NatGas - NutGasIn my last idea I sugggested try to get in the trade somehow because the consolidation is over sooner or later and we are breaking out.
Though we couldn't catch the exact bottom and the position got risky as we broke down of the range all who were able to hold through the panic are in profit today. There was an undercut low with a false breakdown of the range but today it just seems it was a final shakeout .
My only concern : is that possible we had a mild ICL? Triangles and ranges are screwing the cycles so it's almost impossible to trade them based on cycles. We have to assume that the ICL is behind us on the 1st of November. We broke out of the range last week Thursday and the next resistance ahead of us at 3.161$.
When a multi month consolidation like this breaks it bounces hard. So all who are not in the train will have to buy into the overbought conditions or wait for the never coming pullback. I still got many messages how to enter into a NatGas or UGAZ trade right now.
It's really hard to help when the train is leaving the station. We entered early and had to bear a drawdawn where price seemed to go much lower. Contrarians didn't help us to hold the position, too... But it was still easier to enter early than to enter a position at the exact bottom. I saw a few people below my post who entered near to the exact bottom or added to the position at the lows. You can still check who had the balls to enter there and also post in real time .
But the hardest part is just coming in the following weeks. Sit tight and let the winners run. It doesn't matter if you caught the exact bottom or not. The big money will be in the uptrend in the next 2 month.
I still think that commodities are in a new bull market. Natty also holding above the 2015 and 2016 yearly lows . The pattern has the characteristic of accumulation which wants to break to the upside.( Volume is supporting the accumulation)
I set the 200 SMA on the chart. We might or might not have a pullback to the 200 SMA from the next resistance level before breaking higher.
Last year the seasonal rally was relentless. There was not much of a pullback. Though the ICL a few days ago was not that deep like last year: the consolidation was long enough to have a big rally into year end. RSI is already overbought so it's possible we will have a pullback, but it can also run for weeks in the overbought territory and before the daily cycle tops it will print an RSI divergence with higher high in the price. MACD still has a long way to run.
LONG follow through idea. We are long from 2.855.
We traded successfully last year's winter rally:
