NatGas: LowIt hit the floor (it hit the floor)
Next thing you know
NatGas got low, low, low, low, low, low, low, low
Okay, these aren’t exactly the lyrics of Flo Rida’s “Low”, but they are fitting, nonetheless, for we expect NatGas to move further downwards below the support at $7.524. Just before the next support at $6.466, though, NatGas should turn around and head upwards, crossing $7.524 and even the resistance at $9.60. However, there is a 38% chance that NatGas doesn’t listen to Flo Rida’s song. Instead, it could climb directly above the resistance at $9.60 and subsequently rise into the blue zone between $11.298 and $12.116.
Natgas
May 23, 22 NG Almost short time?Looks like my prediction was correct from Friday. I was thinking we may have a spike on Mon and here it is. How long will it last? not sure...
But, I'm looking at a top out of 8.8 or 8.7
So I am looking at putting in a Sell Order around there tomorrow or Wed.
I'll keep you updated.
Heiko
NATURAL GAS | IMPORTANT LEVELNATGAS / XNGUSD is trading at very important resistance. The price is trading on this price for couple of days with long wick rejection candles.
Although the phobia among the European countries is still intact but price action suggest different stories.
Wait for breakout or clear rejection before opening any position.
Trade your levels accordingly.
May 19, 22-NG Pullback? Buy Opp at 7.7?NG has been making higher highs and higher lows this past week or so....I'm watching for another pullback today down to 7.7 - I will see if it blows past this point but if it finds some support here then tomorrow or later tonight could be a Buy Order around that 7.7 mark.
NG is still looking like it's on a tear so we will see what the report says today and go from there.
Heiko
Elliott Wave Analysis: Natural Gas Confirms Temporary TopHello traders and investors, today we will talk about Natural Gas in which we can see sharp and impulsive decline from the highs, which in Elliott wave theory suggests and confirms temporary top in place.
From Elliott Wave perspective we can clearly see a completed five-wave bullish cycle within 5th wave at projected 9.0 level. In Elliott waves, after every five waves, we can expect a three-wave A-B-C reversal, so with current five-wave drop from the highs, seems like Natgas is now slowing down within a higher degree (A)-(B)-(C) correction.
Well, wave (A) seems to be completed now, so we may now see a three-wave A-B-C corrective rally in wave (B) that can retest 7-8 resistance area and form a nice Head&Shoulders pattern before we will see another sell-off for wave (C).
Happy trading!
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Mar 12, 22 NG Buy or Sell?So NG has been in a bit of a sideways channel lately....what is it waiting for? Some kinda news?
I have no idea if it will go up or down or will it end this week sideways?
Frustrating as hell but I'm thinking it might drop some next week. Who knows though right?
Thoughts??
Heiko
May 2, 22 NG going to drop or no?Question is....will NG just keep going up because of the war etc or will sense come back into reality and price will start to come down later this week?
I'm looking at it rising tomorrow and maybe Wed before it will start falling. Will it hit 7.8 again over the next couple of days? If so, good time to enter a Sell Trade?
I have no idea. Any input?
Heiko
💡NGAS (NAT.GAS) - Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 5.194, resumption of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 8.176 breaks.
If the support at 5.194 is broken, the short-term forecast -resumption of uptrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI support #1 at 43 is not broken, the probability of price decrease would be too low.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 6.485 on 04/25/2022, so more gains to resistance(s) 7.458 and maximum to Major Resistance (8.176) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index ( RSI ) is 61.
Supports and Resistances:
8.827
8.176
7.458
6.520
5.835
5.194
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💡NGAS (NAT.GAS) - Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 5.194, resumption of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 8.176 breaks.
If the support at 5.194 is broken, the short-term forecast -resumption of uptrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI support #1 at 43 is not broken, the probability of price decrease would be too low.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 6.485 on 04/25/2022, so more gains to resistance(s) 7.458 and maximum to Major Resistance (8.176) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 61.
Supports and Resistances:
8.827
8.176
7.458
6.520
5.835
5.194
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USOIL - Russian oil ban = higher oil pricesMore than a week ago, we warned about potential EU's ban on Russian oil and the risk it poses for the higher price of oil. We suggested that this step would lead to higher prices of oil in the short-term. Just two days ago, Germany was reported to back a gradual ban on Russian oil. Because of that we abandon our short-term and medium-term price targets. Although, our long-term price target remains in place.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI points to the upside which is bullish; however, over the past few days, it shows choppy pattern. MACD oscillates near the midpoint; if it manages to break above it, then we expect it to bolster a bullish case for USOIL. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish but due to perform bullish crossover. ADX signals presence of no significant trend. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish for USOIL.
