Nasdaq100
Island Bottom CONFIRMED on $QQQ IF we GAP up tomorrow!Island Bottom CONFIRMED on NASDAQ:QQQ IF we GAP up tomorrow!
I only believe we GAP up tomorrow IF there is news of China coming to the negotiation table with the U.S after they have raised the Reciprocal Tariffs to 104%.
If this doesn't happen then this isn't confirmed and we see a retest of $400 IMO!
I'm not playing this as a trade until we get confirmation! Too dangerous!
Not financial advice
Nasdaq-100 H1 | Potential bullish bounceNasdaq-100 (NAS100) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 17,407.64 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 17,000.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 18,238.84 which is a swing-high resistance.
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Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower after experiencing extreme volatility the previous day. Following a gap-down open, the market attempted a bottoming process. However, the spread of fake news related to tariffs triggered a 10% intraday swing, making the Nasdaq trade more like an individual stock than a major index. Massive trading volume occurred due to margin calls from CFDs and hedge funds, and the market showed some signs of recognition around a potential short-term bottom.
On the weekly chart, the index rebounded but was resisted at the 3-week moving average. On the daily chart, a doji bullish candlestick with strong volume formed, suggesting the market may attempt another rebound. However, since volatility from the bottom remains significant, if you’re planning to enter long positions, it's best to buy as close to the bottom as possible. If the market continues to form a base, a rebound toward the 5-day or 10-day moving average on the daily chart is possible.
On the 240-minute chart, the market is still in a death cross and remains oversold. Still, it's showing signs of forming a base around the 16,500 level, so it's better to avoid chasing short positions during any pullbacks that could form a double bottom. In this oversold environment, a buy-on-dip approach near the lows is favorable for a technical rebound. But since volatility remains high, make sure to set clear stop-loss levels for both long and short trades.
Crude Oil
Crude oil experienced a gap-down on the daily chart and closed lower after hitting resistance at the 3-day moving average. On both the daily and weekly charts, the $57–$59 zone appears to be a short-term support level. If the price dips into this zone, it may offer a buying opportunity. Yesterday’s candle was resisted at the 3-day line, so if a bottoming pattern forms today, a rebound toward the 5-day moving average could be anticipated. However, since the MACD has just issued a sell signal near the zero line, it's better to treat any long positions as short-term trades.
On the 240-minute chart, the sell signal is still valid, and the market remains in oversold territory. Watching for a potential double bottom formation before entering long positions is recommended. That said, if market sentiment continues to accept economic recession as a given, oil prices could keep falling. There's also the risk of a one-way downward move, so if you're going long, ensure tight stop-loss levels are in place.
Gold
Gold saw sharp volatility and closed lower after being rejected at the 5-day moving average. Due to the weaker dollar from U.S. tariff announcements, the attractiveness of gold has diminished in the short term. On the weekly chart, gold is still forming a range-bound movement near the 10-week moving average, with support appearing near the $2,975 level. On the daily chart, the lower Bollinger Band and the 60-day moving average are rising and beginning to converge.
These overlapping indicators could form a strong support zone, so if the price drops into this area, it may present a good opportunity to buy the dip. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD and signal lines have both dropped below the zero line, and the RSI has entered oversold territory.
While this could lead to further accelerated selling, it is also a zone where a rebound from oversold conditions could easily occur. It’s best to avoid chasing the downside and instead focus on buying during pullbacks near strong support zones.
Market volatility is increasing, but this is also a zone where technical rebounds are likely due to excessive declines. While confirmation of a bottoming pattern is needed, in this kind of market, it's safer to focus on one direction rather than trying to trade both ways.
Long positions currently offer a better risk-reward ratio, so it’s advisable to enter at the lower end of the range. Reduce leverage as much as possible and always set stop-loss levels to ensure safe trading in these turbulent conditions.
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Nasdaq 100 drops to its lowest level since January 2024Nasdaq 100 drops to its lowest level since January 2024
According to the chart of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), the index opened this week around the 16,500 mark – a price level last seen in early 2024.
This suggests that the sharp sell-off in equities seen last Thursday and Friday may well continue today.
Stock indices respond to Trump’s tariffs
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on NBC News’ Meet the Press that there is “no reason” to expect a recession.
