Tellurian: Weekly Bullish Engulfing Falling Wedge BreakoutTELL is currently breaking out of a Falling Wedge after confirming a Double Divergence in the MACD at the 0.886 and also Bullishly Diverging the previous week's candle. A break of the $1.55 level could quickly take it back to $6.5, as that will likely also align with the RSI entering back into the Bullish Control Zone.
Natural Gas
NATURAL GAS: Short term Sell opportunityNatural Gas got supported on the 4H MA50 yesterday but the rebound seems to be running out of steam. The R1 at 2.697 is so far a Double Top and as the 4H RSI is forming the same bearish pattern as in late May while the 1D technicals are losing strength (RSI = 59.608, MACD = 0.079, ADX = 32.120), we are shorting NG targeting the HL trendline (TP = 2.300).
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UNG continues to rise UNG the ETF that tracks natural gas futures has continued on a significant uptrend since June
1st The 2H chart suggests to be that the trend will continue this upcoming week. UNG is now
above the POC line of the long multi-session volume profile. UNG has had support from the
VWAP line representing two standard deviations below the mean. In recent days, price has
crossed that mean VWAP in a sign of bullish momentum. The volatility oscillator indicator
is showing bullish volatility while the RSI is high above 80 and staying there without any fade
to suggest bearish divergence. Overall, I will continue to run my position without any partial
take profit. My target is the VWAP line that is two standard deviations above the mean
anchored VWAP and so presently about 7.85. Any new trade would have the same target
while setting the stop loss just below the POC line.
Is KOLD getting chilled out ?KOLD's trend down may be continuing. They say weather climate conditions are for things
heating up. this trader concurs albeit from one of the traditional hottest places in the entire
USA and so with that bias come hell or bitter winter chill. On the chart, a persistent trend
down for KOLD underneath the Ichimoku cloud of the Luxalgo indicator is easily seen.
Luxalgo's Bollinger Band oscillator shows that price is riding down along the lower BB band
without any outlook for a reprive. Furthermore, price is well below the high volume
area of the volume profile and in the lowermost bands of the anchored VWAP. On the MACD
indicator, the MACD and signal are both trending down and well below zero.
In short, the value of KOLD is crashing down. Any traders long are best to consider liquidating
while any value remains. I am not long KOLD and happily continue my long positions in
BOIL, the inverse of it until analysis dictates otherwise.
NATGAS Bearish Correction! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS was trading in an
Uptrend but then hit a strong
Horizontal resistance of 2.683$
While trading in a bearish wedge
Pattern from where the
Price made a nice bearish
Breakout so I think that
Natgas will go down
Sell!
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NATURAL GAS Possible analysisThe NATURAL GAS trend is bearish for the last couple of months. The market placed a 1.9625 low on 14-Apr-2023. In a 4Hour time frame market reject the resistance area ( $2.35-2.42 ) as mentioned in the price chart and continued the bearish move. Now price is traded near the Support area ( $2.15-2.10 ).RSI ( relative strength index ) at over-sold levels and Volume indicates bears lose momentum. Price respected the trendline in the past two times and is now again near to test, so if the market close above this trendline with a strong bullish candle stick pattern then probably the market going up. So initiate long positions after closing above the Support area and also the trendline. On the other side, the Price traded below 200 MA (moving average ) which indicates the bearish trend is still in line. So Short selling is favorable if the price breaks the trendline to the downside and close below the support area as mentioned in the price chart after confirmation by a bearish price action structure.
Support and Resistance levels for day trading ;
Pivot Point Level: PP 2.1872
Support Levels: S1 2.0987, S2 2.0416, S3 1.9531
Resistance Levels: R1 2.2443, R2 2.3328, R3 2.3899
Bullish Setup in Range-bound MarketNatural gas has been moving within a range, and currently, we are at the lower part of the range.
We are patiently waiting for a shift in market structure (creating a HH). This would indicate a potential upward movement within the range.
Entry Point:
We plan to enter a trade on a pullback (LH) utilizing the (weekly FVG) with the trendline acting as a support.
Target:
Our target is set at the upper end of the range, with tp1 at 50% of the range.
NFA
Natural Gas: 1.618 Confluence Support Zone Has Held Natural Gas was trading at this Log/Linear 1.618 Confluence Zone for a while and even confirmed a 3 white soldiers pattern from the zone, but has since been very quiet. However, it's recently begun to bring us somewhat of a bounce and has confirmed a couple of higher lows with some hidden Bullish Divergence on the MACD after holding above the Bullish Control Zone on the RSI and now it's looking to make some higher highs and could take back the entire range.
It should also be noted that this 1.618 confluence zone is at the PCZ of a 1.13 Bullish Shark.
W&T Offshore: Holding Above Supply Line and SupportRight now WTI is breaking above the Supply Line of what looks to be some kind of Bump and Run Reversal Bottom at an Ice Line while forming somewhat of an Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern. If this level holds we could see it go for the next major level of support/resistance all the way up at $44.57
#NatGas #NG1! Update Natural Gas has followed my previous outlook by posting what seems to be a simple zigzag with ending diagonal in its final stages. From here we can expect a new wave up. Alternatively this correction can be complicated into ABC flat or WXY double zigzag. But tradingwise there is no reason to expect such further complication at this moment. I also expect oil rallying sharply and SP500 declining. May be we will see some hawkish remarks / developments sowing instability that sends energy prices up and stocks down. Speculation, of course. Not advice.
