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The Slight Depression - Why NFP Numbers aren't tha NB* with TechWhy jobs added or lost won’t have a big effect on the tech stock markets in the future Every month, I get asked about NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls). This is a barometer that comes out on the 1stFriday of every month. It tells us one thing. Whether the number of jobs were added or lost in the US economy for the previous month (excluding farming jobs). Well let’s take the NFP number coming out today (1 September 2023) Prior was 187,000 and the Forecast is 170,000. So already, they are guessing there’ll be 17,000 less jobs added this month compared to last month. In the past I would say, anything less than 170K might be a cause of concern to the stock market and companies (especially in tech) as less people were assigned jobs. But this month, I have a shift in mind and thoughts. If NFP comes out worse than expected… I don't necessarily think this will have a bad effect on the NASDAQ. In fact, the Nasdaq is showing strong signs of upside to come in the next few months. Between the Falling Wedge, the Price above 200MA, the price jumping from the prior uptrend - It looks like the NASDAQ wants to shoot up! And companies like Nvidia, META, Alphabet, Microsoft, IBM and even Tesla, I believe, will do just fine cutting jobs and building their empires simultaneously. And whether the NFP drops or rises, NASDAQ along with tech stocks will do just fine. Now let's talk about something a little more solemn. I have a wild thought of the day. In the era of accelerated technological advancements and revolutionary influence of AI (Artificial Intelligence), there is a paradigm shift happening between the biologics and the non-biologics. Sure tech companies will need a strong workforce, but I don’t think they need an excessive amount of employees like in the past. In the AI era with new AI developments, deep and machine learning to optimise and maximise operations and profits… I think we WILL undoubtedly see a major disruption in the employee force. But here is where it gets scary… Those who adapt, grow and evolve will make it. Those who don't might, fall behind and into what I call. The Slight Depression This is where things are getting tough and more expensive. · Salaries are staying the same while prices are going up. · Groceries you have to think twice when buying cereals. · Flights are crazy. · Rates and taxes are just ridiculous. · Some restaurants are out of their minds. · Don’t start with mortgages, bonds, insurance and medical aid. · Filling up a tank of petrol is showing off nowadays! Clearly, there is a shift between the lower and upper class. Where I truly believe the middle class is falling away very quickly. Soon it’ll be lower and upper class! No in between and that scares me! So… The onus now lies YOU. You really need to adapt, adopt and integrate to this rapidly evolving landscape. Foe examples, if you possess the skills to work alongside AI, harness its potential, and contribute to its development, you’ll stand a chance in the job market. If you continue to learn new tricks, no matter how old or young of a dog you are. If you continue to upskill yourself. If you invest in yourself (physically, mentally and financially). You’ll have the upper hand. What are your thoughts? Do you think a lower NFP number is bad for tech stocks and an index like the NASDAQ? Do you think The Slight Depression is among us? Answer yes or no.
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Timonrosso
NASDAQ100 LOND TERM SELLING IDEA Hello Traders In This Chart NASQAD100 HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today NAQI00 analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (NASQAD100 market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NAQ100 Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by ForexPlanet20
1
Tech performance after peak valuation?Tech stocks have been soaring, but can this outperformance be sustained or will this artificial intelligence (AI) driven boom mimic the internet explosion and subsequent bust of the 2000-2002 period? Today, gains in the sector are concentrated in large companies like Nvidia and Meta, with year-to-date (YTD) returns standing at 225% and 148% respectively, subsequently causing the Nasdaq 100 to outperform the S&P 500 by around 25% YTD1, mostly due to its extra weighting in the Tech sector (~60% vs ~27%)2. This rally has been accompanied by a significant expansion in valuation multiples, specifically the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. Particularly relevant for the Tech sector, the P/S ratio offers a way to evaluate companies that may not yet be profitable but are generating sales—a common scenario among new and innovative firms. For many in the Tech sector today, this ratio has soared to unprecedented levels. At the end of March 2023, Nvidia became the company with the highest P/S ratio in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices. It has only increased since then, reaching a P/S ratio of over 40, which is based on the trailing 12 months of sales. Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report, however, did forecast a large (60%) jump in future sales, so analysts are now pricing in future sales which brings down the multiple to 25 times expected sales over next 12 months3. This leads us to our key question: based on a historical sample of companies that have reached these valuations in the past, what are the chances that Nvidia can continue to outperform? The research in this piece will explore the implications of high P/S valuations, which will be defined as 25 or over (coincident with Nvidia’s price over expected sales), on future company performance. P/S ratios: from rarity to normality From the late 1960s to the early 1990s, it was uncommon to find a company with a P/S ratio over 25. When it did happen, it was one or two firms each year, and the percentage of the total market cap they represented was negligible. Today, high P/S ratios have become routine, especially in the Tech sector: is this the new normal? The tech bubble of 1999-2002 saw a drastic surge in companies with high P/S ratios. In 1999, there were 56 companies with a P/S ratio over 25, representing over 6% of the total market cap. The trend peaked in 2000, with 113 companies and over 10% of the total market cap. For most of the 2000s, several companies each year reported a P/S ratio over 25, making up a small but not insignificant portion of the total market cap. The COVID-19 era of 2019-2023 saw another surge in high P/S ratios. In 2020, there were 32 companies with P/S ratios over 25, making up 1.10% of the total market cap. The trend extended into 2021 when 44 companies contributed to 2.46% of the total market cap. This shift was partly propelled by an influx of high-profile initial public offerings (IPOs), as newly public companies often command high valuations. The momentum shows no signs of waning in 2023, with over a dozen companies already boasting a 25 P/S in Q1 alone—the majority of which are tech stocks. Dynamics of top P/S stocks Within the universe of the top 500 largest US companies by market capitalisation, 99 companies have reached the distinction of having the highest P/S ratio of all companies since the 1960s. Nvidia