Nasdaq100
Current Pull-Back: A Perspective Using NASDAQ 100 WeeklyCME_MINI:NQ1! has had the sharpest pullback in last couple of weeks. The Semiconductor Industry NASDAQ:SOXX has been the largest driver in this selloffs. In this Trend Analysis, I tried to draw a perspective as to how deep this pullback could be given Support and Resistance areas that stood the test of time in recent years. I used Weekly chart to gain a broader perspective of where the index will end up in coming months.
It is easy to establish that the TOP of the Current Rally (~16,100), i.e., the Resistance has been determined by the Start of the Recent Bear Market in 2022. Which technically started with the collapse of the Post Pandemic Rally in early January, 2022. This is the most important Control Level that the current market needs to break for a further rally in the future.
The Bear Market in 2022 was strictly bound by the Wedge Resistance as we can see. The same phenomenon can also be shown by simply drawing an Anchored VWAP from the All Time High. Throughout the course of the Bear Trend CME_MINI:NQ1! could not break above the AVWAP. After the market established a bottom between October and December of 2022, it finally broke above the Wedge in the last week of January, 2023. We can call this the beginning of the current Bull Market. NASDAQ eventually broke the AVWAP in the last week of March 2023 to further confirm the Bull Trend. The AVWAP has worked as a Support Level since then until the market boosted up in May.
Now coming back to the Current Pull-back, It is not hard to identify that there is a possible Support Area at the bottom of the range (~14,775) which the Current Bull Trend has established. If this Support Level is held then the projected size of the pullback from the top will be approximately 8.0 %. Current price action has confirmed a breach of the Short Term EMA cloud in the Weekly chart. In the Daily chart it came down below the 50 day Moving Average which indicates Short Term bearish tendency. If CME_MINI:NQ1! doesn't take support at the Range Bottom, then we could think of the Long Term EMA cloud as secondary Support Area. The next Support Area could be the AVWAP from ATH. For now, there is no reason to believe that there will be a lingering pull-back in the market going forward to start another Bear Market. Our best "hope" is that the market will take support and continue the Bull Trend in coming months.
Please note that historically, in Pre-election years, August and September had been the most bearish months. This write-up is solely based on Technical and Trend Analysis to figure out the best case scenario.
Thanks for Reading!
Nasdaq -> -20% Massive Drop Ahead!Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Nas100 💪
Looking at the macro view on the monthly timframe you can see that at the moment the Nasdaq is retesting massive resistance of the 10+ years rising channel formation so I do expect a monthly push lower.
With the recent strong rally on the Nasdaq it is quite likely that we will see at least a retest of the 0.382 weekly fibonacci retracement level which is then maybe acting as a first strong support area.
My last analysis on the Nasdaq perfectly played out with the Nasdaq breaking below the daily bullish trendline and creating a double top in the process - therefore everything is currently looking quite bearish and I do expect more daily downside.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
US100 Bearish Move hello traders so after doing a quick analysis on us100 it appears the it might be going bearish next week.
first we have the price closed below a raising trendline with a inversed hammer on one of the candles.
it also closed below a support level.
we have the rsi indicating bearish signs .
this is just my personal opinion not financial advice trade safe !
US100 NAS100 Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn this video, we closely examine the US100 NASDAQ, which is currently experiencing a distinct downtrend. We don't see any indications of the trend shifting in the near future. Additionally, we delve into the potential of a pullback and identify an optimal entry point short for the NAS100.
Please note: This content is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice.
$QQQ Bullish Parallel Uptrend Bullish Parallel Uptrend About to Break Lower, Wait and See at the Moment
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) has been trading in a parallel uptrend since the beginning of the year. The price has been making higher highs and higher lows, creating a series of parallel channels. This pattern is often seen as a bullish sign, as it suggests that the trend is in place and is likely to continue.
However, the QQQ is starting to show signs of weakness. The price has been unable to break through the upper trend line of the parallel channel, and it has started to make lower highs. This suggests that the bulls are starting to lose momentum.
I am waiting for the QQQ to break through the lower trend line of the parallel channel before making any trading decisions. If the price breaks through the lower trend line, it would be a sign that the uptrend is losing momentum and a bearish reversal could be in the works. However, if the price bounces off the lower trend line, it would be a sign that the bulls are still in control and the uptrend is intact.
I will continue to monitor the QQQ and will update my trading plan accordingly. In the meantime, I recommend that traders wait and see what happens before making any trades.
Here are some additional things to keep in mind:
The QQQ is starting to show signs of weakness.
The price has been unable to break through the upper trend line of the parallel channel.
I am waiting for the QQQ to break through the lower trend line of the parallel channel before making any trading decisions.
If the price breaks through the lower trend line, it would be a sign that the uptrend is losing momentum and a bearish reversal could be in the works.
However, if the price bounces off the lower trend line, it would be a sign that the bulls are still in control and the uptrend is intact.
Update with full count TSLAElliott Wave Theory , which is a technical analysis approach used to analyze and forecast financial market trends. The text seems to be describing the potential Elliott Wave pattern of Tesla's stock price movement.
AT the low of $101.86 Tesla has formed its bottom, which is higher degree wave II .
This means that at a price level of 101.86, Tesla's stock reached what is considered a significant low point. This low point is identified as a higher-degree "wave II." In Elliott Wave Theory , higher-degree waves are larger in scale and represent broader market trends.
Thereafter it formed higher high and higher lows and formed miner degree waves 1, 2, 3, and it is under miner degree 4 as of now and 4th wave seems to be under completion.
After the higher-degree wave II, Tesla's stock price started to form a series of smaller movements: higher highs and higher lows. These smaller movements are referred to as "minor degree waves." Tesla has completed minor degree waves 1, 2, and 3, and is currently in the process of completing minor degree wave 4. This indicates a series of price movements within the broader trend.
We expect the higher degree (1) will complete near the minor degree 5th wave target of $335.
Once minor degree wave 4 is completed, the stock's price will likely move upward, forming a higher-degree wave (1). This higher-degree wave (1) is expected to reach a target price of $335. In other words, the stock's price is predicted to rise in a significant movement.
After completing wave (1), it will move for wave (2) with a target price of $191.
Once the higher-degree wave (1) is completed, there will likely be a corrective movement in the form of higher-degree wave (2). This corrective wave (2) is projected to have a target price of $191, indicating a temporary decrease in the stock's price after the expected rise of wave (1).
Disclaimer: Financial markets are subject to significant volatility, uncertainty, and various external factors that can impact price movements. Any investment decisions made based on the information in the chart are at your own risk. Before making any financial decisions, it is strongly recommended that you conduct thorough research, seek advice from qualified financial professionals, and consider a range of reliable sources.
The use of technical analysis tools such as Elliott Wave Theory involves a degree of subjectivity and interpretation, and past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry inherent risks, and there are no guarantees of specific outcomes or returns.