NASDAQ Testing the 1W MA200. Is it on the brink of collapse?------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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This is the Nasdaq index (NDX) on the 1W time-frame, where it hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), for the first time since July 2010! Coupled with the 1W MACD just forming a Bearish Cross in the previous week, inevitably similarities emerge with the 2008 Housing Crisis.
And rightly so as until now, the 2022 correction has been very similar to October 2007 - July 2008. As you see after the index started falling initially, the price rebound at (or very close to in the case of 2022) the 1W MA200. The subsequent rebound, hit (or in the case of 2022 nearly hit) the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which in turn rejected the uptrend and turned the trend downwards again towards the 1W MA200.
It would appear that we are at this important level now where in July 2008 the 1W MA200 provided one last rebound before one final rejection on the 1W MA50 that on September 2008 broke below the 1W MA200 finally and caused a -42% collapse. Notice that the 1W Death Cross (MA50 crossing below the MA200), though a bearish pattern, it was formed right at the bottom of the Cear Cycle. Both then and now the 1W RSI was trading under Lower Highs, which when broke, signalled the start of the recovery and the new Bull Cycle. Also the 1W MACD took a Bearish - Bullish - Bearish Cross sequence before the -42% collapse.
What this chart shows is that the emphasis should be on the current test of the 1W MA200. A trend-line tested three times since February 2010 and provided extremely strong Bull Phases, with COVID crash (March 2020) being the most recent. A break below it, could initiate a 2008 type collapse, with a -40% from current levels placing the target around the COVID March 2020 Low (6650). On the other hand, it shows that the 1W MA50 is the current Resistance and if broken first (after it failed this August), it could invalidate the extension of the Bear Market and save the day for stocks.
What do you think will happen next?
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Nasdaqsignals
NASDAQ Neutral so far. See which break-outs to trade.The Nasdaq Index (NDX) staged a fair rebound yesterday on a Lower Lows trend-line that started on the September 01 Low. Today we see an early rejection on the futures market, which from one side is expected as the market is preparing for Wednesday's Fed Rate Decision. The 4H RSI however has been on Higher Lows since August 22, staging a Bullish Divergence.
The last similar Divergence was spotted during the May 12 - 20 Lower Lows. When the index broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the second time, it targeted the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, our short-term plan is to wait for either that 4H MA50 break-out and target the 4H MA200 or the Lower Lows break-out and target the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). As a side-note, notice how the index has been trading on symmetrical Lower Highs as well (Aug 26 and Sep 13), thus we can view the price action as a Channel Down. The 4H MA200 (our bullish target) is exactly at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of that Channel Down.
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NASDAQ Broke above the 1D MA50, targeting the 1D MA200 next!The Nasdaq Index (NDX) broke today (futures) above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and that was our condition that we set as requirement on our previous analysis in order to avoid a new sell-off:
With the 1D RSI on such a strong rise similar to those of June 16 and January 25, if the 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 today, we expect at least a short-term rally targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been always hit since the start of the year on similar rebound sequences (Feb 01, March 29).
On the longer-term, the index needs a break above the 1W MA100 (grey trend-line) in order to enter into long-term Bullish Territory, as it was that line that rejected the August 16 High. On the other hand, we are willing to take a sell again only below the 11930 Support, in which case we will target the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is the ultimate long-term Support.
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USTECH 100/NASDQ | Perspective for the week | Follow-up detailFollowing the strong sell that characterised this market in the last two weeks where we were able to scoop about 1,400 pips since my last publication on the index (see link below for reference purposes); we are currently at a critical point at around the $12,000 zone going into the new week. Are we going to be seeing buying potential during the coming week or a breakdown of the $12K zone will incite a plunge in the price of the index?
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NASDAQ 4H - Buy alert (HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE)NB|USE PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT
ENTRY PRICE:12500(BUY STOP)
STOPLOSS:12300
TAKE PROFIT:13200
NASDAQ has been bullish throughout the week it gives clarity for it to keep going higher as we have spotted a bullish divergence, the beautiful in the analysis showcases how powerful these patterns can be when patience is applied. Please note that not every set up will always work out as the market is forever changing. Let’s gear up for this bull run, yeah!?
NASDAQ Thinly supported. Needs a 1D MA50 break to avoid sell-offThe Nasdaq (NDX) index had a strong rejection these past 4 weeks exactly on the level we projected on our idea on August 04:
Right now it is trading below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which were its short-term Support levels and have now turned into Resistances as each have rejected upwards break-out attempts at least once.
