Natgas
USGAS TAKE PROFIT HIT 📉📉📉📉 I CLOSED ALL TRADES IN PROFIT ON USGAS, we are still bullish on this asset from a fundamental/tehnical analysis context. My last target for this asset is 6.0,i think we will go there but not before price makes a retracement back into 5.0 institutional figure H4 Imbalance + bullish orderblock area.
What do you think ? Do you agree on my analysis ?
Mar 25, 22 NG waiting for sell oppNG is STILL going up, crazy. No time to sell yet. I will put in a Sell Order next week assuming there comes a top. You never know, it might just keep going up to 6 - lol
Anyway, Happy Weekend all and stay safe.
My heart goes out to all the families suffering during this war.
Heiko
NatGas: Like a Balloon🎈Like a balloon, NatGas is floating further and further upwards from the support at $3.536. Although every now and then, there may be some gusts of wind temporarily disrupting the upwards surge, we expect that NatGas’s general tendency is to rise higher. However, as it is usually the case with balloons, they can lose air or burst. Accordingly, there is still a 45% chance that NatGas could fall below $3.536 and make a detour through the magenta zone between $3.360 and $1.994 before flying upwards again.
Mar 18, 22 Natural Gas Sell OrderNG has come down some overnight so I put in a sell order at 4.9.
I'm going to watch it closely and I'm not expecting it to take a nosedive anytime soon. As long as the War is in play, I can't see NG getting under 4.5.
I'll see what kind of profit I can get - maybe only 200-300 points, but still better than nothing :-)
Stay safe.
Heiko
NG Sideways ZoneAfter a significant rise as a result of war, price has approached to the resistance level at 5.000 which has pushed the price for several times in the past.
Currently, price is bouncing between the red resistance level at 5.000 and the yellow support zone around 4.800 which is a sideways area.
We should wait for the breakout on the resistance or support level first, then in the case of a candle closure above or below the broken level, we can expect a move towards the target.
Is this possible?Perhaps not just possible, but likely.
EU must start buying LNG gas from American market as it has vouched to reduce imports of Russian gas by 70% by the end of the year.
Check the chart, NATGAS has broken out decade old channel, and retested it. This is as bullish as it gets.
NATURAL GAS LONGS 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on NATURAL GAS from a medium-long term perspective as we are in a HTF BULLISH MARKET STRUCUTRE, price kept the 4.5 psychological barrier without breaking it to the downside, we have bearish imbalances somwhere around 5.0 that should magnetize price back there, Market Seasonality is very bullish on chart as we have a BULLISH CYLCE + the fundamental context makes me thing we will go higher. I think in the next 2-3monts we will have a huge problem with supply/demand because Russia advised European Union of higher prices on GAS.
What do you think ? Comment below...
Mar 16, 22 Natural Gas Take ProfitPut that Buy Order in at the beginning of the week at 4.5 wanting price to head up to 5. Not sure what's going to happen. News is so mixed with the war going on - so I decided to take my profit at 4.650 so not a huge gain, but at least something good.
With the Fed popping interest rates up this afternoon, I have no idea where NG is going to go - didn't want to take a chance. I will see what happens this afternoon and maybe get back into a trade then.
Stay safe.
Heiko
NATGAS - Has it stopped? Let's see how NATGAS is behaving.
This is a 1D chart. (Long Term)
Any news on how the US will get a new connection as a replacement of Russia can affect the prices and cause significant changes.
However, while nothing special is going on and the market is on its sideway moves, these three levels are the key areas for now.
Fib Retracement levels show two support areas and two resistance areas on the way up. Right now, the price is sitting on local support.
Support levels: $3.85 - $4.52
Resistance Area: $5.17
Bollinger Bands can work as support and resistance too. Here is an example:
The resistance level pushes down on value, and two support levels hold the price high and show strength. The higher band can work as resistance.
The Middle Bollinger Band can push down the value, and the Lower band pushes the price up.
If the price crosses the local resistance and stays above it for confirmation, we can open our long positions, aim for the next resistance, and use it as a TP point.
The RSI shows that NATGAS is above the 50 levels, the center.
