Natgas
$BOIL Nat Gas play scaling inBOIL is a very volatile ticker that follows NG Natural Gas Futures
Scaling into CSPs ( cash secured puts) OCT 45P trading at $4.90 here .
Used some of this premium to buy OCT $80 calls at 3.65
A bit of knife catching and mean reversion speculating here
If we get one more flush, will do final scale in .
I'm comfortable to roll or even be assigned shares as there are juicy premiums !
Higher risk trade idea, playing with profits !
Sep 27,22-NG-Buy time? I think soSo price action fell back a bit down to 6.7 and 6.8 so I put a Buy order in at 7. I'm anticipating this to be filled tomorrow. The storage report on Thurs might bring prices back down a bit depending on what the numbers are, but I'm hoping the numbers will spike the price up to 7.3 or so. Hoping to finish the week off at about 7.5
Your thoughts?
Heiko
NATURAL GAS - NatGas - shortok ok .. this not an easy trade!.. probably, in this moment work on Natural gas is near to gambling at casinò but based on technical point we can have a short direction
Let me explain the main point
1) COT report say that non commercial are short (with increase)
2) Europe has completed the "stock" for this winter
3) Europe has created a big plan to reduce the electricity consumption
4) USA has a short possibilities for increase the natural gas export at least for the next two mounths
5) The petroil cost are decrease and cuold be more convenient that GAS
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all this with technical wave analysis suggest a potential drop ...
Trade safe.. always
A risky NATGAS long play // SC - short correctionHi Everyone!✋🏽
I want to show you an idea that has a possibility to turn into winner trades, however, compared to the reward, the risk involved is quite high, since this goes through a CORRECTION.
Primary trend is short, but we have a weekly south breakout to be tested, if the price bounces back from the Daily 138.2 target has been recently reached. That weekly south breakout happens to be just topping a nice daily south breakout. Both zones are within the 38.2-61.8 FIBO retracement levels. In my analysis, such phases on the markets mean, that price can turn into direction of the primary trend, that is short. But we are not there yet!
The first direction at the moment is long only after the green trigger level is broken, but shouldn't let the profit run this time, because the market may make a round in no time!
ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter. WE JUST REACT!
Happy trading! ⚪️⚫️
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Thanks for reading my analysis!🤘🏽
Please remember to support the idea with a BOOST or COMMENT
with your highly appreciated opinion!
USOIL - An attempt to support the price failsOn 17th August 2022, we warned that the oil market might be positioning itself for a downtrend correction. Accordingly, we said we would pay close attention to the sloping resistance and a potential breakout above it.
Then, a few days later, the breakout occurred, and the price of USOIL spiked to 97.65 USD. Meanwhile, we abandoned our bearish price targets due to the OPEC considering production cuts. However, we also stated that the retracement (below the sloping resistance) could be utilized as short position re-entry.
Finally, after the OPEC announcement, we said the production cut would have a minimal impact on the market. So today, we would like to update price targets for USOIL. Our new short-term price target is 80 USD, and our long-term price target is 70 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the daily chart of USOIL. It also depicts the bullish breakout above the sloping support/resistance and subsequent bearish retracement.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows simple support and resistance levels for USOIL. The yellow arrow indicates the most recent bearish breakout.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Sep 23,22-NG still sliding...to what? 6?So recession fears are the talk of this week and the markets are tanking.
As you all know, people have a short memory - could be next week or the week after, NG will rise again.
Be ready for the turnaround and ride it up. That's what I'm going to be looking for.
How low will it go? Probably 6.5 for sure, maybe even 6. Next week is a new week so trade smart - volatile times we are in that's for sure. Between War, Cold coming, and world resources changing ESPECIALLY regarding NG (as Russia has cut Europe off), NG is going to be a hard one to trade.
Stay safe and enjoy your weekend!
Heiko
Sep 21,22-NG-Totally Neutral right nowSo as you can see from this weekly chart...NG has certainly been in a downdraft - congrats to everyone who sold NG when it was above 9.
The question now is, where is price going to go? I will wait for an order until I can see a direction. Still 2 days to go this week and the weekly storage report tomorrow so we shall see if that moves price at all.
Otherwise, I guess I will wait until next week to put an order in.
Stay safe.
Heiko
Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): Technical Outlook 💨
Natural Gas formed a huge head and shoulders pattern on a daily time frame.
7.33 - 7.88 is its wide horizontal neckline.
If the price breaks and closes below the neckline, it will be a very strong bearish signal.
I believe that then the market can easily drop to 6.17 level.
Remember, that for now, a neckline represents a strong demand area.