Being on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and based on the RSI (1W time-frame), which just hit its MA line (yellow), NDX appears to be in a similar level its was during April 11 - 20. This consolidation led lower when its Support broke and dropped first to the previous Low (0.0 Fib) and then to Lower Lows on the -0.382 and -0.5 Fibs respectively. As a result, if the current Support breaks, we expect the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) to be tested, which is slightly above the 11040 Lot of June 16 and depending on the market conditions at the time (which we will surely update on), the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line), which is slightly above the -0.382 Fib.
On the bullish case, if the price breaks above the 1D MA50, consider it a buy break-out signal and target the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
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Nasdaq to continue bearishAugust closed with a very strong bearish candle with price failing to break 12991 area a very strong area of resistance. The price is now continuing to move down to previous lows of 11391, where if broken will create a new lower low. Keep a eye out for my analysis on the lower timeframes.
Good signal to buy NASDAQAccording to what was reported, despite the price of the Nasdaq index rebounding yesterday from the level of 12185.00, this will not affect the main bullish path due to its frequent pivot above the main support extending towards 11400.00 and the formation of the 11690.00 level for additional support
All of the above makes us wait for the price to gather positive momentum during the current period to facilitate the task of achieving breaching the 12270.00 level and reaching the additional positive stations that start from 12525.00 and 12900.00 respectively.
NASDAQ hit a Support cluster. Trading scenarios for September.The Nasdaq (NDX) index had a strong rejection these past 2 weeks exactly on the level we projected on our idea on August 04:
As you see, that level was the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level and the Resistance made from the May 05 High, which we predicted based on the symmetrical evidence with the February - March fractal. So far this has been working out perfectly, I can add that the rejection also took place exactly on the 1W MA100 (grey trend-line) and just shy off the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
This 2-week pull-back hit on Friday the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is an important Support cluster, assisted further by the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 16 Low.
What favors the bearish case is certainly the fact that the price got rejected on the 1W MA100 that was previously a Support (February 24, March 14) but is now establishing itself as a Resistance (May 05, August 16) and the inability to break above the 1D MA200, which is where the price was rejected on March 30. Those are in favor of the sequence continuing to repeat the Feb-March fractal, which sold-off to a new Lower Low.
The bullish case in however still backed up by the MACD Bullish Cross on the 1W time-frame that took place on July 22, which didn't happen previously in March or April. That strengthens further the 1D MA50/100 and June Higher Lows Support cluster. As long as that holds (staying above the now green Ichimoku Cloud), it should be more likely to retest the 1W MA100/ 1D MA200 Resistance Zone. As mentioned before, a candle close above that Resistance Zone should be enough to shift the long-term sentiment from bearish to bullish.
A close below the Higher Lows though, should deliver a test of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is the current long-term Support and if also broken, then the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line).
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NASDAQ The Put/Call Ratio shows it's time to buy stocks NOW!This is another stock index long-term analysis and this time our focus is on the Nasdaq (NDX). For better illustration we are displaying the Nasdaq as a line instead of candles (black trend-line) and the Put/ Call Ratio (blue trend-line) on the 1W time-frame.
First let's explain what this ratio is. Basically it is the number of put options divided by the number of call options. This is an indicator that essentially illustrates the pessimism/ optimism in the market, what market participants (investors, traders, funds etc) feel is going to happen in the (near at least) future. When it is rising it means that there is a lot of pessimism and more people are betting on the downside and when it falls it illustrates that more people expect an upside.
For this analysis we've put the MA20 of the Put/ Call Ratio (PCR) as it filters the noise more efficiently. As you see, since the October 10 2011 High, every PCR peak is made on a Lower Highs trend-line (dashed line) and the price gets rejected. When that pull-back happens, it effectively gives us a confirmed signal to buy stocks. This time the peak on the Lower Highs trend-line took place on the June 13 candle and as you see it turned out to be the most optimal place to buy as the index rose aggressively. The current rise though on the PCR is naturally translated into a Nasdaq pull-back put since the 2009 financial crisis, this happened most of the times and didn't affect the long-term bullish trend.
So will you take advantage of this pull-back?