However, equity charts reflect market sentiment described by CNN Business’s Fear & Greed Index as “extreme fear”. This wave of negativity followed President Trump’s announcement on 2 April of harsher-than-expected international trade tariffs. In response, China and other nations announced retaliatory measures.
As a result, the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) now trades roughly 25% below its 2025 peak – officially entering bear market territory.
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen)
Back on 28 February, we drew an ascending trendline (line A). Bulls attempted a rebound from this support (as shown by the arrow), but their efforts were overwhelmed by the White House’s latest policy decisions.
Given the updated price action, we can now treat line A as the median of an ascending channel. From this perspective, the index is currently near the lower boundary of the channel.
Technically, this could indicate potential support. However, as long as the price remains below the bearish gap – which includes the key psychological level of 17,000 – talk of a meaningful recovery may be premature.
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Is This a Bear Market or a Golden Opportunity?The indices have plummeted sharply, and whether you believe this is due to Trump’s tariffs or would have happened anyway, regardless of the trigger, the reality remains the same.
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are officially in bear market territory— defined by a decline of more than 20% from their peaks . Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down approximately 15%.
Given these facts, the big question is: Are we in a bear market, or is this a fantastic buying opportunity? 📉📈
Now, let's break down the key levels, potential scenarios, and how to approach the current market environment. 🚀
Dow Jones 30 (DJI): Navigating Key Support and Resistance Levels
On the weekly chart, DJI has been in an uptrend since the pandemic lows of 2020. The double top formation from 45k measured target has already been exceeded, and the index is now approaching a critical confluence support zone between 37k and 37,700.
📌 My Outlook:
• I believe this support will hold in the near future, presenting a buying opportunity.
• Resistances: 40k and 41,600 are important technical levels and potential targets for bulls.
💡 Alternative Scenario:
• If DJI starts rising without testing the long-term confluence support, I will focus on selling opportunities, particularly around the 41,500 zone, as we have 2 unfilled gaps from last week.
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S&P 500 (SPX): Bear Market Territory, But Still Holding Uptrend (posted main chart)
According to classical theory, SPX is now officially in bear market territory. However, we are still above the ascending trend line established from the 2020 pandemic low, and approaching a confluence support zone around 4,820 - 4,900.
📌 My Outlook:
• I will be looking for buying opportunities if the index continues its decline towards the 4,820 - 4,900 zone next week.
• Target: Filling the first gap at 5,400.
💡 Alternative Scenario:
• If the week begins positively, and SPX doesn’t reach the 4,900 support zone, I will focus on shorting opportunities on gap filling, aiming for a return to 5,000.
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Nasdaq 100 (Nas100): Hovering Above Key Support
Unlike DJI and SPX, Nas100 is still well above the ascending trend line from the 2020 pandemic low. However, it is nearing an important horizontal support defined by the 2021 ATH and the 2024 lows.
📌 My Outlook:
• Drops towards 17k or slightly lower could present good buying opportunities, anticipating a potential rise to fill the gaps.
💡 Alternative Scenario:
• If the price rises above 18.500k zone without dipping under 17k I will look for selling opportunities.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
NDX : It's time to take a step backThis is a level I'll be closely watching for making aggressive additions. Until then, only selective entries in U.S. Oil ETFs, Silver and Gold ETFs, and a few individual stocks may be considered. However, large-scale accumulation is not advisable until this level is reached.
I may also consider dollar-cost averaging into index ETFs if I start to see signs of consolidation from here onward.
📢📢📢
If my perspective changes or if I gather additional fundamental data that influences my views, I will provide updates accordingly.
Thank you for following along with this journey, and I remain committed to sharing insights and updates as my trading strategy evolves. As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions or comments.
Other posts related to this particular position and scrip, if any, will be attached underneath. Do check those out too.
Disclaimer : The analysis shared here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in all markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It’s essential to conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this analysis are solely mine. It’s important to note that I am not a SEBI registered analyst, so the analysis provided does not constitute formal investment advice under SEBI regulations.
NAS100 Turn of the Month Strategy Meets Market Volatility!In this video, we dive into the Turn of the Month Strategy and explore how it could play out in the current market environment. Historically, mutual funds rebalance their portfolios at the end of the month, creating buying pressure that often leads to higher stock prices into the new month. Additionally, recurring financial inflows, such as monthly salary payments and pension contributions, tend to boost market demand during this period.
