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Nasdaq Crash Loading - The Black Swan The current state of the NASDAQ indicates an extreme overbought condition, with a rally influenced by speculation surrounding six potential rate cuts in 2024. However, the risk arises from the Federal Reserve's concern about inflation. If the Fed, in response to persistent inflation, opts to raise rates, it could lead to a market decline. Conversely, a decision to cut rates may not be sufficient to buoy the stock market if the number of cuts is lower than expected. Examining current fundamentals, the housing market has stabilized with low prices and mortgage rates. Although there is a rebound, a potential increase in housing speculation and mortgage rates could prompt a reassessment. Improved employee wages contribute to consumer confidence against inflation. President Joe Biden's initiatives, such as pausing student loan payments in November and plans to provide homes for 500,000 Americans, may stimulate housing demand, causing prices to rise. This could prompt a review of interest rates and a tightening of monetary policies. While I maintain a long-term bullish outlook, anticipating a correction of at least 50%, it is prudent to reevaluate macroeconomic indicators at that point to determine whether to take profits or continue holding.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by ttfx098_
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Monday 22 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. At time of analysis I noted the following: Early morning bulls had push up even further. Bullish trend is clear and I will be looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend” However, on pulling the fib (drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B1.) on the 4H TF and noting the pivot point – I note that the retracement levels are far down from were price currently is. In this instance one must be careful because even a shallow retracement can be more than 1000 pips down and the pivot point is +- 2000 pips down. So if you are like me and only put your daily trading budget into your account, one can easily bust your account by going in too early with a buy and then market retraces further. Also, bulls pushed straight up on Friday with zero retracement, so the chance for a retracement today is high. As the morning progressed, a small double top formed on the 1H TF. Neckline broke and price moved down. The purple support line held seven long wick candles from breaking down (candle 1. and 7. are indicated). So even though sellers were pushing down hard, buyers held the support strong. I entered a small buy at C. (20% of my usual position size) – Confirmations: Candles sticks – long wick candles on the 1H TF indicating sellers were unable to push down S&R – Support zone holding strong Market pushed up 434 pips and as it came down again I closed half of that position at a small loss. I limited my risk because I noted that market had touched the top trend line of the D ascending wedge and then moved bearish from there. I wanted to protect my margin as a bigger retracement might take place and I would rather get in lower. So now I had 10% of my usual position open. I don’t regret this entry and still think it was a valid entry. My plan was to open another small position at the 1H 20 EMA at E. (depending on the 5min price action in this zone and then another bigger % buy position at the 4H 0.382 retracement level (to me this is an area of confluence because there is an uptrend intersecting with this zone). When market opened at 2:30pm GMT, price touched the top trend line at B2, but still closed in the green. I entered another 20% buy as this candle closed (at D.) at 3pm GMT. This was a hasty entry and one that I regret. I only entered because the 4H candle closed green and I felt like the purple support zone was holding strong on the 4H TF. I didnt think about a possible double top forming on the 4H (how silly am I). But I should have stuck with my original plan because market came down almost immediately and a double top formed on the 4H. As market came down, I realized my mistake and closed half of my position at D. to limit my loss in case of a bigger retracement. So I had a small position at C. and at D. still open. I entered as planned another small buy at E. But market didn’t really move much. I suspect investors are waiting for Netflix earnings tomorrow. So I am now in a predicament. The day is nearly done and I have 3 small buy positions open. If I look at how the candles are reacting to the 1H and 30 min EMAs, I don’t like what I see. But there are long wick candles and a strong previous bulls reaction near the 0.382 retracement level. Do I close and take my losses for the day? Or chance it and swing it till tomorrow? It just feels wrong to close a buy on such a strong bull run…but then again, everyone is watching earnings with bated breath to see if the Nadaq highs are validated. What could I have done differently: Not entered at D. But overall, even though the sell was the best move for the day, I don't regret my trading plan for today. I would not have entered a sell on such a bullish trend. Maturity is starting to show in my risk management and my choice of position size in these more aggressive entries. At least I kept it small! Hope you had a great trading day and squeezed out some pips! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo - The Most Underrated Indicator (e.g. NAS100)Welcome to my first educational post. This is a big one, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is the most underused, underrated, least understood and yet most powerful trend indicator available to the general public. I'll first briefly describe the 4 components: - Tenkan Sen (turning line): it's like a small period moving average but calculated slightly differently. So if price breaks it, it's a first signal of a trend reversal but always wait for the retest. - Kijun Sen (standard line): it's like a larger period moving average but like the Tenkan it's calculated differently. One interesting note is that when it flatlines it represents the 0.5 fib level of the current range. Together, they are used for crossovers just like classic moving averages. - Kumo (Cloud): which is composed of 2 special moving averages called the Senkou Span A and the Senkou Span B. Generally serves as a support/resistance zone and is also subject to crossovers that can confirm reversals (not signal) since it is too slow to signal them. The thicker the cloud the stronger the trend and vice versa. - Chikou Span (Lagging Span): Mirrors current price action 26 periods in the past. In simple terms, it puts things into perspective and can detect potential blocking points for price. Here is a case study of the NAS100 and monthly Ichimoku: What do we see? (Follow the steps) 1) Price breaking the Tenkan and retesting it twice. This is already a major bearish signal. 2) Following the Tenkan break, price doubled down and broke the Kijun + retested it TWICE! A strong bearish confirmation that the downtrend will continue. 3) The Tenkan/Kijun crossover, this is like a death cross of MAs (look it up). 4) This is a reversal signal. You'll notice how price never touched the cloud again. The monthly Ichimoku really puts things into perspective. It really enables you to see the bigger picture and that it is okay to buy in a bear market. You just have to let it guide you. 5) First confirmation of the reversal: the break of the Tenkan + retest. 6) Second confirmation of the reversal: the break of the Kijun + no retest was even needed. 7) 'Golden cross', the Tenkan/Kijun crossing over which is the third confirmation and that price is simply extremely bullish. 8) The Chikou Span breaking past price. This is similar to price breaking a resistance level, it gives the same kind of signal. This is the final bullish confirmation. This a very summarised explanation of how the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator should be used BUT if you want to learn more about it, I strongly suggest you read the book by Karen Péloille: Trading With Ichimoku, A Practical Guide to Low-Risk Ichimoku Strategies. As always, have a lovely Sunday and happy trading! ;)
FX:NAS100Education
by Lexi_Is_Trading
3
NAS100 & SPX500 - WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY? (CONFLICTED)We are at a pivoting point in the markets, everything seems to be bullish and yet I have this bearish itch. Markets seem to be overpriced, notably the NQ. However the S&P500, has had a healthier correction and the continuation of its rally makes more sense. Since both markets are highly correlated, it would be absurd to short the NQ while the S&P500 looks so bullish. Why do I want to short the NQ? Technically it hasn't retraced as sanely as the S&P500 but that may be the nature of both markets. The NQ being more irrational (more speculative) than the rest, especially with the AI craze. So here's my two cents worth on the matter! What is on the charts? (follow the steps) 1) Highs that wicked many times in the daily bearish FVG. 2) Significant high that as I'm writing this has been taken out. 3) The retail sales session that took out lows and this is also what has me question the rally. If it is supposed to be bearish info why isn't price dropping? These are the reasons why I do not trade on certain days because I do not see clearly all the time. 4) Asian session lows, a great target for shorts. 5) A retest (or break of the daily FVG). I am not a breakout trader which is why I am not focusing on the bullish outcome because I couldn't tell you how to trade it optimally. 6) The bearish structure (that may never present itself). This all depends on the S&P500, for me to accept a short I need that double confirmation. So right now I accept everything as bullish unless shown otherwise. 7) Asian session lows taken out. 8) Finally the healthier correction that I'd want for the NQ to accept a more bullish approach. As always, happy trading everyone and have a lovely day! ;)
