Natural Gas
Natural gas is the downtrend resuming? Nat gas still fits all the criteria for a large downtrend.
Lower highs & Lower lows are still in place on the weekly timeframe.
This obviously swings probabilities in favour of lower price.
However historically were still at some oversold levels.
Just because this asset is oversold honest mean it can't go lower.
Im watching the daily 50MA & 200MA closely...do we get the death cross formation to occur again?
Usually this signal provides a near term bounce but medium term decline.
Natural Gas: Do or Die!We secured half of our profits yesterday, however I still think we have a very good chance of higher price.
Nat gas needs to make a decision by getting above this key Covid trend line.
We are observing another "death cross" formation developing. If price action keeps rejecting the daily 200MA we may go lower.
Today inventories came out: consensus was 42B actual -6B
This was a dramatic forecast miss & supports higher price / more demand.
If Nat gas can get above this key covid trend line, we are well on our way to $3+
NATGAS Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS shot up sharply
Just as I predicted but
Has now hit a horizontal
Resistance of 2.273$ and
As we are already seeing
A bearish reaction a
Further correction is
To be expected
Sell!
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Weekend Russia-Ukraine Update for Natural Gas Traders in FX MarkHey everyone,
I wanted to share some important updates with you regarding recent developments that could significantly impact our natural gas trades. In the past few days, Ukraine's attack on the Sudzha gas transfer station in Russia's Kursk region has raised some serious concerns. As you know, the Sudzha station is a critical point for gas flow from Russia to Europe, and any disruption here could directly affect our natural gas trading. It's something we all need to keep a close eye on.
To give you some context, Gazprom supplied approximately 14.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas through Sudzha in 2023. This volume accounts for about 4.5% of the EU's annual consumption and nearly half of all Russian gas exports to Europe. Since the beginning of the year, the daily gas flow through this station has remained above 40 million cubic meters. These numbers highlight just how vital Sudzha is for European gas supply.
The main function of the Sudzha gas metering station is to record gas consumption and measure the quality indicators of the gas. The gas flow is measured using two primary methods: variable pressure drop and the more precise ultrasonic method, which measures the propagation speed of ultrasonic waves in the gas flow. The station is equipped with converters, pressure and temperature sensors, shut-off valves, and other equipment essential for accurate gas flow measurement.
In addition, the station features an automated control system that collects, processes, and transmits data on gas parameters. This system is responsible for overseeing the operation process and maintaining accurate records. If there’s an issue at the station, not only would the gas flow be disrupted, but tracking the quality and quantity of the gas would also become much more difficult.
Given these details, it’s crucial for us to closely monitor what's happening in the gas markets and adjust our strategies accordingly. As uncertainty increases, so do the potential risks and opportunities, so I strongly advise you to carefully set your stops in your trades.
Wishing you all a profitable week ahead!
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS FOREXCOM:NATURALGAS
Natural Gas...bullish turnaround!Nat gas has carved out a nice potential base to move higher.
We have seen a failed breakdown whcih usualkly indicates a bullish reversal.
They say the biggest moves come from failed patterns an it certainly looks like a failed bearish trendline break.
If this is the case, Nat gas has a nice 15-20% upside before things get really interesting.
We may be witnessing a weekly inverse head & shouldrs pattern developing.
Time will tell but we are long.
NATURAL GAS Expecting a dead-cat-bounce. Get ready to sell it.Natural Gas (NG1!) has been trading within a long-term Falling Wedge pattern since the April 2023 Low, with its latest Lower High coming right at the top of June 11 2024.
With a short-term bullish divergence on the 1D RSI, we expect to see a 'dead-cat-bounce' in August, which even though it might get as high as the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level to price yet another Lower High, an acceptable level to get a sell entry again, would be the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Our Target is 1.400, which would be the -0.5 Fibonacci extension (where the February 20 2024 Lower Low was priced), even though the Wedge's technical Lower Low extends as low as 1.200.
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The Price of Natural Gas Finds Support. But for How Long?The Price of Natural Gas Finds Support. But for How Long?
On 21 June, we wrote that the trend in the market was weakening, noting that:
→ Forecasts of a hotter summer, published during April-May, led to a sustained bullish trend in the natural gas market.
