US100 ( High Probability SELL Setup SOON ) * Here we can see the Next Moves for US100 today,
* We're expecting the Mini Move ( PullBack ) before the continuation of the Down Trend,
* We're Using STF for a cClearer View of our Analysis, Therefore we can't predict the duration of the moves,
* We've got a Major Fundamental News today ( NFP ) at 1:30pm ( GMT + 00:00 ) London Time,
* Keep a close eye on Nasdaq100 ( US100 ) Today,
* Happy pip hunting traders.
* FX KILLA *
Nasdaq100analysis
Nasdaq Analysis 12.01.2023Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Nasdaq100 What Now Episode 153Brand new day. It's "Wednesday" in Nasdaq100. Not the best days.. especially since the news mostly interupts. The lady is still in a downtrend-range.
One that is filled with, Lhs and Lls. My bias remains bearish till a CIS (change in structure) which is: a break past Lhs and new Hhs/Hls are visible.
Let the market decide, always!..
December: 2W (2 trades)
Nasdaq100 What Now Episode 152Nasdaq100 is now in a "Bearish range" one that consists of Lhs and an equal Ll.
The lady can only continue the ride if Lls are broken and new Lhs are formed.
However, since there's a little tension at the Ll area the bulls can still troop in. Today, my bias is in line with the current trend and that is:
The bearish side. Let's see if I get a trigger today.
December: 1W (1 trade)
Nasdaq: On the riseNasdaq is currently taking baby steps along the orange target zone between 11 809 and 11 463 points and is expected to move out of the orange zone to climb right into the blue target zone. Moving further North, the blue wave (iii) should be completed in the blue zone between 12 657 and 13 429 points before pushing the course back South. After that minor correction, the trend should move up in the long term to complete we pink wave .
NASDAQ Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022NASDAQ Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022
We can see that this week our volatility is at 4.42% which declined from 4.6% last week.
Currently according to ATR we are on 89th percentile, and according to VIX we are on 77th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is a very volatile market.
Now, based on the implied volatility data that we have for this week, lets look into further details.
We can see that currently there is 23.6% chance, that our candle is going to close at the end of the week either above/below the next channel
TOP: 11280
BOT: 10300
This can also be translated as a 76.4% chance that the market is going to move within this established range.
At the same, looking at the previous high/low values of the candle, and taking into account the entire history available of data, we can expect that there is going to be a
36% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of 11600
66% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of 10650
QQQ/M2SL Where does the economy stand important areas to watchHello Traders,
This is somewhat an educational post as well as some TA with possible directions to watch for.
update on #QQQ (#Nasdaq 100 ETF) vs #M2SL seasonally adjusted money flow in billions.
When indexing this chart to a scale of 100 we may have a clearer picture of what is going to play out, important areas to watch for that may present opportunity and where the blood may shed. At the time of posting the last update, the index was around 111.11 and since raised all the way up to 133.62 hitting the monthly 20 EMA and coming right back down to a very important #support line dating all the way back to the .com bubble in 99’, as well as bringing action closer to the 13 year Support trend line (white ascending trend line) starting back at the bottom of the market in 09’. Which this recent pullback Nov 2021’ to present (35.28%) has been the largest correction experienced since that crash in 2007-2009 crash (58.03%) due to the #PrimeRateDebauchery ushered in via the #HousingMarketCollapse. If you look back to the #dotComBubble collapse starting in 99’ and the twin towers attacks which came shortly after you’ll see these pullbacks were nothing in comparison to the pullback (86.43%).
Now that we have had a small history lesson about the chart its time to dive into this a bit deeper knowing some of the numbers and seeing the charts.
To give a better understanding of how #M2 #money #supply seasonally adjusted works here is the definition from the #Fed #FRED data.
“Billions of Dollars Seasonally Adjusted, M2 includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money #market #mutual funds (MMMFs). Seasonally adjusted M2 is computed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.”
To understand M2 you must understand M1 so, here is the definition from the Fed FRED data.
"Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.
Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. #Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. #government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve #float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of #OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other #liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.
For more information on the H.6 release changes and the #regulatory #amendment that led to the creation of the other liquid deposits component and its inclusion in the M1 monetary aggregate, see the H.6 announcements and #Technical Q&As posted on December 17, 2020."
So understanding the money that flows in the US in comparison to the QQQ (the Index that includes the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq based on market cap.) We go into a deep dive comparing the charts with prior data and technical analysis along with what we see in the economy now bringing us to a point of understanding when this market may turn around or get much worse.
As you see on the chart we have 3 main points of support, one in which we are currently at right now with the 13 year trend support slightly under where the action is at present on the chart. It is important to note, with more money potentially being printed via inflation stimulus packages in the near future this could likely prop this chart up a bit. The areas we want to watch for a bounce is where we are currently at and slightly below where the white trend line is holding. Personally I do not this this looks like a top to a market with a large impending crash as most think will be coming but, it is important we keep a level head and a neutral bias until we have confirmed data telling is the direction we are heading. Simply put, we must hold this trend line to continue this growth structure of the last 13 years. A good indication that is coming is chart action breaking above the yellow down trend line on the chart bullishly. Any break below the large ascending trend could mean for a few years of sideways markets and lower lows in the near future, which we will most likely see a slight bit of regardless in the next few weeks.