FX:NAS100
by Lexi_Is_Trading
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 18 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. At time of analysis I noted the following: A double bottom had formed on the 1H and 4H TF. When market patterns form on both the 1H and 4H TFs, we have multi-timeframe confluence, and this is a very powerful confluence on Nasdaq (so always keep on eye out for these). The 1H double bottom had already broken the neckline by the time I did my analysis and rested the neckline at A. I was waiting for 4H to also break neckline with a candle close above the 4H market pattern neckline and a break through 20 EMA. I noted that the temporary orange down trend line had already been broken by the early morning bulls. The 1H candles were already closing above 1H 20 EMA The 30min 20 EMA was acting as dynamic support Pivot point was already below the candles and had also been retested at B. Fib: market had reached down nearly to 0.50 retracement level on D TF and now moving up All this combined, indicated that bulls were in the market. I entered a full position buy at C. Confirmations – Market Pattern: Double bottom on 1H and 4H TF had the necklines broken. Also on the 15min TF you can see a triangle chart pattern (consolidation pattern) which was broken to the upside. Candlesticks: None specifically but all 4H candles had been green since the early morning, indicating bull momentum Trendline: Temporary orange downtrend was already broken earlier in the morning S&R: candles were above 1H 20 EMA already and break of the 4H market pattern neckline also meant candle closed above 4H 20 EMA, so 4H 20 EMA would not be a resistance. Mental stop was placed below the pivot + 20 EMAs, because if candles started closing below this point then market would sell. You can see the doji’s on the 1H TF where buyers and sellers were fighting it out to determine if yesterday’s neckline would hold again today. Market pushed up and we are now at all-time highs again! :) I took partial profits twice at E. because this was the downtrend line (shown with the purple line) that was respected numerous times before. Also E. was roughly the same distance as the height of the 4H double bottom (indicated by the black line at F.). So chances were great that bears would step in at this point and the fight between bears and bulls can be seen by the candles / price action on the 15min TF. Eventually Nas broke to the upside and market is currently (at time of writing this) +- 2200 pips from my entry. Hope you caught the buy and making some good MONEY! What could I have done differently: It was a perfect day…wish everyday could be like this! Just want to say, that learning to trade was / is the hardest thing I have ever learnt to do (and I say that as a qualified Chartered Accountant). Don't give up on your trading dream. Some days are so good (like today) and other days are so so SOOOOO hard. Keep learning, keep growing, keep working on your mental game....it will all be worth it....just don't stop! :) :) TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 17 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Back from a bit of a long weekend! Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. At time of analysis I noted the following: Nasdaq had been moving strangely since CPI. Consolidating on the D TF with very long wick candles and doji’s forming. But the top wick’s of the day candles are adhering to a downtrend line. I noted that the bodies of the candles were closing lower on the 4H TF (point A. on 4H TF vs. point B on 4H TF). Market had pushed down heavily in the early hours of the morning. The line chart of the D TF showed a double top (neckline marked in darker blue). The 4H TF showed a double top (neckline marked in green). The 1H TF showed a head and shoulders pattern with an upward slanted neckline (marked in turquoise). All these bearish patterns, together with the D candles (showing loss of momentum of the buyers) indicated a very bearish mood in the market. I entered a sell at C. – Confirmations: Market Pattern: Bearish Patterns on 4H and 1H TF. C. represented a break in the neckline of both these patterns. Candlesticks: Red candles on 1H and 4H TF the whole morning till that point in time. Fib: None Trendline: None specifically. But the 4H TF candles closing with lower highs gave me a very rough trend (point A. vs point B. as motioned earlier) S&R: Candles had moved below pivot point and below the 1H and 4H 20 EMA, so dynamic support was broken. Point F. can be taken as a retest of the pivot and the 1H EMA which broke bearish. Mental stop was placed above the pivot point marked