→ According to the technical analysis of the 4-hour XNG/USD chart and the signs of weakness that have formed on it, the level of 3.160 appears to sufficiently account for the risks of an extremely hot summer.
→ Bears might push the price to the lower boundary of the ascending trend channel.
Since then, the price of natural gas has:
→ tested the median of the ascending channel (shown by an arrow), which acted as resistance;
→ broken the lower boundary of the channel;
→ dropped to the level of 2.06 amid news of sufficient natural gas reserves in storage.
And, as the XNG/USD chart shows today, it is this level that is now forming signs of support for the market:
→ the lows A-B appear to be elements of an incomplete double bottom pattern;
→ the level of 2.06 acted as resistance in March-April, so support here is anticipated by technical analysts.
But can the bulls reverse the trend?
In the near future, the price of natural gas may consolidate within a narrowing triangle, formed by the support at 2.06 and the descending trend line (shown in red). It is possible that failures in any attempts to break through the red line will lead to a resumption of the downward trend and a subsequent decline in price towards the support at 1.875.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Natural Gas...New All time lows? Natural gas has seen a failed breakout on the daily chart. After this failed breakout occured its been weeks of relentless sell side pressure.
We have lost key weekly and daily supports, which doesn't help the bullish case.
There is 1 small positive on the daily chart: a positive RSI bullish divergence.
Understanding how this commodity works, one should be prepared for a downside case of $1.60. Its not a guarantee but a possibility.
The Nat gas resource stocks are mixed and showing sings of volume accumulation.
I'm watching the $1.95 Gap fill on Nat Gas very closely. If the bulls defend that area we could rally quickly.
Keep your eye om the "Death Cross" signal, usually a buy signal for a short term bounce.
Natural Gas: Will the bulls ever come back? Another sell side day for nat gas...what else is new?
back to the same technical support trend line for Nat gas. technically this is support. If this trend line holds we will see an epic bounce IMO.
If we break this are we could be testing $1.90.
I believe that this is still a great risk to reward to accumulate for the long term, while understanding there could still be another 20% down if we break this level...so HODL accordingly.
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Completing the eight-wave cycleGreetings,
Dear friends, I hope you are well and have a week full of successful and profitable transactions.
I haven't been in the service of the companions on the Trading View platform for a few weeks because I was completing an educational resource. I hope I can make up for my absence from now on, but if I see a valuable market, I will share it with you.
The text of my analysis:
Regarding his view of the natural gas market, he has advanced five waves upwards, which has formed an impulse pattern, followed by a simple sharp zigzag pattern consisting of three waves, and wave C has advanced more than 161.8%. However, based on my personal experience, I have come across such corrections in several markets, which correct very deeply.
Anyway, I am currently waiting for the trend to exit the channel until the price of the aggressive idea passes, and definitely after the formation of each wave, a corrective pattern should be formed, and the trend should continue.
Completing the eight-wave cycle.
Note: I am an analyst in the world of principle wave, who has entered the fourth year of my work experience, and I am developing an analytical idea. In financial markets, there is no 100% certainty due to the complexity of different patterns that can change. However, I do my best to back up every analysis I share with you guys with everything I've learned so far.
A brief explanation of the three fundamental laws of the wave principle:
1. The second wave should never go beyond the beginning of the first wave.
2. The third wave should never be the shortest wave between waves 1, 3, and 5.
3. The fourth wave must never enter the territory of the first wave.
Ralph Nelson Elliott was the founder of this theory, and when asked about his view of the market, he always referred to five waves in the direction of a larger trend and three waves against the direction it was taking. After completing an eight-wave cycle, a larger cycle is formed in the future, simply.
May his memory be cherished, and may his soul rest in the shelter of God Almighty and the eternal world.
I am attaching the analysis of this market that I shared with you earlier to this current analysis.
The last word of my analysis text is repetitive, except to explain the current analysis because I also trade in the financial markets and I am active in my social networks, and I work hard to improve my skills in analysis and trading to reach my goal.
I apologize for repeating the text.
I welcome suggestions and criticisms, and I will respond, but a logical reason is important to me.
Thank you for taking the time to review my analysis.
First of all, I wish good health and success to all my dear friends and colleagues.
Mr. Nobody