BOIL UPDATE LONGTERMOn the daily chart, BOIL price has never been lower and the relative volume has never
been higher in the past five years. Being mindful, this is leveraged it falls faster than an
the unleveraged counterpart of the same commodity ( UNG INL) However moves in the
opposite directions are also amplified. Horizontal red lines are drawn in consideration
of pivots on the 4H. Price was nearly $600 in 2019. Can you think of a fundamental
reason why price cannot rise from the present price to something closer to that
of 2019. To go from $4 to $600 is 150X in otherwords 15000%. Is there anything
wrong with my math or the chart?
Natural Gas
NATURAL GAS Confirmed our long-term view, now turning sideways.Those who follow us for long, know that we tend to utilize long-term patterns, especially cyclical pattern that give a high probability of return as they filter out the day-to-day noise from the news. Natural Gas (NG1!) is no exception and our multi-year Cycles analysis last January proves that:
As the price continued to free-fall, we now find it useful to better explain the situation to you, to turn back to the 1D time-frame and compare the 2022/23 Cycle to 2014/15. As you see the correlation is fairly high. Both started on a 1D Death Cross, with the 1D RSI deeply overbought. As the price never broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since December 20 2022, it appears that we are in a similar level as February 2015 when after a test of the first Support Zone (green), the price rebounded, got rejected on the 1D MA50 and then turned sideways to break it.
It stayed neutral for basically 6 months before starting a new multi-month round of heavy selling. The signal to sell it again was when the price was at its closest to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The downside potential is significant and goes lower than the previous Low of 1.450, which is our long-term target.
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Recap of my trade for today on CL1!
Good morning and good afternoon dear traders!
Today's trade on CRUDE OIL was quick since we got an early squeeze on the chart and we closed to take our profit on this market, we're still holding our positions on NATURALGAS and ZB1!.
For any questions or markets to analyze leave a comment below!
Recap of my trade for today on ZB1!Good afternoon and good evening dear traders!
At the morning I shared a post where I said to sell ZB1!, it's too late but you still have made some profits if you got in early. For my clients and I it was a good day in ZB1! and NATURAL GAS, we could make some good profits on the 4% drop of the NATURAL GAS and on the 1% of the ZB1!, I didn't share the NATURAL GAS one since I already posted the ZB1! one and I can't give the trades I give privately.
See you tomorrow on another forerecast!
If you got any question don't hesitate to ask!
SELL ZB1!Good morning dear traders!
I'm sharing with you one of my trades for today as I usually do.
I managed to share with you the TREASURY BONDS one, as you can see on the chart the price broke the channel for the fist time as a fake breakout, the 2nd time it did the same thing but it managed to come back down ad give us the confirmation to sell, my customers and I got in an hour ago, now since the market is on the move I shared it with you since I can't share them to pu lic at the same time I give it to my customers whom pay for signals.
TP and SL set them at your own risk
If you got any questions don't hesitate to ask I'll answer with pleasure
Natural Gas - Bigger correction in this area?Hello traders,
Today we will do an analysis for NATGAS. This commodity is in a big downtrend on the daily and weekly timeframe that started in August 2022. For now the higher probability move is a bigger correction in this area. On the 4h timeframe we expect the price to move to the upside and break the previous local high that it made on the 3rd of March. Once it reaches the area of the magenta rectangle marked on the chart we must see if we will have a continuation to the downside or it will continue making a bigger correction (upside).
Another possible scenario is a move to the downside that coincides with the 70,5% Fibonacci retracement and then a move to the upside to break the local high.
Please don't jump in, wait for your setups, no matter what, and don't risk more than 1% of your capital.
UNG - Natural Gas ETF - Potential Double Bottom Support PlayUNG (US Natural Gas ETF) has formed a double-bottom price pattern on the Daily chart.
The Price has found temporary support above $8.21.
Support Price Targets are: $8.21, $8.16, $7.72, $6.11.
Resistance Price Targets are: $8.99, $9.93, $10.97, $11.97.
UNG etf does not always correlate & follow technical analysis charts.
Be aware of global fundamental news changes regarding energy assets (government policies, corporate policies, supply & demand, etc).
Mar 18,23-NG-Turnaround this week? YES!As we know, NG has stayed down and storage is at an all time high - U.K. NG is at an 18 month low. Weather has been exceptionally warm in the U.S. the last 8 weeks, hence the huge amount in storage.
My thinking is the following:
There is a quick cold snap this week where it will start to warm up again on Fri,,,
It's almost the end of this contract...most of the time, price moves up as contract end nears - not always, but a lot of the time.
