NASDAQ It is now or never for tech.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Falling Wedge since its All Time Highs and contrary to the last analysis, it broke the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) and almost hit the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Falling Wedge.
As long as this holds, we can expect a rebound towards the Lower Highs trend-line (top) of the Wedge and more specifically the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which formed the previous Lower High and is currently around 14300. Notice how potentially, it could meet with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) there. The 1D RSI seems to be bouncing off the Pivot.
If on the other hand the Lower Lows trend-line breaks, the next Support level is the 12200 low of March 05 2021 but we doubt it will hold on panic selling and the hidden targets will be the -0.236 and -0.382 Fib extension at around 12115 and 11745 respectively.
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Nasdaqsignals
Nas100 New Entries + Exits (Best Reverse + Momentum Strat Ever)The 1on1 video is currently out, if you would like it in order to understand how to play my analysis FULLY, please let me know privately.
All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated!
How to play my chart:
Buy at support, sell at resistance. When you open this chart you'll see a green entry and a red entry. When the candlestick hits the green entry, you place a buy. If however that support buy doesn't go into profit and goes negative -35 or -60 pips (depending if it was a fast break/or if the break landed on a minute 15 zone), if it breaks you would then exit your buy and immediately enter the sell. You would then ride that sell down to green TP1, or you could then repeat and play the buy/break there.
The same exact thing goes for resistance sell/break plays!
NASDAQ (NAS100)The NASDAQ 100 index has been trading in downward trajectory since November 2021 which continues to be in progress. The selling pressure has built up over the past few days and the current short-term down swing retraced close to its support of 12,942 which is a key level to monitor. The prospects of 50 basis points interest rate hikes at the May, June and potentially July FOMC meetings set a risk-off market mood. Last week’s hawkish Fed comments sent U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar higher and triggered a broad-based sell-off in equity markets amid brewing reporting season. While initial support around the previous low of 12,942 could hold, short-term traders should monitor minor support of 13,432 as a break below it will signal an extension of the decline to 13,300. On the other hand, a break above minor resistance of 13,582 would indicate a likely rally to 13,700. The economic calendar for the US would feature March’s Durable Goods Orders, the US Gross Domestic Product for the Q1, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for March, alongside the Chicago PMI.
NASDAQ Approaching the 1W MA100 Support. Buy Signal.Nasdaq (NDX) saw a strong 1D candle rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday following Jerome Powell's comments on a potential May hike of 50 basis points. Technically this has been the 6th rejection on the 1D MA50 in the past 7 trading days and naturally it created a Lower Low on the medium-term.
This time the long-term trend-line are coming to center stage again as the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) is right below at 13431 and rising. During the recent "war correction" this level provided Support on Feb 24, March 08, 14 and 15. With the 1D RSI still on Higher Lows, and the Ichimoku well into the green zone, I expect the 1W MA100 to hold and target on the short-term the 1D MA50 and on the medium-term the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). As you see, the 1D MA100 along with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), rejected the price on April 05, the last Lower High of the Falling Wedge pattern, which is the dominant pattern since the All Time High of November. Basically the 1D MA100 is moving parallel to the Lower Highs of the Falling Wedge.
We can only expect further rise on the long-term, if the price breaks above the 1D MA200 and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
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Nasdaq100 What Now Episode 11Who’s In The Nasdaq And What Are They Doing?
Hey traders, so last week was really “Bearish with lot of annoying ranges”.. The major structure though, bearish. That didn’t stop the bulls from just messing around with “#ME!”. Pretty annoying.. Haha. Anyway, the plan was bearish until there was a reason to buy—that’s what I did. Although, Tuesday changed that plan.
Before I dive into that, These were my exact words for last week—“.. since all levels are pointing downwards, even the relative strength index are all below 50%, I'll be taking more of sells till there's a change in the trend. If the Nasdaq100 gives us a higher-low instead of lower-low, then BUYS!!!..”
The Nasdaq100 never gave is that Higher-low. Instead, the lady just kept falling like she fell off the Dubai’s Burj Khalifa’s Balcony. Rubbish!!! 😂😩
Anyway, back to Tuesday. The CPI (consumer’s price index). Dude! (In peter parker’s voice) This CPI ain’t a joke though. You know how I said the Bears came in—but the bulls didn’t stop fooling around. It’s this guy’s fault. The Bulls went wild after the “negative 0.3%” release of the Consumer’s Price Index. I started wondering, what is this? Negative news with a positive reaction. Little did I know that it was all a re-group. In less than minutes—The bears 🐻 got their Mojo back. “Mutha-heffas”.This fight went on for a while though. On Wednesday came the PPI although 1.4% positive, the bears didn’t stop fighting their way back. Wouldn’t blame them after that negative 9.382 million Crude Oil Inventories release news. Guess what! Mixed.