If you want to know how the RSI indicator works, take a look at this Educational Idea. It'll help you have better readings:
Current Market Price: $4.66
Let me know your ideas.
Good luck.
Mar 13, 22 NG Which way will this week?So last week NG went from around 5.1 down to 4.5 and closed out the week at around 4.7. This makes it hard to say if price will drop back to 4.5 or if it will rise up to over 5 with what's going on in the world.
I think I will play this week like this - if price action comes down to 4.5 by Wed, put in a Buy Order there expecting price to go up into next week. Set my TP at 5.1, maybe 5.4 depending on strength of price action.
If price goes up right away to 5ish, then I have no idea what I will do - Will it keep going up to 5.5? Or will it just come back down as the week progresses to 4.5?
Let me know your thoughts. Stay safe.
Heiko
SWN LongSouthwestern Energy is a natural gas exploration and production company organized in Delaware and headquartered in Spring, Texas. The company is ranked 776th on the Fortune 500. Fundamentals looking good too.
NatGas: Ants in Its Pants 🐜🐜🐜NatGas seems to have ants in its pants, seeing that it has been fidgeting above the orange zone between $3.982 and $4.464 during the last weeks. As it has botched its first attempt to move upwards after finishing wave 2 in green, we expect NatGas to try for a second time. It should then rise into the green zone between $5.856 and $6.214 to complete wave 3 in green. After a moderate correction in wave 4 in green, NatGas should resume the ascent and climb above the resistance at $6.466. If its antics have sapped NatGas’s energy too much, though, there is a 40% chance that it could drop below $3.536.
Mar 8, 22 NG Go LONG (Buy Order)After Bidens announcement I put in a Stop Buy Order at 4.6 to see if price action would come up once 9:30am hit - Sure enough it took less than 15 minutes.
This of course is all due to Biden, who later today is said to ban Russian imports and/or the purchase of Oil and NG from Russia. This could put a supply issue into the world which will push the price of both up.
I am hoping to ride this price action back up to the 5 mark for some nice profits.
I will keep you updated.
Heiko
Natural Gas (NYMEX) - Weekly UpdateNatural Gas - Weekly
Bottom Line : "Big-picture" Bullish.
Repeating : The higher probability view is to label the Primary wave ((C)) decline as an ending diagonal to complete Cycle y . Ending diagonals are terminal structures. They are typically followed by swift reversals that retrace the entire length of the pattern. There’s not enough historical price data to confidently assess the wave degrees above Cycle, but a multi-year rally from the Cycle wave y low is likely to retrace the bulk of the decline from the 15.78 all-time high set in 2005 .
War, Inflation, Oil & Natural GasSince the early 2000s commodities have had a major boom, a major bust and another boom which began in April 2020. The current boom isn't caused by the world going into the right direction and economies are booming, but rather we have major issues in the production of commodities. Globalization led to a massive economic boom post WW2, a trend that slowly started reversing since 2008, accelerated a bit in 2020 due to Covid and now has massively accelerated due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This boom to a large extend relied on the financialization of the economy and the outsourcing of production on emerging markets, most of which don't align with western values and tend towards authoritarianism. This essentially lead to huge underinvestment in the production of commodities in the 'west' and heavy dependence on the 'east'. As the world is de-globalizing inflation has become a problem for everyone, but mostly for the developed world which now seems to be at odds with the developing world.
Unfortunately, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the continuation, or I should say the real 'breakout' into a new world order. A reset was going to come, tensions were going to rise and things would eventually get at this stage. It's in the nature of human beings to repeat the same mistakes over and over again, and as technology is progressing these mistakes tend to be more destructive and costly. Personally, I see no way how this situation gets resolved peaceful and doesn't result in the world being heavily divided in two camps, one US centric and one China centric. The next 10 years are probably going to be very turbulent, with all sorts of problems arising and the world going through some very dark times, yet I also think that after that period we going to come out of it stronger and potentially have another massive boom. It's currently all a matter of surviving over the next 10 years monetarily, physically and mentally... because we are about to go through a really rough period where inflation gets totally out of control, especially in nations that don't produce enough of their own food and energy.
