Natural gas retrace to 5$My pervious short thesis turned out to be right. The price dropped basically on political brute-force and I believe it still has another one leg up.
A calculated long position with a stop loss worth's the risk. I am going for a long position and will close below the major obvious resistance
Natural Gas
Long on Natural Gas Natural Gas has been hammered over the last couple of weeks and It's about time it took a turn to fill in the gaps; beginning with the most recent one yet to be filled.
Strong positive RSI divergence on the daily, alongside oversold hourly, weekly and monthly RSI.
It's still freezing cold with many winter storms across the USA so I can't see Natural Gas being sold for much longer.
What are your thoughts?
Natural Gas Analysis and ForecastBearish pressure is expected to persist in the coming days or week due to increased natural gas production following a June explosion that shut down a Texas LNG facility. The facility is expected to take at least two weeks to become operational again, but bullish pressure may return once it does as well as if winter conditions return in late January or early February. If the 3.500 level is broken, prices may increase to the range of 4.500-5.000 before a possible drop again. NYMEX:NG1!
Jan 24,23-NG-Almost time to go longAs I mentioned in my post, 2 posts ago, I expect price to settle around 3. We had a little spike up in price but then it came right back down and now is under 3.2
So I will be watching closely to get in at 3.2, preferably lower if price goes lower. Every 100 points I will move my Buy Order lower to keep in step with the price lowering.
Currently I'm in for a Buy Order at 3.2
Price might not go up too much or at all until next week. Watch out for the weekend Gap Ups or Gap Down from the 'Big Boys'...
I expect I my order will get filled before end of day Friday.
Take care and stay safe all.
Heiko
Bull Play on Natural GasNatural Gas entered oversold area on the weekly chart yesterday. Historically, it doesn't happen often but, when it does, an eventual bounce always follows. HNU, which tracks, currency.com Natural Gas futures, has completed a bullish MACD cross despite recent drop. Nat Gas MACD, likewise, is showing a bullish divergence vs price.
Jan 23,23-NG-Gap up and away we goWell, looks like the big boys gapped the price up from the weekend and away we go.
Will price stay up this week or fall back down to the 3-3.2 level....good question. Colder weather? War?
Trade safe and keep an eye on your trades...price action can change at any time.
Heiko
Natural Gas: Long-term viewGreetings!
Was keeping an eye on NATGAS and I saw the price forming an ending structure inside a channel. The price is in a big downtrend for a while now, but I am expecting the price to give us some green signs soon.
We may drop a bit more towards an important Daily demand area which will also act as a stop hunt move from the big boys. In this regard, I will be focusing on the buys instead of sells.
I am expecting the price to reach that area and then reverse. If we start going up and we get a breakout followed by a pullback, I am anticipating a high chance of moving up, at least for a correction in the bigger scale.
My first area to watch if we start going up is the first 4H supply zone highlighted on the chart.
Trade safe.
EWT – Is Natural Gas Prepared for a Reversal?In our previous article, we discussed impulsive wave C and its continuation. On 20 January 2023 , Price achieved our all given targets.
Click here -
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Timeframe :
MCX Natural gas has accomplished the corrective wave B and started falling for impulsive wave C. Price has given a reversal from previous wave C, but it is no conclusive evidence that it has completed wave c.
When it comes to confirmation, Traders should watch the level of 313 . If the price breaks out the 313 , it will enter into the parallel channel. Traders can buy for the following targets: 321 – 340 – 366 .
Don’t forget prices are moving outside the channel, which is a negative point for traders. Bearish continuation is possible if the price sustains below wave (4).
I will update further information soon.
NATURAL GAS Astounding multi-year Cycles showing sell's not overThis is not the first time we look into Natural Gas (NG1!) and its long-term patterns. We have coined its Multi-year Cycles Theory in the past and it is time to extend on it a little on the 1W time-frame.
Typically investors ask us for 1D analysis such as the following we published 2 months ago (November 24 2022) and helped us identify the conditions that would fulfil the long-term bearish reversal we expected:
As you see NG delivered the expected drop since it closed below its 1W MA100 and even hit and closed below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Based on this multi-decade blueprint, this is a strong bearish continuation signal. As the chart shows, NG technically makes 4 year Cycles (bottom-to-bottom, top-to-top), which failed only one time in 30 years. Based on this, there is still significant time and range for the price to drop.
