NATURAL GAS - Correction Inbound?Winter is going away, maybe time for natgas to correct a bit (or hopefully a lot).
Ukraine situation ended up reminding us of what happened in Crimea so hopefully things can become quiet again.
In any case, this is our chart, we are short atm.
Do your own research and let us know your thoughts.
NEWS:
Environmental rules deal n ew blow to US natural gas pipelines
Climate activists cheer tough permit requirements for fossil fuel infrastructure
European Gas Swings as Russia Discusses Separatist Recognition:
Russia says ‘no concrete plans’ on talks; U.S. agrees to meet Putin holds security council to discuss east Ukraine’s Donbas
European natural gas prices fluctuated, whipsawed by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to decide on recognition of separatist regions of eastern Ukraine on Monday.
Russia’s parliament has appealed to Putin to formally recognize the Russian-backed separatist quasi-states in the Donbas region in Ukraine, a move western officials have said would torpedo the peace process there. Putin said he would make a decision on whether to recognize those areas on Monday.
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR
Natgas
UNG - Direction depending on PutinSorry, I started a new job and haven't been actively trading.
UNG - Nat gas has been very volatile lately and partially connected to Russia war news / European supply. Bearish view - Head and shoulders on daily.
Bullish view - Break over $16.20. *Russia controls a Nat Gas supply to 15 Euro countries.
Have a great long weekend!
4hr tf next week idea on Natgas if the price breaks to the upside and $4.6 break, I am looking toward $5.3 for profit-taking, and the same as a downside, if $4.3 can not hold, $4.1 and $3.93 will be downside targets respectively.
Natural gas back to the top againI mean, based on my analysis, the weekly support bullish line still holds the price and that must be a reason for it. To go back where it was in October, it doesn't difficult at all, if weekly macd turn positive - it could just happen within a week or before the beginning of March ( do not underestimate the power of natgas bull ;)). However, there are always possibilities in market - stop loss and money management is the key. Good luck and we will see if I am right :)
Natgas Weekly TFMy bet would be up, I am eyeing the October high ($5.7 -$6.4), as the weekly trend line holds and possibly test the high again. my analysis is based on technical analysis only no fundamental (as the market make no sense)
NatGas: Itsy Bitsy Spider 🕷The itsy bitsy spider climbed up the waterspout.
Down came the rain
And washed the spider out.
Out came the sun
And dried up all the rain
And the itsy bitsy spider climbed up the spout again.
Everybody knows this nursery rhyme, but for us, the lyrics go like this:
Itsy bitsy NatGas climbed up to the green span
Down came the rain
And with it NatGas ran.
Out came the sun
And dried up all the rain
And itsy bitsy NatGas started to climb again.
Or in other words: NatGas has risen up to the bottom of the green zone between $5.579 and $5.811 to finish wave 5 in green and wave i in orange. From there, it fell down dramatically until the bottom of the orange zone between $4.464 and $3.982, where it completed wave ii in orange. However, NatGas has already started to climb up again and has made it above the orange zone so far. We expect it to continue its ascent until the resistance line at $6.466 and to soar higher still. To implement our primary scenario though, NatGas must not fall below $3.536, otherwise it would drop further. We have estimated a 40% chance that this could happen.
Long NATGAS short term optionNatural has been on a decline ever since their recent high of 5.3.
Price is heavily oversold here.
We can see that the trend has recently left the falling flag and most recently breaking out of the descending triangle, recording a positive RSI divergence there too.
Currently on a important resistance level and my first target is the resistance up in a area around 4.5.
