NASDAQ RSI hit the long-term Buy ZoneNasdaq is giving a double long-term buy signal as besides the RSI on the 1D time-frame entering the Buy Zone that has been in effect since the March 2020 market crash, the price itself hit the Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding since the November 2020 U.S. elections bottom. The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is right below as it was on all 3 major bottoms of 2021 (March 05, May 13, October 04).
We expect the Channel Up top again around 18000 (1.786 Fibonacci extension) by the end of March.
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Nasdaqsignals
Nasdaq Index - Bull or bear market more likely?I got a bit of criticism over not being clear enough in my previous chart. So i have created specifically a Nasdaq index chart which will show my thinking more clearly.
The Nasdaq index back at the start of 2000 was the bull market to end bull markets. The innovation of using the internet was a technological revolution and no one saw an end to the bull market...until it ended.
The end coincided with a break of medium term trendline as the internet startups folded one by one. From that point onwards the Nasdaq entered a brear market and didn't recover the old highs for another 15 years.
We're in a similiar position today, with the fed about to raise rates to control inflation, no one appears to think the impossible is possible.
It is.
If we break this medium term trendline, which appears to be very close to breaking (2 weekly closes below the line would confirm a break), we would expect a bear market to follow. This could take decades to recover from.
What goes up, must also come down (at least a bit).
The fact that the nasdaq market cap is more than half comprised of only 6 companies, suggests that it is just as sensitive to a large correction today. Albeit the reasons for a bear market will be very different.
Easy money has distorted the markets and funds like Arkk that think 40% annualised returns are possible with these stocks may be signs that we are at frenzy level of bullishness (just like in 2000).
I do not expect the bear market to be as bad as the beginning of the millenium, however i do think it will be signficiant and it could be coming sooner than expected, with fed tightening expected to quicken.
NASDAQ testing the 1D MA50. Buy opportunity.I haven't updated my NDX outlook since December 17 but so far it appears to be trading according to plan after accurately catching that bottom:
Today the index made contact with the 1D MA50 again (blue trend-line) and that's a pattern we've seen before twice within this multi-month Channel Up on the chart.
As you see, every time Nasdaq approaches the previous High (Fib 1.0) following a Channel Up bottom, the price pulls back to the 1D MA50 (orange circle) and then the rise continues all the way to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we treat this pull-back as a mid-term buy opportunity, especially for those who missed the December bottom. Our target is 17600.
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Nas100 bulls are challenged at 15570 levelNas100 has been very dramatic at the start of the festive season. (Hahaha). It is direction is quite unpredictable. But here is one thing we can take notice of: we see a HTF rising channel and for days bears have been trying their best to push price to the support of this channel, but to no avail. Nas100 is held around 15570.00, a level that seems to challenge the bulls. A complete violation of this level we can expect a spike down to the support of the channel. Taking short positions should really be taken with caution at this point, at least using trailing stop once positions are filled. As for my part, I will carefully monitor price once it has reached the support of the channel for potential long positions.
We therefore need to be very patient to wait for price to give us clear direction and opportunities to enter positions.
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NASDAQ One last low is possible before new ATHNasdaq has been particularly week this month as yesterday's rejection saw the price back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again and near the December 03 low. We do remain inside a year-long Channel Up but the very structure of this pattern allows for one final Lower Low before making a bottom.
As you see on the chart, every time NDX broke the last Low of the previous uptrend (bold black line), the price dropped either around -8.50% or -12.00%, while the RSI bottomed within the 35.000 - 30.000 Support Zone. Neither of that has happened yet and technically when either of those happens first, then that would be a good estimate for a bottom on Nasdaq.
A -8.50% pull-back from the top would place the price at around 15,350 while a -12.00% at around 14,750. The latter however would mean a break below both the Channel Up and the Higher Lows trend-line that is holding since November 02 2020, while at the same time making a direct hit on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Thus I consider it far less likely. For a long-term trader, even the fact that we are currently around the 1D MA50, translates into a good buy opportunity.