with a thick pink line. Market moved down quite rapidly and I took partial profit at D. because the 4H EMA was at this point and together with the 1H 200 EMA, I thought this might cause the bulls to step in. Took more profit at E. because of the 1H doji candle close and also because price had travelled down the full distance of the height of the market pattern of the 4H double top. So market was bound to retest the neckline from here. I kept a small portion of my position open just in case market turned bearish before the neckline but ultimately I was taken out at entry. After this trade and after having made some good money for the day (market had moved about 780 pips in my favour). I decided to not trade again based on how strangely market has been moving these past few days and that I should be happy to have caught such a good move. But, and here was my lesson for the day, there was a bigger and better move in the works. Price came back to test the neck line of both market patterns and then moved down again. Maintaining my discipline and respecting my decision not to trade again today, I entered a sell at G. on my DEMO account. Confirmations - Market Pattern: Retest of the neckline of both market patterns on 1H and 4H TFs Candlesticks: Red doji candle close on 1H TF Fib: G. was at 0.50 Fib level (fib drawn from swing high at B. to swing low at H.) S&R: Doji closed below 1H 20 EMA and also the 4H EMA Ultimately the move down was +- 2000 pips. So although I am impressed with my discipline of sticking to my decisions…I limited myself and lost out on a massive move. Over trading is one thing. But if Nas throws out 2 great opportunities in a day then be smart enough to recognise that this is not overtrading, but rather just taking advantage of what market has to offer. Don’t limit yourself and decide, like I did today, to take advantage of one opportunity and be done for the day. Nas can put out multiple opportunities in a single day and on other days, market is nothing but choppy. Take a moment to reflect what you define as over-trading and how this is different to taking advantage of multiple opportunities. Hope you caught the second sell! It was an easy trade….wish I had taken it with real money! What could I have done differently: Be discipled enough to avoid over trading but smart enough / flexible enough to go against my decision when such a great opportunity presented itself. Also the gap down on the 15min TF was COOL! :) TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
NAS100 - MY BEARISH SCENARIO (TARGET 16500)What are we looking at? 1) An all-time-high (ATH) to end 2023 with fireworks and champagne. 2) A sneaky daily bearish FVG that we know is relevant thanks to step 5 and 7. 3) A retracement creating a range that ends on the notorious 0.618 fib level (weekly fib). 4) The continuation of the general trend, price pulls back into the range and creates a daily bullish FVG. It is indeed plausible that price does continue and forms a new ATH but for arguments sake, I prefer the probabilities a short gives me in a premium market with more liquidity to grab on the sellside. 5) Price halts in the bearish FVG mentioned in step 2 and prior to that created a 4H bullish FVG. 6) The CPI release had price wick into the 4H FVG and back into the consolidation we go! 7) Price wicking at multiple occasions in the daily bearish FVG which is to me a primary signal for a short setup despite all the bullish price action around it. Listen, if price breaks buyside aggressively, no short will be taken. We need price to break a low and then a short structure may present itself. 8) Here we have the potential break to the downside, taking out sellside liquidity. We can also call this a break-of-structure. 9) A pullback for a potential short entry and voilà. 10) 2 targets for partials. NFA and happy trading guys! ;)
FX:NAS100Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 12 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) After yesterday’s volatility, I knew that today’s PPI would be important for investors. As the day progressed a double top formed on the 1H TF and a head and shoulders formed on the 4H TF, both sharing the same neckline. The pivot had been holding as strong support on a few occasions, but the bearish mood in the market/price action was tangible. Usually I am looking for a buy only, but after yesterday’s CPI I decided to go with what the candles were telling me. I took a sell at A. as price started breaking through the pivot point – Confirmations: - Market pattern – 4H head and shoulders, as well as 1H double top had formed and neckline was broken - Candlesticks: Bulls were failing to break through the resistance at the level indicated by the hand. Four failed attempts had been made. - Fib: Candles were failing to move higher roughly at the 0.618 1H fib level - Trend: There was a temporary downtrend line marked in green - S&R: The pivot point was starting to fail as a support. Took a small position as it was before the PPI and this news release could change market bias. Market moved about 520 pips from my position and I secured at entry. Ultimately price moved back up and I was out at entry. Price reversing at B. was due to this area being one of strong confluences: - Fib: 0.05 buy fib level (fib drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.) - Price had travelled down exactly the same distance as the height of the market pattern - S&R: The 4H 20 EMA was at this level at the time and provided dynamic support. This is exactly why I always keep my bias the same as the overall trend because the biggest moves of the day come in the direction of the trend. The sell I took was 520 pips. The buy that came from B. was 1700 pips. Take profit from this buy would have been easy as it hit TP1, so I would have closed a portion of my position and left the rest running. Its frustrating because if I had kept my bias as a buy I definitely would have taken the buy at B. because I like being part of the retest of the neckline that is in the same direction of the overall trend (still bullish, even after yesterday's CPI). But it was a weird day today for me after CPI, market was choppy - so I guess not too bad if I come out with nothing and live to trade another day. Have a great weekend! What could I have done differently: Kept my bias as a buy. TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 11 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Thursday was CPI news release. I usually don’t like trading in the hours before the news event because market is often times very flat. I left a small position open from Wednesday, but closed at A. when I noted the weakness on the 15min TF. So I closed this position at a +- 1’200 pip profit. As we were getting closer to CPI, I noted the 30min 20 EMA providing dynamic support. One minute before CPI, I opened a buy at B. For me, news events are like gambling because market can go either way and I don't know how to stack probabilities in my favour. For this reason I went in very small. CPI candle shot down, but I noted the reaction to the pivot point. The closure of the CPI candle formed a nice head and shoulder market pattern on the 1H TF. I knew immediately I was not in a good position with my B. buy and wanted to get out asap. But instead of panicking and closing immediately, I set a mental stop for myself under the pivot point (if candles started closing below this point a sell would ensue). When the second candle came down to the pivot point again, I monitored price action on the 5min TF and decided to open a second position of equal size to my B. position. Second buy position is marked with C. This was right on my mental stop loss, so if market continued to move down I would not have taken a big loss here. However, bulls pushed up to re-test the neckline of the 1H head and shoulders pattern. At about D. (which was where the 1H EMA was positioned at the time), I decided to close my B. position. I felt that the EMA could easily push price back down. At D. I had reduced my loss on B. by about half and considering it was a small position, I was happy to take that loss and get out of this “bad” position. If market would continue to go up then the profit from my C. position would cover that loss easily, but if market went back down then I would be so happy to be out of that position. I secured my C. position at entry (i.e placed stop loss at entry). Phew – I was ok and felt I had managed my risk. I was happy to take the small loss from my B. position and would not re-enter the market if my C. position got taken out. Unfortunately, bulls could not break the neckline of the market pattern and when the candle at E. closed I knew my buy would not work out. I got taken out at entry and stayed out for the rest of the day. Ultimately, I still made pips for the day as the profit from the position I carried over from Wednesday was slightly more than the loss I took for CPI. It was a hectic day and I hope you did well! Today, market looks choppy so far and I believe PPI will bring some more volatility to the table. What could I have done differently: Ultimately, market came up all the way to my B position, meaning that I could’ve closed at entry without taking a loss. If I had looked at the 5min chart, there was no weakness at the 1H 20 EMA level. This means I closed based on fear and not on price action. Next time, I need to remain even calmer and let the candles do the talking. TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 10 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis around 5:20am GMT. At time of analysis, the following was noted: Buy fib was drawn early this morning from swing low at A to swing high at B1…and then later in the day to swing high at B2. Retracement levels written in purple for B2 