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Natgas

NATGAS // officially in a short trend on the weeklyNATGAS closed below the starting point of the last impulse wave up, meaning the trend has turned on the weekly chart as well. This short trend is valid until the brown validity zone is taken back by the buyers. Any move up is only a correction of the south impulse wave, and a break of this countertrend makes the price fall. Of course, it can go on falling, but a countertrend may come soon. Trade safe! ⚪️⚫️ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter. WE JUST REACT! Remember that trading is a business. SIZE your TRADES according to your risk aversion! ----------------------------------------------------------
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by TheMarketFlow
NATURAL GAS: HUGE OPPORTUNITYHi guys, following my recent analysis on silver, i'm looking also at Natgas. In my opinion this winter we'll see many problem in Europe and if governments try to save many countries, we'll see the price fall but then rise in the coming months, just after this winter. Why? Well governments will try to save countries in the short term "printing money" (i mean with interest rate, qe, etc) but then they will be forced to did a step back pushing the price up. Europe need gas, it's improbable to not see the price go up. Be prepared and let's see.
PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS
by yellow_ag
Natural Gas / NG - It's Officially a Bear. Now, Hold My BeerThis post is a continuation of a previous post, which is based on a longer-term analysis: Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? With Wednesday-Friday and Monday morning's long-awaited dump into the fabled double bottom around $7.4, natural gas can only be considered to have formally shifted into a bearish market structure, based on both the 4H and Daily candles. Note that the dump also breached range equilibrium. What this means, is that it's finally time to look for a 45-day short play on natural gas. Remember, Freeport is supposed to re-open for export to Europe in mid-November, so in principle you'd want to see the downside manipulation occur before then. However, all this time, big firms have been shipping U.S. natural gas via boat to Europe, and making more than $100 million a shipment in the process . Demand has been so enormous that there aren't enough ships on the planet available to meet it. So it's not that U.S. Henry Hub pricing hasn't reflected the demand problem caused by Europe shooting itself in the knees trying to spite Putin and Russia so it can fit in with cool kids in the Globalist Bloc. It has. It's just that the reality is, no matter the news and how it's framed, an energy crisis is coming to North America too. You just won't see it until inflation starts to dip. Energy prices have to come down for inflation to dip. Once inflation dips, it will rip again, because it hasn't topped yet. Anyone who says inflation has peaked obviously can't read The Diagram, and nobody who is unable to read The Diagram is worthy of being a Doctor. Regarding price action, once something as turbulent as natural gas dumps, and dumps a lot, and takes out key pivots, you have to be careful. At present the market makers are still employing these patterns where they seek and destroy to the downside and then quickly seek and destroy the upside. It's very hard to catch a truly trending market at the moment, and so you have to employ a surgical strike style of trading and positioning rather than trying to get long or get short and rack up the Sklansky Bucks comfortably. For example, the stock indexes look like they're going to bounce, and probably hard, before the next big leg down, regardless of what comes out of Wednesday's FOMC: SPX500 / ES - It's Still a Bull. Now, Good Luck Riding It With natural gas, what I'm really looking for here to position puts for November is a bounce into the $8.9 range. The problem is, the natural gas market makers are not so polite. They don't want you along for their ride. It's their ride, and if you're good enough to figure it out, you can make money. But if you can't, they will buck you off and you can watch from the sidelines. They're a lot like angry cowboys, and so there is a possibility that is far from negligible that a number like $9.6 prints again before we see the next move down. Or at least a number that starts with $9. Regardless, in my opinion, once this bear is finished growling and knocking over trees, we will actually begin to see trending markets again. They won't trend for all that long, but you won't get bounces this time. It'll just landslide or gap down to where it wants to go and collect all the badly positioned longs or the longs who somehow never took profit during a run to $10. WTI Oil, likewise, is in the same boat. WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind Bulls Although its price pattern is more notable in that it once again traded back to the $81 gap and bounced again. If it runs the $91 double top it left behind and keeps going up, it might just be a bull run