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Natural Gas

NATURAL GAS: Ahead of a 12 month Bull Market at least.Natural Gas is on a very sharp four month decline after failing to cross over the 1M MA50, the second most aggressive four month drop so far in the past 19 years. Since the July 2008 High, the market is trading inside a Channel Down and this sharp decline is technically the final phase of the Bearish Wave to a LL at the bottom of the Channel Down. That means that a long term buy opportunity is gradually approaching and we are estimating a fair target level to be 1.400 unless the 1M RSI touches the 15 year Buy Zone earlier. Every bottom rebound extended initially to at least +134% and that is our target (TP = 3.100) for the next 12 months. It will also be a potential test of the 1M MA200. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by InvestingScope
BOIL vs KOLD Natural Gas Leveraged ETFs : LONG KOLDThe KOLD / Boil Ratio is shown here on a daily char. A rising ratio level indicates KOLD is rising and BOIL is falling making the ratio rather extreme If KOLD rises 10% in a week and so BOIL falls, in a hypothetical say they start out 140 and 20 respectively and KOLD goes to 154 while KOLD falls to 18 the ratio moves from 7 to 154/18 = 8.55 the ratio moves 22% for the week. What does this all mean ? With triple leveraging and management fees taken out long leveraged ETF shares may experience time decay on a daily basis. Share values are net after expenses. From the chart's visible the only time the ratio fell and BOIL was the long play was September 25,'23 to November 15, '23 and December 14, '23 to January 14, '24. In 2023 prior to late September KOLD was always the long play, In 2024, after January 15 and to the present KOLD is the long play and the ratio is accelerating and getting more volatile as it is potentially getting over-extended. Combined volume in the range of 20 M /day is 2X showing great interest by market participants. I conclude especially since natural gas spot prices are falling as recession fears are not yet in the past, that KOLD is the leveraged gas futures ETF to take long. This trader considers the management fees as a cost of business. The futures are stratified and leveraged obivously the cost brings value. I will take shares of KOLD and take a call or two along the way for an expiration in the fall whenever price rises about an even $5.00 amount to be assured of the lowest price. I will follow KOLD on a 60-90 minute chart looking for topping wicks or a price fall under the EMA 7 as a sign that it should be on watch for a market top. Frankly, I do not expect to see it. This is because on the 2-time frame RSI indicator ( by Chris Moody) with the 4H in green and the 1W in red, both lines are rising and in a healthy 75 +/- range. If they top out and fall, then I again think I might be seeing bullish divergence and put the trade on watch. For those who trade VWAP bands and volume profile, the ratio has been in an obvious breakout since early November with a pullback in mid-December after the ratio rose outside the third upper VWAP band. Using the VWAP bands and the volume profile will make any fades very obvious most especially on lower time frames.
AMEX:KOLDLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
Natural Gas LONG TERM TRADE analysis Hello Traders In This Chart NATGAS HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today NATGAS analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (NATGAS market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NATGAS Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ForexPlanet20
BOIL reverses from a quick downtrend LONGBOIL on may 9th went into hard resistance in the highest VWAP line area, the Hull moving averages did a death cross and it fell 12% into the support of the first upper standard deviation line where it double bottomed with a reversal. The ZL MACD shows lines and trends that are confirmatory. As a result, I have closed my short trade from my prior idea and revested the capital gained into a long position of stock and calls. If you are interested in knowing targets or stop losses, please leave a comment.
AMEX:BOIL
by AwesomeAvani
1
☄ Natural Gas Futures: This Is Ground Control To Major TomThis publication was partially created by ChatGPT AI, under request to Highlight Ten Factors That Could Drive Natural Gas Prices Below Zero in 2023. Good or bad, y'all be the judge. But here's what ChatGPT said... As an AI, I cannot guarantee the accuracy of such statements, but based on common knowledge, the following factors may be the reasons why natural gas prices drop below zero in 2023: 1. Growth in the use of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind energy. 2. Increasing US shale gas production, which will lead to an increase in global supply. 3. Reduced demand for natural gas due to switching to other types of fuel. 4. Increasing natural gas production in highly competitive countries such as Russia and Qatar. 5. The weakening of economic activity in various countries of the world, including China, the US and Europe. 6. Reducing inflation in various countries, which reduces the cost of natural gas. 7. A record increase in natural gas inventories caused by a reduction in demand and an increase in production. 8. Disputes between countries-suppliers and consumers of natural gas, which may lead to a decrease in exports and imports. 9. Increasing competition in the natural gas market from other producers such as Iran and Iraq. 10. Development of new technologies that make it possible to obtain energy from other sources without the use of natural gas. Technical picture in Natural Gas Futures indicates the biggest YTD decline over the all history of Natural Gas Futures trading since early 1990x. The main chart is adjusted for futures change All History Chart.
