Get started

Natgas

NATURAL GAS-Pt.2- Short term bounce?In our previous post we explained how we believe that NaturalGas is ongoing an ABC correction from 9.995's top. Actually we believe to be finishing wave iii of C of this zig zag, as showed in the chart. As explained in the previous post, we were waiting for the small red zone in chart between 2.4 and 2.5, where the algo tp of the whole move down and the level for which wave iii of C = 1.618 wave i of C, together with the target of the big head and shoulder pattern stand. Since today we wicked that zone, we opened a long position at @2.471, and we are currently holding it with stop loss on entry. Since the retail sentiment is still very extreme towards the long side and since this wave iii can still extend down, we are carefully posing our stop loss on entry. Target is 4.32. We will update below. Happy trading!
NLong
by GMR-Capital
NATURAL GAS-Pt.1- Correction about to complete?Hello traders, here is our view about natural gas. As we can see from the monthly time frame, natgas completed an impulse after breaking a big descending triangle. After reaching a top of 9.995, natgas created a head and shoulders pattern that coincided with a 535 structure to the downside, as showed in the main chart. Then, wave 3 of C seems to be completed with an ending diagonal. If the bullish macro count is in now we should go for another impulse up. Alternatively, we may get a (C) wave to complete the monthly retracement higher than 10. In the latter case to move to 9.995 would only be a (A) cycle correction of the descent from 2005 high of 16.477. In both cases, we expect a big buying opportunity coming soon in natural gas. We are not taking long positions now for wave iv of C since sentiment in retail brokers is over 90% long. When ALL the retailers are buying, who is selling to them? Who is gonna buy to actually put upward pressure on price? This is why extreme sentiment is a contrary indicator. We will update as soon as we see a long setup.
N
by GMR-Capital
9
Oil continues to oscillate within the wide range For some time now, we have been skeptical about the overly bullish narrative in the oil market. Additionally, we have disagreed with calls for a return to triple-digit prices while noting multiple times that oil was likely to be choppy throughout 2023, oscillating within a wide range. In fact, we later presented a similar view from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which sees WTI crude oil average $77 per barrel in 2023. Today, we continue to stick to our previous assessment. Indeed, we are inclining toward the notion that oil will likely dip below $70 during the year (which may not be that far). However, we voice a word of caution as the price drop might be shortlived due to the U.S. administration seeking to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) at the lower end of $70. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. If the price breaks below the sloping support, it will bolster the bearish odds in the short term. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL. Additionally, it shows two simple moving averages (SMAs). The yellow arrow indicates the price retracement toward these SMAs. If the price holds above them, it will be bullish. Contrarily, if the price breaks below SMAs, it will be bearish in the short-term. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
10
Jan 30,22-NG-Almost long? Not so much!So NG price gapped down from the Big Boys on the weekend, putting the price of NG to almost a 2 year low. Not good for people like me that wanna go LONG and make some money. Anyway, hold onto your shorts and keep waiting for the low...someone told me maybe 2.5 - looks like maybe they were correct :-) Anyway, I'm still waiting (isn't that a song?) - doesn't look like anything is gonna change anytime soon. While the U.S. is in a cold snap right now, the long term forecast says seasonal norms so I don't see any crazy price spikes coming anytime soon. Guess we shall see if we can trade the S n P 500 on Wed depending on how much the Fed raises rates. Stay safe all. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!
