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Naturalgasstrategy

Natural gas: head and shoulders top pattern; $5 in sight?US natural gas prices have formed a head and shoulders top pattern, which may signal a weakening of the current major bullish trend and a subsequent reversal into a bearish one. The left shoulder coincided with the relative highs at the end of July at $9.30/MMbtu, a level that was then followed by a pullback to $7.53 (August 8) prior to the beginning of a new rally toward the head at nearly $10. The right shoulder was formed by the decline from $9.97 to $7.80, followed by a brief rebound at $9.22 and another decline to the current $7.86. Although a brief breakdown was seen in the September 19 session, natural gas is now testing the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. If confirmed, we could see a return to the level of $5.30, which were hit in early July 2022. Additional bearish technical signals for the price of US natural gas include the MACD oscillator dipping below the zero line and the RSI slightly pointing south. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Capitalcom
1
Natural Gas | European Natural Gas Pipeline Closed IndefinitelyGazprom, the russian state-owned energy giant, cut indefinitely the flow of natural gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline into Germany citing an oil spill in a turbine. This looks like the weaponization of energy flows by the russian authorities. Russia will not restart gas supplies to Europe until western sanctions are lifted, official said. My chart scenario is a triple top formation with short term price target for Natural Gas of $9.5. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by TopgOptions
2
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Buying Natural GasTrade Idea: Buying Natural Gas Reasoning: Buying natural gas at a support level, currently in a strong uptrend Entry Level: 8.909 Take Profit Level: 9.980 Stop Loss: 8.620 Risk/Reward: 3.71:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
NLong
by Signal_Centre
2
Natural Gas - Weekly Trading Idea Hello guys, keep your eyes on Natural Gas; Technically by looking at the charts the market is overbought and soon the Sellers will take control and as Fundamentals are concern the sanctions on Iran will be soon lifted and if it will happen then Iran has biggest reserves of OIL & GAS this news will make Panic SELL you should keep your eyes open for the great opportunity. *** This is not any FINANCIAL Advice *** only my Trading Plan / Analysis
NShort
by MHasnain
Natural gas: Will Russia's supply cuts lead to new price highs?The price of natural gas has been going up and down like a roller coaster over the past month. After suffering a severe 45% drop between June 8 and early July, US Henry Hub prices have risen nearly 80% since July 7, recouping all the losses. What's going on in the natural gas market? Russia is squeezing gas supplies to Europe via the NordStream (NS1) pipeline, pushing EU Dutch TTF prices above €190/MWh, approaching the record high reached in March. Gazprom , the Russian energy giant, has announced that it will reduce NS1 daily flow to 33 million cubic metres, or about 20% of its capacity, citing problems with the pipeline's turbines. This puts at risk the region's goal of filling 80% of its storage capacity before winter. According to recent Bruegel calculations, Europe may run out of gas in storage this winter if demand is not reduced. Such supply concerns prompted EU members to sign an agreement to cut their gas consumption by 15% over the next six months. The worsening of the European gas crisis prompted a rush for supplies from other major producers, such as gas LNG from the United States and JKM from Asia. These markets are near full capacity for gas exports to Europe, so prices are rising and we may not have seen the peak yet. From a technical standpoint, price momentum is pushing upward. Nine of the most recent ten sessions ended in the green, a streak that hadn't been seen since late March/early April 2022. The RSI is now approaching overbought territory (70), but it may still have room to decisively break through this level. The June bearish divergence thesis, based on rising prices/falling RSI, is now invalidated, showing that fundamental factors dominate technical considerations in the current natural gas market.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Capitalcom
US natural gas: Bearish clouds ahead?Henry Hub ( US natural gas ) prices have fallen 25% from their peak of $9.64 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) hit in June, as the fire at Freeport LNG’s natural gas liquefaction plant reduced U.S. export capacity by an estimated 2.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) or approximately 15% of annual volumes. The major driver behind the spectacular rise in US natural gas prices had been a rise in price-premium gas shipments to Europe, which was suffering from a drop in Russian supply. As a complete cutoff of Russian gas supply to Europe looms, this should theoretically put upward pressure on US natural gas prices. In practise, however, the US Freeport LNG’s facility is not scheduled to resume at full capacity until 2023, thus pricing pressures owing to greater exports to Europe can no longer occur as they did previously. And the market has already factored this in. On top of this, there is also the risk of recession in the US looming on gas prices. US Natural Gas Technical analysis From a technical perspective, US natural gas prices may have entered a trend reversal phase following the RSI bearish divergence in June, when oscillator values fell from overbought levels as prices reached new highs. This suggested that the bulls’ strength had progressively diminished, allowing the bears to take over. In the last three trading sessions, the 50-day moving average level of $7.5 has acted as a strong resistance for US gas prices. This might pave the way for a price pullback towards the $6.5 support level. A bullish breakout over $7.5 would invalidate the thesis and trigger a test of the psychological $8 mark.