Illustration 1.01
The illustration above shows the rectangle pattern - in which most of the choppy price action has been going on lately.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is neutral. MACD is highly elevated and flattening at the same moment, which makes it neutral. Stochastic reversed to the upside. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market. However, ADX's signals that these conditions deteriorated over the past four weeks. Overall, the weekly time frame is mixed.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NatGas: GeyserLike a geyser, NatGas is spouting upwards from the white zone between $6.255 and $6.684. We expect it to have enough drive to reach the resistance at $8.065 soon. There, it should gain some more momentum to make it into the orange zone between $8.559 and $9.241, where wave (5) in white as well as wave iii in orange should end. However, there is a 42% chance that NatGas could rebound off the line at $8.065 and subsequently drop below $6.466. In that case, it should fall into the green zone between $5.687 and $4.939 first before rising back above $6.466 and further toward $8.065.
Apr 26, 22 NG-Time to ride it up?I put in a Buy Order at 6.9 as I just read that Russia is going to turn OFF the gas deliveries to Poland starting Wed Morning.
I am expecting NG to go up with NG in Europe as Poland will have to get it's supplies from other countries - like the U.S. maybe?
We shall see but maybe I can make some money back on what I lost last month :-)
Stay safe!!
Heiko
USOIL - Choppy but still bearishYesterday, we showed a bearish breakout in the RSI of USOIL. Although, later, during the trading session, this breakout became invalidated, and RSI moved back above the horizontal support. Despite that, we remain bearish on the USOIL, and our price targets stay in place.
Illustration 1.01
The idea above shows yesterday's intraday breakout below the support in the RSI on the daily time frame chart.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX exhibits growth which signals that the bearish momentum is gaining strength. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the retracement in the RSI on the daily chart.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD performed a bearish crossover recently; however, it remains in the upper area of the bullish zone. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market, with ADX suggesting their further deterioration. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
ABC Still correcting?Missed most of the wave up, but it hasn't broken the high so it could correct and then move a lot higher. Weekly log scale pitchfork holds the price incredibly well.
NATURAL GAS Multi-year Cycles.Natural Gas (NG1!) has been one of the most profitable trading assets of the year offering great returns. On a long-term scale though (1W time-frame on this chart) it has starting to form a peak pattern, which we have seen previously in the past 20 years.
I've plotted the Sine Waves on the chart to more efficiently illustrate NG's long-term cycles. Currently it is within a Bull Cycle having formed a Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200) last June. However after every 1W Golden Cross since 2000, the market made a Top shortly after. This was disrupted this year due to the Ukraine-Russia war and as a result the price negated the peak of October 2021 and broke outside the Sine Wave.
This is not the first time we see that. On the upside this took place in December 2003 - January 2004 and on the downside in June 2015. If 2004 - 2005 is repeated, we should see the price pull-back immediately towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and within this year towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), and then rebound on Higher Highs/ Higher Lows towards the next Sine Wave to form a Top. On the other hand, this is negated if we get 2 straight weekly (1W) candle closings below the 1W MA200 or if the December 2021 low of 3.535 breaks first.
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USOIL - A gloomy outlook for WTI oilA few weeks ago, we noted that we believe USOIL peaked and is headed lower. Indeed, we set a long-term price target of 90 USD. Now, we would like to change this price target to medium-term and set a new long-term price target of 80 USD. Additionally, we would also like to set a short-term price target of 95 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Yellow arrows indicate the recent bullish breakout (above the trendline) and subsequent loss of momentum.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-, which recently performed the bearish crossover. In addition to that, ADX halted its decline, suggesting the resumption of the bearish trend. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish for WTI oil.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are developing bearish structures. MACD performed the bearish crossover. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market. However, ADX signals that the bullish trend is losing momentum. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Startring to short natural gasNatural gas was off my radar for obvious reasons. I am starting to think it is getting ridiculously over priced and perhaps some noob hedgefunds have been already short squeezed or in the process of being squeezed.
My plan is to short now (3% at my portfolio) and if we go the the next resistance, around 8.5$ I will commit another 3%.
Target take profit around 5$.
I mean the war can go on for a long time. But then we have the summer and I have some hopes by the May 9th, where the Russians have their parade they will say we have won the war and end it :)
NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE
NatGas UpHey.
NatGas, I'm betting that it goes up again after a little retracement. As far as I'm aware, there is still bullish sentiment on US Natural Gas, given the macroeconomic situation with Russia and everything.
God bless, and safe trading!
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Nat Gas Should Hold Support @ $6.5The natural gas market has been supply constrained ever since the Russian ukraine war started. The war is significant to the natural gas market because Russia is the worlds 2nd largest producer of natural gas. Russia also holds 20% of the worlds natural gas reserves. NAT GAS is trading above a crucial 10 year resistance level around $6.5, we broke this level around April 13th. Since breaking that level we saw NAT GAS trade up to $6.5, now we are seeing NAT GAS come back down to this level, I believe we see this $6.5 level hold and NAT GAS move higher