XNGUSD - NGAS NEXT WEEK MOVEGas this week had a strong bullish movement, and I expect it to complete this movement next week, with a correction that may target 6.40 levels, from which it may launch towards 7.0 levels.The gas has been in an ascending channel for 11 days, but will it breach it and rise towards the 7.0 levels? We wait next week to see what it has in store.
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Natural Gas
NGAS: Will Demand for Natural Gas Increase With Climate Change?Natural Gas's all-time price action/chart suggest that it is due for a sizeable, generational bull run, to start within the next 3 years. One could blame it on war or climate change or politics but I am not smart enough to determine which may be the actual cause, if any. I can instead deduct from NGAS' wavemap that we are unlikely to enjoy the low prices we've seen during the early 90s or at late as Spring 2020.
I've never looked at an inflation chart or have been able to determine what's next for us in that regard but I think this commodity alone can give us some decent expectations. What happens if/when it costs 20x more to keep your home cool in the summer (or warm in the winter)?
With an extended diagonal wave in primary Wave 1 of NGAS, we can expect that primary Wave 3 will be likely extended beyond the 1.618 level. We cannot say that this will occur for sure but it is as likely as it ever is. After finding possible support below $5 in 2024, this commodity could make citizens want to hit the rewind button irl. By 2037-2040, Natural Gas could and should be more than the price of Oil.
At this point and time, I genuinely believe that NGAS will go 40X within the next 15 years. This is indication that I've found through continued analysis of price action. I have no reason to doubt this perspective but am well aware that it could be invalidated upon any given day. For continued analysis of this worldwide commodity and help with taking advantage of a possibly upcoming generational swings, come surf with me and the Digital Surf Trading Community.
NATURALGAS - Fill the gap ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my analysis on NATURALGAS .
Here we are bullish from H4 timeframe perspective, so I am looking for longs. I expect price to fill that gap above and the to make a retracement to look for a long from trendline.
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Norwegian pennystock Flex LNG (Natural gas transportation)Table of contents:
§ 1 About FLNG
§ 2 The market
§ 3 Why I am bullish
§ 4 The risks
§ 1
Flex LNG(FLNG) is a Norwegian company.
They specialize in transporting liquid natural gas around the world for heat, cooking etc.
They also create ships themselves, specially created within the CE regulations to ensure safe transport, as natural gas is highly flammable and explosive (who would have figured that one out...)
Now, FLNG has done something that might be incredibly smart or it might be incredibly stupid depending on which way things goes:
Most companies transporting gas and oil get a fixed rate on the transport, however FLNG has made it so they get paid based on the spot price of natural gas (futures are called NG1! if you want to see the price)
This means if the price of natural gas goes up, so does their revenues, which also creates an interesting scenario for us as I will explain in more details in § 3.
§ 2
FLNG's market is mostly based in China and India (~2 billion people) which in latest years have used a lot of coal for heating, the problem with burning coal is that it's very harmful to the environment, it releases a lot of CO2 and last but not least it releases microscopic particles in the air increasing cases of astma and COPD (Chronic Obstructing Pulmonary Disease) which I don't have to tell you - is reall bad.
Now both China and India needs to move over to a more environmental friendly source of energy and heat, this is where natural gas comes in.
When you burn natural gas, you only get CO2 and water as a biproduct, which is still bad for global warming, but does not increase cases of COPD or astma.
§ 3
I am bullish when it comes to FLNG as I believe it will be ranging a lot based on time of year, as we can see when it comes to natural gas spot prices, this can make it a lot easier to predict price movements, as price has historically been highest in the winter (because it's cold and people need more heating, again, who would have figured...), and lower in the summer as very few people need heat in the summer.
I also think that because the market is so huge with at least 2 billion people I think there is a LOT of room for expansion.
§ 4
Although I believe this is an up and coming industry that will be huge the coming years, there is no guarantee that FLNG will be the leaders in the market, but seeing as Norway historically have been one of the leading ship builders and also leading within oil technology I strongly believe flex have a high potential. However, if it does not reach a 50-100% increase within February, it will likely not happen this year as spot prices will be on their way down again.
Another risk is market turbulence which might hurt FLNGs price.
To end it off with a little bit of my techincal analysis:
Price bounced from the 80NOK mark (~$10) where it has not been since it's true pennystock days where liquidity was scarce. Price was trending downwards after the winter just like NG prices have too. I believe the 80NOK level will hold because a lot of bigger institutions bought in at 120NOK and I believe they will either look to average down around the 80NOK mark to get their average to 100NOK to lower their overall downside.