fib. Fib levels were relatively close together with less than 600 pips separating the 0.383 and 0.618 levels. This means that one can usually go in with your full lot size because the potential draw down can be handled. Market was consolidating into a descending triangle market pattern on both the 1H TF and the 4H TF (with double tops inside). This market pattern usually breaks down. Bears indeed managed to break the neckline of the double top (shown with orange lines) and market moved down the same distance as the height of the pattern. Here, price found dynamic support from 1H 20 EMA and moved back up to test neckline of the 1H / 4H double top. I usually like to be part of the restest of the neckline which is in the same direction as the overall trend (bullish in this case). This morning however, I was expecting market to move down further but when I saw the reaction to the 1H EMA, I entered. I entered half my usual position size as a buy at C. (half because I was really expecting market to move down at least to pivot point). Confirmations: - Market Pattern: Bears had broken the neckline of the double top formed on the 1H & 4H TF. Price had travelled the profit target distance and was about to test the neckline of the market pattern in the same direction as the overall trend. Price was moving up and had closed above the neckline at C. on the 15min TF. Price had also broken back into the descending triangle indicating that the break out down was a fake out. - Fib: None – this is the reason I entered only half a position because the 0.382 retracement level was at the pivot point this morning so this little market pattern break out was a very shallow retracement. - Candle sticks & trend: The candle at C. on the 15min TF closed green forming a higher high after a series of lower highs indicating that the temporary down trend was possibly over (fully confirmed by the next green 15min candle which closed above the temporary orange down trend line). - S&R: 1H 20 EMA providing dynamic support Mental stop was placed at think pink line, because if price did not retrace by the 0.618 fib level and closed below the previous D neckline then a sell would ensue. I would have entered another half position of price moved down. Market moved up 750 pips from my position and I secured at entry. I knew a real fight between bears and bulls would take place at the purple down trend line. This line is draw on the wicks of the D candles from the D Double top. The move I wanted to secure today was the bulls breaking this trend line. So I didn’t take profit at peak B2. Price came down and took me out at entry. After judging price action just before & during market open I re-entered at D. I am now secured at entry and holding in case bulls break through the purple trend line. So I will be out at entry with nothing or if the bulls break through, I suspect there will be a big move up and KA-CHING!! Fingers crossed! Hope you had a good trading day too! What could I have done differently: So I was trying to adjust my stop loss of my C. position and all of a sudden my trade closed and also my swing trade from Sunday evening. My C. trade was close to entry anyway so I wasn’t too worried about that. But my swing trade closing by accident caused serious PANIC IN THE DISCO!!!!! I usually set my profit to show as pips in MT5 (it’s a strategy to help me deal with greed and fear). So the whole time I was seeing my swing trade profit in pips. When it suddenly closed, I saw the massive monetary profit in my equity and it totally threw me off! I was like “should I just keep the profit?? It’s so much money!”….”Maybe this happened for a reason”….”This wasn’t my plan at all but maybe now that I have the money banked I should just keep it”. Eventually, after I calmed down, I re-entered my "swing trade". So now my swing trade will be two trades that I will combine in my trading journal and view ultimately as one trade. It was never my plan to close that swing trade at that moment. I decided to stick to my plan and even if market draws down and I ultimately make a smaller profit from this swing trade, it’s more important that I stick to my plan and close my trades when I want to close them based on price action. So take a moment to think about what you will do if a trade closes by accident….having thought it through before the time will assist you in those critical moments when it happens to you. TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Tuesday 9 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis around 5:20am GMT. At time of analysis, the following was noted: A double top was forming on the 1H TF (marked with purple lines). I knew that market would come down to test the neckline (marked in pink) of the D Double top that it broke through yesterday. Drawing retracement levels in the charts in purple (swing low at A. and swing high at B.) Noted that both the D 20 EMA and