again. But if it just crushes $91 and starts to fall, you can surely expect numbers like $69 and $50 are en route, no matter what the fundamentals say about global demand. What you're ultimately looking at with the positioning of the markets, whether it be copper, soybeans, stocks, is you're looking at first some bouncing and then what is likely a market-wide sell off with some days of panic that is simultaneously subdued and overexaggerated. All of which is designed to have you sell low and then buy back higher with half your account left intact. Consider that last week's CPI dump took 200 points from the SPX in a few hours, but only raised the VIX by like 3 points. VIX 28 is now a ceiling. VIX 40-42 will be where you find the bottoms. VIX 72 will come when the markets truly start to head to the downside. After the global avalanche is finished, you'll likely see the Nasdaq be extremely strong for a few months. SPX will be okay, but will be drug down by energy companies, which won't do particularly well because they'll be drug down by natural gas and WTI accumulating at low prices. Dow will probably be better than SPX but worse than Nasdaq on account of its defense contractors likewise accumulating at low prices. Once retail is done gorging themselves stupid on $30 SNAP and $45 BBBY and $198 AAPL, reality will unfold. Stocks will crash, hard. WTI and Natural Gas and other commodities (Except for silver and gold. Seriously. Quit being a moonboy on ancap stuff. It'll rot your teeth.) will make major new highs and energy companies and defense contractors will become the safe haven in the markets. When those days unfold, you can expect major geopolitical turbulence, which can include as much as the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party. You can also see significant natural and manmade disasters unfold. It won't be a pleasant time. But you should know that what unfolds will appear chaotic but actually be orderly. Everything unfolding in the world is orderly and well arranged. This world will not be destroyed, although there will be significant hardship for many regions, and few will find the outcome comfortable. But for now, you can focus on trying to make money. You have the difficult task of trying to find a time to short natural gas inside of a 15% possible range. You can short $8.9, but they really might take that $9.3 pivot. If you wait for the $9.3 pivot, you might not get filled and miss the move. This kind of move back up is also designed to dump the ETFs, many of which trade on 2x leverage (10% natural gas move = 20% ETF dump), so big pockets can get fat long for the real dump. It's very annoying. They're really very annoying about how they do things. It's a constant gut check and a series of difficult and suboptimal circumstances, because time is an excellent weapon and they use it very well. You should know that all the decisions you face when trading and all the loss and gain you come across are actually opportunities to cultivate your mind and your heart. They're chances to improve. Every thought and feeling you have while doing this is you forging yourself like quicksilver being refined inside of a crucible powered by burning hydrogen. Everything depends on how you improve your heart and employ your rationality. Fear and greed are your greatest enemies.
NYMEX:NG1!
by LordWrymouth
8
Oct 19,22-NG down to 5.5-going all in BUYSo price action has continued to fall and I'm leveraged a bit now. I put in another Buy order at 5.5 wondering if tomorrow is the day when price action rebounds because of the storage report. Who knows - it's anyones guess. Price might fall down to 5, I dunno. But if it rebounds tomorrow, I'll be in good shape. Price has continued to fall because of warmer than expected weather across the U.S. throughout Oct and into the beginning of Nov. As soon as that first cold snap comes, I will be sitting pretty to take advantage. Stay safe all. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
11
WTI oil - Deteriorating demand to weight on the higher oil priceSince our short-term price target of 80 USD was taken out a few weeks ago, we abstained from setting short and medium-term price targets because of very high volatility in the oil market. Despite that, we stuck to the long-term price target of 70 USD, to which we remain committed. Our views are based mainly on fundamental factors concerning the deteriorating global demand for oil, with the OPEC slashing demand for 2023 and China maintaining its zero covid policy for longer. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- strive to perform a bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bearish. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows hint at bullish breakouts (above SMAs) and subsequent invalidation. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and MACD are bearish. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture shows the weekly chart of USOIL and two moving averages. The yellow arrow points to the impending bearish crossover between two SMAs; if successful, it will bolster the bearish case. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