NATURAL GAS AnalysisNATURAL GAS is trading in a bullish trend and now it's retesting its channel support line I expect either bounce at those levels
or liquidity will be taken and we will see a retest of the midterm point of control at 3.438
Bounce on .5 Fibonacci ExtensionThe SPX & VXX both bounced from the .5 Fibonacci extension and retractement on daily time frames. Monday will be interesting with the Ukraine situations + Emergency FED Meeting results. I can see it going both ways unfortunately but the trend says we find a lower low. My gut tells me a no deal no info meeting through the weekend on Ukraine, and more accommodations from the fed because of Ukraine. These conditions could send the vix higher in the short term, we could finally see the sell off breadth we’ve been waiting for to call the bottom. Engulfments everywhere on the weekly’s charts look terrible. And the setup looks bullish to me on the VXX.
Nat Gas - long ideaImpulsive move up is definitely fading away. Some pips down still possible, but IMO this is the nice area to watch for longs.
There both bearish and bullish options for the larger structure, but at least we can trade the correction to the last impulse.
The bullish option is under question, but viable - if we assume a flat structure as shown on the chart - with its waves C testing the prior trend line
Let us see.
NatGas: Drama Queen 👑 NatGas is a legit little drama queen these days. Since last week, it has completed wave 2 in green at about $4.049 and has not looked back so far. With several dramatic boosts, it surged upwards and breached the resistance line at $4.825 to finish wave 3 in green. After this exhausting exertion, it put its delicate hand on its forehead, sighing: “I need to recline for a bit…”. This breather led to a descent back below $4.825, but also to a fast recovery. With more dramatic flourishes, NatGas rose higher still and nearly touched upon the green zone between $5.601 and $5.836. Although it has drawn back a bit again, fanning itself with an embroidered handkerchief, we expect Queen NatGas to make it into the green zone to conclude wave 5 in green. If its power suffices, it could even rise into the orange zone between $5.954 and $6.467 to finish wave 5 in green in addition to wave iii in orange there. After all these stresses and strains, we reckon with a distinct corrective movement, which should lead into the lower orange zone between $5.265 and $4.294. There, NatGas should complete the countermovement with wave iv in orange and be royally ready to rise into the upper orange zone between $7.297 and $7.810.
US NatGas Hits Trendline - Fundamentals Likely to Buoy Prices US natural gas futures (Henry Hub) are under pressure following a sharp surge higher, pinging former trendline support before easing. Prices may remain elevated, given colder-than-average temps expected to last through next week from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast US. Meanwhile, Europe continues to source a high amount of US LNG cargoes amid a supply crunch and looming Ukraine/Russia tensions. Volatility is likely to continue in the short term.
Natural Gas: Ready for a new uptrendAfter a correction of -45%, the uptrend resumes in the weekly support level. We bought it at $2 and we've been adding more positions ever since. The energy crisis in Europe is increasing as countries are moving to renewable energies. Germany and Belgium are closing nuclear reactors so we expect issues in terms of demand and supply, and the increasing inflation as well, that is moving the prices higher in commodities.
BOOOOOM. $BOIL hit target today for 62.89% in 29 daysBOOOOOM. $BOIL hit target today for 62.89% in 29 days
I’m just noticing now because it closed in premarket and I was so captivated by SPY today…
62.89% in 29 days!!! This is why I love trading NatGas!!!
Still looks bullish with a possible Golden Cross incoming so if you’re still in good luck…
I'm out... Until next time, BOIL
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On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average.
ONLY ADD at support levels & FIB levels… labeled (most of the time)
(Support=Green, Resistance=Red, Trendlines=Blue) Fib will be labeled if any and their colors will vary.)
I start every position with .5 - 1% of my account and build from there as needed and as possible.
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
$NATURAL GAS $UNG natural gas elliot waves + TL's plan in play. energy is dominating the mktplace and natty has been mostly overlooked
Natural Gas - Potential Path for next week? As we know, NATGAS is a beast with it's own mind and often technicals fail to support it's move, but here's one anyway!
As you can see there's a descending flag that has been accumulating and I've used a fib extension to determine it's next target.
It's severely oversold on the hourly and the 4hr charts, due to I'm sure the profit ejections from the previous run.
The most recent reports aren't that bearish IMO and I can see this easily taking flight again soon.