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CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Capitalcom
4
Natural gas tumbles to $5.5 as stockpiles rise: RSI oversoldUS NATURAL GAS prices plunged by 13% to $5.5/MMBtu, the lowest level since March, as a result of investors' unfavourable reactions to recent EIA data that revealed a larger-than-expected storage build. Last week, utilities in the United States added 82 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage, well beyond analysts' projections of 74 bcf. NATURAL GAS prices in the United States are now 43% lower than their June 8 highs. The drop earlier this month was triggered by an accident at the Freeport LNG facility in Texas, which is one of the largest US export plants producing about 2 billion cubic feet per day of liquefied natural gas, or roughly 16% of US annual LNG export capacity. Before June, NATURAL GAS prices skyrocketed owing to increasing export volumes at premium rates to Europe, as European countries weaned themselves off Russian supplies. Technically, the 14-day RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone for the first time since December 2021. This could be an indication that the bearish momentum is starting to hit extreme levels, and buyers could start reappearing on the dip. However, in the absence of a complete capacity recovery in the United States, which is not expected by the end of the year, the potential of shipping LNG gas from the United States to Europe at a premium rate is jeopardised, and US NATURAL GAS prices are unlikely to recapture prior highs in the short term. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodities analyst at Capital.com
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Capitalcom
8$ NATURAL GAS PER GALLON COMMING???Fundamentals; Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding foreign buyers pay for Russian gas in roubles from Friday or else have their supplies cut, a move European capitals rejected and which Germany said amounted to "blackmail". Putin's decree on Thursday leaves Europe facing the prospect of losing more than a third of its gas supply. Germany, the most heavily reliant on Russia, has already activated an emergency plan that could lead to rationing in Europe's biggest economy. Western companies and governments have rejected any move to change their gas supply contracts to another payment currency. Most European buyers use euros. Executives say it would take months or longer to renegotiate terms. Payment in roubles would also blunt the impact of Western curbs on Moscow's access to its foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, European states have been racing to secure alternative supplies, but with the global market already tight, they have few options. The United States has offered more of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) but not enough to replace Russia. European gas prices have rocketed higher on mounting tension with Russia raising the risk of recession. Companies, including makers of steel and chemicals, have been forced to curtail production British and Dutch gas prices , were up 4% to 5% after Putin's announcement. European companies had little or no immediate comment on the Russian announcement or on their contracts with Gazprom (GAZP.MM), which has a monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline. Poland's PGNiG (PGN.WA) said it remained in contact with Gazprom with which it has a long-term contract that expires at the end of this year, but it said it would not discuss details. Italian energy firm Eni (ENI.MI), another major European buyer of Russian gas, also had no comment. It bought around 22.5 bcm of Russian gas in 2020. Its contracts with Gazprom expire in 2035. Danish energy firm Orsted (ORSTED.CO), which has a long-term take-or-pay contract with Gazprom, said it was waiting to hear from the Russian firm and declined to comment further. Uniper (UN01.DE) and EnBW's (EBKG.DE) VNG (VNG.UL), two major German buyers of Russian gas, declined to comment, while RWE (RWEG.DE) did not immediately respond. Technical ; Okay so I'm a buyer now how would i enter the market and and what are the technical reasons that would confirm my bias As we can see that on the higher time frame the market has reached an old highs And retraced and made a higher high in confluence with Fibonacci Retracement and if we zoom out to a MONTHLY TIME FRAME ; that we can see a significant change in overall market structure is broken to see this shift see it in terms of a broken wedge pattern starting from dec,1,2009 to 1 oct 2021 the market has recently retested that zone at 3.600 with a fib 0.618 + confluence of retest of major resistance turned support 3.600. 4 HOUR TIME FRAME ; we can see that the market is making higher highs and higher lows with a standard deviation 0.100 points give or take and average of 0.69 points HEADING TO 8.500 THIS IS GENERAL OVERVIEW OF MY PRESPECTIVE For trend analysis i use quantitative analysis AND ENTRY with help of highly proficient algorithms CONCLUSION i understand that 8$ per gallon gas ideas seems far fetched but all i see right now that the market is pricing in something it could be the reasons above or any other reason but this is what i this is going to happen IF anything happens that changes the fundamentals of this idea, i will update. please note that this is not financial advice. do your own research and use this information as conformational bias on top of your own analysis. like for support!!!!
NLong
by zeyankhan1318
6
NATURAL GAS LONGS ACTIVE 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on NATURAL GAS as price is in a clear bullish market strucutre on D1/H4 timeframe, price made a breakout above the weekly highs retraced back into the H4 imbalance testing the weekly highs and clearly reject from that area. I think we will see 6.0 ASAP. From a market seasonality standpoint we are very bullish as naturalgas should rise in this period of the year + the problems between the Russian Federation and European Union about the gas delivery in the Europe. What do you think ? Where we go next ?
NLong
by AnonimFXRO
2
NATURAL GAS LONGS 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on NATURAL GAS from a medium-long term perspective as we are in a HTF BULLISH MARKET STRUCUTRE, price kept the 4.5 psychological barrier without breaking it to the downside, we have bearish imbalances somwhere around 5.0 that should magnetize price back there, Market Seasonality is very bullish on chart as we have a BULLISH CYLCE + the fundamental context makes me thing we will go higher. I think in the next 2-3monts we will have a huge problem with supply/demand because Russia advised European Union of higher prices on GAS. What do you think ? Comment below...
NLong
by AnonimFXRO