NYMEX:NG1!
by PandorraResearch
11
NATURAL GAS Ultimate Cycles cheat sheet shows sell isn't over.Those who follow us for long know that when trading Natural Gas (NG1!) we use a very distinct long-term pattern that has been in effect for more than ten years and last time (January 22 2023, see chart below) has helped us take a new short at 3.174, running so far +100% in profit: As you see on this 1W chart, the price is now below the High Volatility Zone, but the bottom isn't in yet as there is still room before touching the 15 year Lower Lows trend-line nor has the Sine Wave reached its bottom. At the same time the 1M RSI is breaking below its own Higher Lows trend-line, which is a bearish signal. We estimate a Target Zone within 1.300 - 1.250. Note that a 1W Death Cross was formed in August 2023 and since the March 2009 formation, NG prices a bottom significantly (at least 9 months) later. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TradingShot
2
THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW. NATTY GOES CRAZYNatty is a slang term for 'natural gas' or natural gas futures. Natural gas is among the most-volatile commodities, especially in contracts for prompt delivery. A big reason why is the demand for natural gas varies considerably based on the weather as it's primarily a heating fuel; though it's increasingly used in electricity production and that can also make it subject to swings on hot summer weather due to air conditioning demand. Increasingly, LNG demand also dictates the price of natural gas. Forecasters from Atmospheric G2 said last Thursday that above-average temperatures are expected for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. from Feb. 6 to 10. Natural gas prices are also under pressure after the Freeport LNG natural gas export terminal in Texas announced in January, 2024 that it would close one of its three production units for a month for repairs after extreme cold in Texas damaged equipment. The closure of one of the power units will limit the export of natural gas from the United States and increase its supply. Front NYMEX:NGH2024 Natural Gas futures contract recently fell to all-time low, below $1.900 mark. An unusually mild winter reduced demand for natural gas and kept U.S. inventories high. Forecasters at Maxar Technologies said last Wednesday that weather is forecast to become warmer over the next two weeks from the Rockies to the Midwest. According to BNEF, Lower 48 States Dry Natural Gas production on Wednesday amounted to 104.2 bcf per day (+4.2% y/y). Demand for Lower 48 States Dry Natural Gas was 93.1 bcfas of Wednesday, according to BNEF. (+8.9% y/y), and net LNG flows to US LNG export terminals declined to 13.5 bcf as of Wednesday. (-4.2% by weight). Reduced U.S. electricity production will negatively impact demand for natural gas from utility providers. The Edison Electrical Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity production fell -8.1% year-over-year for the week ending Feb. 3, and total electricity production in the US for the 52-week period ending February 3 fell by -0.4%. The US Climate Prediction Center said there is a more than 55% chance that current El Niño weather conditions will remain strong in the Northern Hemisphere through March, keeping temperatures above average and putting pressure on natural gas prices. AccuWeather predicts also El Niño will limit snowfall in Canada this season and also cause above-normal temperatures in North America. Gas storage facilities in Europe were 71% full as of January 29, above the five-year seasonal average of 58 percent for this time of year. Baker Hughes reported a week ago on Friday that the number of active U.S. natural gas drilling rigs fell by -1 rig to 119 rigs for the week ended Jan. 26, just above the two-year low of 113 rigs recorded on Sept. 8. Rising to a 4.5-year high of 166 rigs in September 2022 from the pandemic-era low of 68 rigs recorded in July 2020 (data dating back to 1987), rigs number decreases again, since Q4'22. Recent EIA report showed in full accordance with expectations, a decrease in reserves of -75 bcf that is much less than the 5-year average for this time of year of -193 bcf. The main technical chart is for United States Natural Gas Fund LP AMEX:UNG ETF that offers straightforward exposure to front-month natural gas futures Basically this graph clear illustrates that disinflation era is still exists, as bearish sentiment is still prevails in the market since the Q4'022, after a key 5yrs SMA breakthrough. Perhaps this is the end, and market capitulation is almost right there, as it typically happens each time in long-term downward market trends.