Consider shorting only after its breakout.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Soybeans ZS - Lagging the Pack, but Ready to GoThis is a call I wanted to make yesterday, but didn't have time. With the time I had, there was a choice between this and a Nasdaq NS call and made the Nasdaq call:
Nasdaq NQ - 8 Days & 1,700 Points
But in fairness, I did pick up November options during yesterday's session, so at least I can say that much for myself, since this has some vibes of hindsight based on today's action.
Regardless, Soybeans gives strong cause to believe bullish action is imminent, based on the monthly candles:
What this tells us that our June high formed a double top with the '12 all-time high. But most critically, it formed a lower high double top, which means that MMs are likely to seek this level to crush bear skulls, and it's just a question of when.
The post-resistance top was really a long gap fill and we've also had three months of consolidation. As everyone who's traded with real money knows, picking the direction and the price is not the hardest, but instead, the timing is the very hardest, and most critical, thing.
And in terms of timing, the weekly gives us good cause to believe we're ready to go. We see that late July featured a gap up, which has been filled in and heavily consolidated over the course of five weeks:
And thusly, there is significantly reduced reason to believe that Soybeans are set to seek new lows instead of new highs.
And indeed, on the daily, what has manifested is a string of higher lows, culminating in this morning's gundown of the 1,400 level
A gundown that looks exceptionally turtle soup on the 1H, albeit retrospectively since it already ripped. But note that the rip occurred at 9:00 just before NYSE opens, significant because there are ETFs like SOYB that get caught gap up.
More importantly, maybe consider not trying to short the pop. Instead, going long on a pullback could be quite good.
And so, in magnifying the timeframe down to the 4H, I discovered that targeting boxes that appeared correct on the wider time frame were a little too shallow on the lower time frames. Thusly, I have generated a "revised" targeting box.
However, like I said, time is the harder consideration. I feel ZS will get there, but who knows when? In the meantime, a rundown of the 1,500 level, which corresponds with those August-July relative equal highs around ~1,485 is very realistic.
Everyone knows the global food supply is in trouble because of all the drought . Whether it's corn, wheat, soy, or whatever. And while you can certainly expect a new all time high to be made, it's really a question of when.
Months like December, January, and February when everything is both trapped in winter, a new calendar year, and people are struggling to pay incredibly high natural gas/electricity bills across the world resulting from problems governments have created since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine this year, may be the more likely time target for 2,000 point Soybeans.
NATGAS huge Head and ShouldersPrice Broke the neckline and currently testing support at 7.5 area.
If the price managed broke the support and established below we may see further bearish price action.
Sep 18,22-NG-Will it close below level?So I find a decent Support level around 7.5 - question is....will price close below 7.5 on Monday or not? If so, I think price could drop to 7. If not, price could consolidate for a while, then go up or down depending on a million things.
I'm not looking for a sell order. I'm waiting for price to bottom out - then I will catch the rise, probably back to an ATH this winter. Winter scares me - between the cold and the war, I have no bloody idea when and how high NG will soar, but it scares the hell out of me. One thing I DO know is...I wanna ride that price action all the way to huge profits.
I'll keep you updated as the week progresses.
Heiko
Sep 16,22 NG-How low will it go? 7?Hopefully you all made some decent profits this past week. There looks like there is some support around 7.8ish. I'm thinking though it might get down to 7 as recession rears kick in and the world expects a slowdown.
Remember, this is that lull before winter kicks in and NG usuall goes up in winter due to demand. This year?!?!? Who knows how cold it get, or how early the cold weather will hit. Sometimes in October, sometimes in December.
Strap in and hold tight - gonna be a crazy next 6 months.
Heiko
Nat gas back to the 5'sFirst wave looks finished and now the C part of the ABC looks like it has started. Expect a swift move down to 5.50 (lower weekly BB area), but I think it would be a long term buy from there. Keep in mind however, there is steep monthly bear divergence now on this chart and the possibility that this is a long term top must be kept in mind. Either way, 5.50 should act as support in both cases.
LNG almost hitting my TP 182 posted last April 17@ 3.618 FiboI made a forecast last April 17,2022 that LNG will be hitting 182. At that time LNG already had A BIG RALLY & seemed to be topping out but actually it was making a FLAG CONSOLIDATION before another run. (I was bashed for that even thought it was only my opinion & not a trading advice)
Look how my Fibo levels coincide exactly with ALL important levels in chart.
In the coming weeks or months, LNG may have to supply Europe with cargoes of LNG at a premium price
since Russia had cut off Europe”s LNG supply & winter is coming.
Not trading advice