However, this month presents a unique challenge. The NASDAQ 100 has capitulated into the end of the month, driven by heightened volatility and uncertainty fueled by Donald Trump's rhetoric. With the market currently trading into a significant support zone and liquidity pool, we analyze whether the Turn of the Month effect can counteract the recent bearish momentum.
📊 Key Highlights in the Video:
Price Action Analysis: The NASDAQ 100 is deeply overextended, trading into a critical liquidity pool.
Trade Idea: A potential counter-trend rally could emerge as the market seeks to correct and rebalance.
Strategy: Look for a short-term rally into resistance, followed by a possible shorting opportunity as the market resumes its downward trend.
This video is perfect for traders looking to combine price action trading with seasonal strategies like the Turn of the Month effect. Will the market rally into the new month, or will bearish momentum prevail? Watch now to find out! 🚀
Short Position - NASDAQShort Position Entry: Consider initiating a short position if the Nasdaq-100 Index falls below 21,000.
Stop Loss (SL): Set a stop loss at 21,555 to manage potential losses.'
Market Sentiment: The combination of the Federal Reserve's cautious approach and rising inflation may contribute to a weakening market sentiment, potentially leading to a downward movement in the index.
his recommendation is for educational purposes only. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Stock trading involves risks, including the potential loss of capital. Ensure to evaluate your risk tolerance and conduct thorough research.
NASDAQ CRASH: Are We in a Bear Market? Let’s Break it Down!The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) just took a huge dive, dropping 21.69% from its recent highs. That officially meets the definition of a bear market (a decline of 20% or more). The question is: Are we going lower, or is a reversal coming? Let’s analyze the moving averages, Fibonacci levels, and key market signals to figure out what’s next.
📊 Moving Averages Breakdown: A Bearish Trend Confirmation?
One of the biggest red flags here is how the price is behaving relative to its moving averages:
🔴 Short-Term Moving Averages (Yellow & Green - 9 EMA & 21 EMA)
These are the fastest-moving indicators and help us track momentum.
The price has been consistently closing below them, showing strong bearish pressure.
Whenever the price tries to bounce, it gets rejected at these levels, signaling weak demand.
🟠 Mid-Term Moving Averages (Orange - 50 MA)
The 50-day moving average acts as a key support/resistance zone in many market trends.
In this chart, we saw a breakdown below the 50 MA, and since then, the price hasn’t even attempted to reclaim it.
This suggests that even mid-term traders are losing confidence, leading to further selling pressure.
🔵 Long-Term Moving Averages (Blue - 200 MA)
The 200-day moving average is a critical level for defining long-term trends.
Right now, the index is trading well below the 200 MA, which signals a major trend shift—we're no longer in a bull market.
The further we move away from this level, the harder it becomes for bulls to regain control.
➡️ Conclusion: All key moving averages are trending downward, and the price is failing to reclaim even short-term levels. This means we are likely in a sustained bear market unless we see a major reversal.
Key Fibonacci Levels & Market Structure
We are currently testing the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 17,268. If this level fails, we could see further downside towards 15,771 (2.618 Fib) or even lower.
Any bounce will face major resistance at 18,500 - 19,100, where multiple Fib retracements and moving averages converge.
🔥 What’s Next?
If buyers step in at 17,268, we might see a relief rally.
If we break below it, expect 15,771 or even 14,273 to be the next downside targets.
Watch the moving averages closely if we start reclaiming the 9 & 21 EMA, that could be an early sign of a recovery.
Are we heading deeper into a bear market, or is this just a big correction before another bull run? Drop your thoughts below!
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed sharply lower due to the aftermath of tariff impositions. Following a significant gap-down, the index broke below the lower Bollinger Band, intensifying selling pressure. Yesterday’s bearish candlestick confirmed a sell signal, leading to an expanded third wave of selling. The index has now reached the previous support zone near 18,500, with additional volatility expected due to today’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and Fed Chair Powell’s speech.
On the monthly chart, the Nasdaq is forming a lower shadow around the 20-month moving average. Given the sharp decline, if further selling occurs, oversold conditions may trigger a strong rebound, making it risky to chase shorts at this stage. The 240-minute chart also shows a sell signal, with heavy selling pressure continuing. However, this is a risky zone to enter new short positions, so it's advisable to monitor short-term price movements before making a move.
