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Natgaslong

NatGas - New possibilitiesI would like to start with the indicators here. First of all the Slow Stochastic. Every time in the last 3 years when the StowStoch printed a flat bottom at the oversold levels it was followed by a strong rally in NatGas prices. Today the situation is the same : we have a flat bottom again. MACD is also crossing over after the extreme oversold levels and RSI already left the extremes. Last year's consolidation ruined the cycle count a bit. We clearly had an ICL on the 9th Nov 2016 but the next daily cycle dropped too much : on the 22th Feb 2017 we almost dropped to the ICL level at 2.387. It's still not crystal clear : was the 2017.02.22 low a DCL or an ICL of a very short cycle? This way or the other it was an important sign that NatGas was not ready to print an ultimate rally : we had a frustrating consolidation in 2017. The consolidations are pretty hard to trade if you are waiting for a strong trending rally. Every pattern is evolving into a new one. First we had a triangle, the triangle evolved into a range , the range broke down and later evolved into declining channel etc etc. Based on the indicators and price action I think Natgas is ready to rally again. I'm not sure it will be able to break out of the consolidation though... 20th Dec 2017 most probably was an ICL. If that is the case we mustn't drop below that level for a few weeks/months. The perfect scenario would have been to touch the trendline without taking out the lows of December 2017. I was waiting for this but it never happened. So we will enter here where indicators are clearly giving the reversal signs... My suggestion is to enter 15-20% margin impact here . If we tag the trendline in the following few days you can double the position. ***
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by chartwatchers
16
NATGAS Bullish Once MoreNATGAS has has both a strong local and general double bottom and is looking to retest 3.0-3.1 and higher before it sees 2.5 again. Strong gap up over weekend was very predictable as is evidenced from my idea last week. With both strong fundamentals (bullish report) and strong technicals (respected double bottoms) shorts would be wise to wait and watch for a while. For those who are getting in late, UGAZ should still be a good buy come market open on Tuesday with a safe selling target of 3.05 (in the NATGAS index) or possibly even higher should we break into the fib channel at 3.1 or so. Stay safe and good luck! EDIT: Attached is an image of the local double bottom in case you can't see it because of my text bubble.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Bikko_Koiwai
NatGas - NutGasIn my last idea I sugggested try to get in the trade somehow because the consolidation is over sooner or later and we are breaking out. Though we couldn't catch the exact bottom and the position got risky as we broke down of the range all who were able to hold through the panic are in profit today. There was an undercut low with a false breakdown of the range but today it just seems it was a final shakeout . My only concern : is that possible we had a mild ICL? Triangles and ranges are screwing the cycles so it's almost impossible to trade them based on cycles. We have to assume that the ICL is behind us on the 1st of November. We broke out of the range last week Thursday and the next resistance ahead of us at 3.161$. When a multi month consolidation like this breaks it bounces hard. So all who are not in the train will have to buy into the overbought conditions or wait for the never coming pullback. I still got many messages how to enter into a NatGas or UGAZ trade right now. It's really hard to help when the train is leaving the station. We entered early and had to bear a drawdawn where price seemed to go much lower. Contrarians didn't help us to hold the position, too... But it was still easier to enter early than to enter a position at the exact bottom. I saw a few people below my post who entered near to the exact bottom or added to the position at the lows. You can still check who had the balls to enter there and also post in real time . But the hardest part is just coming in the following weeks. Sit tight and let the winners run. It doesn't matter if you caught the exact bottom or not. The big money will be in the uptrend in the next 2 month. I still think that commodities are in a new bull market. Natty also holding above the 2015 and 2016 yearly lows . The pattern has the characteristic of accumulation which wants to break to the upside.( Volume is supporting the accumulation) I set the 200 SMA on the chart. We might or might not have a pullback to the 200 SMA from the next resistance level before breaking higher. Last year the seasonal rally was relentless. There was not much of a pullback. Though the ICL a few days ago was not that deep like last year: the consolidation was long enough to have a big rally into year end. RSI is already overbought so it's possible we will have a pullback, but it can also run for weeks in the overbought territory and before the daily cycle tops it will print an RSI divergence with higher high in the price. MACD still has a long way to run. LONG follow through idea. We are long from 2.855. We traded successfully last year's winter rally:
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by chartwatchers
510