That was the reaction of that one—we started going side-ways man. Then came Thursday’s News release: Retail sales with negative 0.5%, Core retail sales with positive 1.1%, and Finally, Initial Jobless claims with negative 185 thousand.. Hmm—that Jobless rate though. Gave the bears more strength in getting back. These guys took the market real low back to the 38% (13894) daily fib and even went past it. It seemed like the bulls finally got their strength but sorry they got attacked almost immediately.
This week, the trading plan still remains the same. Little tweak though. Firstly, know the over-all direction. For this one---my best bet is downwards. honestly, the weekly looks more confused as ever. There's a possibility that we might get a higher-low but until that's established, I'll be taking my sells. Secondly, Marking major HHs/HLs and LHs/LLs. Looking to see rejections on the daily to give me a signal as to what these bears are really doing. Then for the time-frame task, The weekly and daily: directions, The hour 4: rejections, the 15 minutes: entries. Then I wait for them confirmations and execute! Hope that goes well? The relative strength index is actually below 50% n all these time-frames and the fibs below the 50%. Till then, I'll be looking at that 13583 daily fib level. Now, the news..
Nasdaq100 High Impact News For 18th-22th Of April, 2022
On Monday 18th of April, 2022. There will be no high impact news for this guy. However, Tuesday the 19th, by 13:30 GMT---We've got "The Building Permits". The Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Wednesday, 20th April,2022. By 15:00 GMT, The gist is Existing Home sales. A brief: Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Still Wednesday and the crude oil inventories holds by 15:30 GMT. A Brief: The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation. If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected. If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.
Further-more, Thursday the 21st of April, 2022. Around 13:30 GMT, My all time favorite (only because it's frequent) will take place. Here's a brief incase you forgot---Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Same day; same time is the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Finally, same day but by 16:00 and 18:00 respectively. We'll be having a back-to-back FED meeting. Here's a brief---Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (Feb. 2018 – Feb. 2022) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar's value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.
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NASDAQ Inverse Head and Shoulders reboundI have been following this Falling Wedge pattern on Nasdaq (NDX) on the 1D time-frame for a month. My most recent post on this was the following:
As the price almost reached the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which is a symmetrical Support, it is time to update my outlook on the index. The 1D RSI made a bounce on its Higher Lows trend-line since January 25 and in doing so, a new pattern has emerged, an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S). It appears that we are currently on the Right Shoulder, which should push for a rebound.
As mentioned before, the natural barrier is the Lower Highs trend-line of the December 28 2021 High and then the technical Resistance of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level within 15,250 - 15,280. A break above, restores the long-term trend on Nasdaq, and should target the 0.786 Fib (15,870) and then the 16,670 High. A break below the 0.236 Fib, should make one more leg downwards to re-test the 1W MA100 (red trend-line).
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NAS100 bullish forecast but first look out for this!Hello traders,
Happy to be back here after a short break. Let's start of with Nas100 as usual.
Technically, we have seen significant developments the past couple of weeks. With U.S. stocks rising tremendously the past weeks due to the Federal Reserve approving to hike interest rate for the first time in more than three years since December 2018. Recently we saw downward slight correction in giant stocks that also sent Nas100 down from its recent high of 15270.00, correcting with at least -7.50% as of time of writing.
At this very moment, we are not fully certain if the downward move will still continue and where it will end.
Meanwhile, I have spotted some signs of price reversal at around 14000.00-14200.00.
First: Looking at Daily or 4 hour time-frames I spotted a triple bottom, obviously a market structure that sponsored the move to the upside on 15 March 2022, fueled by FED interest rate hike. The market currently trading in the vicinity of the previous broken high that we can consider as our neckline. If this means a retest of the neckline we could see price reacting at this level and market resume its bullish move.
Second, on lower time-frame. I have spotted a broadening Descending Wedge, a classic pattern considered as a reversal sign. If all these play out accordingly, we could see price reversing up to resume the upward momentum that will eventually even take price higher. For proper buy entries, it is best to wait for the broadening descending wedge broken to the top to confirm buyers strength.
30 Minutes timeframe: Broadening Descending Wedge
We should still carefully consider how the market will respond during the New York session opening today. We can expect fake moves to the downside or we can expect a strong impulse to the downside if sellers continue to press harder. If bears do press harder and break the 14000 psychological level and defend it, then our next support will be 13840.00 and 12950.
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NASDAQ going according to last week's plan. Eyes on 1D MA50/100.Nasdaq (NDX)has is following exactly last week's suggested trading plan so far, as it pulled-back from the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and today reached the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line):
This pull-back took place primarily because the index failed to break above the Lower Highs trend-line of the December 28 High and got rejected two times. So far, as I displayed with the green Triangle, this is a neutral zone. Some scalping value can be found within. However the medium-term trend is about to be revealed:
* A break below the 1D MA50 (needs a 1D candle closing below), which is also the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, opens the way for more selling towards Fib 0.236 (13815) and the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which supported twice before on February 24 and March 15.
* A break above the Lower Highs or better yet the 1D MA200, which is also the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, restores the bullish trend aiming at Fib 0.786 (15870) and the 16670 High. The 1D RSI so far favors the bullish scenario.
