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Nasdaq100

The Implications of Nasdaq 100 RebalancingCME: Micro Nasdaq 100 Futures ( CME_MINI:MNQ1! ), E-Mini S&P Technology Select Sector Futures ( CME_MINI:XAK1! ) The Nasdaq 100 index tracks the 100 largest non-financial stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Since its inception over 38 years ago, it has become the world’s preeminent large-cap growth index. So far in 2023, Nasdaq 100 has surged 42%, far outpacing the 18.7% gain from the S&P 500 and the 6.4% return by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This big rally has prompted the Nasdaq to implement an index "Special Rebalance". What’s going on here? Nasdaq-100: Market-cap weighted Index with a Twist In the world of stock market indices, the two most common construction methodologies are equal-weighted and market-cap-weighted. The Nasdaq 100 is market-cap weighted, meaning the weight of each component is based on its market cap as a percentage of the aggregate market cap of the index. The higher the market cap, the bigger the weight. Nasdaq performs regular quarterly weight adjustments in March, June, September, and December. To prevent the index from becoming too top-heavy and unbalanced, Nasdaq imposes weight limits in its Nasdaq Index Weight Adjustment Guidelines. • No security weight may exceed 14% of the index. • If the aggregate weight of the five largest market capitalizations is more than 40%, they will be adjusted to 38.5%. • No security outside the largest five market cap companies may have a final index weight exceeding 4.4%. The list below shows index weight as of June 30th, the last quarterly adjustment, and the most recent market cap as of July 21st, for the top ten companies in Nasdaq 100: • No. 1, Microsoft (MSFT): market cap $2,556bn, index weight 12.92% • No. 2, Apple (AAPL): $3,019bn (12.57%) • No. 3, Nvidia (NVDA): $1,094bn (6.94%) • No. 4, Amazon (AMZN): $1,334bn (6.85%) • No. 5, Tesla (TSLA): $830bn (4.25%) • No. 6, Meta (META): $756bn (4.22%) • No. 7, Alphabet Class A (GOOGL): $1,560bn (3.71%) • No. 8, Alphabet Class C (GOOGL): $1,599bn (3.64%) • No. 9, Broadcom (AVGO): $373bn (2.40%) • No. 10, PepsiCo (PEP): $263bn (1.70%) • Top-5: market cap $8,833bn, index weight: 43.53% • Top-10: market cap $13,384bn, index weight: 59.20% • Nasdaq 100 (^NDX): aggregate market cap $25,990bn The Top-5 has already breached the 40% mark and will be brought down to 38.5% in the “Special Rebalance” to address the concerns of over-concentration: “A Special Rebalance may be conducted at any time based on the weighting restrictions described in the Index Rebalance Procedure if it is determined to be necessary to maintain the integrity of the Index.” How will this Rebalancing Impact Investors? According to the Nasdaq, over $500 billion in exchange traded funds (ETF) are tied to the Nasdaq-100, including Invesco QQQ ETF, iShares Nasdaq-100 UCITS ETF and ProShares UltraPro QQQ, just to name a few. If each fund tracks the Nasdaq 100 closely and responds to the rebalancing immediately, the Top-5 stocks in the portfolio will be reduced by 5% (from 43.5% to 38.5%). This would create short-term selling pressure in tens of billions of dollars. To put the figures in context: although the Top-5 companies have an aggregate market cap of nearly $9 trillion, they have a modest daily float. Based on my calculation, the average daily transaction value over the past three months was only $77 billion, less than 1% of their market valuation, with 337 million shares changing hands. Leading up to the rebalancing, we are seeing larger trade volume and higher volatility: • On July 21st, Microsoft had a trade volume of 69.3 million shares, vs. its 3-month average volume of 29.3 million shares; • Nvidia: trade volume 96.2m vs. 3-mo average 49.3m • Alphabet: trade volume 55.5m vs. 3-mo average 26.4m • Amazon: trade volume 69.5m vs. 3-mo average 63.6m Since peaking at 15,932 on July 19th, Nasdaq 100 has trended down in the last three trading sessions, currently trading at 15,455 on the morning of July 24th. Arbitrage Opportunity between Technology Indexes The Nasdaq 100 rebalancing is a unique issue with the Nasdaq 100 index. It has nothing to do with the fundamentals of these companies and has no impact on other Tech sector stock indexes which also include the same component companies. The S&P Technology Select Sector (XAK) has over 90% correlation with Nasdaq 100 (MNQ) historically. The former includes Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia, but not Alphabet or Amazon. In the past five years, XAK outperformed MNQ by 40%. In the past five trading days, MNQ underperformed XAK by 1%, likely due to the impact of the Nasdaq-100 rebalancing. In the long run, Nasdaq 100 rebalance will dilute the impact of the largest stocks in the index. Strong growth in Big Tech will be fully represented in XAK but capped in MNQ. This, in my opinion, would result in a widening spread between XAK and MNQ. XAK futures contract is based on $100 x S&P Select Sector Technology Index. At 1,786.6, each XAK contract has a notional value of $178,660 on July 21st. CME requires an initial margin of $9,500. MNQ contract is based on $2 x Nasdaq 100 Index. At 15,555, each MNQ has a notional value of $31,110. CME requires an initial margin of $1,680. Based on the relative notional values, someone bullish on the spread could establish a trade with 1 long XAK and 6 short MNQ. Using the last five days as an example: • If XAK increases by 1%, the long end of the trade would show a gain of $1,787 (17.9 x 100). If, during the same period, MNQ is flat, the short end would have no gain or loss. This spread combination would have a net gain of $1,787. • Using initial margins of $19,580 as a cost base, this equates to a one-week return of +9.1%. For comparison, if a trader invests in a Nasdaq 100 ETF and the index gains 1%, the return would also be 1%. Trading in futures comes with a leverage that would supercharge the gain if you were on the right direction. The spread trade would loss money if MNQ has a stronger performance than XAK. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:XAK1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
