Nas100 Trading setup Institutional tacticsHello traders this my trading setup in the higher time frame
My tactics ;
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Support & Resistance
Market Structure , Price Swings
Open Interest
Order Blocks & breaker block=> Expansion
liquidity => Reversal
imbalance => Retracement
Consolidation => Equalibrium
Market Maker Models buy and sell
Weekly Profiles
If you like my content please follow and hit the like button and show some love
wish you good luck and good trading
Nasdaqidea
Nasdaq - Shifting back bearish?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at the Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For over a decade the Nasdaq has been trading in a pretty obvious rising channel formation. We saw the last retest of support in 2022 which was followed by an enormous +70% rally towards the upside. Considering that the Nasdaq is now retesting the upper resistance, there is a quite high chance that we will see at least a short term correction lower before the Nasdaq will follow its overall uptrend.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
All you should Know about Nasdaq (ICT)In fundamental analysis, we observe a market surge following a liquidity uptake beyond the all-time high, marking a new peak in NQ. However, inflation rates indicate that the Federal Reserve is hesitant to reduce interest rates. Even with a 5% interest rate, inflation is on the rise again. This suggests that the Fed may abandon the idea of lowering interest rates and maintain them at 5% until the year's end.
Nevertheless, last week witnessed positive outcomes from companies such as Tesla, Microsoft, and Google, which revitalized market sentiment and led to a resurgence. However, concerns linger regarding the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by half point, which could pose challenges for the market.
In technical analysis, we observe the price targeting the sell side for Tuesday, February 30th, 2024, retracing to the gap on Monday, April 15th, 2024, above the equilibrium and within the premium, allowing new sellers to enter. The next target is the order block from Tuesday, January 16th, 2024.
Nasdaq Weekly Analysis Sure, here's the corrected text:
We see the price bouncing from Mon 10 OCT '22 after a year and a half of bearish market and going directly to retest the all-time high on Mon 22 Nov '21 again by MON 22 JAN '24. However, it starts to move towards a new all-time high, but with limited liquidity hindering further price increase. We've already witnessed a significant bullish move, and it's time for the market to correct itself. We've observed a weekly candle breaking the market structure forcefully towards the order block from Tue 02 Jan '24 and breaking the 50% retracement level from Mon 23 Oct '23 low to the all-time high. We anticipate the price to continue being bearish to shake out buyers and accumulate new liquidity if we aim to reach a new all-time high.
Our focal point in the NASDAQ for the 2Q is the breaker from Mon 24 Jul above the 50% Fibonacci level of the bullish leg and between 0.6/0.7 of the Fibonacci level to turn bullish. Breaking Mon 23 Oct '23 liquidity support would put us in a significantly bearish condition.
NAS100 MORE SELLS FOR BUY ATTEMPTSNAS100 gave a beautiful push to the downside after triggering the sell limit shared last week. The 4H SC area from yesterday's NY session looks juicy for sells to take her lower.
Price is currently close to tapping the 4H imb, a pull back off that imb towards the sc during london for sells during NY would be ideal.
Possible sell opportunity on NASDAQwere on a 3rd day of push to the downside, also currently in the golden zone and also in Premium zone. On the 4H & 15 min time frame weve reached order blocks. Id go for a 1:2 RR for this just to keep it light since this still is an uptrend. If it goes beyond the 2nd leg the trade will be invalid
NASDAQ100 ON MAJOR BUYING ZONEThe analysis suggests that NAS 100 (Nasdaq 100 index) is currently within a major buying and demand zone. This zone is a price range where significant buying interest has historically been observed, indicating strong demand for the index. Specifically, the demand zone is identified between 18,200 to 18,300 points on the NAS 100 index.
In technical analysis, demand zones represent areas where buyers outnumber sellers, resulting in increased buying pressure and potential price support. Traders often view demand zones as favorable entry points for long positions, anticipating a bounce in price from these levels.
The target for this trading setup is set at 200 pips, representing the expected upside movement in the NAS 100 index from the demand zone. Traders typically set targets based on technical analysis indicators, historical price movements, and market sentiment. In this case, the target of 200 pips suggests a significant potential gain for traders who enter positions at the demand zone.
Overall, the analysis indicates a favorable trading opportunity in NAS 100, with a major buying and demand zone identified between 18,200 to 18,300 points. Traders may consider entering long positions with the expectation of a 200-pip upside movement, aiming to capitalize on the potential price appreciation from the demand zone.
Whats next for Nas100??So I have a couple of reasons as to why I can see prices pushing higher. If looking on the 4H we broke out of what looks to be a bullish wedge and also a double bottom. we got a solid pump from yesterdays news. Now we wicked above last Friday's high but no candle closeon the 4H, at least not yet. Momentarily Nas is going short but not for long, we do need it to fill in these gaps and you can also see even better on the 2H. My second reason is if you see on the 2H it looks like we finished leg 3 of the elliot wave pattern hopefully dropping to that golden zone or even 18000-17950 which My extreme POI, then look for a 15min entry. After entry I'm holding to 18875. Good luck everyone!
www.tradingview.com
Nasdaq Cash: Trading Plan For The Coming WeeksHere is my "Nasdaq Cash" trading idea for the weeks ahead.