And as we are smarter than the institutions (not really) I came up with an idea on how to spot more accurately when price is likely to explode (thank me later):
Look at weather forcast for the most populated areas in China and India, when temperatures start dropping it's probably time to buy either FLEX or NG futures.
Thank you all for reading and have a great rest of your day.
Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): Technical Outlook 💨
A lot of questions about Natural Gas.
Here is my detailed technical outlook.
2 weeks ago, the market reached a key daily structure support and nicely bounced from that.
Zooming in the chart and analyzing a price action, we may spot an ascending triangle formation - a classic bullish accumulation pattern.
The price sets higher lows, respecting 6.2 - 6.6 horizontal resistance.
I believe that the next bullish move will initiate after a bullish breakout of the underlined structure (we need a daily candle close above that to confirm the breakout).
A bullish continuation will be expected to 7.076 then.
Alternatively, a bearish breakout of a trend line may push the market to a current low.
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NATURAL GAS: I'M WAITING NEXT SPRINGHi guys,
as you can see on my NatGas analyses, for now i'm bearish but this doesn't mean i'm short on price.
I'm just watching and waitinig for a good entry point to long NatGas, and now seems obvious we were in a big channel that now is broken.
So what's next?
Maybe we will see a retest of support in these weeks and then a big fall, since all EU country have big reserve for this winter.
Next year will be more different.
Let's see.
Natural GasWednesday, 2 November 2022
01:36 AM (WIB)
Natural Gas prices have been exiting from the Falling Wedge structure and falling from the Ascending Uptrend Channel.
It falls started from the Head & Shoulder Formation at the previous top of resistance.
The market looks so aggressive until the price falls from the ascending channel.
Where is the direction of this market now?
Why do they sell off until they break out from the Ascending trendlines?
So, they don’t care at all about the structure market.
Considering MACD and Stochastic RSI performance, there is still a possibility for the price to move to $4.5 but I prefer to buy at $5.3.
I see good bullish development from $6.5 to $5.3
NATURAL GAS NATGAS Technical analysisSee Chart For Analysis.
Higher Timeframe:
-Price inside weekly demand
-Trend = uptrend
-Looking for longs
Lower Timeframe:
-4hr over-extended market broke 3x DBD in a row.
-Price making HH/HL on 4hr timeframe.
-Price shows both ML break + opposing zones removed + quality zones
Options:
1) buy inside 4hr demand
2) look for 5min/15min buys with confirmation once price enters 4hr demands.
Oct 31,22-NG Working on more 700 pt profitsNG is going back up my friends - as you saw last week I profited from 2 of my 4 trades at 700pts each - NICE!
This week I'm hoping for price to close out above 7. My trade at 6 I'm looking for taking my profits at 6.7 for another 700 pt profit. Then I will only have my last original Buy Order at 7.
Stay safe and have a great week.
Heiko
Natural Gas....Short- already in a overbought levels
- gap to be filled down
- delta bearish divergence
- loss of momentum
Oct 27,22-NG Winner AGAIN-700 pt profitThis week is a good week!! Last night I closed out my 5.5 Buy Order for another 700 point profit (officially 695 point profit) to close at 6.2 (officially 6.195).
Next up is my Buy Order at 6 which currently is in profit territory. The storage report is today so we shall see what happens. I might get out of my position with a small profit. Not sure. Then there is still my Buy Order at 7, where I was a little early (ok a LOT early) with my bullish prediction.
Should be an interesting finish to this year. Stay safe all and trade smart.
Heiko
Taf's Gun to the HeadTrade Idea : Sell Nat Gas at market
Reasoning : Had a hanging man yesterday and looking for a correction of the recent bullish move. Potenial double top on an intraday basis as well adds to confluence.
Entry:6.155
TP:5.835
SL:6.279
RR: 2.58
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Oct 26,22-NG Winner-700 points profit!NICE - So I just closed out my Buy Order from 5 and closed it out at 5.7 for a nice 700 point profit!!
Now I'll wait till price action rises into the 6's to close out my 5.5 Buy Order.
Congrats to all who followed my hunches :-) Enjoy your profits!
Stay Safe all.
Heiko
NATURAL GAS - NatGas - shortAs said before the "pausa" for Pull Back .. this is not an easy trade.
