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XNGUSD ( Natural gas ) Short Term Selling ideaHello Traders
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Natural gas: When will the bloodshed stop?Natural gas prices (US Henry Hub) plunged 20% in the first week of 2023, dropping below pre-Russian invasion of Ukraine levels and continuing losses seen in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The sell-off was violent, mimicking a falling knife pattern, with prices sliding back to levels seen towards the end of 2021 and the RSI returning to oversold territory. aPrices are now two standard deviations lower than the 20-day moving average, while the 50-day and 200-day moving averages trade 70% and 100% above, respectively, than current prices. The decline from the highs reached in August is around 65%.
It appears that the apocalypse has arrived for the asset class that rose by 100% in the first eleven months of 2022, outperforming all major markets, only to lose all of its profits in one month.
Extremely high temperatures in Europe and the United States over the winter season kept natural gas supplies plentiful, causing prices to fall. According to NOAA predictions, temperatures on the North American continent will be above normal again in January 2023.
Prices for natural gas have hit a support level not seen in over a year, suggesting that an abundance of pessimism is already included into market valuations. Below this level of support, the next level to watch is 3.02 (June 2021 lows) and the psychological 3.00 level. That would imply a 70% loss from the peak, which would support some dip buying given that the market has not yet fully resolved the 2022 geopolitical issues.
In this case, technical analysis suggests that further declines are likely to be contained; similar oversold RSI levels in the past have been followed by weeks of bullish price action, suggesting that this sharp decline may not be without some upward potential. Prices might return to 4.47, the level at which they traded on the day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Target 3.6Following weekly chart.
2.5 years old trend has been nearly broken.
Also there is a clear H&S formation. If it breaks
TP1 4.29
TP2 3.6
SL - follow weekly close above 6.85
NatGas: Don't trip 🚶🏼NatGas is currently facing down and should leave the turquoise target zone to climb below the support line at $4.750 to complete the pink wave iii. Our alternative scenario implies, that the course could rise above the resistance mark at $7.064 instead, if the course would stay above the $5.337-mark. After the completion of the pink iii in our primary scenario, we're expecting the course to rise between $4.750 and $5.337 to finish off the pink wave iv, before dropping back South. The downwards slope should stretch until the turquoise target zone between $3.436 and $1.880 to end the green wave .
#Natgas short opportunitycontractionary monitory policy on one hand and full storage of European countries to cover the winter put pressure on energy commodities like oil, Natgas and etc..
from technical point of view we are in bullish corrective move after massive impulsive Daily bearish move which took out the Daily low. Price on the way down formed measuring gap which also got filled by price corrective move.
Now there are 2 key areas above current price which can bring selling pressure and cause topping formation but if price can close above the first arrow in 4H timeframe or higher then we expect price to goes higher to test the high.
Natural gas: head and shoulders top pattern; $5 in sight?US natural gas prices have formed a head and shoulders top pattern, which may signal a weakening of the current major bullish trend and a subsequent reversal into a bearish one.
The left shoulder coincided with the relative highs at the end of July at $9.30/MMbtu, a level that was then followed by a pullback to $7.53 (August 8) prior to the beginning of a new rally toward the head at nearly $10.
The right shoulder was formed by the decline from $9.97 to $7.80, followed by a brief rebound at $9.22 and another decline to the current $7.86.
Although a brief breakdown was seen in the September 19 session, natural gas is now testing the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. If confirmed, we could see a return to the level of $5.30, which were hit in early July 2022.
Additional bearish technical signals for the price of US natural gas include the MACD oscillator dipping below the zero line and the RSI slightly pointing south.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
NATURAL GAS 📉📉📉Expecting bullish price action on this pair but simply on a fundamental reason, price tapped on 7.0$ institional figure taking out some retail stops below this price area and for now we are going for the ATH - ALL TIME HIGH.
What do you think ? Comment below..
USGAS TAKE PROFIT HIT 📉📉📉📉 I CLOSED ALL TRADES IN PROFIT ON USGAS, we are still bullish on this asset from a fundamental/tehnical analysis context. My last target for this asset is 6.0,i think we will go there but not before price makes a retracement back into 5.0 institutional figure H4 Imbalance + bullish orderblock area.
What do you think ? Do you agree on my analysis ?
Natural Gas (NYMEX) - Weekly UpdateNatural Gas - Weekly
Bottom Line : "Big-picture" Bullish.