the 4H 20 EMA were close to the 4H – 0.382 retracement level. This created a strong area of confluence in my opinion (so I highlighted this area in yellow). I set a buy limit at C. for half on my usual position size. Mental stop was placed by the thick pink line, as this was also just below the 0.50 fib level so I would give my trade some breathing room in case market decided to test the 0.50 fib level. Ultimately, market never reached my buy limit. For me, today was a really important day for Nasdaq. If the bulls were not able to break the neckline of the D Double top that had formed previously, then we would see a further down swing of the market and a larger bearish pushdown. With the candles, pivot point + EMAs + 0.382 retracement level below the neckline of the D double top (i.e. market had ALREADY broken below the D neckline), I felt unsure of a buy because the market was already in a risky area (below the neckline). I entered a buy at D – Confirmations: - Market Patterns: formation of double bottom on 1H TF. Entered when market had broken the neckline of the double bottom as well as the D neckline (marked in pink) - Trend Line: D also represented the level where market had broken the temporary down trend line (marked in blue) and closed a higher high after a period of lower highs – signaling the end of the downtrend. - Candlesticks: Strong green candle close on the 1H, breaking D Neckline - Fib: Market had been down in the region of the 0.382 4H Fib retracement level and was now moving higher Mental stop was the same. Bulls continued the push up and eventually I closed my position in stages at E. as candles began consolidating at the level. So that 933 pips profit for me today! What could I have done differently: I could have been more aggressive and entered at about F. I already had a buy limit at C. so I was already willing to risk the buy from below the neckline at C. So when the double bottom started forming on the 15 min TF just above the level of my buy limit, I should have jumped in with my buy. But having to enter manually, I felt myself hesitating and being fearful that bears would step in at the neckline. Lesson to be learnt, if you have an ideal entry point where you set a buy / sell limit and then market forms a reversal pattern very close to your desired entry then jump in at that point and delete your pending order. If I had done that I would have had 511 extra pips in my pocket! Hope you caught this nice buy! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Monday 8 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Today was a different day for me. I planned the trade I took today over the weekend. Friday 5th Jan trading day ended with a green doji candle close on the D TF. This D candle touched the 0.618 Fib level on the D TF and closed above the 4H 200 EMA. To me this signalled the start of a bullish move, at the very least to re-test the neckline of the Double Top on the D TF (marked in pink). I decided I wanted to enter a swing trade and so I stayed up late on Sunday evening and opened a nice big buy position in the seconds as market opened on Sunday 11pm GMT. My swing trade buy confirmations: - Market Pattern – double top had formed on the D TF and price had traveled the full distance of the profit target (i.e. the same distance down as the height of the market pattern). I like to enter a trade that will re-test the neckline in the same direction as the overall trend (bullish in this case if we assume that the bear move was just a retracement and not a full trend reversal. I will consider a full trend reversal to be in place if market tests the neckline of the double top and then moves down again). - Fib – a strong fib level was reached on a high TF (0.618 on a D TF) - Candle stick – green doji on a D TF - S&R – 4H 200 EMA providing dynamic support to 2 x D candles I funded my trading account with the amount of money I was prepared to lose and I would not place a stop loss. I correctly choose my position size to handle a drawdown of 1500 – 2000 pips and if my account bust then that would be the end of my swing trade. All went according to plan, and I am currently on 3166 pips profit for the day. I did close a small portion of my position to recover my small losses over the previous days and also take some profit for my efforts today. But the majority of the trade is running. I secured my trade at entry and am now trading risk free. The plan is to wait to see if bulls break through the neckline (so far so good, but I am expecting a bearish push down tomorrow to test bulls strength). Luckily pivot point + 1H, 4H and D 20 EMA’s will be under the candles hopefully giving a push up. What could I have done differently: I am happy with my performance today. Hope you caught this nice buy! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
