Barron's big money poll on a chartFor decades the Barron's big money poll tries to gauge the psychology of the market conducting a survey of the fund's managers, every 6 months.
I plotted on a chart the results of the last 7 surveys.
In the callouts are the titles of the results .
The line represents the bulls forecast (in green) and the bears forecasts (in red) , using their estimated targets (the end of the line is the date of the target, the coordinate is the target).
The numbers in green are: the proportion of bulls / the proportion of managers thinking that the market is undervalued .
The numbers in red are: the proportion of bears / the proportion of managers thinking that the market is over-valued .
One survey only sets a target for bulls and bears togethers, so the line is blue.
It's neither technical analysis nor fundamental analysis. It's an attempt to know what the others are thinking... ;)
It should be noted that round 5 times out of 6 the NASDAQ outperformed the bulls targets...
NDQ
DXYDXY has another push coming, I would say $98.20-$99 blow off top, problem is H1- H4 are overbought and I cant be sure if DXY takes a LTF dump B4 the blow off top or it's just a LTF dip B4 the mega push to the dollar ensues & most likely this blow off top coupled with 10yr rates dumping to 1.2% or even lower to 1% will likely be that 4400-4500 SP500 dip & 15,100 NDQ & possibly 1 more crash to the crypto. So I can see it coming but I just cant pin point the TF TBH
Long if it cross the levelThe 22 and 26 of november I have started to short the Nasdaq100.
On the 26 all my technical indicators turned bearish.
December the 3 the N100 has lost 7.3% from his previous high, and went widely below the -2DS of the Bollinger Band.
Surprisingly between the 6 and the 7 the N100 took +1.78%. That's the biggest up-gap since march. Moreover in a bear market...
When it comes to fundamental analysis, nothing big happened (only some good news for the chinese market and the fear of Omicron fading, cf Barron's...)
And now all my indicators turned bullish...
Without touching the support (first time for more than a year).
I would advice to buy if the market cross the previous level that it failed two times to go over.
Or even to buy now...
The risk-reward would be between 1.5 and 2, not so much unfortunately.
The blue resistances are the previous ones. The black the current one. And the orange could be the next...
My indicators of a bull market, all fully activated:
SAR, MACD, Premier Stochastic Oscillator and Squeeze Momentum.
Head and shoulders?It starts to look like a head and shoulders.
Look carefully at the levels, on the previous year each time the line was crossed, the trend tumbled toward the support.
By the way I am resolutely bearish since friday (due to my technical indicators, which were the subject of my last post).
It will continue to plummet until december the 13.One idea: trade the trend.
4 indicators: net volume + (SAR and/or Squeeze Momentum and/or MACD).
All are saying the same thing: it's the beginning of a correction.
Reliable since the beginning of this channel.
Enough reliable to put 2x or 3x leverage.
Choose months ago (I was waiting for the right time).
Target: the support round december the 13.
Look at my past ideas on the nasdaq, all of those ideas were correct. ;)
Hope it will go on!
NASDAQ recovers & aims for new all-time-highs amidst earnings The NASDAQ (NDQ/USD) composite index bounces higher off the back of TESLA landing a 100,000 EV order from Hertz.
Moving forward, many big tech companies will be posting their earnings results in the coming days, such as; Apple, Twitter, and Amazon.
Should their results beat expectations then the NASDAQ will likely see fresh highs and a continuation up to channel resistance located around 16,400 index points.
Speculators looking for an entry should wait for a healthy pull back and consolidation to 1st support at 15,200 index points where price must hold.
Alternatively, a break above 1st resistance around 15,750 index points followed by flipping the resistance into support would also be the confirmation needed to enter LONG/BUY positions.
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Apple's WXY double Zig Zag, a probable count !!!Double and Triple ZigZag Rules:
Double (DZ) and Triple (TZ) Zigzags are similar to Zigzags, and are typically two or three Zigzag patterns strung together with a joining Wave called an x Wave, and are corrective in nature. Doubles are not common, and Triples are rare. Zigzags, Double Zigzags and Triple Zigzags are also known as Zigzag family patterns, or 'Sharp' patterns. Double Zigzags are labeled w-x-y, while Triple Zigzags are labeled w-x-y-xx-z. Both these patterns are included in the list of rules and guidelines below. Only a Double Zigzag is illustrated below.
