Seasonal Strategies: Trading Natural Gas with a Tactical Edge1. Introduction
Natural Gas Futures (NG1! and MNG1!) hold a significant place in the energy market, acting as a key barometer for both seasonal and macroeconomic trends. These futures contracts are not just tools for hedging energy prices but also present potentially lucrative opportunities for traders who understand the underlying seasonal patterns that influence their movement.
Seasonality is a powerful concept in trading, particularly in commodities like Natural Gas, where demand and supply fluctuations are often tied to predictable seasonal factors.
2. Understanding Seasonality in Natural Gas
Seasonality refers to the predictable changes in price and market behavior that occur at specific times of the year. In the context of commodities like Natural Gas, seasonality is particularly significant due to the cyclical nature of energy consumption and production. Factors such as weather patterns, heating demand in winter, cooling demand in summer, and storage levels contribute to the seasonal price movements observed in Natural Gas Futures.
For this analysis, daily data from November 14, 1995, to August 30, 2024, has been meticulously examined. By calculating the 21-day moving average (representing a month) and the 63-day moving average (representing a quarter), bullish and bearish crossovers have been identified.
3. Analyzing Bullish and Bearish Crossovers
Bullish and bearish crossovers are critical signals in technical analysis, representing points where momentum shifts from one direction to another. In our analysis of Natural Gas Futures, such crossovers provide a clear indication of the monthly and quarterly trends.
The data reveals distinct patterns in the frequency and magnitude of bullish and bearish crossovers across different months:
Bullish Crossovers: Certain months, particularly March, April, and September, show a high number of bullish crossovers. This suggests that these months are historically strong for upward price movements, offering potential buying opportunities.
Bearish Crossovers: On the other hand, months like May, June, October, and November are marked by a higher frequency of bearish crossovers. These periods have historically seen downward price pressure, which could present short-selling opportunities.
The below chart further illustrates these patterns, highlighting the months with the most significant bullish and bearish activity.
4. Key Seasonal Patterns in Natural Gas
The analysis of Natural Gas Futures reveals distinct seasonal patterns that vary significantly from month to month. By understanding these patterns, traders can strategically plan to time their trades by aligning with the most opportune periods for either bullish or bearish movements.
January to February: Mixed Signals
Historically showing a balanced number of bullish and bearish crossovers. This suggests that while there are opportunities for both long and short trades, caution is warranted as the market can be unpredictable during this period.
March to April: Bullish Momentum
We see a shift towards more bullish activity. While there is still some bearish potential, the overall trend favors upward movements. Traders might consider looking for long opportunities during this period.
May to June: Bearish Pressure
The market shows signs of bearish pressure indicating a potential shift in momentum.
July, August and September: Summer Bulls
July and August: The bullish trend tends to be back but with a higher degree of volatility which may involve sudden market reversals.
September: Showing frequent up-moves with strong percentages. This month offers opportunities for traders to re-enter the market on the long side.
October to December: Volatile and Bearish
Bearish momentum and strong down-moves opening the door to shorting opportunities. Traders should be especially cautious in December with very high volatility in both directions.
These seasonal patterns provide a roadmap for traders, highlighting the months that are historically more favorable for either long or short positions in Natural Gas Futures.
5. September Seasonality Analysis: A Potential Buying Opportunity
September has historically been one of the most bullish months for Natural Gas Futures. Despite the common perception that autumn marks a period of declining demand for natural gas as the summer cooling season ends, the data reveals a different story.
Current Market Opportunity
Current Price: With the continuous contract of Natural Gas Futures (NG1!) currently trading around 2.18, the historical trends suggest that this could be a valid entry point for traders looking to capitalize on a potential price rally.
Historical Patterns: September has witnessed some of the most robust bullish activity, with the data showing a clear pattern of price increases. On average, September has seen up-moves of 36.45%, making it a standout month for bullish opportunities.
Trade Setup
Entry Point: Entering the market around the current price on NG1! of 2.18.
Target Price: Based on the historical average up-move of 36.45%, traders could set a target price around 2.98.
Stop Loss: To manage risk, a stop loss could be placed 11.28% below the entry price, around 1.93.
