib level) + pivot point - so draw down would be minimal
- Trendline - downtrend broken & retested already
Entered at about 6am GMT
Was planning to enter another position if the market reached 2.
But this was not the case, as from there the market moved up nicely and market open went in my favour.
I took partial profit twice (closed a portion of my position twice), close to TP1 (marked by the purple dots) as I noted some weakness in the candles. This was a strong sell area as Buyer's TP1 had been reached (indicating the buy was possibly over) + the upper line of the Rising Wedge formation on the D TF.
I left a runner (a portion of my position) open with a time stop i.e. I leave it open until the end of the day as Nasdaq can often rally for the whole day.
This turned out to be the case TP2 was reached.
- Ultimately 1000 pips profit at TP1 and +- 2000 pips profit at TP2 for my runner.
- Will leave my runner open for 12 Dec trading and see how that goes.
What could I have done better:
I should have entered my second position after the formation of the green hangman candle (seven candles after 1.). Market pushed below the neckline (long wick down) and closed green above the neckline and EMA. This indicated buyers strength in the market.
Good luck if you are still trading! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
Nasdaq 100 Rally to All time HIghs - QQQNASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:NDX
Here's what I see shaping up in the Nasdaq 100
💡 Remember we do have two big news events this week . The inflation CPI # Tuesday and the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.
These two events 📰will be huge market drivers. One or both could disappoint and cause a decent pullback.
Putting that aside for now I do see positioning and a technical target 🎯in the 430 range for QQQ.
Buckle up - it's going to be an interesting week