Our Target on a 1.5 - 2.0 months horizon is 17600 which is slightly below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, a standard target for NDX after such a bottom.
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Nasdaq 100- Strong reversal can lead to continuationFor more than a year now(since Sept 2020), Nas100 is trading inside an ascending channel, and dips around support of this channel were constantly bought.
The correction of this trend, started last week, looks over and we have a very strong bullish engulfing candle on our daily chart.
This candle can lead to continuation to the upside and a new ATH could be reached.
The upper boundary of the channel can provide resistance and exit point for short to medium-term traders and only price under 15.500 would be bearish for US100.
Buy dips is my strategy for this index
NASDAQ may break even higher than its Channel UpAs mentioned on my previous analysis, the Lower High divergence on the 1D RSI was the signal that Nasdaq would pull-back. The small technical correction eventually ended at around -7% from the top, exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As I've mentioned before, this is generally considered a solid first buy entry.
The current chart shows that after a similar correction (8 to 8.50% roughly), NDX always starts a 2 month rise towards the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. The point of bullish break-out is typically when the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, which is currently close to happening. Previously that has coincided with the break above the internal Lower Highs trend-line.
The 1.786 Fib extension is currently a little over 17700. If that takes place within the next 2 months, we may see the dominant 9-month Channel Up break upwards and transcend into the Diverging Channel Up displayed in orange. Regardless of that, our next two long-term targets are 17000 and 17600.
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Nasdaq- No Christmas rally this year?After reaching a new all-time high at 16700, Nasdaq fell 1000 points pretty quickly, just to find support in the old ATH's zone.
From here, bulls took control and elevated the price again.
At this moment Nas100 is trading in a strong resistance zone and a new leg down could follow from here.
On the other hand, a break above this resistance could mean further gains for the index and, indeed, a nice Christmas for bulls with a new ATH
Nas100 Weekly Breakdown: Reading charts like a pro📈📉Hello friends,
Today I have decided to share with you what I look for in the market and what helps me to predict market movements. In this idea, I have used Nas100 as an example. I am sharing this for educational purposes and also to shed light on the current market structures as well as future movement of Nas100. Some of you might find this beneficial and others won't. It doesn't really matters. Hahahaha.
First of all, we see that Nas100 printed a head and shoulders pattern the past weeks. What exactly is a head and shoulders pattern? According to Wikipedia: "Head and Shoulders formations consist of a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder and a line drawn as the neckline. The left shoulder is formed at the end of an extensive move during which volume is noticeably high. After the peak of the left shoulder is formed, there is a subsequent reaction and prices slide down somewhat, generally occurring on low volume. The prices rally up to form the head with normal or heavy volume and subsequent reaction downward is accompanied with lesser volume. The right shoulder is formed when prices move up again but remain below the central peak called the Head and fall down nearly equal to the first valley between the left shoulder and the head or at least below the peak of the left shoulder. Volume is lesser in the right shoulder formation compared to the left shoulder and the head formation. A neckline can be drawn across the bottoms of the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder. When prices break through this neckline and keep on falling after forming the right shoulder, it is the ultimate confirmation of the completion of the Head and Shoulders Top formation. It is quite possible that prices pull back to touch the neckline before continuing their declining trend." That make sense doesn't it?
For a head shoulders pattern to be completed, it should have a left peak (shoulder), top peak (head), right peak (shoulder) and a neckline. A neckline needs to be broken (sometimes retested) to validate the pattern and to ensure that the next impulsive move is likely to occur.
Let's look at the psychological human behavior behind the head and shoulders pattern (in this scenario, I will use the head and shoulders top like the one we currently see on Nas100). This will also help us to understand if this is a real head and shoulders or fake one (there can be fake ones that can give wrong signals, hahahaha). This will also help us to understand what really is in the in mind of traders both institutional traders and retail traders.
Please pay attention to my two arrows label X and Y.