There are multiple reasons as to why inflation is going to ravage the world economy, but the key ones will be higher energy prices, broken supply chains (dysfunctional trade), freeze or reduction in production of certain goods in countries like Ukraine or Russia. What is going to exacerbate the problem but at this point is a necessary evil, is the insane amount of money printing in order to cover all sorts of deficits and provide people with support. In my opinion and I've talked about extensively before, is that raising interest rates in this environment will do nothing to stop inflation. What the public and private sector really needs to do is relax regulations and provide all sorts of help to producers, so that each country can get as much autonomy as it can get. Doing whatever it takes in order to produce as much energy and food, as it really is a matter of national security.
A few weeks ago, it looked like inflation was going to come down. There wasn't much liquidity in the markets and all sorts of issues started showing up. Like I had mentioned in my previous ideas, inflation was due to several issues that had nothing to do with QE and ZIR, but due to issues on the supply side. It started looking like the Fed wouldn't need to or wouldn't even be able to raise rates more than 1.5-2%. However, then the conflict broke out and everything changed completely. Now the inflation caused by non-monetary issues has gotten completely out of hand, with no end in sight. Even though the issue is mainly on the supply side, it is a very tough one to fix and it is one that needs a lot of time to fix... while in the meantime intervention by money printing, wars and so on, will most likely make things a lot worse. So instead of the markets finding some sort of balance as low supply slowly crashes demand until production ramps up, we could see things get completely out of hand as the monetary systems breaks down along with production and distribution of goods, energy etc.
In this analysis I won't get into any commodities other than Oil and Natural let's get into the charts and take everything step by step. Starting with oil, it is very clear that the market is extremely overbought, but at the same time it looks like it has also had a major breakout. Based on all metrics it is the most overbought it has ever been, yet at the same time its uptrend is very clean and strong. Since its December low the price of oil has doubled, and since the low on Feb 25th after the war broke out, it went up 40%. Currently it is just 20% away from making a new ATH, so I wouldn't be surprised if it goes 2x above its previous ATH in the next few months. Essentially we are seeing a reverse capitulation of what happened in April 2020 when oil went to -40$/barrel on the front contract. That ended the oil bear market as it forced a lot of producers to shut their oil wells and flushed out speculators. So high could oil go? Is there a limit? Although there is no limit to the upside due to the potential devaluation of fiat currencies, the truth is that higher prices are the cure for higher prices. Higher prices incentivize producers to start producing a lot more, and will probably make all the environmental concerns go out of the window, hence allowing all sorts of 'bad' for the environment energy sources to be used by everyone. What is actually even more likely is that such high oil prices will make the global economy collapse, which will in turn lead into a collapse in demand for oil. But again... How high can its price get? Based on the previous two largest Oil rallies, as well as based on technical analysis & fractals, the absolute top could be at 440-550$/barrel if things get extremely bad (ceiling), while 250-300$ is more likely to be either the top or a local top for quite some time.
So far we have spoken about the upside, but there is also significant potential for downside here before the bull trend continues. I don't think it is very likely, yet it is possible. Volatility on energy could get wild based on how fast the output is increased, while demand drops. The current trend can't and won't last forever, as we can't leave so many gaps behind without one day retesting them. Definitely wouldn't rule out a 2008 style crash on oil at any moment, however for now 75$ seems to be the floor, the same way 60$ was the floor in Q3-Q4 2021. Getting back to 40$ is also possible, but this one would definitely requite a 2008 style crash. Therefore on the one hand the potential upside is about 85-335%, while the downside is 35-65%.
Now it's time to talk about Natural Gas, as this is another really major component of the inflation equation, especially in Europe. Russia is the largest supplier of Natural Gas to Europe, which has been paying more and more for NatGas to Russia, and the situation is getting worse by the day. Someone could say Russia is holding Europe as a hostage, because Europe really really needs that gas as many people use it for heating, cooking and energy production. As its price was low for so long, people believed it would be cheap forever and started using it more and more. Unfortunately now it isn't easy to go back to using other sources of energy and Europe is really far way from only using clean/green forms of energy. Unless it moves quickly back to nuclear energy (re-activating reactors), coal and even getting natural gas from the US or somewhere else if possible, Europe is going to having blackouts for a long time. Not only will there be blackouts, but it will be pretty much impossible for anything to function properly.
