Rate-cut optimism fueled risk-on mood, lifting US equities
July CPI showed little inflationary impact from tariffs, amplifying expectations for a September Fed cut. Optimism also returned for small-cap firms, previously seen as most vulnerable to tariff pressures. Headline CPI rose 2.7% YoY in July, 0.1% lower than a year earlier, with a 1.1% MoM drop in energy prices contributing to the overall decline.
BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder noted that shelter costs, the largest CPI component, slowed to their lowest since 2021, significantly boosting the odds of a September cut. He added that the Fed could take a more aggressive approach, with a 50bp cut at the September FOMC.
USTEC extended its sharp uptrend after breaching above the 23700 high. The widening gap between both EMAs indicates the potential continuation of bullish momentum. If USTEC holds above 23700, the index may gain upward momentum toward the psychological resistance at 24000. Conversely, if USTEC breaks below 23700, the index could retreat toward 23300.