X- Price rallied high and it did so strongly (the market moved very rapidly without resting and for sure people that bought during that time had big fat smiles😁). Now that is what we call an Impulsive Wave. Price pushed up, and from the neckline price began to take a break from a long run and it printed the Left Shoulder which can also be said as the higher high. Again, price pushed up and formed the head which can also be said as another higher high, this peak is higher than the previous high. Oops, that is the last time we saw buyers flexing their muscles. Sellers stepped in, pushing price to the neckline and from there buyers weren't strong enough to push price back to where they were brought from (head), instead sellers kept price at the same level as the left shoulder, which sponsored a strong reaction that violated the neckline and that became bears victory (a break of the neckline).
What is next for us? Since the neckline has been broken, how far should the fall be? Now here is where we get different answers. Some would tell you, first impulsive wave I labelled X is a shadow of what is to come, meaning what we should expect is the same impulsive wave to be printed at point Y, same length as X. It can make sense to some but it won't be to others. Here is a thing, whatever makes money for you is all what matters. What other people think is basically none of my business (sorry)😁, As long as the money is made. Right?
Yes!
We do not want to blindly follow what is in the books, what is taught and what is on the internet. We need to develop the mind of understanding and interpreting the current price action in the market. If we can do so on our own, that is maturity. Look at the market like you would look at a friend, you would understand and interpret your friend's feelings and emotions, when he is sad and when he is happy. The market, this thing called the financial market is dramatic, but if we only sit and try our best to understand and of course interpret the current mood in the market we can reap some measure of success.
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Wishing everyone the best this week.
Forexintelligence
nasdaq💰Fxone4all 💰FOREX💰,
🔴 NASDAQ (short )
Sell limit : 16400/ 16380
🔸TARGET💰
🔹16050
🔹 15940
🔹15717
🛑 STOP LOSE : 16500
NASDAQ resisting the selling pressure. Well supported for now.This is an update on my previous Nasdaq analysis where I called for potential further rise within a narrower Channel Up at the top of the longer-term Channel before a new technical correction comes:
So far this view has been confirmed as the Support of the previous Low (bold black line) is holding. See the similarities between now and the mid July - August Channel Up. The RSI sequences are almost the same following an identical RSI bearish divergence on Lower Highs. That should ultimately lead to a blow-off top around 17000.
If the small Channel Up breaks downwards and cracks the previous Low, I expect NDX to seek the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and if that doesn't hold either, possibly make a Low on the bottom of the 9-month Channel Up or even the Diverging Higher Lows trend-line.
Trade accordingly and with caution as Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report is very likely to shape the fundamental landscape of this month with regards to the Fed's taper program.
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Nas100 might rise to 16400 to complete the wedgeWe should expect further consolidations between 16000 and 16400 to complete the broadening wedge. There's high possibility that Nas100 will rise to complete the broadening wedge formation to the top side. A break above the wedge will attract more buying pressure and send price higher to 17000.00 and on the other hand, failure for bulls to break above the wedge, will attract more selling pressure and Nas100 will remain vulnerable to more weaknesses.
We should continue to monitor price and further developments while being vigilant with our positioning, following a very good trading plan.
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Nas100 will continue to rise after a retest of the necklineFriends, if you are enjoying my ideas please show your support with likes and do not forget to follow so you stay updated with new ideas.
Congratulations to everyone that followed the previous predictions and followed Nas100 from the bottom. As stated in my previous analyses, Nas100 formed a double bottom which the Neckline got violated to the top. We can expect price to retrace a bit down to retest the neckline before continuing higher. I expect price to react at the previous high before extending towards 17000.00.
Do also make sure to check out some of my previous ideas by following the links below.
Enjoy
nasdaq nas100 us100 This will be an interesting day, hit the premium point and head to the discounted point before heading to new premium zones.
Nas100 update: buy at the break of the necklineThe light is getting clearer, my bias still bullish for Nas100 for the fact that the November 2021 low wasn't breached by bears and this shows that their strength is getting diminished. Looking at current price action, we also see a possibility of a double bottom formation. If the neckline is violated, Nas100 will find its bottom at around 16110.00. For this setup to be more valid, the neckline must be violated to the top.