9
A Break above 14020 Could change The big SidewaysThe number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to 242 thousand in the week ending May 13th, down from an 18-month high of 264 thousand and below market expectations of 254 thousand. The latest reading indicated the labor market in the United States remains relatively tight, potentially leading to upward pressure on wages and providing the Federal Reserve with an opportunity to implement further interest rate hikes in its efforts to combat inflation. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US increased to -10.4 in May of 2023 from a nearly three-year low of -31.3 in April, and better than market forecasts of -19.8. General manufacturing activity in Philadelphia continued to decline overall but at at the slowest pace in four months. New orders (-8.9 vs -22.7) and shipments (-4.7 vs -7.3) rose from last month but remained negative while employment declined (-8.6 vs -0.2). The price indexes remained below long-run averages, with the prices received index declining further (-7 vs -3.3) The survey’s future indexes continued to reflect muted expectations for growth (-10.3 vs -1.5), with almost 37% of the firms expecting a decrease in activity over the next six months. US futures were mixed on Thursday, with contracts on the Dow Jones down nearly 30 points while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were above the flatline. Shares of Walmart were up 1.7% in premarket trading after the retailer raised its full-year forecast and earnings topped forecasts. At the same time, traders become increasingly optimistic the debt ceiling standoff would soon be solved and the US will avoid a default. Also, regional banks are also expected to extend gains when markets open. However, the latest data showed weekly claims fell more-than-expected last week, triggering fears of more Fed interest rate hikes.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by DaveBrascoFX
8
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis Higher Timeframe (22/07/2023)In the weekly, the NASDAQ looks bullish and might be preparing for a Wave III to the upside. However, the minimum requirements for a Wave II to the downside were not fulfilled. As long as we do not take out the Wave I high, it could be that we still make a new low as a Wave II. In the daily and 4h, it looks like the upward structure as a wave (3) might finish soon. Investors should wait for a good pullback before buying again. Currently, as an investor, we are in an area to take profit.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by AndyCuckoo
US100 Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaTaking a look at the US100 NASDAQ At the moment. We can see that this has traded into a key monthly and weekly resistance level. The market is well and truly overextended and could be due for a correction. In the video we cover the trend, price action, market structure and a possible trade idea towards the end of the video. As always everything is explained in detail throughout the video. Please understand that this is not to be construed as financial advice.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by fxtraderanthony
QQQ: Looking Out for a 20-40% Pull BackThe NASDAQ100 is currently sitting at the 0.886 and 1.618 PCZs of big Bearish Shark and Bearish Butterfly patterns as the indicators hover around the overbought zones; we don't exactly have much confirmation yet that these PCZs will hold, but it seems like it wouldn't be a bad idea to position against the QQQ early on via some SQQQ monthly calls and perhaps getting Bearish on some of the top stocks within the index such as NVDA, TSLA, and MSFT. Being conservative, I will only be looking for it to come back to the common Fibonacci Retracement zones below, but it's also possible that this ends up being a macro top; for the time being, that doesn't really matter because as of right now, it looks quite Bearish. On a side note, the VIX also looks like it's been preparing to spike up for a few months now and the targets for such a spike are pretty massive, as seen here:
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by RizeSenpai
QQQ The AI-Powered Future: A Bullish Case for Long-Term Options If you haven`t bought the Santa Rally: or my 2023 forecast: Then investing in long-term options on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) with a strike price of $420 and an expiration date of 2024-6-21 presents a compelling opportunity for bullish investors. The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and the ever-growing technology sector is set to ignite the next revolution, propelling QQQ to outperform the S&P 500 and deliver substantial returns, in my opinion. Now let's explore the factors that make this investment thesis a promising one. AI-Driven Technological Advancements: AI is undoubtedly the most transformative technology of our era. It has already revolutionized various industries and continues to penetrate new sectors, creating endless opportunities for innovation and growth. Companies listed on the Nasdaq 100 are at the forefront of AI adoption, leveraging its capabilities to enhance their products, services, and operations. As AI-driven technologies continue to disrupt traditional models and unlock new revenue streams, QQQ's constituent companies are poised to benefit significantly. Tech Sector Dominance in the Nasdaq 100: The Nasdaq 100 predominantly comprises technology-focused companies that have demonstrated remarkable growth potential and resilience. With the ongoing global digitization and the increasing demand for technology-based solutions, the Nasdaq 100 is well-positioned to outperform the broader market. As the technology sector continues to flourish, investors can expect these companies to deliver above-average returns over the long term. I believe QQQ will reach $450 by the end of 2024. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by TopgOptions