Wave W must be a Zigzag.
Wave C of W cannot be a failure.
Wave X can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
Wave X must be smaller than Wave W by price.
Wave X must retrace at least 20% of W by price.
The gross price movement of Wave X must be less then 3 times the price movement of Wave W.
Wave X must be no more than 5 times Wave W by time.
Wave Y must be a Zigzag
Wave Y must be greater than or equal to Wave X by price.
Back to back and double failures are not allowed.
Wave Y must be greater than 90% of Wave W by price, and Wave Y must be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
Wave Y must be no more than a factor of 5 times either Wave X or W in price or time.
Wave C of Y cannot be a failure.
Wave XX can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
Wave XX must be smaller than Wave Y by price.
Wave XX must retrace at least 20% of Y.
The gross price movement of Wave XX must be less than 3 times the gross movement of Wave W.
Wave Z must be a Zigzag
Wave Z must be greater than or equal to Wave XX by price.
Wave Z must be less than 5 times Wave Y by price, and must also be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
Wave Z must be no more than a 5 times either Waves XX, Y, X or W in both price and time.
Double and Triple ZigZag Guidelines:
The largest Wave in Wave W is usually less than Wave W by price.
Wave X is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
Wave X is usually less than 70% of Wave W by price.
Wave X will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave W.
Wave X is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave W.
Wave X is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave W.
Wave X is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave W.
The largest Wave in Wave X is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price.
The time taken by Wave X is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of Wave 1.
Wave Y is next most likely to be equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of W by price.
Expect the time taken by Wave Y to be between 61.8% of Wave W and 161.8% of shortest of Wave W and X.
Wave XX is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
Wave XX is usually less than 70% of Wave Y by price.
Wave XX will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave Y.
Wave XX is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave Y.
Wave XX is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave Y.
Wave XX is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave Y.
The largest Wave within Wave XX is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price.
Wave Z is most likely to be about equal to Wave Y by price.
Wave Z is next most likely to be about equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of Wave Y.
The largest Wave in Wave Z is usually less than Wave Y by price.
NASDAQ - 15360 or 15500Where to first? Sept 17 2021, Witching Day
We anticipated a retest of 15360 that hasn't occurred yet but NY has opened bullish, pre-sales have opened today on the new iPhones and will be in-stores next week.
Stop's at entry upon shoulder completion, as we could push down thereafter, basically, then a completed head and shoulder formation, creating a double bottom at 15360-15380.
Failing to occur we'd have these entries either running or stopped out at BE.
Expect major moves around 3 to 4 pm NY or 7 to 8 pm RSA.
NAS100Watching the Nasdaq 100 closely his morning after last weeks close super bullish on the big techies right now on this grind line and seeing a potential break this week.
Short term play for me is on the NAS100 but also trading the NDQ on spot for now as more of a long term position trade.
Markets may be over valued but i dont see them stopping any time soon with more and more money flowing into the markets and buying up the big dogs.
QQQs overbought conditions forces June SwoonQQQs has been a steadily forming this ascending triangle flag since early February as part of a 3 month corrective wave pattern (4th wave). It wont take long for this pullback to happen (June Swoon). Perhaps as early July we start to see the market bottom here around 325ish then breaking out to complete the cycle. Sometime around early to mid Sept we top out around 400ish then correct hard.
I'm still trying to figure out what can cause such a breakdown in the market. It is extremely likely that a CoVid wave hits the US once again due to the delta variant being strongly felt among young adults. I'm assuming the US will not hit herd immunity of 70% before flu season (October) and cases rise accordingly. More deaths in young adults. Some states shut down again? Who knows? The other is inflation data coming in hotter than expected and FOMC meeting in the end of Sept causes more deterioration in the market and Powell is extremely hawkish pushing the fed to raise rates sooner than expected as early as beginning of 2022 instead of end of 2022. Oof!
If both news data comes to fruition, I could see the QQQs back in the 250s. The fifth wave is complete and my count is wrong and we go back to 2015 highs. I hope only one bad data happens and we go in this long bull run in the markets for the super cycle.