Please make sure to leave a like and if you have different opinion, please be kind and share your opinion in the comment section below.
Please consider checking my other ideas. follow the links below to see these previous ideas.
Trade smart!
Do not miss this Nas100 buy opportunity Congratulations to everyone that followed my previous sell idea. We saw a very strong drop on Nas100 the past 2 days, dropping with at least 3.80%. Looking at the technically aspect and market structure, we see that Nas100 has printed highs and lows which these Structures still holds. I expect bulls to push price above the November 2021 high and there I expect price to find support. A rise above 16400.00 will attract more buyers and price will be send higher targeting 17000 as the new high. Bears will have a struggle to fully violate the November 2021 high and the low.
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NASDAQ The level that has to holdNasdaq is ahead of critical crossroads as the Lower Highs on the RSI on the 1D time-frames show a bearish divergence against the Higher Highs of the actual price.
When the 1D RSI formed this sequence in the past, the index dropped at least -8% but only if the previous Low broke (black support). In mid July the Low held and Nasdaq continued on a small Channel Up towards one last Higher High before eventually correcting -8%.
As a result, I expect a Higher High as long as the previous low holds. If broken then a bottom on the Diverging Higher Lows trend-line is possible. In either case the next bullish target is 17000.
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nasdaq nas100 us100 Are you ready for this? we will witness a slight retracement to the daily and weekly value zones with support coming from the FIB points of retracement.
After consolidation, Nas100 will be ready to rise for 4000 pointAfter consolidation, Nas100 will be ready to rise for 4000 points.
🔍 Technical expectations:
🔹Further consolidation have to be expected around the local resistance.
🔹A break above the local resistance will send price higher and bears will likely have less control of the market.
🔹I see nothing that can hold the giant index back to reaching for new highs. It has always been on the rise and this is just a fresh new beginning for Nas100 to climb high seeing that it recently bounced up from the high timeframe support.
❗️Take note: Do not take my idea as a general advice or signal and act upon it without your own analysis. I encourage you to follow me that when I post new updates you get informed of this.
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Many wishes and trade smart!
Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio. Final stage of the BUBBLE?This is a simple yet very interesting chart illustrating the Nasdaq-to-S&P500 ratio since the 1980s.
As you see after a price stabilization in the 1980s, the ratio started to rise but steadily within a Channel Up since 1998. That was when the tech index (Nasdaq) took off fueled by the dot.com mania on a 2 year rally that eventually led to the dot.com crash of 2000.
The ratio has been trading within a similar Channel Up since the 2008/09 subprime mortgage crisis. Currently the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) are converging in a squeeze evetn that was seen in the 1990s Channel Up at the end of it, when NDX's parabolic rally started.
Does that mean that we are about to enter the final 2 year stage of the Bubble? Share your thoughts in the comments section.
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Nasdaq 100Nasdaq us100 up & down wait for it . Check my analysis hope it will b correct . If u like it . Comment please
NASDAQ vastly overbought on 1DSince my last long-term update on Nasdaq 25 days ago, the price accurately recovered from the September correction, and hit both of our targets:
Currently however the picture from a technical standpoint seems to be reversing again as the index is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 12 month Channel Up it has been trading on ever since September 2020.
The RSI in particular on the 1D time-frame is largely overbought and just a fraction away from the 80.000 Resistance which was last seen on the September 02 2020 market top. As you see on the chart that caused an immediate flash crash of more than -14%, with the index eventually finding support on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The 1D MA100 has been an accurate buy level within this Channel Up.
A repeat of this -14% correction, depending on where it strikes (I've put it at the top of the Channel Up), could even hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is a level the price hasn't made contact with since April 13 2020! Naturally, the strong medium-term swing buyers are expected to be found first on the 1D MA100 again and the long-term target set on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension around 17700.
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