now holds this title today. The Tech sector takes the lion's share of the highest multiple stocks, representing 27.3% of the companies, followed by the Health and Energy sectors, accounting for 22.2% and 17.2% respectively. To understand the dynamics of the companies with the top P/S ratio, we examined their performance over various periods following the point at which they claimed the top spot. We scrutinised their returns over the subsequent 1, 3, 5-year periods, and until the end of sample or March 2023. An interesting pattern emerged. In the year following the point when a stock takes the top spot for the P/S ratio for the first time, these companies continued outperforming—on average beating the S&P 500 by almost 1.5%. But their momentum falters in the years that follow; within the next three years, their average annual return declines to -4.4%, and the five-year average annual return fell further to -1.5%. Notably, the markets were annualising over 9% over those next 3-5 years, so their under-performance versus the market was more than double digits. When we take the entire history of these stocks, their average return still falls short of the market by over 12% a year. Even when we break it down by sector, it seems as though once a company reaches the position of ‘top P/S’, it struggles to maintain its momentum and keep up with the market. Tech and Health sectors, those with the most companies appearing in this top spot, don’t even outperform in the short term, but have negative returns on average. Declining odds of out-performance Looking at all 2691 companies that have been in the largest 500 at some point, the tables below show how frequently companies reach a specific P/S threshold, and the odds that it will outperform the market in the next 1,3,5,10, and 20 years. For the 231 companies that have reached a P/S over 25, they only outperformed the market in the next year 21% of the time, with a median relative return of -36%. Over longer horizons, this percentage worsens, reaching 9% over the next 3 years, and 4% over the next 20 years. For higher P/S ratios (>40) it’s even less likely to outperform the market on all time frames. The odds become stacked against you having a winning long-term stock at these valuations. The market has seen a shift in recent years, with high price-to-sales (P/S) ratios becoming increasingly common, particularly in the Tech sector. Our analysis suggests that an overemphasis on high P/S stocks may falter in the long run, as it may prove difficult for these companies to sustain the rapid growth required to justify these valuations and continue their performance trajectory. Sources 1 Source: Performance data is referenced from Yahoo Finance, with YTD referring to 2023 through 21 July 2023. 2 Source: Respective S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq 100 Index factsheets, with current data as of 30 June 2023. 3 Source: Investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2023/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2024/default.aspx This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NASDAQ:NDX
by aneekaguptaWTE
Tsla: The sequence has changed #Tsla: The sequence has changed. The earlier updated chart's sequence has been change. Tsla is seems to have formed a leading diagonal, where wave 4 enters the area of wave 1. It has retraced more than 50% for wave 4. Now wave 5 may or may not go beyond the wave 3 high. When a leading diagonal is formed the price retrace badly after wave 5 completion. But the longer term horizon has no problem. This is purely an educational idea not a trading advice. Please consult your financial advisor before any trade execution. Thank you keep following for such updates and new charts or comment for any chart to be viewed for elliott wave patterns. Keep faith on you no on me...!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by imkhushal
2
NASDAQ Bank Weekly ChartNASDAQ Bank's market behavior is currently unfolding within the context of a cyclic wave pattern, specifically in its fourth wave. This cyclic wave pattern is a representation of the bank's price movements over time, and it is comprised of various phases that can be broken down for analysis. Starting from its inception, the bank's journey has been marked by significant trends known as primary waves. The first of these primary waves, primary wave 1, was completed in April 1987. This was a period of notable growth or decline that had a discernible impact on the bank's stock prices. Following this, primary wave 2 occurred in October 1990, representing another distinct phase of movement. Primary wave 3 followed suit, transpiring in April 1998, with its own unique characteristics that influenced the bank's market performance. Subsequently, primary wave 4 emerged in February 2000, accompanied by primary wave 5, which concluded in December 2006. These five primary waves collectively constitute what is referred to as wave I within the larger cyclic wave pattern. This initial cycle, termed cyclic wave I, reached its peak in January 2007, signifying a culmination of upward movement. However, as market dynamics are characterized by both upward and downward trends, a subsequent downward movement, known as cycle wave II, occurred from January 2007 to February 2009. This phase might have been influenced by broader economic factors or specific developments within the banking industry. Continuing the sequence, within the context of cyclic wave III, five new primary waves unfolded, each shaping the bank's trajectory in distinct ways. Following the completion of these primary waves, there was a retracement during primary wave IV, which spanned from an earlier point until May 2023. Retracements often represent periods of consolidation or correction in the market. As of the present moment, the bank's market behavior indicates the initiation of wave V within the cyclic degree. This implies that the bank is entering a new phase of market activity, and its price movements are anticipated to be influenced by a fresh set of factors and trends. In conclusion, the bank's journey within the cyclic wave pattern is a dynamic interplay of upward and downward trends, with each wave representing a distinct phase of market behavior. Understanding these patterns can assist investors and analysts in making informed decisions based on historical trends and anticipated future movements. Disclaimer: The following explanation is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market behaviors are subject to various factors and can be unpredictable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:BANK
by imkhushal
NAS100 US100 Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaThe NASDAQ US100 has reached a significant resistance level and is presently exhibiting signs of being over extended. Within the video, we delve into a range of crucial elements related to technical analysis. These include evaluating the prevailing market trend, examining the structure of the market, analysing price action, and potentially identifying a trade prospect as we approach the conclusion of the video. It's important to note that the video provides a comprehensive and thorough explanation of all these factors. As a reminder, the content is intended for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by fxtraderanthony