7 Dimension Trade idea For Nasdaq 😇 7 Dimension Analysis Time Frame: H4 1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bullish 🟢 Structure Behavior: Break of Structure (BoS) 🟢 Swing Move: Corrective move, indicating a Point of Interest (POI) for potential reversal. Vigilance is required for a bullish reaction at this level. 🟢 Inducement: Not done yet; waiting for a proper internal bullish BoS. 🟢 Internal Structure: Currently bearish, anticipating a shift with a bullish BoS. 🟢 Decisional Order Block: About to be mitigated. 🟢 Demand Area: Identified via FVG, indicating a discounted area. 🟢 Time Frame Confluence: Daily and H4 2️⃣ Pattern 🟢 CHART PATTERNS: No significant chart patterns observed. 🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS: Various signals: Record Session count, Shrinking long wick, Change in guard with engulfing, Doji, Momentum, Inside bar, and a blended combo suggesting a potential reversal. 3️⃣ Volume 🟢 Fixed Range: Bullish dominance in these areas. 🟢 Volume during Correction: Comparatively less during correction than in impulsive moves. 4️⃣ Momentum RSI 🟢 Zone: Extremely Bearish 🟢 Range Shift: Waiting for a potential shift from bearish to sideways. Two strong bullish divergences indicate weakness in bearish momentum. 🟢 Loud Moves: Conventional RSI theory suggests an extremely oversold market, possibly signaling a reversal. 🟢 Grandfather Father Son Entries: A robust 7-star buy signal. 5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands 🟢 Price is already under the Middle band. 🟢 After a strong expansion, the market is moving into contraction, indicating a potential bullish sideways move. 🟢 Squeeze breakout awaited. 🟢 Walking on the band not yet. 6️⃣ Strength According to ROC 🟢 Values: Nasdaq shows the highest rate of bullish sentiment compared to all other indices. 7️⃣ Sentiment Price action signals a clear long entry, but other dimensions like momentum and volatility tell a different story. Waiting for final volatility and momentum confirmation for a long position. ✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4 ✅ Entry TF Structure: Bullish ☑️ Current Move: Corrective ✔ Support Resistance Base: FVG demand area ☑️ Candles Behavior: Bullish signals intact - RSC, Long wicks, Doji, Inside, Momentum. ☑️ FIB Trigger Event: Occurred ☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Breached but not confirmed. 💡 Decision: It's prudent to wait until the price provides a proper internal structure breakout. Once a bullish BoS is confirmed, consider a buy. I will update entry, take profit, and stop levels when triggered. 🚀 Entry: ✋ Stop Loss: 🎯 Take Profit: 2nd Exit if Internal Structure changes, also Exit 3rd Trendline Breakout, FOMO. 😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 🕛 Expected Duration: SUMMARY: The analysis suggests a potential bullish reversal but advises caution until the price demonstrates a clear internal structure breakout. Various signals indicate a reversal, and a detailed plan will be updated upon market confirmation.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Optimum369
Nasdaq 100 - Sell (Double Top, H&S Pattern, 0.618 Fib Extension)- Double top formation forming on the Daily/Weekly chart - Head & Shoulders Pattern potential to form (2nd top in double top is the head of H&S patter) - Price has reached Fibo 0.618 extension, potential area for reversal - Mean reversion back to the long term trend line (excluding the inflationary impact of money printing) - News celebrating all time high, contrarian approach to avoid masses excitement/hysteria.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by BullBearBlair
2
NAS100 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Today is NFP and anything can happen, but according to my analytics that am using, which is universal to everyone, PRICE , PRICE MOVEMENTS , I would like to see a pullback to a Fib level 61.8 which perfectly fit with the previous resistance which is about to turn into Support if the level Holds. If not then I will be buying at the support level, why? Because the Index have 2 weeks in range, no clear move, and will apply the simple approach or rule of thumb which say's "BUY LOW & SELL HIGH", in this in case, according to my understanding when the price is at support, with the right tools one always have a chance to buy.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by juniormoseki1
NAS100USD ShortAccording to the index price movement, there is a formation of a rising flag, which might be a potential reversal hence a bearish momentum. Also, there is a bearish dragonfly doji candle according to the higher timeframes (1D), which might be a potential bearish reversal in the price. My entry point is at 15950 after the price has retested the support zone of the flag. SL at 16200, just above the resistance zone. Take Profit at 15200, with a R: R of 1:3. Note, that risk is only 1% of your account.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by Vapari_Inc