NatGas UpdateI believe the leading diagonal wave (a) has ended, and we are now in wave (b), which can take various forms (including the possibility that it has already ended). I suggested a few possible paths.
Once there is a pattern or a mature wave count in wave (b), I can make an assumption when exactly the next leg up will occur.
NATURAL GAS Buy signal unless this Higher Lows line breaks.Natural Gas (NG1!) is trading inside a Bullish Megaphone that has just priced its new Higher Low. The price is above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and has started the new leg to a Higher High. Before that however, it has several Resistance levels to overcome, namely the 2.690 Resistance and before that the Lower Highs trend-line. As a result we are buyers but set a target below that level at 2.550. If instead the price closes a 1D candle below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone, we will sell and target the 1.950 Support.
It is worth mentioning the 1D RSI that has been trading on Higher Lows since February 03, an early Bullish Divergence signal against the downtrend's Lower Lows for the price. This momentum continues to favor buying on the medium-term.
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Natural Gas Further DeclinesTraders are currently reducing natural gas losses, but the outlook for the summer is unimpressive, combined with technical factors, which suggests the possibility of further declines in the future.
Natural gas is trading on the weakside of $2.432 (R1), making it new resistance. Overcoming this level will indicate the return of buyers with $2.638 (R2) the next target.
A sustained move under $2.432 (R1) will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into $2.168 (Pivot), followed by $1.962 (S1)
S1 – $1.962 R1 – $2.432
S2 – $1.698 R2 – $2.638
S3 – $1.286 R3 – $2.902
Bearish Weather Continues
The current weather patterns are unfavorable for natural gas prices, as systems in the southern US are preventing widespread high temperatures. This bearish weather is expected to continue until hotter patterns arrive, which is projected to be around June 6-10.
Although natural gas prices are increasing on Wednesday, it is not being influenced by the weather. During the May 24-30 period, the US will experience active weather systems with showers, thunderstorms, and temperatures ranging from the 60s to 80s, except for hotter conditions in the Southwest deserts and South Texas reaching the 90s. The Great Lakes and Northeast regions will have cooler-than-normal temperatures, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 30s and 40s. This may result in a slight increase in heating demand.
Canadian Gas Exports to U.S. Normalize
Canadian natural gas exports to the United States have returned to normal levels following disruptions caused by wildfires in Alberta and other western provinces. This has led to a significant drop in U.S. gas futures, as Canada supplies around 8% of the gas consumed or exported by the U.S. In the past weeks, gas flows from Canada averaged 7.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), lower than the year’s average of 8.3 bcfd.
However, the amount of gas exported from Canada to the U.S. is expected to remain near a three-week high of 8.1 bcfd. The wildfires had forced Canadian producers to cut exports to a low of 6.4 bcfd. Overall, the return to normal gas flows from Canada has impacted gas prices and market dynamics in the U.S.
Supply Dynamics
Gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states reached 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, surpassing April’s record of 101.4 bcfd. Additionally, gas exports from Canada to the United States were expected to rise to 8.2 bcfd, a near three-week high.
Demand Dynamics
Despite predictions of slightly increased gas demand in the next two weeks, particularly due to low wind power generation, gas futures still experienced a decline. The proportion of U.S. power generated by wind dropped to 7% compared to the previous week’s high of 17%. This decline in wind power led to an increase in gas consumption for electricity generation, particularly in Texas.
In the short term, the outlook for natural gas is bearish. The decrease in wind power generation has resulted in higher gas usage for electricity production, reducing the available supply for storage. Meteorologists project mostly normal weather conditions in the Lower 48 states, except for some colder-than-normal days from May 24-28. Refinitiv forecasts a slight decrease in U.S. gas demand, including exports, from 90.4 bcfd to 89.8 bcfd next week, with revised higher forecasts compared to the previous day’s outlook. These factors contribute to the bearish sentiment in the market.
NATURAL GAS Possible Long analysisThe NATURAL GAS trend is bearish for the last couple of months. The market placed a 1.9625 low on 22-Feb-2023. In a 4Hour time frame market reject the resistance area ( $2.54-2.61 ) as mentioned in the price chart and continued the bearish move. Now price is traded near the Support area ( $2.31-2.24 ). Volume indicates bears lose momentum. Price respect the Trendline in the past two times and now again near to test. Price also traded above the 200 MA ( moving average ) which indicates a bullish trend. So initiate long positions after closing above the Support area and also the trendline. On the other side, Short selling is favorable near the resistance area as mentioned above in the price chart after confirmation by a bearish price action structure.
Support and Resistance levels for day trading ;
Pivot Point Level: PP 2.3776
Support Levels: S1 2.3137, S2 2.2684, S3 2.2045
Resistance Levels: R1 2.4229, R2 2.4868, R3 2.5321