Natural Gas
NATURAL GAS: Long term Cycles target 1.400.Natural Gas is very consistent with its long term patterns and in particular Cycles that have been in effect since the 2008 crisis. The dominant pattern since then has been a Channel Down and with the application of the Fibonacci levels we get a good understanding of the Cyclical phases. We need to look at the 1W timeframe for that, where the technical is already bearish (RSI = 40.467, MACD = 0.009, ADX = 38.451), recently rejected near the 1W MA200 and now under the 1W MA50.
We can see another three patterns with declines under the 1W MA50 after a 1W Death Cross formation. All pushed near the bottom of the Channel Down, with only the 2009-2012 taking longer. Every monthly rally is a sell entry for us from now on (TP = 1.400).
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NATURAL GAS Turned bearish but short below the 1D MA200.Natural Gas (NG) opened today below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern and that is of course the strongest indication that the market has turned bearish long-term. The first sign was breaking and closing below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which hasn't been done since June 14.
The safest course of action would be to sell after the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) breaks and target first the bottom of the Support Zone at 2.425 and after a bounce, 2.135 (Support 2) in extension.
Until the 1D MA200 breaks though, we can see a dead-cat-bounce if the price breaks the Lower Highs trend-line and closes above the 1D MA100 again. If that happens before, as well as the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, we will buy first the target Resistance at 3.275.
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DBW in TTF FM hourly. New up or Gap CloseThe TTF FM is trapped in a sideway movement. After a cone and SKS formation which was resolved bearish with the slump to 43,2 we now see a completed but still not active DBW. The ideal upper target (box) is 51, the statistical target is the equal to the important top at 49.5
The bearish breakout would be at 43,2 and would imply the gap close at 37.
Typically DBW are most of the time bullish reversal/continuation figures, thus a bullish break out is the more likely case.
Managing Positions with Parallel ChannelVideo tutorial:
• How to identify downtrend and uptrend line
• How to draw parallel channel correctly
• Confirming a change in trend (using trendline itself)
• Managing positions with parallel lines
- Profits
- Risks
- Knowing its volatility
Micro Natural Gas Futures & Its Minimum Fluctuation
0.001 per MMBtu = $1.00
Code: MNG
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