All the world think about an increase of energetics price for the winter but based on technical point in this moment we cannot confirm that.
The pull back .. until this moment was really short.. without "energy" .. and arrived only to 0,38 of thirt wave.. this let me to think that probably the short momentum is not completed.
Before I wrote and now confirm that:
1) COT report say that non commercial are short (with increase)
2) Europe has completed the "stock" for this winter
3) Europe has created a big plan to reduce the electricity consumption
4) USA has a short possibilities for increase the natural gas export at least for the next one mounths
5) The petroil cost are decrease and could be more convenient that GAS
---
From TA we have still on going the big H&S and a little bit H&S in this last movement.. so all this with technical wave analysis suggest a short continuation ...
Stop Over the 7,2$
Trade safe.. always
Oct 26,22-NG-Nice Profits from yesterdays rallyMy Buy Order at 5 is in decent profits today after yesterdays bullish run. Price action sits around my next Buy Order at 5.5 today.
I will continue to monitor price action as there will be ups and down from now till Feb. I will close my Buy Orders at 700-800 point profits along the way to lock in my profits.
Stay safe.
Heiko
Oct 25,22-NG-FINALLY price is going up :-)In looking at the chart, you can see how price dropped quite a bit outside the Linear Regression Indicator but price is on it's way back up.
Yesterday was the first day in a long time of positive gains, hopefully going to finish the week off in green territory.
As previously discussed, I put another Buy Order in at 5, which is now in profit so that's good. Just waiting for price to continue skyrocketing.
FYI - price will probably NOT skyrocket up to 10 or anything, but will very slowly make it's way up there over the winter. So this could be a 4 month grind, so get your Big Boy Pants on and strap in for a crazy ride - between the War, Recession, Sky high interest rates and Bankruptcies (more to come over the next 6-12 months) it's going to be a crazy 2023!!
Stay safe!
Heiko
Too fast, too furious for Natural Gas?After a sharp drop in August, Natural Gas futures is now sitting close to the long-term uptrend support which has marked key reversal points since June 2020. Our question is whether prices have fallen too fast and too soon?
We question “too furious” when we look at the RSI which currently points to oversold levels. Hitting a low close to 24, the last time RSI reached such an oversold level, in February 2017, prices rallied close to 35% over the next 2 months. We also note the formation of RSI divergence now, like the one we observed during the 2017 period. If history is any guide, from a technical perspective we can expect some upside for Natural Gas in the coming 2 months.
We question “too fast” as we are at the dawn of the seasonality trade. With demand for Natural gas used for heating generally rising as winter months are approaching, we can reflect on the seasonality behavior of Natural Gas prices over the past winters. A simple strategy of buying in the middle of October and waiting for the winter months gives a 70% win-rate when we look back at the past 10 years. Could we expect the same this winter?
On top of these, we think there are a few structural factors that might boost natural gas demand in the US over a longer-term horizon.
1) The recent announcement by the Biden administration that ruled out a ban or curbs on natural gas exports this winter, and Europe’s struggle with the energy crisis spell good news for Natural Gas’s demand.
2) Current Natural gas storage levels are also below the 5-year average as reported by the US EIA .
3) A move away from coal as agreed in the COP26 means alternative energy sources are bound to replace coal. With many coal-powered plants being refurbished to work with natural gas, we see structural demand rising as more of these plants come online.
Natural gas’s current technical levels point oversold to us, with the seasonality trade potentially on the cards and an overall supportive macro backdrop, we lean bullish on Natural gas. As Natural Gas is considered a highly volatile contract, we can use the Average True Range (ATR) to set our stops. In this case, we follow the rule of thumb to multiply the ART by 2, which sets our stop at roughly 4.550.
Entry at 5.200, stop at 4.550. Target at 6.400.
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Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
NATGAS Supply And Demand LONG AnalysisHigher Timeframe:
-Price inside HTF weekly demand
-Look for buys
Lower Timeframe:
-4hr timeframe overextended with 6x DBD in a row.
-Wait for aggressive downward trend line break + strong quality zone to be created
-looking to either buy the demand is price pulls back or use as my highertimeframe and then look for new lowertimeframe
confirmation.
Natural Gas, maybe the last long swing tradingnatural gas is risky and high volatile. A simply backtest on seasonality over the last years is not sufficient. But I note now an interesting technical convergence to a dynamic support since 2020 and Fibonacci Level (0.618) retracement of this last uptrend. Maybe it could be the last long swing trading if chart will confirm that