Regardless of whether you take long or short positions, due to high volatility, make sure to set stop-loss levels and adjust leverage to a manageable risk level.
Additionally, the VIX surged, forming a large bullish candle and reaching its March 11 high. With the VIX in an uptrend and a buy signal appearing, further volatility expansion is likely. However, since it has reached a key resistance zone, a short-term pullback in the VIX could allow for a Nasdaq rebound. For the VIX to break above its previous high, a period of consolidation may be necessary. Given the strong buying momentum on both the weekly and monthly charts, this should be taken into consideration when forming a trading strategy.
Crude Oil
Crude oil plunged following the OPEC meeting, where supply increases became a key issue. While oversupply concerns are a factor, the economic slowdown fears from tariffs have also played a major role in the decline. Previously, $68 was considered a strong support level, but oil collapsed from $72 in a steep decline. The final key support lies around $66.
On the daily chart, the MACD and signal line are converging near the zero line, suggesting that once a new wave begins, it could lead to a strong trend movement. Depending on today's session and Monday’s market, oil could see an aggressive breakout in either direction. Current candlestick patterns indicate that the weekly chart remains bearish, meaning holding long positions over the weekend carries significant risk.
The 240-minute chart also confirms a strong sell signal, with MACD plummeting. Oil may form a temporary sideways range near the $66 support, but if this level breaks, selling pressure could intensify. Ensure you manage stop-loss risks carefully in case of further downside.
Gold
Gold declined, reacting to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar's value. The price failed to hold above $3,200 and dropped below the 5-day moving average. Gold has been in a one-way trend, so a bullish approach remains valid unless it breaks below the 10-day MA. However, it has now entered a range-bound phase, and MACD on the daily chart is nearing the signal line, suggesting potential downside risks. The MACD failed to break its February highs, increasing the likelihood of divergence, which could trigger a strong correction if selling intensifies. With rising market volatility and today's NFP release, further wild swings in gold prices are expected.
The 240-minute chart has shown a sell signal, leading to a sharp decline. However, the price has found support near a key resistance-turned-support zone. Since the MACD and signal line remain above the zero line, gold may continue trading within a range in the short term. On shorter timeframes, candlestick volatility is high, so reducing leverage and widening stop ranges would be a prudent strategy.
During periods of extreme market volatility, technical analysis may become less effective, as market sentiment often overrides chart patterns. As always, trade only within your manageable volatility range. The market is always open, so even if you incur losses, there will always be opportunities to recover. Manage risk wisely, and best of luck with your trades today!
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Nasdaq's Drop: A Temporary Rebound Before More Downside?I've been calling for a strong correction in the Nasdaq (and all major U.S. indices) since the start of the year—long before the tax war even began. I warned that a break below 20,000 was likely, with my final target set around 17,500.
And indeed, the index has fallen—regardless of what the so-called "cause" might be. Right now, Nasdaq is trading at 18,400, sitting right at a minor horizontal support zone.
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A Short-Term Rebound Before More Downside?
📉 Overall Bias Remains Bearish – The broader trend still points lower.
📈 Rebound Likely – A push above 19,000 in the coming days wouldn’t be surprising.
⚠️ High-Risk Setup – Going long here is risky, given the current macroeconomic backdrop.
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Trading Strategy: Short-Term vs. Long-Term
✅ For Short-Term Traders & Speculators – A temporary upside correction could offer a buying opportunity.
❌ For Swing & Long-Term Traders – It's better to wait for this rebound to fade and position short for the next leg down.
While a bounce could be on the cards, the bigger picture still points lower—I remain bearish in the long run. 🚀
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Welcome to the real world Uncle Sam!The market can withstand a lot of pressure.
It can handle:
the dawn of "fake news" and outright "lying"
the pollution and "enshitification" of social media
imperialist ideas of a Gaza takeover
partnering with a Russian totalitarian state
overhyping of AI and Nvidia's overpricing
populist politics
unworldly valuations of tech stocks
What it cannot handle is:
Upsetting the world order
Undermining of NATO, Europe, and allies
Starting trade wars with your best friends
Establishing tariffs which will harm the US economy
I love the US stock market, and US animal spirits, it's the best in the world.
But when risk rises, then secure investments like bonds/treasuries become the smart money move. Stocks become "risk off"
Risk is rising, tariffs will pressure inflation, inflation kills economies and markets.