Where is the bottom? I believe in and around 2 is the bottom. It's going to be hard for price to STAY below 2 for long. Sure, it might dip down to 1.5 for a day or two, then right back up again around 2.
Therefore, I am choosing 2 or maybe 1.9 or 1.8 as a good spot to go long - even if it's just until friday this week, then get out. Hopefully price goes up to 2.5 and I take my 500 or so points profit and run.
I might be wrong, but that's how I'm going to play this week. I will be watching price action closely Sun night as NG comes online. If price is flat or turns negative slightly, I will lower my entry price to 1.9 or 1.8.
Stay tuned this week for more posts. Stay safe and trade smart.
Heiko
Natural Gas Full Bear Control. Short term 15m EMA 12 Guide- NG UNG is on a downtrend in every time frame, bears are in full control.
- Bulls would hope we hold the 52 week low
- need an hourly trend change back to the bulls for we to potentially get a 4h and daily bounce going and shape up an Equilibrium pattern.
- short term intra-day 15m 12 EMA is our guide for full bear control.
- I definitely wouldn't be shorting all the way down here but also there's no signs for me to be interested long as well atm unless bulls can start to shape up some hourly trend change.
Natural gas is almost done consolidating On the 4th hour chart , natural gas looks to be forming a minor bullish divergence on the MACD. It has also formed a falling wedge , which has a higher probability of breaking to the upside. The current sell off was obvious when natural gas rallied to the upper trend line and couldn't break it. A move to the lower trendline is almost finished , a grind lower to tag it is very possible , and a move to 2.22 is not to be ruled out. The zone that natural gas has entered will , in my opinion, yield a reaction very soon.
Natural Gas Demand When a 6 months demand zone is identified at a particular price level, it suggests that the price of the asset (Natural Gas in this case) has previously bounced back from that level after a prolonged period of demand for the asset. This means that during that period, there were more buyers than sellers, resulting in an increase in demand for the asset and causing the price to rise.
If the price were to reach that level again, where the current price is at this time (Demand Zone), there is a high probability that it may turn back up from that level as buyers would be expected to come into the market again, causing an increase in demand for the asset. As a result, some traders may use this information to enter a long position in the asset when the price reaches this level with the expectation that the price may rise again from this point.
However, it is important to note that while demand zones can provide useful information to traders, they are not foolproof indicators and can be subject to market fluctuations and changes in supply and demand dynamics. Therefore, traders should always exercise proper risk management techniques and use other technical and fundamental analysis tools to confirm their trading decisions.
#trillions💱
SELL CL1!Good morning CRUDE OIL traders!
I'm sharing with you again my trade on CRUDE OIL this morning, as you can see on the chart there's a breakout of the channel the price was consolidating at all the past hours.
TP and SL set them at your own risk.
In case you got any question don't hesitate to ask!
$UNG to sub $2? I know this would be a crazy move and I have no clue what would cause it, but the chart says that this is a possibility.
As you can see, the chart has formed a H&S pattern and is breaking down. If you take the length of the pattern and extend it down past the breakdown, you get a price target of sub $2. Maybe this is a move that plays out like oil did in 2020?
$NG $UNG $BOIL Where Price would be for the Next couple weeks- UNG NG BOIL have retraced over 50% fib of the A to B move from the bottom, that's a clear sign that we will likely get an equilibrium base on how significant these swings are.
- NG has a tendency to break a resistance and have no follow through vice versa breaking a support and have no follow through so im looking for a equilibrium tightening up price action the next couple weeks.
- Short term bears still in full control
Mar 9,22-NG-Pullback is here-TurnaroundAs I said in my last post, price dropped this week. Question is, with the jobs report tomorrow, will price plummet? Or Rebound?
THis is the question I am battling with. I will be watching closely and if price continues to fall overnight and into the moments leading up to the report, I might put in a Buy ORder in case price sky rockets.
We shall see. As for next week, will price go back up to 3ish? Or will price just go sideways for a while. Hard to say, especially because there appears to be no end in sight for the War.
Stay tuned.
Heiko
Pullback to 2.582 before another bull runNG likely to pullback to this support area highlighted at 2.582 before pushing off to another bull run. This area was previously the area of consolidation as well. This pullback seems to be short term corrective.
NATGAS Long- Used SFP & Breaker Order Block, with confluence SFP at the Monday low on 12H, 4H, and 1H
- MSB to the upside on the 30m buying retest of Breaker Order Block
- TP1 will be Monday's high, will reassess there but there's a possibility of filling the gap at ~2.93 and could hit 1D FVG at ~3.05