As it is clear, Nasdaq has moved a huge amount and may continue this trend hence forth.
In H4 time frame there is an strong level of liquidity( at price 17320.59 ) after hunting the mitigation of decision level and touching the FVG , and doing so, the extreme flip in the positive range is remained untouched.
I Presume that the price will try to reach out the level of liquidity and touch the mentioned extreme flip in order to go higher. For doing so we may have a negative Break of Structure(BOS) at H4 time frame which I assume might be a temporary BOS to reach out the liquidity level.
Keep in mind that if the price reaches the extreme flip, we will need an H4 Reverse pattern( H4 Positive Mainpulation ) to occur in order to jump in Buy Position since the structure of H4 time frame may have been changed in that time.
Nasdaq February Monthly Review – Contin.Refer to the previous post regarding Feb Monthly Analysis for part 1 of this post.
So as promised, here is the detailed analysis of each of the Feb month’s entries, marked with number’s on the chart:
Trade 1:
Entry Point: 17254
Time of entry (GMT): +-8h30
Confirmations:
Market Pattern: DB formed on 1H TF with neckline broken. Also on the 31 Jan, price had travelled down more than the distance equal to the height of the day DT that had formed (marked in blue lines). From profit target (end point of the blue vertical line), probability is high that market will move back to retest the neckline of the market pattern. I like being part of a retest that is in the same direction as the overall trend
Fib: The Day candle on 31 January had closed with a spike down to the Day 0,50 fib level (fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.). Day fib levels are strong and a DB forming in the area of the D 0,50 fib level is a strong entry signal
Candlesticks: 31 Jan Day candle closed with a longish spike down to the D 0,50 fib + D EMA
S&R: Strong dynamic support provided by the D EMA
Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect (buy the dip)
Stop loss: Half the height of the DB i.e.. At 17175,9
Draw Down pips: 754 pips
TP points: TP1 = 17963 (fib level -0,27)
TP2 = 18348,8 (fib level -0,618)
Fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.)
Both TPs hit
Close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2
Profit in pips: 10’943
Comments: Successful trade
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Trade 2:
Entry Point: 17607
Time of entry (GMT): 21h00
Confirmations:
Market Pattern: Db formed on the 15min TF, with strong momentum candle breaking the neckline.
Fib: DB formed by the Day 0,618 fib level (fib drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.) 0,618 fib levels are very strong especially on the D TF
Candlesticks: On the 15min TF, there is a long wick hammer candle right by the D 0,618 fib level + strong momentum green candles on the 15min TF to break the neckline of the DB.
S&R: DB formed by a strong Day S&R zone + D EMA right by this zone providing dynamic support
Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect
Stop loss: Half the height of the DB i.e. At 17531
Draw Down pips: 137 pips
TP points: TP1 = 18293,2 (fib level -0,27)
TP2 = 18617 (fib level -0,618)
(Fib drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.)
Plan is to close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2
Profit in pips: zero
Comments: This trade did not work out - ultimately price came down and took the trade out at entry - Market moved up 3504 pips from entry
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Trade 3:
Entry Point: 17364
Time of entry (GMT): 20h30
Confirmations:
Market Pattern: A huge DT formed on the D TF with a break of the neckline (neckline and profit target (ie same distance as height of market pattern) marked in orange lines). Price travelled the full distance of the profit target. End of profit target (end of the orange vertical line coincides perfectly with Week 0,382 fib level). Market has a high probability of retesting the neckline of the market pattern after reaching the profit target. I like being part of a retest that is in the same direction as the overall trend. DB formed on the 15min TF at this level with a break of the neckline.
Fib: 15min DB formed right at the W 0,382 fib level
Candlesticks: None
S&R: Strong Day support level + 4H 200 EMA
Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect
Stop loss: Half the height of the DB ie. At 17333
Draw Down pips: zero
TP points: TP1 = 18542 (fib level -0,27)
TP2 = 19189 (fib level -0,618)
Fib drawn from swing low at E. to swing high at D.
Plan is to close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2
Profit in pips: still in progress
Comments: Trade still in progress - market has moved 10'923 pips from entry
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Trade 4:
Entry Point: 17834,6
Time of entry (GMT): 13h30
Confirmations:
Market Pattern: DB formed on 30min TF right at the W 0,382 fib level + D 0,382 fib level. Enter at break of the neckline.
