Natgas
Natural Gas - Bigger correction in this area?Hello traders,
Today we will do an analysis for NATGAS. This commodity is in a big downtrend on the daily and weekly timeframe that started in August 2022. For now the higher probability move is a bigger correction in this area. On the 4h timeframe we expect the price to move to the upside and break the previous local high that it made on the 3rd of March. Once it reaches the area of the magenta rectangle marked on the chart we must see if we will have a continuation to the downside or it will continue making a bigger correction (upside).
Another possible scenario is a move to the downside that coincides with the 70,5% Fibonacci retracement and then a move to the upside to break the local high.
Please don't jump in, wait for your setups, no matter what, and don't risk more than 1% of your capital.
UNG - Natural Gas ETF - Potential Double Bottom Support PlayUNG (US Natural Gas ETF) has formed a double-bottom price pattern on the Daily chart.
The Price has found temporary support above $8.21.
Support Price Targets are: $8.21, $8.16, $7.72, $6.11.
Resistance Price Targets are: $8.99, $9.93, $10.97, $11.97.
UNG etf does not always correlate & follow technical analysis charts.
Be aware of global fundamental news changes regarding energy assets (government policies, corporate policies, supply & demand, etc).
Mar 18,23-NG-Turnaround this week? YES!As we know, NG has stayed down and storage is at an all time high - U.K. NG is at an 18 month low. Weather has been exceptionally warm in the U.S. the last 8 weeks, hence the huge amount in storage.
My thinking is the following:
There is a quick cold snap this week where it will start to warm up again on Fri,,,
It's almost the end of this contract...most of the time, price moves up as contract end nears - not always, but a lot of the time.
Where is the bottom? I believe in and around 2 is the bottom. It's going to be hard for price to STAY below 2 for long. Sure, it might dip down to 1.5 for a day or two, then right back up again around 2.
Therefore, I am choosing 2 or maybe 1.9 or 1.8 as a good spot to go long - even if it's just until friday this week, then get out. Hopefully price goes up to 2.5 and I take my 500 or so points profit and run.
I might be wrong, but that's how I'm going to play this week. I will be watching price action closely Sun night as NG comes online. If price is flat or turns negative slightly, I will lower my entry price to 1.9 or 1.8.
Stay tuned this week for more posts. Stay safe and trade smart.
Heiko
Natural Gas Full Bear Control. Short term 15m EMA 12 Guide- NG UNG is on a downtrend in every time frame, bears are in full control.
- Bulls would hope we hold the 52 week low
- need an hourly trend change back to the bulls for we to potentially get a 4h and daily bounce going and shape up an Equilibrium pattern.
- short term intra-day 15m 12 EMA is our guide for full bear control.
- I definitely wouldn't be shorting all the way down here but also there's no signs for me to be interested long as well atm unless bulls can start to shape up some hourly trend change.
$UNG to sub $2? I know this would be a crazy move and I have no clue what would cause it, but the chart says that this is a possibility.
As you can see, the chart has formed a H&S pattern and is breaking down. If you take the length of the pattern and extend it down past the breakdown, you get a price target of sub $2. Maybe this is a move that plays out like oil did in 2020?
$NG $UNG $BOIL Where Price would be for the Next couple weeks- UNG NG BOIL have retraced over 50% fib of the A to B move from the bottom, that's a clear sign that we will likely get an equilibrium base on how significant these swings are.
- NG has a tendency to break a resistance and have no follow through vice versa breaking a support and have no follow through so im looking for a equilibrium tightening up price action the next couple weeks.
- Short term bears still in full control
Mar 9,22-NG-Pullback is here-TurnaroundAs I said in my last post, price dropped this week. Question is, with the jobs report tomorrow, will price plummet? Or Rebound?
THis is the question I am battling with. I will be watching closely and if price continues to fall overnight and into the moments leading up to the report, I might put in a Buy ORder in case price sky rockets.
We shall see. As for next week, will price go back up to 3ish? Or will price just go sideways for a while. Hard to say, especially because there appears to be no end in sight for the War.
Stay tuned.
Heiko
Pullback to 2.582 before another bull runNG likely to pullback to this support area highlighted at 2.582 before pushing off to another bull run. This area was previously the area of consolidation as well. This pullback seems to be short term corrective.
NATGAS Long- Used SFP & Breaker Order Block, with confluence SFP at the Monday low on 12H, 4H, and 1H
- MSB to the upside on the 30m buying retest of Breaker Order Block
- TP1 will be Monday's high, will reassess there but there's a possibility of filling the gap at ~2.93 and could hit 1D FVG at ~3.05
USOIL stuck between $70 and $82A month ago, we noted that USOIL would likely stay stuck within the wide range between $70 and $82. We outlined several developments that pointed to a neutral trend and said that even if the price fell below $70, we would expect it to be shortlived due to the U.S. administration seeking to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) near that price tag. A week later, the U.S. announced it would release 26 million barrels of crude oil into the market (in line with its mandate). However, based on the publicly available data, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves have remained unchanged since the start of 2023, at 371.58 million barrels. That indicates U.S. officials are waiting for a higher oil price at which they could unload their reserves at a profit. With the price of USOIL approaching $80 per barrel, this event might not be that far away. Our view has not changed; we still expect the oil price to stay choppy within the wide range for an unforeseeable future.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL within the wide range and two simple moving averages. Previously, we said that the flattening of these moving averages indicated a neutral trend.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Mar 5,23-NG-is this the pullback?Last week NG went up a hell of a lot...are we ready for a pullback now? We shall see how this week plays out. Should be crazy with the Fed raising rates again on Wed.
If this week closes below 2.6, maybe NG will fall back to 2 next week.
If price action falls anywhere close to 2 THIS week, I will put in a buy order for price to return to the 3 zone.
Heiko
Natural Gas $NG $UNG $BOIL Tips for Riding your Profit- 4H 12EMALast weeks NG video i mentioned that this is likely a climax bottom and we are heading higher with potential inverse H&S pattern, it ended up playing out in the hourly time frame and bulls were a lot stronger than i expected.
- Looking at the 4h time frame 12 EMA as full bull control support if we don't lose it then we wont be getting 4h and daily consolidation yet.
- im still holding my $BOIL position (it 2x leverage of UNG) its a small position so i'm letting it ride at least 20~30% of course ill still be watching how we consolidate on 4h and daily time frame will tell me a lot if the bull move will continue.
Feb 28,22 - Closing Order with 400pt ProfitNice little profit maker there...I'm not sure whats going to happen on Thursday with the storage report, hence I'm taking my profit and running.
Also, this is the 5th day in a row of gains for NG so I'm going to wait for a pullback and get back in. I'm assuming price will drop some as people take profits from this last little bull run.
I'll post by Friday again.
Heiko
Natural Gas gaining momentumThe rally continues, what's next for Natural Gas?
Massive long term reversal signals on watch.