NatGas - Missed or Escaped?I got a few messages that we missed the NatGas rally. I'm not so sure about it...
Yes we missed this pop, but it looks fishy to me.
We are in the 2nd daily cycle of Natty and this daily cycle was not able to run to new highs. The previous daily cycle was a great run but the daily cycle decline was too strong... We got very close to the the ICL low at 2,4$. I was close to call a DCL at 24-25th April but after that scary first daily cycle low we should have had a steeper DCL...
Today's whole candlestick is out of the Bollinger Bands . This signal with the overbought RSI with decreasing volume is really strange.
So I think we are not at the beginning of a new daily cycle as many traders think, but we just topped today.
So I think we not missed the rally but escaped the possible false breakout of this consolidation.
If this is the case and we topped today this daily cycle is left translated daily cycle with a lower high which means a failed daily cycle.
Based on this speculation I will start a short trade in Natty here.
It's going to be a very small trade , with small margin impact : 2-3%, maximum 5%.
If I'm not right the volume will come in and we are breaking higher in the following few days but first price needs to get back between the Bollinger Bands . So we will still have time to stop out the position if we are in the wrong direction.
NEW SHORT ENTRY - up to 5% margin impact.
It's a very risky trade because Natty is a beast if it runs... If we don't reverse in 2-3 days and start a serious decline I will stop the position.