Fib: Area of confluence because Week and Day 0,382 fib levels coincide
Candlesticks: Long wick candle close on 30min TF piercing both the Fib levels but closing above
S&R: 4H support level + D EMA providing dynamic support
Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect
Stop loss: Half the height of the DB i.e. At 17825
Draw Down pips: 130 pips
TP points: TP1 = 18307,5 (fib level -0,27)
TP2 = 18581 (fib level -0,618)
Fib drawn from swing low at 3. to swing high at F.
Plan is to close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2
Profit in pips: TP1 hit + TP2 in progress
Comments: Tp1 hit at 4748 pips above entry
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If you had taken these trades, you would have closed out on 15'691 pips of profit.
Always easier to pinpoint entries in hindsight - but the point of this exercise is to understand these entries and understand why you didn’t take them. This will connect the dots in your brain and then in future, you have a higher chance of spotting these high-quality entries and actually taking them.
Looking at the chart above, one can clearly see the trending market i.e. the market runs and pulls back…runs and pulls back. So you want to get in on the trend at the pull back (at retracement levels).
These are not the only high-quality entries - there were some good sells with the break of the DT necklines (marked in black lines).
But these are sells in a bullish market, so your TP's will never run as far as buys in a bullish market.
A note about stop losses on Nasdaq – my advice is not to set actual stop losses on MT4 or MT5 for your trades because Nasdaq is so volatile that it can often spike you out. Unfortunately, you need to use mental stops and use judgement with stop losses and see how candles CLOSE, not how candles spike.
Once price has moved a significant distance away from your position, you can secure at entry and trade risk free.
Screen time with this index will help you get the "feel" of this
I learnt from this analysis and hope you did too 😊
All the best for March month trading!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average
DT = Double Top
DB = Double Bottom
Nasdaq February Monthly ReviewNasdaq - Feb Month Analysis
I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post February review and analysis in case it can help you!
Looking back at February, I want to review if I took the best trades for the month.
The Day TF provides me with the strongest confirmations and the most profitable trades.
This timeframe provides me with my bread and butter each month, so I need to make sure that I am taking these trades and getting the most out of them.
Have a look at what I believe where the best trades for February and see how many you took. If you didn’t take a trade, try to understand why you missed it.
This way you will increase your chances of getting into these trades in the future.
For Feb, there were 4 trades to be taken - trades marked in numbers on the chart.
Of course, there were many other profitable trades in Feb....but these are my "bread and butter" trades.
Tomorrow I will share a very detailed analysis on entry points + confirmations + SL + TP expectations.
See if you can come to your own conclusion on these 4 trades and then tomorrow we compare notes :)
BEARISH ON NAS TO TAKE OUT WEEKLY EQUAL LOWS AT 17828.25BEARISH ON NAS TO TAKE OUT WEEKLY EQUAL LOWS AT 17828.25
Look for a pull back into 1 hour FVG to sell down to take out weekly lows, and potentially down to tap into FVG inside of 4H BPR
If we break below the 4H BPR we can potentially continue bearish to grab more SSL (Sell Side Liquidity)
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 7 Mar 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
From my previous post you will know that I had a buy position at D. running.
As the morning progressed, market came down and the long wick at E. took out my D. position because I had secured at entry.
Waiting to see price action, I entered a buy at C. - Confirmations:
Fib: DB formed on the 1H TF (not marked on the graph but clear to see on the 1H TF at E.) at the 4H 0,618 fib level + Week 0,382 fib level
Market pattern: DB formed on 1H TF and neckline broken
Candle sticks: Long wick bullish candle on 1H TF (at E.) + strong bullish momentum candle to break the neckline
S&R + EMAs: DB formed at strong Day support level + D EMA providing dynamic support roughly in this area too
Trend line: None specifically but position is in the same direction as the overall trend (bullish in this case) - the trend is your friend
SL: Placed roughly halfway into the height of the market pattern, marked by the thick purple line
Tp's were determine using the fib drawn on the 4H TF (swing low = A. and swing high at the time was B. - se A. and B. on 1H TF and ignore on 4H TF on graph)
TP1 - 18240
TP 2 – 18360
Market moved well in my favor, ultimately creating a DB on the 4H TF (marked in black lines) with a neckline break and so interesting that the profit target (i.e. the same distance as the height of the market pattern) lined up perfectly with TP 1
On the 1H TF, price broke through the temporary down trend blue line at F and then a small red candle to re-test, before moving up again.
Took partial profit at TP1 and Finally closed my full position right up close to TP2 when a double top formed on the 15min TF.
Ultimately market moved 3586 pips from my C. position and I closed out at 3300 pips.
It was a goooooooooooood day! :)
What could I have done differently?
Entered a much MUCH bigger position! Haha!
Hope you caught this buy!
Good luck for NFP trading - think I will stay out today.
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average
DT = Double Top
DB = Double Bottom
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Wednesday 6 March 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am
On 5 March I entered buy positions at C.
