NCLH trying to find the next moveAtm cruise lines are the talk of the hour and are the new SPCE stock to trade during this marketcrash, so puts, calls, buy the stock, or wait with cash? Its hard to say, but theres too much negativity in the news with the virus and doesn't look great.
News
CCL says they have an increase in customers for 2021, yet most of those customers are just trips that are being "refunded for 120%" with 20% as "extra perks," which is just them trying to hold the cash customers already spent.
WHO is getting funding cut due to them not reporting the cases correctly.
China is apparently getting the second wave atm, yet not much news on that.
Banks earning down, not surprising, yet they are getting stricter on loans for new houses. Less money to loan out.
Now TA on NCLH
ATM we are still in a downtrend and bump off of the 50ema
Support is at the 50ema atm with 11.42 as a trading support, which if broken we could see that low $10 trading range. With $8ish as a pretty good bottom.
Resitence is the downtrend line along with 12.84
Volume today has been dropping as we been going up slightly after opening in the red.
I stay short and believe we are going to go lower as theres is no confirm data of reopening due to the latest news on the WHO and CDC pushing for another 100days without sailing and could just close up for the rest of the year. Take profits where you can and wait it out due to the high volitility.
NCLH
Bearish on RCL- pending Dividend cut.This one is almost a gem, probably one of the easiest short out there.
We all know the cruise sector is taking a huge beating, there's no way they are going back to business until late summer or something.( we are talking at least 1 whole quarter of no income)
They will be burning money like crazy this quarter, and possible lawsuits and settlements eventually.
when this corona situation is all done and over with, they will need probably 2-3 years to even make back these losses.
With that said, There is NO WAY, they can maintain a 3.83 EPS for their next earning report. NO FREAKING WAY.
Their current dividend is $3.12 per share , their earning per share is $3.83, that is 81.51% payout to shareholders.
There is without a doubt that they will follow carnival and suspend their dividend soon. (just matter of when)
I am 100% sure that when they suspend dividend, a lot of people are going to drop this stock, which will cause some selling pressure.
The fundamental behind this play is almost on WALL ST HEDGE fund level lol.
Enjoy this free play & Good LUCK
Short entry 49.90
Cover position target 1 $40.90
Cover position target 2 $34.57
NCLH a buy or sell?NCLH has been an amazing swing trading stock buying a sub $10 and selling at 30% gains when selling between mid $11 to high $12.
Overall there’s a lot of sell pressure happening. As seen in the graph the purple box is a trading range back from it hitting its massive sell hitting 7.13 on match 18. I see this time dumping more till $6-$7 range than a good buy to sell back at $8-high $9.
A cross over on macd might happen by Thursday and it is overbought on the rsi
NCLH sweet tradingNow to note on some of my trades went, well not great due to the virus. HL options expired and everything pretty much dropped. Even though I had some bear options on amd and spce. The virus didn't give a dam about it and if you were a bear you were lucky a little if you weren't reading the virus early stages in China, which AMD dump was given.
Now on to NCLH and why I'm bullish.
First the news
-On friday trump signed the 2trillion dollar stimulaus package with 4trillion set aside in case the 2trillion fails...hint hint it will fail.
-Now NCLH and the cruise lines weren't in the relief help in the bill, so on Friday and today they tanked with fear
- Trump has stated he will be buying/bailing them out with only NCLH leaving his mouth, so NCLH could be a safe accumulation phase and probably the most volital stock...I love it
-NCLH, only one I heard, is proactive and leasing their ships to the US gov to fight the virus and help treat people.
-One concern is that their staff has been reported lying about what NCLH is doing, yet the company told their emplyees to stop spreading rumors and the lies.
Now the virus, yes the virus is needed to do TA with uncertain so lets cover global news on it.
-USA becomes number one in case, yet still fewer deaths besides in major cites/high destiny population
-Vaccine/treatment is suppose to come later this fall, yet the average time of a vaccine is over a year, so next year is likely candidate to end the virus/be able to treat it.
-More and more world leaders are catching the virus and could cancel/delay the US elections.
Now into NCLH TA
-Side note I read that there have been alot of put sellers at the $10, yet take it with a grain of salt during this uncertainty and may be just stupid money against crusies.
-Now overview on the lines:
-the purple box is the range a bought NCLH on March 19 with the first blue horizontal line being a sell before it went to $20.
-Green line at $9.88 is todays buy near market open with that insane dump with fear from friday one could say
-Second blue line is the low of march 25-26 which could be a top with this buy in with the idea we could get into a tight range before making the big move.
-First red box of 30% is from todays buy to the low mar 24 before it had its move to $20. The second one is from todays buy to the low of the trading range of mar 25-26
-Emas are still far apart and looks towards more downside
-MACD looks like its gonna go bullish with a crossover as the selling platues out, could make another hill so still risky trade
-RSI is oversold, but not deadly oversold, just oversold by today.
