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US Inflation Trading Opportunities Ahead US Inflation Trading Opportunities Ahead The next two days' worth of trading could turn out to be particularly interesting due to the sharp drop in CPI expected on (US time) Tuesday as well as the market being (over?) confident that the Fed is going to pause its rate hiking cycle on Wednesday. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are factoring in a 74% probability of no hike. The inflation data released on Tuesday could further support the argument that inflation is decreasing. The consensus among analysts is that the consumer price index will reveal a drop in inflation to a 4.1% annual rate in May, compared to 4.9% in the previous month. A 74% chance means that stakes on the no-hike should be significant enough that if the market is wrong, a significant correction could be on the cards. A 74% chance is far from certain, and we might see a replay of what happened in the Canadian Dollar a week ago, where the market was confident that the BoC would continue its rate hike pause but was surprised when it came through with a 25bps hike. Assets to watch will be US indices, US dollar pairs, and gold. Last week, the S&P 500 achieved a significant milestone by gaining 20% from its October low. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite has experienced an even more remarkable performance, soaring 33% from its lowest point in the past 52 weeks. Optimism in these two indices might wane with inflation read above expectations (although the data is coming in too late to have a major impact on the Fed decision the following day). US dollar trades against the GBP might be in play with UK-based economic data causing a bit of turmoil and uncertainty. The Pound has recently declined from its highest point in the past year, which aligns with a rise in the two-year bond yield, reaching its highest level since the market turbulence that followed Liz Truss's mini-budget announcement.
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by BlackBull_Markets
Is the lagging S&P500 a better buy option than Nasdaq?Nasdaq's (NDX) incredible run (left chart) since the start of the year (+37%) has seen the index break above the Last Lower High of the Bear Cycle (13730) while at the same time avoiding a Death Cross on the 1W time-frame in epic fashion. It even broke above the RSI Resistance of the price's ATH (when the index was on its All Time High). At the same time, the S&P500 (SPX) is obviously lagging behind (right chart) as not only the RSI is below its ATH Resistance but the index itself is only now approaching the Last Lower High of the Bear Cycle. The question is, can the S&P500 be a better buy opportunity than Nasdaq since it is underperforming. Well being overperforming doesn't necessarily mean that Nasdaq is overvalued. Investors clearly thought at the start of the year that the technology sector would fuel the economy out of the 2022 inflationary Bear Cycle. However, it is also clear that the S&P has three target ahead of it (Last Lower High, First Lower High of Bear Cycle and the ATH), while Nasdaq two. In % terms, a ATH hit for the S&P500 from the current level would be a +12% rise, while for Nasdaq a 14.50% rise. Not that big of a difference on long-term terms and that has a lot to do with the fact that Nasdaq declined more that -37% during the 2022 Bear Cycle, while the S&P500 -27%. As a result, any buy between the two would be justified, even though a good pull-back on NDX would be more appealing to buy and couldn't be overlooked. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NDX
by TradingShot
12
NASDAQ One last bullish leg possible before exhaustion.Nasdaq (NDX) easily hit the 14350 Target that we called on our last analysis (see chart below) 10 days ago: The price even broke above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the All Time Highs and hit the top of the March 13 Channel Up. However there is still some room left before hitting the top of the long-term Channel Up that started after the January 06 market bottom. A pattern that supports this argument is the 1D RSI that is trading on Higher Highs similar to January 26 2023 and August 03 2022. Those was the last phase before the final Higher High that exhausted the trend and started a correction. As a result we will pursue one final upside target at 15000 and then most likely we will see a pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by TradingShot
13
NASDAQ Extending its rise to 14350 1W MA100 turned into Support.Nasdaq (NDX) hit last Thursday our long-term target (see idea below) of the August 16 2022 Resistance and even though it took longer than anticipated, it finally filled that Gap: The pattern that is directing the price action higher is a Rising Wedge and right now the price is very close to its top (Higher Highs trend-line). However coming off a 1D MACD Bullish Cross and more importantly having broken above the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) after more than a year, we expect an extension of this short-term bullish leg. Our target is slightly below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the November 2021 All Time High, at 14350. Key condition for this is to hold the 1W MA100 as its long-term Support now. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the short-term Support since January 20 (hasn't closed a 1D candle below it since then). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by TradingShot
2
Nasdaq is forming a Rising Wedge pattern!!!It seems that the Nasdaq is forming a Rising Wedge pattern near the 🔴 resistance zone($ 14,060-$ 13,610) 🔴. I expect the Nasdaq to start falling after touching the upper line of the rising wedge pattern and the resistance zone. Nasdaq's falling target could be the next 🟢 support zone($ 12,470-$ 12,040) 🟢. Nasdaq 100 Index Analyze (NDXUSD), Daily time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position that you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
NASDAQ:NDX
by pejman_zwin
28