22
Oct 17,22-NG Put in a Buy Order @ 6So price action has dropped like crazy for NG...I still have my Buy order at 7 so I added another Buy order at 6. I think the lowest price will go will be around 5.5. I will put another Buy Order in at 5.5 if it gets that low, otherwise I will ride the price action back up to infinity and beyond! ok....maybe just to 10 or so. Anyway, stay safe everyone - as you can see, price action is now OUTSIDE the Linerar Regression Indicator so price should be going up any week now. Not to mention the War and the Winter and Euro and Asian NG prices skyrocketing...anyway. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
2
NATGAS // last breakout tested, turn may comeHi Everyone!✋🏽 We've seen the correction of the last weekly impulse wave on the daily. Price has tested the last north breakout (marked blue, as Daily S/R zone), then if the daily closes above the trigger zone (green), we may see the trend turn into the primary direction. What do you think??? Trade safe! ⚪️⚫️ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks for reading my analysis!🤘🏽 Remember that trading is a risky business. SIZE your TRADES according to your risk aversion! Please remember to support the idea with a BOOST or COMMENT with your highly appreciated opinion! ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter. WE JUST REACT! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by TheMarketFlow
NatGas: Athletic 👟💪🎾NatGas has been indulging in athletic activities – quite in accordance with its temperament. Since the end of wave ii in pink, NatGas has been exercising on the stairwalker, has been playing squash in the green trend channel and has been doing some aerobic. Next, it should proceed with trampolining on the blue zone between $5.554 and $4.684 to finish wave iii and iv in pink and then drop onto the pink mattress between $5.156 and $4.455 to complete wave v in pink, which also includes concluding the overarching downwards movement in the course of wave 2 in green. There is a 28% chance, though, that NastGas could skip the blue as well as the pink zone and lift itself directly above the resistance at $8.123.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarketIntel
6
Oct 9,22-NG Long Still HopingIn looking at the weekly chart, I also added the Linnear Regression Indicator to give me an idea of where price action is...as you can see, it is at the outside so unless price continues to drop, we should expect a price jump. Maybe I was a little early in my prediction, although price action has touched higher than the 7 mark in the last 2 weeks - I am hoping it will actually CLOSE above 7 this week. Time will tell...Happy Thanksgiving to all you Canadians!! Stay safe all. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
10
XLE BO:bottom@66,Support@76, next stops are 90/98/107BULLISH CASE: XLE held a June low @66 which is a 0.618 retracement. It formed a triangle & has since bounced off the base very strongly with 2 gap-ups. Moving averages 50, 100 & 200 are forming a ribbon & are all pointing up. 76 is a strong support with volume profile. If this breakout from the triangle sees a follow-thru in the next few days, XLE may double the triangle & target the next 2 Fib levels at 98 & 107 with some consolidation at the recent ATH at 90. Crude oil & Natural gas bouncing strongly. 10-yr rate TNX & dollar index DXY turns up & are also bouncing higher. BEARISH CASE: If this will be a false breakout, then the 2 recent up-gaps will be filled with XLE going back inside the triangle. Not trading advice
AMEX:XLELong
by xtremerider8
NATURAL GAS on a head & shoulder 🦐NATURAL GAS after the bull run is losing momentum. The price on the daily chart is creating a head and shoulder and according to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below the neckline and satisfy the A ACADEMY rules we will set a nice short order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
OANDA:NATGASUSDShort
by InkyGrip
22
WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind BullsWhen crude was trading at $120 a few months ago, all you would hear on Twitter from people like Javier Blas from Bloomberg and other propaganda pundits is about how the fundamentals of oil are so bullish, because OPEC production is maxed out, the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, domestic demand because summer, the government donating the strategic reserves to Chinese Communist Party firms on the cheap , etc, etc. There was all that chatter about Europe putting a price cap on Russian oil, and that causing the price to surge overnight to $350 in some kind of dystopian nightmare. At the time, everyone wanted to get long. Everyone would only get long. I remember one day in July oil returned to $91 on like a 10% daily drop and one Twitter pundit thanked the market makers for their "delta squeezing put options" before expiry and that he was happy that he got to buy calls that cheap because it was never going to happen again. This is the way bull runs are. They tend to end when the narrative