NATURAL GAS BEARISH TREND IS ABOUT TO CONTINUEMy analysis for CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS please BOOST and FOLLOW for more analysis and trading ideas
Natural Gas
NatGas UpdatePreviously I mentioned that I had to pause trading in Natural Gas as the price action was uncertain from the Elliott Wave perspective without clear impulse waves up. Since then, the price has been moving within the boundaries of outlined complex scenarios of either - expanding or contracting leading diagonals. The price penetrated wave [ w] territory confirming my thinking. Once wave c of (y) of [ x] completes, I might risk opening new longs.
XNGUSD BUY Long Trade Active, Time to Buy NAT-GASMy Trade Setup
Buy on current price (2.6000)
Take Profit Targets
Target 1: 3.5
Target 2: 5.0
Target 3: 6.0
Greetings, fellow traders!
I would like to share a long trade setup on NAT-Gas that has the potential for high profitability, an opportunity not to be overlooked. NAT-GAS prices have been steadily declining over the past nine months, indicating a strong bearish trend. However, it appears that this downward trend is coming to an end, and we can expect prices to rise in the months of July, August, and September. Both technical analysis and fundamental factors support a long buy setup for NAT-Gas.
Technical Analysis:
From a technical perspective, XNGUSD has found support in the 2.1000 area, leading to a rebound that is reinforcing the bullish momentum in prices. Indicators in the monthly timeframe have become highly oversold, further supporting a bullish price action. Additionally, NAT-Gas prices are currently trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a change in trend from downward to upward. The first major hurdle to overcome is the resistance area of 3-3.5. If the price manages to stay above 3.5 and a weekly candle closes above that level, it will indicate further upward movement, potentially driving prices towards the psychological mark of 5.00.
Fundamental Analysis:
In terms of fundamental analysis, there are several factors at play. NAT-Gas inventories are expected to decrease by 4 BCF, a figure larger than the five-year average. Moreover, maintenance activities at key LNG plants have resulted in a 10% decrease in US LNG exports for the month of June. European gas demand has also experienced a decline in the final week of June due to scheduled maintenance at plants. However, analysts anticipate an increase in LNG exports this quarter as maintenance activities conclude. The shift in gas supply from Russia to the United States in Europe is expected to stimulate prices, leading to the opening of many long trades. Additionally, the 50-day EMA indicates growing support, and traders are expected to become more active this month in order to secure substantial profits within a short period of time.
The increase in gas flow to LNG export plants, coupled with a positive demand outlook, is boosting NAT-GAS prices. In Texas, power usage has remained high and even reached record levels during the recent heatwave, consequently driving up gas consumption for electricity generation. The forecast predicts hot weather in the southern, western, and eastern parts of the US from 3-9 July. As temperatures rise, analysts anticipate an increase in US gas demand, including exports. In June, US exports to Mexico saw an average increase of 6.6 Bcf/d. All these factors combined contribute to the bullish price momentum of NAT-Gas.
Best wishes, and may you be rewarded with significant profits!
Natural Gas - KeyLevels for next WeekIf you wanna take a trade on NATURAL GAS, maybe before that, you need to conisder this KeyLevels of support and resistance areas.
Careful with shorts until on daily is bullish / upptrend + August and september is coming , when de big companies refreshes their stocks for the winter
Natural Gas Stock Forecast | Gold Silver | Price Level Trend- Natural gas stock negated that hourly downtrend and bulls played defense
- natural gas natgas stock bounced off of strong support and now we have just have to break prior 2.8 high to continue the daily uptrend towards 3
- Gold & Silver Stock Falling Wedge Guide.
NatGas Gold Silver Forecast | QQQ Market Analysis- Natural Gas stock slight red flag today
- Natural Gas NatGas bull break above resistance today with no bull follow through and came below the resistance.
- Gold & Silver Stock Falling Wedge Guide.
- Silver is outperforming Gold and if silver weakens more Gold would likely break bearish through the falling wedge.
- QQQ needs to confirm a hourly downtrend before we can have more confidence that the daily lower high is set. So far bulls played defense and we are still in a hourly uptrend.
BOIL Day Trade Recap and ReviewBOIL the 3x Leveraged ETF of natural gas futures has been highly volatile. Volatility yields high
profits if there are good entries and trade management. This past Friday BOIL was doing a
reverse split ( 20 shares become one) which I considered to be an opportunity for high profit
because a higher number of traders would have eyes on the chart.
The 15-minute chart is shown here with an anchored VWAP from 2 days earlier. At market open
price reversed a downtrend after the reverse split in the premarket. It got support from the line
one standard deviation below the mean VWAP. My first considered entry was the second green
HA candle in the reversal with a stop loss at the pivot low of the red candles. However
I passed on this entry and instead entered upon price crossing the mean VWAP. The entry
was supported by the indicators showing Z score and volatility. The entry was made more
precise by analysis on the 5-minute chart. The stop loss was set at the value of the close of the
last candle to close below VWAP. After that, trade management was routine. Every time
price went up 1% I raised the stop loss by the same amount until getting up 6% Once at that
level, I changed to a trailing stop loss of 2% so I could pay attention to other trading chores.
At the same time, I set an alert for when the price crossed to above two standard deviations
above the mean anchored VWAP. I did this because this is the overvalued overbought area
where institutional traders will set sell orders either short selling or closing profitable
trades. The resultant reversal would diminish my unrealized profits. In this case, I got
the alert and closed the position without the trailing loss. The trade resulted in a profit
of 12% without use of leverage or margin other than the leverage imbedded in BOIL inself.
Summer Heat expected to uptick energy demand-good for nat gasHot days mean more Air conditioning, which is good for natural gas since its 40% of electricity generation.
The Nat gas chart has been in a down trend since losing support in fall of 2022.
Will the chart turn directions? Currently its trying to begin higher highs.
BOIL / KOLD - a leveraged natural gas oscillatorHere on a dialy chart I have plotted the ratio of BOIL share price to that of KOLD, its leveraged
inverse. They both react to and reflect natural gas prices which are currently rising. I have also
plotted the supply demand indicator from Luxalgo and a better RSI indicator. As can be seen
on the chart the ratio ascended from relative weakness last fall into a long head and shoulder
pattern and then descended into its present range. The RSI bottomed abot 5/4/23 and
increasing since then. I see the present pattern as similar to what occurred last fall.
My thesis is that I should buy BOIL now as its price ascends until the ratio hits the supply
zone above and then flip by selling and buying KOLD instead. I see this as essentially a natural
gas buy and sell oscillator. To have more frequent trades and higher overall profits,
I would need to decrease the timeframe for the analysis down to 1-3 hours and follow
the ratio trending accordingly. At present, I will continue to accumulate further long positions
in BOIL