AMEX:UNG
by PandorraResearch
5
Natural Gas - Before Ouching Territory, Let's Rally to $3.8One thing appears to be rather obvious: crude's rally has fizzled out: Oil - Bulls Will Be Totally Annihilated And that's bad news for bulls. If crude's rally has fizzled, can natural gas counter rally? Well, natty hasn't done much all year. One of the reasons is probably that the world, which is controlled by the Communist Party, wants to SaVe ThE WoRlD FrOm CliMatE cHaNge by destroying the plastic industry, which natural gas supplied. Next, they want to get rid of furnaces, which natural gas supplies, and have everyone live on heat pumps (an air conditioner with a blow side that can get hot instead of just cold), which rely on electricity and not natural gas. At least electricity generation itself still mostly relies on natural gas, and that's never going to be replaced by solar and wind because the technology doesn't meet the requirements of modern consumption. At the end of July, I called that Natty would not go up until it goes down more, because it seemed to me at the time that the charts just don't have institutional support to go uppy past $10 this year. NatGas - No Moon Until Doom \ Right now, if you want to go long on anything, because it doesn't matter if it's DoCToR CoPpEr or equities or gold, you have to be either low risk or hedged, because of the imminent threat of the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi Jinping has the game theory problem of being the head of the most wicked and heinous regime in all of human history, the Party that dared to commit organ harvesting and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners. Although that persecution was launched by former, and now-dead Chairman Jiang Zemin, and although Xi has been killing the Jianglings for years in his Anti-corruption Campaign, the problem is Xi is still the head of the Party, and you always kill a dragon by severing its head. And its tail was already severed recently when former Premier Li Keqiang was killed by "an heart attack" at the ripe age of 68, which is very young for a Party prince to die. If Xi dumps the CCP Gorbachev-USSR style in the middle of the night, especially if it happens on a Friday or a Saturday, everything is going to be gap down gap down gap down gap down and never come back because of the time difference between Beijing and Manhattan. And if Xi really is too stupid to do that much, there's still a raging pandemic besieging Zhongnanhai, and the Emperor's bedroom has never been immune to plague. So over the last few months, what's happened with natural gas is, it's up apparently a lot. Like, from $2.7 to $3.6 sort of a lot and looked almost rampy on the monthly bars until it corrected this November: The weekly, though, shows the pain that the rallies keep getting sold off: And this is because the rallies weren't really rallies. What would happen is one month would settle and the next month's contract, which is trading in contango, would roll in and give the appearance of uppy and smash up levered futures traders. But the ETFs show that natty has done absolutely nothing all year. UNG, which is an unlevered fund: Is down 56% this year, hasn't rallied one bit, and looks poised to break necks around $4, because what doesn't go up is going to go down. It's been flat for too long. 2x leverage BOIL (long) had a 20:1 reverse split 6 months ago, never rallied, and looks pretty puketacular right now: And 2x leverage KOLD (short): Has spent 6 months in a 35% range killing options buyers in what looks like a "bear flag" that's just taken way too long to do the thing bear flags are supposed to do. And so we can only surmise that the once-fabled $1.8 to $1.6 range on Natty is incoming. Perhaps we'll see this magic before the end of the year. If you want to short natty, I have some reservations that this $3.6 monthly high is going to remain the monthly high, because it was set on the first day of the month. And so there is a potential trade opportunity, roughly now, to take out like $3.8 and net a 25% bagger. Or just wait until $3.7 and go short on a size that you aren't going to get liquidated on until $5 and be willing to put up with $4 for a day or two. But most importantly, natty couldn't possibly have topped at $10, and simultaneously couldn't possibly have bottomed at $1.9 with the way 2023 is playing out. The most sadistic MMs on any asset are the Natty overlords and they're about to get started, I believe.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by LordWrymouth
4
Elliott Waves: Natural Gas case study Overview: Since the significant bottom in June 2020, Natural Gas embarked on a compelling journey, forming a fresh impulse that concluded around the highs of August 2022 as Wave I in the Cycle Degree. The subsequent phase witnessed a corrective move, labeled as Wave II on the weekly timeframe, comprising three subdivisions: ((A)), ((B)), and ((C)). The current focus is on the ongoing Wave ((C)) on the Daily timeframe, expected to unfold in five subdivisions: (1), (2), (3), (4), and (5). Within this framework, Wave (1) to (4) are complete, and attention now turns to the unfolding of Wave (5) on the Four-Hourly timeframe. Current Structure: On the Four-Hourly timeframe, Natural Gas is in the process of forming Wave (5), consisting of Wave 1, 2, and the ongoing development of Wave 3. The details of Wave 3 are further observed on the Hourly timeframe as finished wave ((i)) & ((ii)) and now possibly we are unfolding Wave ((iii)) of 3 of (5) of ((C)) of II. Elliott Wave Principles: Corrective Structure: Wave II is corrective, manifesting as a complex correction with three subdivisions, labeled ((A)), ((B)), and ((C)). Impulse Formation: The primary upward movement from June 2020 to August 2022 represents an impulse, characterized by a sequence of five waves. Subdivision Details: Each wave and subdivision unfolds according to Elliott Wave principles, maintaining the structural integrity of the overall pattern. Learning Points: Analyzing Market Cycles: Elliott Wave Analysis serves as a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of markets, providing insights into the psychology of both buyers and sellers. Trend Anticipation: Corrective waves within the Elliott Wave framework offer a strategic opportunity to foresee potential trends—whether they signify a resumption or reversal of the existing trend. Elliott Wave Analysis is a tool to decipher market cycles, offering insights into the psychological dynamics of buyers and sellers. Corrective waves provide an opportunity to anticipate trend resumption or reversal. The principle of non-overlapping waves helps identify the structure of the market move. Validation and Risk Management: The integrity of this Elliott Wave structure is contingent on Wave II not surpassing the low of Wave I, identified at $1.440. A breach of this level would invalidate the current wave count. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by RK_Chaarts
20
NATURAL GAS: Buy opportunity near oversold levels.Natural Gas is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 33.738, MACD = -0.139, ADX = 32.983) right at the bottom of the three month Channel Down. Last time the 1D RSI dipped under 30.000 (oversold level), the LL was formed, the Channel Down bottomed and posted a strong December-January rally. Due to the long term bearish trend on NG, we don't expect such a rally this time but the price is low enough to justify a short term buy to test the 1D MA50 (TP = 2.500). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by InvestingScope
6