by HEIKOTradingSystem
4
Will Exxon march higher or perform a fake out?Since our previous post on Exxon Mobil, it has increased significantly in value against our expectations. Unfortunately, with the upcoming earnings, the stock might get an additional boost in price, which is already hovering near all-time highs. As a result, XOM breaking above $114.66 will force us to abandon our price target on the downside. However, even if a breakout occurs, we will continue to pay close attention to subsequent price action and monitor volume very closely. To support the idea of a fakeout, we would like to see a continual drop in volume accompanying price growth on the daily chart (just like on the monthly chart). As for the outlook beyond the short-term, we remain worried that ranging oil prices between $70 and $85 per barrel will threaten the well-being of this stock title. Furthermore, higher taxes on energy companies, economic slowdown, and oil down more than 35% since its 2022 peak will put pressure on further price increases. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the hourly chart of XOM. The yellow arrow points to a technical glitch at NYSE, which saw multiple stock companies plunge and turn on circuit breakers. We can potentially discard this movement. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the monthly chart of XOM. The red arrow indicates a continual decline in volume, which is a bearish technical development. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the daily chart of XOM and the updated setup. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NYSE:XOM
by Tradersweekly
45
Jan 24,23-NG-Almost time to go longAs I mentioned in my post, 2 posts ago, I expect price to settle around 3. We had a little spike up in price but then it came right back down and now is under 3.2 So I will be watching closely to get in at 3.2, preferably lower if price goes lower. Every 100 points I will move my Buy Order lower to keep in step with the price lowering. Currently I'm in for a Buy Order at 3.2 Price might not go up too much or at all until next week. Watch out for the weekend Gap Ups or Gap Down from the 'Big Boys'... I expect I my order will get filled before end of day Friday. Take care and stay safe all. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
15
Go Long Crude and Nat GasCrude bounced smartly off of 79.69 twice, with the 2nd test just happening in the Euro session this morning. It has returned to 80.40ish level. This sets up nice for a move back to 81.80 level to try to break the short at the 61.8% line of the recent downtrend. If it can do that, it will open up further moves to the 83-84 area. And, Nat Gas has went down and tested it's low, not breaking it decisevily. This looks like a range. So, I would cover your short nat gas positions and looks to get long on any further strength that this potential 3.10 - 3.60 range presents.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CeresTrader
Crude and Nat Gas Update - Shorts are working but beware!We have been short energy since the gap up on Sunday. Now, it's time to lock profits in, especially in crude oil. The bounce off the lows today coincided with a 50% Long of the upmove, to the tick. That is a warning. Those in shorts above 81.08 might let it ride, as that is the 61.8% retrace. However, given the hit to the tick of the 50% long, we are inclined to lift the short. Nat Gas has continued to work lower, albeit in choppy trade. We have been sellers above 3.50 and think that it can go lower, to that $2.90 mark from here. Lock in gains on any move below $3.00.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CeresTrader
NATURAL GAS Astounding multi-year Cycles showing sell's not overThis is not the first time we look into Natural Gas (NG1!) and its long-term patterns. We have coined its Multi-year Cycles Theory in the past and it is time to extend on it a little on the 1W time-frame. Typically investors ask us for 1D analysis such as the following we published 2 months ago (November 24 2022) and helped us identify the conditions that would fulfil the long-term bearish reversal we expected: As you see NG delivered the expected drop since it closed below its 1W MA100 and even hit and closed below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Based on this multi-decade blueprint, this is a strong bearish continuation signal. As the chart shows, NG technically makes 4 year Cycles (bottom-to-bottom, top-to-top), which failed only one time in 30 years. Based on this, there is still significant time and range for the price to drop. The first stop is the (grey) High Volatility Zone, where the price typically trades for a longer-than-usual period of time. We need to keep an eye on the RSI on the 1M time-frame and its Higher Lows trend-line. If its holds, expect a bounce, in a similar fashion as the Lower Highs from May 2009 to February 2016. If they break, we expect first the 1.600 level to be tested as a Support and potentially under conditions (which we will analyze extensively if this time comes), the prices Lower Lows trend-line. Keep in mind that the RSI is always helpful and in recent months in particular, as its Bearish Divergence on Lower Highs (against the price's Higher Highs) from September 2021 to August 2022 projected the peak. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TradingShot
4
Jan 21,23-NG-Price will settle around 3As you can see from the chart, somewhere between 2.8 and 3 is where the outside Linear Regression line is and that is where price will probably stabalize for the next while, until some force pushes price up....either weather, the War, Politics or some combination of all 3. Keep a close eye as 3 is a Support level. Weather is supposed to turn colder also, however, storage is pretty full, so I'm guesing until the EIA report shows a significant drop is reserves, or if the cold snap turns into a 4 week cold spell, price won't move too much. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
5
SWN Southwestern Energy. The Best Play on US Natural Gas ExportsI've held this investment for over a year now. Average price is around 5.8. It has not done anything in terms of stock price but the company's financials improved big time and they are bringing in massive free cash flow. In the next couple years they pay down their debt and get a big pop next time Natural Gas has good times. I feel good in it still think it's cheap and that the market just doesn't know it yet. The last year has been a hard times for stocks too. Target for SWN is at least $14
SLong
by inanis_
1