-Volume is dropping and have an expected massive move soon since volume is still up there as today bulls hold the low $10 range.
I'm bullish on NCLH cause it was hit one of the hardest since china came out with the virus early this year. From what I read NCLH is the most proactive crusie line and during this bear trend in the market, I believe sub $10 or whenever you are confident there is hugh potential and upside. Also going on the assumption as the president said they will bail/buy out NCLH after discussion and them leasing their ships out is postive news to accumulate on and could get a bigger cut when they get their releif. Long esposer may hurt, but during this time and with a cheap price this is a great swing trading stock during this market.
NCLH - Fibonacci retracement shows first level of resistanceNYSE:NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) recently ran into resistance as sellers prevented the stock from going past the .236 fibonacci retracement level earlier this week. Furthermore, recent options activity shows bearish sentiment with NCLH put/call volume ratios of 2.07 This means for every 1 call that trades, there are 2 puts are being traded. The Put/call open interest ratio is a little more narrow at 1.20. (Ratios were taken at the time of when this article was written and are subject to change).
With the prospects of receiving a bailout is not looking good for the cruise line industry, there are mixed signals from the White House that leave many investors wondering whether to buy the stock now, or wait for another drop in the stock. Many cruise lines have suspended all operations for 30 to 60 days. So we will be monitoring the impact that has on the stock.
The White House is expected to pass the massive CARES act, which may provide many U.S. companies the eligibility to receive loans or loan guarantees from the Federal Government. The major cruise lines are not incorporated in the United States, which the President knows and mentioned last night that he would like to see them come to the United States... and that he wants to assist the cruise lines. <- You can see now why it's a toss up as to whether or not the cruise lines will receive financial aid from Federal Government.
Based on all the public information available, where do you think NCLH is heading? Up or Down?
$NCLH Finally Finds Trendline Support$NCLH has gotten killed in this market along with the other major cruise line operators $RCL and $CCL. At just under $10 a share, $NCLH looks very attractive after trading as high as $59.78 in January.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in the North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. The company operates the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises brands. It offers cruise itineraries ranging from a few days to 180-days calling on various locations, including destinations in Scandinavia, Russia, the Mediterranean, the Greek Isles, Alaska, Canada and New England, India and the rest of Asia, Tahiti and the South Pacific, Australia and New Zealand, Africa, South America, the Panama Canal, the Caribbean, and Harvest Caye. As of February 20, 2020, the company had 28 ships with approximately 59,150 berths. It distributes its products through retail/travel advisor, international travel advisor, and onboard cruise sales channels, as well as meetings, incentives, and charters. The company was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
As always, trade with caution and good luck to all!
NCLH approaching our first resistance, ,potential drop!NCLH is approaching our first resistance at 56.59 (horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% fibonacci extension , 76.4% fibonacci retracement ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 47.87 (50% fibonacci retracement ).
Stochastic (55,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
NCLH is appraoching resistance, potential drop!NCLH is approaching our first resistance at 56.59 (horizotnal swing high resistance, 61.8% fibonacci extension, 76.4% fiboancci retracmeent) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 47.87 (50% fibonacci retracement).
Stochastic (55,5,3) is also appraoching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
NCLH Approaching Resistance, Potential Drop! NCLH is approaching our first resistance at 50.50 (horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8%, 78.6%, 50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fiboancci extension) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 45.11 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
Stochastic (55,5,3) is also approaching our first resistance where we might be seeing a corresponding drop in price.
NCLH - H&S formation short from 46.43 to 31.33; 45/42.50 Mar PutNCLH - Looking for a short below 46.43.
Target 1 40.33. Target 2 36.33, Target 3 31.33.
100% insider sale from 10% owner.
On the option side $45 March Puts are $1.98, $42.50 March puts @ 1.30.
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NCLH - Upward channel breakdown short from $52.46 to $45.57NCLH seems breaking down from a possible upward channel. it has very heavy insider selling and on the technical side Twiggs money flow sharply down into the negative side. We think it has strong downside potential.
To play this we could consider $60 September Puts (currently $5.30)
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- March 23, 2018
Pattern/Why- Upward channel breakdown, smart money short setup.
Entry Criteria- $52.46
Exit Criteria- $45.57
Stop Loss Criteria- $55.88
Indicator Notes- Twiggs money flow deep into the negative side.
Special Note- BIG selling - over 750 million dollars. Could consider $60 September Puts (currently $5.30)
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
NCLH- Oscillating long from 37.15 - 37.40 NCLH is trading very close to smart money buy zone, it is also a key resistance level.We are looking for a oscillating long from this level. RSI & CCI is in key level of oscillating level supporting the long entry. Wonderful thing is that it has very good risk & reward ration of 12:1 as our stoploss is only about 0.40 if we can take it around 37.15
You can check our detailed analysis on NCLH in the trading room/ Executive summery link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span: 1:25"
Trade Status: Pending