The first stop is the (grey) High Volatility Zone, where the price typically trades for a longer-than-usual period of time. We need to keep an eye on the RSI on the 1M time-frame and its Higher Lows trend-line. If its holds, expect a bounce, in a similar fashion as the Lower Highs from May 2009 to February 2016. If they break, we expect first the 1.600 level to be tested as a Support and potentially under conditions (which we will analyze extensively if this time comes), the prices Lower Lows trend-line.
Keep in mind that the RSI is always helpful and in recent months in particular, as its Bearish Divergence on Lower Highs (against the price's Higher Highs) from September 2021 to August 2022 projected the peak.
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Jan 21,23-NG-Price will settle around 3As you can see from the chart, somewhere between 2.8 and 3 is where the outside Linear Regression line is and that is where price will probably stabalize for the next while, until some force pushes price up....either weather, the War, Politics or some combination of all 3.
Keep a close eye as 3 is a Support level. Weather is supposed to turn colder also, however, storage is pretty full, so I'm guesing until the EIA report shows a significant drop is reserves, or if the cold snap turns into a 4 week cold spell, price won't move too much.
Heiko
SWN Southwestern Energy. The Best Play on US Natural Gas ExportsI've held this investment for over a year now. Average price is around 5.8. It has not done anything in terms of stock price but the company's financials improved big time and they are bringing in massive free cash flow. In the next couple years they pay down their debt and get a big pop next time Natural Gas has good times. I feel good in it still think it's cheap and that the market just doesn't know it yet. The last year has been a hard times for stocks too. Target for SWN is at least $14
Long Natural Gas based on temperature decrease in USFundamental:
15.01.23
Weather reports point to the possibility of a further drop in gas prices amid forecasts indicating the likelihood of unusually mild temperatures in the United States through mid-January, Gelber's note said.
16.01.23
After consecutive weekly declines at the start of the new year, natural gas futures rebounded on Tuesday amid expectations of more cold spells later this month.
The spot price fell about 27.6 cents on Friday after several days of unusually warm weather to start 2023. Production also proved strong and stood at around 101 billion cubic feet per day. It remained near record levels of around 102 billion cubic feet per day.
However, natural gas prices are more than 50% lower than they were just a month ago, and for futures contracts to maintain an upward trajectory, cold air needs to arrive soon and other February predictions may need to be made.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's eight-to-14-day forecast calls for below-average temperatures in the western, midwestern and southwestern parts of the lower 48 states.
18.01.23
US gas prices are rising today (knowing that volumes are limited due to MLK Day), while European prices are falling sharply. There are new weather forecasts for the last week of January in the United States. Temperatures are expected to drop significantly across most of the United States, to below average levels. It turns out that February could bring more volatility for natural gas. Seasonality indicates two local troughs (cold winds) - January 21 and February 4.
"Looking ahead, it's not out of the question that NYMEX gas futures will return to $5 mmBtu or higher, but it will take a lot of arctic air to dominate the nation for several weeks," adds Gelber's note. "Conversely, if the weather forecast models revert to a longer spell of warmth, this would set the stage for new lows for NYMEX gas futures."
Technical:
- RSI over 30.0 + Standard deviation increasing (high volatility)
- High volume at $3.54
- Support reached
Natural Gas Chart looking interestingIt is safe to say that NG has been bleed out recently, and is looking very oversold. I am watching closely here for a long position. Momentum looks like it may shift bullish soon.
Butterfly Still in Play for Natural Gas NG!Butterfly still in play
1) XB should be 0.786. Here we have 0.794 so I would accept it. Tick
2) AC should range between 0.392 to 0.886. Here it is 0.774. Tick
3) BD should range between 1.618 and 2.618. Here it is 2.128 . Not complete yet but Trending!
4) XB should range between 1.27 and 1.618. Here it is 1.493. Not complete yet but Trending!
Let's see what the price action does. I believe a reversal is due now to the upside.
Note: XB to 1.618 would be at the price of 3. So still downside risk.
Jan 15,23-NG-Will it get back down to 3So NG started this week off with a Gap Up, not huge but still up.
Question is....will it stay up and gain or is it going to get back to the 3 mark. 3 would put it at the bottom of the Linnear Regression Indicator as you can see on the chart.
I'm going to hold off on any trade until I'm sure price action is going to keep going up (as sure as I can be anyway).
I'm still thinking price will end this week down, if not to 3 then to 3.2 - then I might consider putting in a Buy Order.
Thoughts?
Heiko