I will come back and update this chart in a month or two... of when it becomes relative soon. Keep an eye on these major trends and supports in the mean time and most of all have a GREEN week!
Savvy
NDX 100NASDAQ:NDX
The NDX 100 is showing a strong momentum to the upside.
It could reach highs that was previously reached.
Nasdaq: Banana LeafDid you know just how multifunctional banana leaves are? They can be used for cooking and packaging and to serve dishes, and can also be employed as roof or fence. Nasdaq is currently wrapped in a big green banana leaf between 11734 and 12343 points to finish wave 2 in green. Although this could have already been handled, we still give the index some time as long as it is making use of the green foliage. After wave 2 in green has finally been completed, though, Nasdaq should move upwards, climb above the resistance at 13740 points and head for the upper green zone between 15580 and 16444 points. However, a 45% chance remains that the index could drop below the support at 11479 points, thus triggering furthers downwards movement below the next mark at 11068 points.
Nasdaq: Push-Ups 💪How many push-ups can you do? Nasdaq has accomplished several push-ups during the last weeks, and it should keep up this good work. We expect the tech-index to rise into the upper yellow zone between 14044 and 14798 points, where it should finish wave (3) in yellow. Afterwards, it should start a countermovement into the lower yellow zone between 13579 and 13058 points to complete wave (4) in yellow before resuming the overarching ascent. There is a chance, though, that Nasdaq could make a detour through the turquoise zone between 12934 and 12432 points first before heading for the upper yellow zone.
Nasdaq: Welcome Back!Just as we expected, Nasdaq has returned into the turquoise zone between 11527 and 10644 points. There, ideally in the zone's lower half, the index should finish wave C in turquoise and subsequently turn upwards. However, there is a 30% chance that Nasdaq could directly push the ascent above the resistance at 13583 points.
Nasdaq: Get Down to Business!Or rather get up to business as that’s the direction to go for Nasdaq. The tech-index should move above the resistance at 13583 points to complete wave i in magenta at about 1500 points before starting a countermovement downwards to finish wave ii in magenta. However, as long as Nasdaq has not made it above 13583 points, we still must allow for our alternative scenario, which would come into play if the index were to fall below the support at 11491 points.
nasdaq futrue enteryday set upthe daily bias is short
we expect price go up first, hit the liquidty then make fast move down
watch the 5min time frame for enrty
risk reward should be 1:3
final target should be yesterday's low
good luck folks!
NASDAQ At the Bottom or 1WMA waiting?he Nasdaq (NDX) index is very close to the Lower Lows trend-line of the Channel that started the correction in Dec. Technically, as long as the Lower Lows line holds, we may see either a +10% rebound or a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level rebound and That basically gives us two Midterm targets 13400 and 14000 depending on your risk Management.
However, a 1D candle close below the Lower Lows, can be enough to extend this long-term selling towards the 1W MA200 . The last time this trend-line got hit was on Mar 23 2020 , which made the bottom of the COVID market crash.
Nasdaq100 What Now Episode 28Hey guys the Nasdaq100 is getting really interesting as the day runs by. Who am I kidding we've got investors cussing at the lady. Anyway, the bulls are looking prepared for battle making me realize that maybe just maybe we reached a bottom yesterday by bottom I mean a lower-low. There's no downtrend without a news lower-high right? So I feel like that's the confirmation we'll be needing if the bears are to be back. But as at today I can't help but think we should be on the buyers side at least for us day-traders. Try not to miss my streams as I would be explaining what I've got going on for the day. But, watch the video first---to get an insight on the day's plan.
Have a great day: today.
NASDAQ: Bloodbath ..?Prices seems like approached strong Demand Zone
at 12200 and also trapped in Bullish Flag inside
another Bullish Flag. We might see some retracements
from current Demand zone but NASDAQ is already entered
in Bearish Trend.
So better to look for Short Entries.
Proper Shorts entries will be active after breaking 12000
critical zone. Once Broken, look for retest and take entry.
Keep in mind the current Fundamental impacts
including Russia- Ukraine war, interest rates,
inflation also we've got chances of RECESSION
up ahead.
Nasdaq100 What Now Episode 26It's Saturday. Saturdays are for reviews and in this video, I did just that. This week in Nasdaq100 was really "hmm" what's a suitable word for it? I don't even know. But, I actually took one L, a BE, and two wins.. I didn't do badly honestly.. So here's a video of trades taken, why, and lessons learnt. Let me know how I can improve. Have a great weekend and don't miss my Back-test stream.