The European defense industry will benefit, the US consumer will pay higher prices.
Higher risk, could mean a lack of confidence, and confidence powers the stock market.
Batton Down the Hatches.
Trading Note: I sold all my US holdings on Tuesday, at the break of the double top neckline (see chart).
My target price is the 2021 high, before the one-year bear market. Its a big drop, I give it a 60-70% chance.
RSI & ROC Negative Medium-term divergences
Of course this could all change if Trump backtracks on trade wars, tariffs and imperialist rhetoric.
But until then, enjoy the ride.
NASDAQ Trade Plan: From 4-Hour Trend to 15-Minute Execution!NAS100 Strategy: Using Fibonacci and Market Structure for Precision!
📊 In this NASDAQ (NAS100) trade idea, I focus on a top-down approach starting with the 4-hour chart. If the 4-hour trend is bullish, I look for higher highs and higher lows. If bearish, I focus on lower highs and lower lows. 🔄 My key strategy is identifying pullbacks into equilibrium—around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level—within any price swing. This is my point of interest.
Once price moves into this area, I shift to the 15-minute chart to refine my entry. 🔍 Here, I wait for a break of structure during the pullback, aligning with the overall trend direction. This approach allows for precise execution while staying in sync with the larger trend. 🚀
⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risk.
NAS100 Analysis: Reversal Predictions Based on Trading MathDear Trader,
Please find attached my analysis of $Subject, which uses mathematical calculations to identify potential reversal times and price levels.
The analysis details projected south and north price targets (horizontal lines on the chart), along with estimated time frames for possible reversals (vertical lines on the chart, accurate to within +/- 1-2 candles). Please note that all times indicated on the chart, including the vertical lines representing potential reversal times, are based on the UTC+4 time zone.
To increase the probability of these analysis, I recommend monitoring the 5-minute and 15-minute charts for the following key reversal candlestick patterns:
Doji’s
Hammer/Inverted Hammer
Double/Triple Bottom/Top
Shooting Star
Morning Star
Hanging Man
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future research.
Regards,
Shunya Trade
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. However, following the announcement of mutual tariffs after the previous session’s close, the index experienced a significant gap-down. On the daily chart, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, generating a sell signal, though confirmation is still pending. If today's session closes with a bearish candle, we must monitor whether this leads to a third wave of selling, signaling further downside.
Due to the gap-down, the price is now significantly distanced from the 3-day and 5-day moving averages (MAs), making it crucial to observe whether the price rebounds intraday or continues to decline further. With the first support level at 19,000 now breached, the next key support is around 18,500. When considering buy positions, it is essential to manage stop-loss risk carefully.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has appeared but is not yet confirmed. If confirmed, it could trigger a third wave of selling pressure, potentially leading to further declines. Given the increased market volatility, a cautious approach is recommended—reducing leverage and only trading at key price levels to minimize potential losses.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher while maintaining a range-bound movement around $72. On the daily chart, the MACD has moved above the signal line and the zero line, establishing a bullish trend. However, following the mutual tariff announcement, the price gapped down, dropping below $70. The strongest support zone lies around $68, making it crucial to observe whether the MACD adjusts and aligns with the signal line before rebounding from this support level to resume the bullish trend.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has appeared, but with multiple support levels nearby and both MACD and the signal line still above the zero line, the market is likely to attempt rebounds. A buy-the-dip approach remains favorable, but caution is necessary given today’s OPEC meeting, which could lead to increased volatility.
Gold
Gold closed higher, finding support at the 5-day MA. Following the mutual tariff announcement, the price initially gapped up to around 3,200, before pulling back. As previously mentioned, the upward target for this wave is around 3,216, with strong buying momentum continuing. On the daily chart, gold is trading between the 5-day MA and the upper Bollinger Band, maintaining a one-way bullish structure.
A bullish strategy remains favorable unless the daily close falls below the 10-day MA. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD remains above the zero line and previously attempted to break above the signal line but has since pulled back. Since buying momentum is still present, if the price finds support at a key supply zone, another leg higher could occur, potentially triggering a golden cross in the MACD and leading to a third wave of buying pressure.
Short positions should be approached with caution, and given the increased market volatility, risk management is crucial. Whether buying or selling, stop-loss discipline is essential to manage potential risks.