flips entirely to "who would ever short this?!" And that ending is easier for bulls when something gaps down and breaks the momentum than it is with the price pattern being employed by the WTI MMs where everything all the way up and all the way down is trading in an efficient pattern that seeks-and-destroys both ways on the shorter timeframe. In terms of specific price action, as I pointed out in my early August call that oil was on its way to far lower double digit numbers: WTI Crude Oil - Running and Gunning That the August price action with a quiet sweep of the July ~$86 lows, followed by a bounce, followed by a quadruple bottom, was simply too naive to think would be support. Now, we're at $81, and it once again sounds like a dip to buy. And while we're probably going to see a run back to $86~, this market is no longer in a dip to buy position. A lot of things make sense when you look at the monthly: All of this price action we just experienced in early 2021 was, ultimately, a clean up of the unfinished business from the 2008 bubble pop, which was never addressed during the 2010-2014 ranging. And really, after oil hit... -$38 during Coronavirus Disease 2019 hysteria, you really have to call that the bottom. If you can't call -$38 the bottom, what would a bottom ever be? Now, for those who guffaw at the prospect of oil going back to $50, this is totally fair enough. As always, it sounds impossible, until it unfolds. Humans are only able to believe in what they see. Having even a modicum of faith is a real stretch for almost everyone. But I would like to point out that there is a precedental fractal left behind in the run up to the 2008 bubble pop, which you can see on the left hand side of the monthly chart above. Oil more or less traded in a miniature of this exact same 2022 pattern. When it broke its pivots before finally rocketing to $140, it amounted to a total 35% $28 downturn, which was an enormous number in those trading ranges. Everything is highly inflated and much more volatile and interesting today. The weekly chart shows just how dangerous the situation is for bulls. The reality is, the only inefficiency during this current market structure is in this $81 range, which we are sitting in. It's not showing a lot of interest in bouncing, and it would have to get back into the $100s to really count as a reversal. So if $80 isn't the target to make a bottom at, what is? Well, looking at the daily we can see more clearly that there's something of a plan B in the $69 range that can count as maintaining market structure if a reversal occurs within it. And there's also a chance to maintain the trendline at $66. But in reality, there's a fat double bottom to blow away formed from the September and December 2021 lows. And based on the weekly, there are inefficiencies left behind that were never readdressed at the unfortunate numbers around $50, and specifically right under the psychological $50 level. In my opinion, before oil turns around and rips North to levels that will make living in this world nearly impossible for everyone who isn't a billionaire, the MMs will seek and destroy these levels. And they may stop being so polite about it. It may start to come faster and faster. At some point in the near term future, dumps may come with a quick and significant gap down, and this time, they won't fill. Pundits, analysts, and all sorts of charlatans will all be stunned and bewildered by how it could happen under the macro conditions. And then they will all say "oh, of course, look at these data points. It was only natural that $120 was an inflated number." The answer, they will say, is undoubtedly "something something mainland China 'Zero-COVID' economic demand," not understanding the real state of disaster being wrought in that country as Wuhan Pneumonia goes on a tear and the Chinese Communist Party is starting to be unable to cover it up for much longer. But $125~ was not a top for WTI crude, and neither was $140. A much more painful number like $180 or $200 is coming, and it's not going to take years to get there. I believe that natural gas, likewise, has a lot of downside left to go: Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? A lot of things are probably going to bounce for a bit longer and then start to very aggressively dump. You should be prepared for this. Stop listening to talking heads, propaganda, and charlatans, and be rational. None of them want to help you survive financially and none of them want you to be rich. Most of them don't even trade. Trading is hard. Everyone who has ever traded with live funds knows how hard it is to get in at the right time, in the right direction, and hold through all the chaos and pain until something bears fruit. Fronting and flexing on the Internet to a flock of 50 Cent Party bots and collecting a 6 figure salary from Bloomberg or a 6 figure donation from YouTube's profit sharing program, on the other hand, is just so, so easy. Talk is cheap, and yet, mastery is not. Rationality is, ultimately, linked to your level of morality and your values.
NYMEX:CL1!
by LordWrymouth
4