Probability of Success: Historical data suggests a high probability for this trade where 11 out of 13 trades produced bullish moves.
Conservative Approach
For traders seeking a more conservative strategy, setting a target at the UFO resistance level of 2.673 (instead of 2.98) offers a more cautious approach.
6. Trading with a Tactical Edge: Risk-Reward Analysis
The risk-reward ratio compares the potential profit of a trade to the potential loss. In our September example:
Risk: The stop loss is placed 11.28% below the entry price at 1.93, limiting potential downside.
Reward: The target is 36.45% above the entry price at approximately 2.98.
This setup offers a risk-reward ratio of about 1:3.2, meaning that for every point of risk, the potential reward is 3.20 points. Such a ratio is generally considered favorable in trading, as it allows for a greater margin of error while still maintaining profitability over time.
Point Values for Natural Gas Futures
When trading Natural Gas futures, it is essential to understand the point value of the contracts. For standard Natural Gas futures (NG), each point of movement in the price is worth $10,000 per contract. This means that a move from 2.18 to 2.98 represents a potential gain of $8,000 per contract with a potential for risk of $2,500 per contract.
For Micro Natural Gas futures (MNG), the point value is one-tenth that of the standard contract, with each point of movement worth $1,000 per contract. Therefore, the for same trade plan, the potential for reward and risk per contract would be $800 and $250 respectively.
7. Discipline and Emotional Control
Successful risk management also requires discipline and emotional control. It's essential to stick to your trading plan, avoid impulsive decisions, and manage your emotions, especially during periods of market volatility. Fear and greed are the enemies of successful trading, and maintaining a level-headed approach is crucial for long-term success.
8. Conclusion
The analysis of seasonality in Natural Gas Futures reveals a rich landscape of trading opportunities, especially when approached with a tactical mindset that incorporates probability and risk-reward analysis. By understanding the historical patterns that have shaped the market over the years, traders can position themselves to capitalize on the most opportune moments, whether the market is poised for a bullish rise or a bearish decline.
This September, in particular, presents a compelling case for a potential buying opportunity.
Ultimately, successful trading requires more than just identifying patterns—it demands a disciplined approach to risk management, a clear understanding of market dynamics, and the ability to adapt to changing conditions. By integrating these elements into your trading strategy, you can enhance your ability to navigate the complexities of the Natural Gas market and achieve consistent, long-term success.
As you apply these insights to your own trading, remember that while historical data provides valuable guidance, it is not a guarantee of future results. Always approach the market with caution, stay informed, and continuously refine your strategy based on the latest information and market conditions.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Natural Gas
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NATURAL GAS has bottomed. Excellent buy opportunity.Natural Gas (NG1!) has been trading within a Triangle pattern since the January 09 2024 High, so practically throughout the whole year and this week rebounded exactly on its Higher Lows trend-line, forming a technical bottom.
The buy signal gets even stronger as not only has the 1D RSI been on a Bullish Divergence this time (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows) but also the 1D MACD formed a new Bullish Cross. Both indicators are posting similar sequences to the Triangle's previous bottom in Feb-March.
As a result, being still below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), this is still an excellent early buy opportunity. The previous Bullish Leg peaked marginally above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, so our Target is 2.900 (exactly on the new 0.786 Fib).
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Natural Gas Robbery Plan To Make and take MoneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist Natural gas based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Stop Loss : Recent Swing High using 1h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
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Natural Gas: are bulls capitulating? The bulls have made 9 attempts at breaking out. All attempts have failed which has led us to this sharp decline.
Nat gas is holding the 20 day MA but it does look somewhat vulnerable to going lower.
The death cross is getting closer and closer as we approach the 50 MA & 200 MA downtrending intersection.
Our members stopped out of the second half of UNG in profits
I am now hoping and waiting for a sub $2 pierce retest. we shall see if we get it.
Identifying Profit Points and Key Short Opportunities for NGNatural Gas has exhibited a bearish trend beginning on June 12, 2024, with prices opening at $3.200 per contract. Throughout July, the market saw significant profit-taking activities, with trading prices oscillating between $2.120 and $2.000 per contract. This price range was perceived as a strategic buying opportunity, particularly at the L3 pivot point level during August 2024.