P.S. Because the chart has added elements (PCR, Nasdaq) plotted that are not stable on the axis, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated:
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NASDAQ the 2Y yield and Interest RateThe Nasdaq index (NDX) has been on a strong rally since the mid June bottom but this week's pull-back is having a good part of investors worried. Well not without good reason as this is taking place after breaking its All Time High Lower Highs trend-line and but not its 1D MA200. However it may be a correction attributed to profit taking and this analysis will address that in relation to the US02Y (2 year bond yield illustrated in orange) and the Fed's Interest Rate (black trend-line).
As you see, the US02Y can be a leading indicator to what the Fed policy may be. In recent tightening Cycles, more particularly in November 2018, when the US02Y started to reverse downwards, it was an early indication that the Interest Rate would peak. Indeed, the monetary tightening policy turned flat and in a few months changed to monetary easing again, falling sharply downwards. The Nasdaq bottomed a little after the US02Y started falling.
This time, the mid June rally started just after the first sharp drop on the US02Y and following the yields' volatility, gave fuel to this sharp two month rise. At the same time the Interest Rate continues to rise but the Fed have issued a very supportive tone in their last meeting regarding the pace of tightening, a move that is obvious calmed the markets more than enough.
I want to focus on the similarities of these two corrections (2018 and 2022). In both cases, Nasdaq bottomed right after breaking its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, while holding the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) as the long-term Support.
Do you think this time is different or a similar 2019 rally will follow?
P.S. Because the chart has the added elements of the US02Y and Interest Rate plotted and are not constant, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated:
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Nasdaq100How I apply my strategy indicates a huge downside position after price declined 13561on a weekly time frame . I'm looking to collect over 450 points in a day or two from this trade setup I'm having . Have yourself a profitable end of the week
NASDAQ testing the most important long-term Resistance cluster.This is an update to last week's analysis as Nasdaq (NDX) is finally putting the long-term Resistance cluster to test. That consists of the May 05 High (13600), the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (13666) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been intact since April 05.
Basically the whole Lower Low - Lower High leg within the 8 month Channel Down, has been symmetrical to that of December 28 2021 - March 30 2022. It was again that same (analogous) Resistance cluster that rejected the index, formed the Lower High and initiated the next selling leg to a Lower Low. As you see on the chart, the price got rejected exactly on the 0.618 Fib/ Resistance level.
As a result we have a very low risk sell trade here, targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A 1W candle close above the 1D MA200 would constitute a bullish break-out and a trend shift on the long-term from bearish to bullish with a first target the 15300 March 29 High. We have to note that with the 1W MACD on the first Bullish Cross since November 2021 and the histogram on the first green 1W bars since also November, the bullish case is getting stronger especially amidst the encouraging inflation data these past few days.
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Daily analysis and trade setups on NASDAQ 20220810Happy Midweek, Happy CPI Day,
As mentioned in the analysis yesterday, bears did try to bring NDX below 13k. Bulls have bearly (barely 😇) managed to push it back > 13k.
Line in the sand today is 13070 for NQ_F
Macro: US CPI
Buy
Break: 13060 13180 13265 13325
Reversal: 12995 12930 12850 12790 12720 12940
Sell
Break: 13010 13945 13875 13800 12735
Reversal: 13200 13280 13340 13390 13455 13570
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
Daily analysis and trade setups on NASDAQ 20220808Happy New Week, Happy Monday,
Nothing significant on economic calendar today.
With academic vacation & summer in full swing, markets may range unless some geopolitical development happens.
Line in the sand is 13180
Buy
Break: 13260, 13350, 13420
Reversal: 13170, 13110, 13040, 13900, 12820
Sell
Break: 13180, 13120, 13050
Reversal: 13300, 13360, 13440, 13520, 13580
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Confluence fibs are here >>>
NASDAQ close to entering back to the bull marketNasdaq (NDX) extended the uptrend following the two clear break-out buy signals given by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MACD Bullish Cross, as we outlined on our previous analysis 3 weeks ago:
Perhaps the most important development since then is the closing above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which last time rejected the price (March 29) and formed a Lower High on the long-term Channel Down. This doesn't turn the trend bullish long-term. It remains bearish unless we break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which isn't that far off. It was that and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (13666 currently) that along with the 1D MA100 rejected the uptrend on the previous Lower High.
As a result a sell there with a tight SL on the 1D MA200 can be justified, targeting the 1D MA50 on the short-term. On the other hand, a close above the 1D MA200 should be considered a buy break-out signal, which can target the 15300 March 29 High.
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