Refer to that post for confirmations
Market moved up, breaking the 1H neckline and retesting the neckline at E.
Bulls pushed through all obstacles (i.e. various EMA's and pivot point)
Ultimately though, bears stepped in on sellers 0,618 fib level (at D.) and pushed down heavily
Bulls were unable to close above the 4H EMA - meaning that the 4H EMA will be a strong resistance on 7 March.
A large double top formed with neckline and profit target (height of the market pattern) marked in black lines
Bears broke the neckline down, with a neckline retest at F. and market pushed down further.
Ultimately market moved 2594 pips from my entry and I closed half my position in the region of F. (1344 pips)
Reason for closing at F. = bearish market pattern with neckline break
The remaining half of my position will be left running and hope that NFP will buy tomorrow, otherwise I will be taken out at entry.
I suspect that market may be weird today as we approach NFP tomorrow.
What could I have done differently?
No very happy with the pips I grabbed. I feel I should have closed out more pips since market moved so high.
Looking at the 30min chart, there is a clear DT (at D.) and I should have taken profit at break of this neckline
This would have meant I would have secured 630 pips more
Bulls were so strong throughout the day and I was hoping that buyers would step in again at the 1H EMA.
But a double top on the 30min TF at a seller's 0.618 fib level cannot be ignored!
Happy Trading! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average
DT = Double Top
DB = Double Bottom
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 5 March 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am
During analysis noted the following:
So following on from Monday's analysis, I had identified the yellow highlighted area as my "Zone 2" area of interest
This was a strong area of confluence because:
It was the 4H 0,618 fib level (drawn from swing low at A to swing high at B)
+ Day 0,382 fib level
+ 4H EMA (position during the morning roughly marked in green)
I entered a pretty big buy at C. and set my stop loss really low at the orange thick line.
Ultimately I watched my position tank and took a big loss.
This scenario has caught me out many times before.
I know that before entering at a fib level, one should wait for price action to confirm the reversal.
If you look at the price action at C. level, there is clearly no price action indicating a reversal.
But if you trade Nasdaq and you know this index well, you will know that Nasdaq very often does not give price action confirmation on the bigger timeframes (15min and above)
You see it all the time how Nasdaq will dip down touch an area and the spike back up, leaving a loooooong wick candle of a hundreds of pips.
Some of my most profitable trades have been entering at these levels without price action confirmation. But like yesterday, it can also bite me in the behind.
I still haven't figured this out yet. Maybe there is confirmation on a lower timeframe?
If you know what I mean and have an antidote, please let me know! ;)
My next area of interest was the green highlighted zone. This represented an area of confluence because:
The D EMA was at this level
This was also the Week 0,50 fib level
This time I did wait for price action confirmation :) And in typical Nasdaq style, it only gave it to me way above my area i.e. 600 pips above where I would've wanted to enter (see what I mean).
So I entered at D. - Confirmations:
Market Pattern - a DB had formed on the 15min TF with a break of the neckline
Candlesticks - neckline break with strong momentum candle
Fib - W 0,50 fib level and market moving up
S&R - Dynamic support from the D EMA
Market moved up and I have secured my positions at entry, so trading risk free today.
I hope market moves well today. Lots of news so could be choppy!
What could I have done differently?
Still trying to figure it out, but on the surface, I don’t think I could have done anything different other than cutting my losses sooner.
As said, this strategy often pays off for me.
All the best!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average
DT = Double Top
DB = Double Bottom
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 4 March 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am (just before 1am EST)
Looking exclusively for a buy because "the trend is your friend"
During analysis noted the following:
Price consolidating in a triangle on 1H (marked by blue circle)
I feel the market will retrace today
Two interest zones identified
Zone 1:
Area of confluence because -
Pivot point
4H 0,382 fib level (fib drawn from swing low at A to swing high at B)
Market pattern - Just past profit target if a double top forms; market tends to reverse at or near profit target to re-test the neckline. I like being part of a re-test that is the same as the overall trend (bullish in this case)
Zone 2:
Area of confluence because -
4H 0,618 fib level
D 0,382 fib level
4H EMA (was in this region at time of analysis and throughout the day)
I set buy limits at each zone as follows:
A smallish buy position at Zone 1, because for me the confirmations are not soo strong and it really depends on price action so I will judge the market sentiment based on candles to see if I add more
A large buy position at Zone 2, because these are strong confirmations and price should at least bounce from here.
Ultimately a DT did form and break the neckline down. But market was very slow and none of my zones of interest were triggered.
In the evening, I cancelled my buy order in Zone 1 because I felt market was very slow and I wouldn’t get the reaction that I wanted in this area.
Clearly, investors are waiting for the inflationary data this week.
What could I have done differently?
Nothing
Hope you had a good trading day! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average
DT = Double Top
DB = Double Bottom