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NASDAQ SHORTS 📉📉📉📉 NASDAQ/US100 - Market Analysis for the upcoming week.
What do you think ? Comment below..
NASDAQ last barrier to break. Consolidation until then.On my most recent Nasdaq analysis 2 weeks ago, I laid out the key pressure levels of the uptrend that started after the March 15 bottom:
As you see, the index invalidated the Channel Down and by breaking above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it naturally reached as high as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which broke yesterday. However, it is clear that the wider pattern has been a Falling Wedge and not surprisingly, the index is currently struggling to break above its Lower Highs (top) trend-line.
If the news of this week (starting today with the GDP and completing on Friday with the Nonfarm Payrolls) turn out bullish enough to manage a break above the Wedge, then NDX will target the next Fib in line, the 0.786 retracement level (15870) and then complete the correction's recovery at 16670 (requirement is for one 1D candle to close above each Resistance level). Notice how yesterday's top came exactly on the 0.618 Fib.
If however the price gets rejected on the Lower Highs (and 0.618 Fib), expect a short-term consolidation within the two MA periods, with the 1D MA50 in support. Breaking below the 1D MA50 will be far from ideal, putting at risk the 0.236 Fib and the March 15 Support.
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NASDAQ Still bearish despite the RSI break-outNasdaq has been trading within a Channel Down since the January 24 Low. The index is approaching today the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel and will remain bearish, unless it breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which comfortably sits just above the top of the Channel. That should target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which trends just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
If the price is rejected though at the top of the Channel Down or on the 1D MA50, expect a re-test of the 12930 Support and if broken the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. It has to be said though that the 1D RSI broke yesterday above the Lower Highs trend-line since November 04. That is the first bullish sign since the correction started.
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Nasdaq 100 What Now?So it's a new week in Nasdaq and I can tell the bears are not done. we've got the market still struggling at the 13750/700 support level here on the 240.
Guys I've got a theory and trading plan. it all depend on the opening a bearish opening leave room for speculations likewise a bullish.
However, on the daily, we've got a cross where if the ears break, then we've got a wick to fill and if not, then another bullish divergence that takes us to create a higher-high
Levels to consider:
13750/13700---Our current deciding factor.
13500-13000---If the ears break past the 13700 support that should be a new target.
13700-14000---The bulls would prove their strength once these levels are broken.
Be sure to follow me, like and comment to keep the community of Nasdaq100 lovers alive.
Love,
Lazyluchi.
Nas100 bearish outlook and NFP expectationTraders, due to the tension between Russia and Ukraine the stock market was left volatile the past days and without clear indication as to where it is heading. But looking at the technical aspect of Nas100 we can only tell that it is in a strong bearish momentum and bulls are finding it hard to push price further high. Price dropped at around 14400 and we see it again trading within the falling channel. My expectations in few minutes during NFP are to see price rolling down and perhaps bears pushing price lower targeting 13200 or at least 13000 if possible.
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NAS100 - Next Swing Low for Potential Buyers😍Previously -
Simple, we like to see price drop for us to add to our long positions
Use our analysis as a sentiment
Analysis is only 1 piece of the puzzle 🧩
Our analysis is a sentiment for the upcoming week, month.
Use this as a weather forecast, you are the person that has to put on a jacket when it’s raining.
Trade this sentiment based off your own entry strategy at the right time.
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Trade with the manipulation👾
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NASDAQ changing channel bands for the next 10 years?This is Nasdaq on the 1M time-frame since the recovery from the sub-prime mortgage crisis was set in motion in 2010.
As shown, the index has been trading within a Channel Up (log chart) from 2010 until mid 2020. Then in July 2020, it appears that NDX switched bands to one zone higher, illustrated perfectly by using the Fibonacci Channel extensions. As you see, since July 2020, the Fib 1.0 level which was previously the Resistance (top/ Higher Highs trend-line) of the former 2010 - 2020 Channel, has turned into a Support (bottom/ Higher Lows trend-line), and is being currently tested by the current 1M candle of February.
Every such Channel bottom test, has been a unique long-term buy opportunity during these +10 years. With the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) rising rapidly towards the 1.0 Fib level, do you think that will turn into a Support for the next 10 years? Based on this pattern, that looks like the most probable scenario.
P.S. Check also the very consistent Resistance and Support levels on the RSI.
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Nas100 remains under pressure and downward move is more likelyNas100 remains under pressure and downward move is more likely to happen. Same applies to US 30 and S&P 500.
Looking at market structure with lower highs and lower lows getting printed we can expect bulls to still have a challenging moment. As I mentioned last time in my previous idea bears are still in domination and they eye the 13000 psychological level.
Only if 14000 should be breached above and bulls defend this level we can see price reaching to the nearest high of 14600. At this moment there's high possibility that bears will push price lower at least printing a new low.
We will wait for proper confirmation to confirm the direction of the market. My bias is still bearish at the moment.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have different idea on this.
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