The situation in Europe is totally different from that of the US, whose NatGas prices are about 15 times lower than the ones in Europe. That's because the US is producing its own and doesn't rely on other countries for it. It is also producing substantial amounts of oil, while many countries around it (i.e. Canada) also produce a lot of oil. The high dependence on Russia is putting a lot of pressure on Europe, which might not be able to grow at all for many years to come. What is interesting is that this situation is making Europe come together under a common threat, but it also somewhat benefits the US as it gets closer to Europe. Although I don't know how long would it take for this to work and if it is actually possible, but if the US starts exporting LNG to Europe, this could push the price of NatGas in the US up, and that in Europe down. This could eventually become a great trade (long NatGas in the US and short in Europe), but it might take quite some time. Like with Oil, TTF could go up another 2-5x before it rolls over, while NG barely looks like it could reach its previous ATHs. The higher oil goes and the higher the costs in Europe, the more likely it is that NG will go higher. It has formed a decent base and it looks bullish, just nowhere near as strong as the other two.
NATGAS MNT: 250%+ gains BEST level to BUY/HOLD (SL/TP)(NEW)Why get subbed to to me on Tradingview?
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NATGAS MNT: 250%+ gains BEST level to BUY/HOLD (SL/TP)(NEW)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: NATGAS monthly price chart review
::: chart looks strong / favors BULLS
::: natural gas STRONG BULL MARKET
::: 200% upside from current level
::: massive breakout in progress
::: expanding triangle bottom formation
::: we just got a clean breakout of the pattern
::: best strategy: MARKET BUY/HOLD IT
::: best reload BULLS:MARKET BUY NOW
::: TP bulls is 250% gains final TP 17.50 USD
::: we are currently entering commodities super cycle
::: prices are set to increase 100-300% over next 24 months
::: speculative setup always do your own due dill
::: fresh liquidity will be targeted by BULLS
::: BUY/HOLD setup do not expect miracle/fast gains
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: N/A
::: N/A
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment mid-term: BULLS/SUPERCYCLE
::: Sentiment outlook short-term: BEARS/PULLBACK
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NATURAL GAS INTO 5.50 - 6.00 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on NATURAL GAS as we have fundamental reasons behind a strong bullish move the war between Ukraine-Russia + sanctions that will affect the supply/demand of this asset, another fundamental reason why price will go higher way above 5.0 is because we have a BULLISH MARKET SEASONALITY till July.
From a technical perspective institutional figures 4.0 - 4.50 keeps the price bullish, we have a clear bullish market strucutre just be patient and ADD LONGS.
What do you think ?
Gas Natural dowwwwnCycle up has already finished.
Down for the rest of the year.
Target around 2,3 $
NGAS: Huge monthly uptrend startingI think Nat Gas prices are going to soar here, for the coming 9 months. We have a daily entry here, that can evolve into a massive monthly trend.
Try not to miss out on this play!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
NG Both SidesAs you see in the chart, price is moving in the ascending parallel channel and currently, it has been pushed to the upside after retesting the channel’s lower band.
If price breaks the red resistance level at 4.515 and closes a bullish candle above this level, we can expect a rise on NG to the channel upper band.
On the other hand, since we should always consider the another side either, if price breaks the yellow support zone around 4.300 and closes below this level, the bullish scenario is canceled and price may drop to 4.00
cup and handle pattern - Natural gas - Day tfspotted a cup and handle pattern on the daily chart, which explains why bullish support trendline on weekly tf still hold, and it can potentially back to the top (October high). The fundamental point of view also supports the technical analysis with Russia, US and Ukraine going on. I think this makes perfect sense - and from there we might never see 3.5 again this year :)
NATURAL GAS LONGS 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on this asset as the price of natural gas should rise from a seasonality point of view, we have a bullish market strucutre on H4/D1 timeframe as price keeps making higher highs and lower highs during the move, i will switch my bullish bias only if price will close bearish below the 4.0 area which is a important institutional level.
What do you think ? Comment below..