Repeating : The higher probability view is to label the Primary wave ((C)) decline as an ending diagonal to complete Cycle y . Ending diagonals are terminal structures. They are typically followed by swift reversals that retrace the entire length of the pattern. There’s not enough historical price data to confidently assess the wave degrees above Cycle, but a multi-year rally from the Cycle wave y low is likely to retrace the bulk of the decline from the 15.78 all-time high set in 2005 .
NATURAL GAS INTO 5.50 - 6.00 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on NATURAL GAS as we have fundamental reasons behind a strong bullish move the war between Ukraine-Russia + sanctions that will affect the supply/demand of this asset, another fundamental reason why price will go higher way above 5.0 is because we have a BULLISH MARKET SEASONALITY till July.
From a technical perspective institutional figures 4.0 - 4.50 keeps the price bullish, we have a clear bullish market strucutre just be patient and ADD LONGS.
What do you think ?
NATURAL GAS LONGS 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on this asset as the price of natural gas should rise from a seasonality point of view, we have a bullish market strucutre on H4/D1 timeframe as price keeps making higher highs and lower highs during the move, i will switch my bullish bias only if price will close bearish below the 4.0 area which is a important institutional level.
What do you think ? Comment below..
Well this interesting...Certain geopolitical events, rising prices in Europe and cold snaps across North America seem to be pushing Natural Gas higher. It's broken a key overhead resistance but upside will be limited. You can see some of the previous support lines which do correspond rather nicely with the last move downwards. This is strictly a short-term play unless other resistances and a falling dollar pickup pace.
NatGas: Take out your gloves!NatGas is slowly leaving the warm realms of the south behind, aiming for the resistance line at $4.825. Once there, we expect it to rise even further north.
However, we also see a 42% chance that the price could decide to soak in some more warmth and go below the support line at $3.396.
Natural Gas Forecast: Working Off Selling PressureThe natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the session on Thursday, hanging about the $3.80 level. Over the last year or so, I have been asked to do less analysis on natural gas, but quite frankly my email box has been full of questions as to what is going to happen with natural gas next. Retail traders have no idea, nor do some professional traders for that matter, that this contract is based solely upon the United States, meaning that what is going on in Europe or Asia has very little effect. In fact, the United States only exports 12,000,000,000 ft.³ a year, which seems like a lot but it is not.
Currently, Rotterdam gas futures are trading at about nine times what the Henry Hub contract is. That can bring in a little bit of demand but transporting natural gas across the ocean is not easy. Because of this, a lot of retail traders that I have been contacted from have lost a fortune in this contract over the last month or so. It is because they do not understand that they need to pay attention to US weather patterns, and basically ignore what is going on in their own backyard.
If you did not know this, do not be ashamed. I have recently had a conversation with somebody who runs a larger commodity fund who had no idea that natural gas contracts were so localized. He trades millions of dollars, which tells you just how uninformed some people can be. That being said, I felt the need to do this video due to the fact that somebody of you have been losing money as you are watching problems with Vladimir Putin delivering gas to the EU, etc.
Temperatures in the United States should be much milder than initially thought for most of the winter, meaning that the United States, which is absolutely swimming in natural gas, will continue to see lower pricing. We have recently gapped lower, and I do think that we will try to fill that gap as most futures markets will tend to do. I will be shorting this contract of the first signs of exhaustion near the 200 day EMA which happens to be at the top of the gap, right around $4.16. We have seen the high for the winter, as we are trading the January contract already, meaning that before you know it will be trading springtime contracts.
NatGas: There is Room! 🔥🔥🔥NatGas is extending the correction way below the mark at $4.825. Now, there is still some more room left at the bottom. In total, we expect the course to fall between $3.969 and $3.795. Ideally, the turnaround will happen here. If we, however, fall below $3.396, greater corrections will be realized here.
It's getting close!
Gas Long SetupGAS Long Setup
🔵 Entry Level: $5.673
🟢 Take Profit: $6.094
⛔ Stop Loss: $5.441
Reasons:
- So far the price is respecting the ascending channel;
- I believe the price may bounce off the lower trendline in the area between $5.535 and $5.670.
Game Plan: If the price goes through the lower trendline (yellow), which at the moment acts as a support level, then I will be looking to open a short position on a retracement unless the 2nd trendline (white) acts as another support level.