Market volatility has surged since the pre-market session due to Trump’s mutual tariff policies. Volatility is both an opportunity and a risk for traders. Do not let greed lead to losses in a market that doesn’t match your trading style. Adjust position sizes accordingly and only trade within your comfort zone. The market is always open. Do not focus solely on today—take a steady and stable approach to trading.
Wishing you a successful trading day!
If you like my analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
For additional strategies for today, check out my profile. Thank you!
MON100 : Going long for about 5% of the net capitalTook two positions of 2.5% of the net capital each, at various levels, summing up the total holding in the scrip for about 5% of the net capital. Will be targeting the all time high for a percentage move of about 20% from the current average entry price.
Might consider adding on to the position if price dips and reaches the next critical buying zone, after evaluating the fundamental and sentimental scenarios prevailing globally at the time.
📢📢📢
If my perspective changes or if I gather additional fundamental data that influences my views, I will provide updates accordingly.
Thank you for following along with this journey, and I remain committed to sharing insights and updates as my trading strategy evolves. As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions or comments.
Other posts related to this particular position and scrip, if any, will be attached underneath. Do check those out too.
Disclaimer : The analysis shared here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in all markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It’s essential to conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this analysis are solely mine. It’s important to note that I am not a SEBI registered analyst, so the analysis provided does not constitute formal investment advice under SEBI regulations.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. Although a sell signal briefly appeared in the previous session, the MACD failed to form a bearish crossover with the signal line, instead finding support and rebounding. The index strongly bounced from its low, reaching the 5-day moving average (MA) before closing with an upper wick.
Since the MACD is supporting the signal line and potentially resuming an upward trend, the key level to watch is whether the price can break through the strong resistance at 19,625–19,675. As long as the MACD does not confirm a bearish crossover, it is advisable to trade within the range.
On the 240-minute chart, the index rebounded from the bottom while generating a buy signal. However, with strong resistance around 19,675, if the price pulls back once more, it could either form a double bottom or resume a strong upward move from a single-bottom structure.
Although the MACD has crossed above the signal line (golden cross) on the 240-minute chart, it is still far from the zero line, suggesting that further pullbacks may occur after additional gains. It is important to avoid chasing the price and instead focus on buying dips at key support levels while maintaining a range-trading approach.
Crude Oil
Oil closed flat, facing resistance at $72. On the daily chart, the price broke above the 240-day MA and is now testing resistance from a previous supply zone. It is likely to consolidate within a range while pulling up the short-term moving averages.
The daily MACD has moved above the zero line, lifting the signal line as well. If the price remains in a range-bound consolidation, the signal line will eventually rise above the zero line, further supporting a bullish structure.
Key upcoming events include today’s oil inventory report and tomorrow’s OPEC meeting, which could act as catalysts for either a continuation of the rally or a pullback. Since there is still a gap between the 3-day and 5-day MAs, range trading remains the best approach.
On the 240-minute chart, strong buying momentum continues, but given the heavy supply at previous resistance levels, a period of sideways movement or a pullback is likely.
If a bearish crossover occurs on the 240-minute chart, oil could drop below $70. For now, monitor whether the uptrend can hold, and if it does, consider trading within the range while managing downside risks.
Gold
Gold closed lower after an overshoot to the upside. On the daily chart, the price was in an overextended high position, with a significant gap from the 3-day and 5-day MAs. After a brief rally, selling pressure emerged, leading to a bearish close.
Since gold has yet to properly test the 5-day MA, a pullback to this level remains a possibility. However, the daily MACD is still trending upward, and liquidity remains strong, increasing the likelihood of a one-way rally unless the 10-day MA is broken. Short positions should be approached with caution.
On the 240-minute chart, a bearish crossover has occurred, leading to a pullback from the high. However, since the uptrend remains intact, even if the MACD crosses below the signal line, the fact that it is still above the zero line suggests a potential rebound.
The best strategy is to focus on buying dips at key support levels, as the market is likely to consolidate before resuming a trend move. Be cautious when trading within a range-bound market.
With Friday’s U.S. employment report approaching, market volatility remains elevated. Trump’s tariff policies are increasing concerns about inflation and a potential economic slowdown. The interpretation of upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining market direction.
Risk management remains essential, so trade cautiously and stay prepared.
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