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Natgassignals

Natural Gas Forecast: Working Off Selling PressureThe natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the session on Thursday, hanging about the $3.80 level. Over the last year or so, I have been asked to do less analysis on natural gas, but quite frankly my email box has been full of questions as to what is going to happen with natural gas next. Retail traders have no idea, nor do some professional traders for that matter, that this contract is based solely upon the United States, meaning that what is going on in Europe or Asia has very little effect. In fact, the United States only exports 12,000,000,000 ft.³ a year, which seems like a lot but it is not. Currently, Rotterdam gas futures are trading at about nine times what the Henry Hub contract is. That can bring in a little bit of demand but transporting natural gas across the ocean is not easy. Because of this, a lot of retail traders that I have been contacted from have lost a fortune in this contract over the last month or so. It is because they do not understand that they need to pay attention to US weather patterns, and basically ignore what is going on in their own backyard. If you did not know this, do not be ashamed. I have recently had a conversation with somebody who runs a larger commodity fund who had no idea that natural gas contracts were so localized. He trades millions of dollars, which tells you just how uninformed some people can be. That being said, I felt the need to do this video due to the fact that somebody of you have been losing money as you are watching problems with Vladimir Putin delivering gas to the EU, etc. Temperatures in the United States should be much milder than initially thought for most of the winter, meaning that the United States, which is absolutely swimming in natural gas, will continue to see lower pricing. We have recently gapped lower, and I do think that we will try to fill that gap as most futures markets will tend to do. I will be shorting this contract of the first signs of exhaustion near the 200 day EMA which happens to be at the top of the gap, right around $4.16. We have seen the high for the winter, as we are trading the January contract already, meaning that before you know it will be trading springtime contracts.
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by SmoothJB
GAS Testing Support Level - Long OrderGAS Testing Support Level - Long Position Entry: $2.566 TP & RR: $2.673 (2.49) Stop Loss: $2.523 REASONS FOR THE TRADE This looks a lot like the infamous " market maker method ", so I am expecting the price to continue trending down even below my entry zone. The logical question is then why are we opening a long trade? Well, if this support holds and I believe it will, even for a short bounce, then the RR is pretty decent if the price reaches the upper trendline. We can then open a short order with a SL just above it. My SL here is very tight and I do warn you that you may get stopped, so adjust it accordingly. I will use slightly less than my traditional trading size, thus limiting my loss, and be able to re-enter again if the setup turns out to be valid.
OLong
by Quant_
2
Gas Long SetupGAS Long Setup 🔵 Entry Level: $5.673 🟢 Take Profit: $6.094 ⛔ Stop Loss: $5.441 Reasons: - So far the price is respecting the ascending channel; - I believe the price may bounce off the lower trendline in the area between $5.535 and $5.670. Game Plan: If the price goes through the lower trendline (yellow), which at the moment acts as a support level, then I will be looking to open a short position on a retracement unless the 2nd trendline (white) acts as another support level.
CLong
by Quant_
1
Gas Long SetupGas Long Setup (refer to the setup marked with "2") 🔵 Entry: $2.704 🟢 TP & RR: $2.898 (3.4) ⛔ Stop Loss: $2.647 Trade Reasons: ✔️ Support level ✔️ Close to the 0.618 Fib retracement ✔️ Diagonal trend line within ascending channel 📝 A few things to note here: 1. Seeing how price action develops, you may close the trade setup suggested yesterday (marked as 1). You should end up with a tiny profit or break even (depending on the comission you pay). The current candle formation does not look promising for a long setup. Alternatively, trial the SL up as soon as/if price starts moving up. 2. I personally avoid having open positions near my entry level before the weekend, especially if that weekend happens to be the end of the month. So for me, this is a disproportionate risk. 3. Setup marked as "2" is the order I will be looking to open if price retraces to that level. The Stop Loss is not ideal, as I think it should be slighly under the 0.618 level, but I leave this up to you. Your RRR will decrease in proporiton to the distance to your SL.
OLong
by Quant_
Gas Long SetupGas Long Setup 🔵 Entry: $2.81 🟢 TP & RR: $3.04 (1.71) ⛔ Stop Loss: $2.67 Trade Reasons: ✔️ Reaching lower trend line ✔️ Reaching support level ✔️ Market Flow indicator printing small divergences in the oversold area 📝 Not a great RRR, but the SL is positioned at a very safe level below the diagonal trendline and the recent lowest low. If price bounces off that level I will be quick to trial the SL so that I minimize exposure and lock in some profits.
OLong
by Quant_
GAS Fibonacci Retracement - Long TradeGas Fib Retracement - Long Order Entry: $2.407 TP & RR: $2.549 (3.38) Stop Loss: $2.365 REASONS FOR THE TRADE So far Gas has respected the Fibonacci levels twice, leading me to believe that we may see a bounce from the 0.236 level and a potential reversal. We also have a descending trendline, which I am not sure how well will be respected, but it's worth keeping in mind. The Stop Loss is set at a reasonable distance from the Fib level and the target is at the 0.5 level. Although, if a reversal follows from 0.238, we may keep at least part of our position for higher levels.
OLong
by Quant_
Gas Climbing Up - Long OrderGas Climbing Up - Long Position Entry: $2.715 TP & RR: $2.877 (3) Stop Loss: $2.661 REASONS FOR THE TRADE So far price action has formed a diagonal trend line, so I believe if it respects that level the price should bounce up and head towards a double top. There's also the possibility that we don't get filled and the price starts trending up without us, which is fine. We want to put the SL at a level that makes sense and the only one such is just too far, giving us a pretty bad Risk:Reward Ratio.
OLong
by Quant_
Gas Upper Trendline - Short PositionGas Upper Trendline - Short Trade Entry: $2.845 TP & RR: $2.693 (2.08) Stop Loss: $2.918 REASONS FOR THE TRADE After the breakout from the descending channel, we see the price sliding up an inclined trend line. However, the price is now reaching major resistance and I believe there will be a small pullback before potential continuation to the 1.618 Fib Level. The Market Flow indicator is also starting to revert, indicating weakness. The entry is somewhat conservative since we give the price some more room to continue up before we enter the trade. Opening a position against the trend is rarely a smart idea. The Stop Loss is well above the trendline, which doesn't give us a great RR, but at least we will have more time to assess the price action and potentially close the position if things are not looking too good.
OShort
by Quant_
2