Subsequently, prices encountered resistance at the R3 level, stabilizing at $2.320 for an extended period of ten days. This stagnation is likely attributed to institutional traders initiating short positions at this critical juncture, influencing the price dynamics.
Further analysis of the quarterly chart reveals a notable rejection at the L4 level; however, it is crucial to note that prices remain above this threshold. Should prices decline below the pivotal level of $2.250 per contract, a bearish stance is advisable, with potential targets set at the monthly L4 of $1.840 and the quarterly L5 of $1.820.
This analysis underscores the importance of vigilant monitoring of key resistance and support levels in the Natural Gas market to capitalize on potential trading opportunities.
Natural gas is the downtrend resuming? Nat gas still fits all the criteria for a large downtrend.
Lower highs & Lower lows are still in place on the weekly timeframe.
This obviously swings probabilities in favour of lower price.
However historically were still at some oversold levels.
Just because this asset is oversold honest mean it can't go lower.
Im watching the daily 50MA & 200MA closely...do we get the death cross formation to occur again?
Usually this signal provides a near term bounce but medium term decline.
Natural Gas: Do or Die!We secured half of our profits yesterday, however I still think we have a very good chance of higher price.
Nat gas needs to make a decision by getting above this key Covid trend line.
We are observing another "death cross" formation developing. If price action keeps rejecting the daily 200MA we may go lower.
Today inventories came out: consensus was 42B actual -6B
This was a dramatic forecast miss & supports higher price / more demand.
If Nat gas can get above this key covid trend line, we are well on our way to $3+
NATGAS Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS shot up sharply
Just as I predicted but
Has now hit a horizontal
Resistance of 2.273$ and
As we are already seeing
A bearish reaction a
Further correction is
To be expected
Sell!
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Weekend Russia-Ukraine Update for Natural Gas Traders in FX MarkHey everyone,
I wanted to share some important updates with you regarding recent developments that could significantly impact our natural gas trades. In the past few days, Ukraine's attack on the Sudzha gas transfer station in Russia's Kursk region has raised some serious concerns. As you know, the Sudzha station is a critical point for gas flow from Russia to Europe, and any disruption here could directly affect our natural gas trading. It's something we all need to keep a close eye on.
To give you some context, Gazprom supplied approximately 14.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas through Sudzha in 2023. This volume accounts for about 4.5% of the EU's annual consumption and nearly half of all Russian gas exports to Europe. Since the beginning of the year, the daily gas flow through this station has remained above 40 million cubic meters. These numbers highlight just how vital Sudzha is for European gas supply.
The main function of the Sudzha gas metering station is to record gas consumption and measure the quality indicators of the gas. The gas flow is measured using two primary methods: variable pressure drop and the more precise ultrasonic method, which measures the propagation speed of ultrasonic waves in the gas flow. The station is equipped with converters, pressure and temperature sensors, shut-off valves, and other equipment essential for accurate gas flow measurement.
In addition, the station features an automated control system that collects, processes, and transmits data on gas parameters. This system is responsible for overseeing the operation process and maintaining accurate records. If there’s an issue at the station, not only would the gas flow be disrupted, but tracking the quality and quantity of the gas would also become much more difficult.
Given these details, it’s crucial for us to closely monitor what's happening in the gas markets and adjust our strategies accordingly. As uncertainty increases, so do the potential risks and opportunities, so I strongly advise you to carefully set your stops in your trades.
Wishing you all a profitable week ahead!
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS FOREXCOM:NATURALGAS
Natural Gas...bullish turnaround!Nat gas has carved out a nice potential base to move higher.
We have seen a failed breakdown whcih usualkly indicates a bullish reversal.
They say the biggest moves come from failed patterns an it certainly looks like a failed bearish trendline break.
If this is the case, Nat gas has a nice 15-20% upside before things get really interesting.
We may be witnessing a weekly inverse head & shouldrs pattern developing.
Time will tell but we are long.