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🩸 SPX Breaking 200-day MA 🩸 Today's selloff had many interrelated factors, of which came together to form what looks to be a hint of conviction, suggesting further price declines to the downside for most major benchmark's in the U.S. Most people who follow my SPX charts assume that every chart represents a new trade, specific in the time and moment. In reality, this isn't true and I use the SPX as a representation--even more so a manifestation-- of risk-appetite here in the U.S. Yes, there is a direct correlation between a market's range tightening, and the subsequent major moves to either the upside or downside. With the Dollar, it has shifted in what it represents. It's sensitivity to risk trends has improved. Looking at Emini futures over the DXY , we can take away it's not the only safe haven in the market. In fact, in more moderate terms--it's responsive in terms of risk-on, risk-off. A break below the 200-day MA for the SPX , can and should be joined by the Dax ( DEU30 ), with currently active shorts posted on my page over the last few weeks.
SP:SPXShort
by TayFx
5
S&P 500 pattern 5.2 day up, 3 day down holds BUT warning signsYesterday morning's drop of almost 1% was very much not expected based on the previous day trading, but based on the clearly cyclic pattern of 5.2 days up and 3 days down it was right on the mark. If you have been following me, then you will see that I made an addendum yesterday morning (before trading) to note this on my Wednesday night analysis. I was caught off guard by how much it dropped in one hour, but I was able to added to my stocks purchases from the day before during that hour. The pattern going forward though is not as clear. The very consistent 5.2 day up and 3 day down does not align with the end of the month. The end of March and end of April all aligned with sizeable drops. This time around it does not. I am not sure what the next 2 weeks hold. I laid out several different scenarios and timelines. I honestly don't know which it will be. What is clear in this chart and my VIX and AD analysis, is that the market is changing. The VIX did not drop as much and spiked up more. The Advanced-Decline analysis pattern had some anomalies but overall held to form. Apple took a huge hit after almost 7 or 8 days up. It looks like the market maybe repositioning to different stocks given how overbought stock like Apple seem to be. I personally am bearish now and I am looking for a moderate down turn at the end of the month. I don't know how long lived it will be or how low, but something is coming. The pattern of up and down for the S&P 500 since the bottom is as follows: 6.2 days up & 3.0 days down 6.2 days up & 3.0 days down 6.15 days up & 3.0 days down 5.2 days up & 3.0 days down 5.2 days up & 3.0 days down Will the next rally be 5.2 days, 4.2 days, maybe even 6.2 days? Will the 3.0 days of selling change? Will be interesting to see. The fact that the pattern is so precise is mind bending to me. If I was a conspiracy theorist, then I would say some large institution(s) is manipulation the market. But we should save that line of questioning for another day. Please remember to take everything I say with caution and a block of salt. These are just my thoughts/ideas. Please use your own best judgement when trading. Good luck.
SP:SPXLong
by Dr_Roboto
What to do now with Nasdaq?Price is now kind of stuck in a symmetrical triangle pattern where it could hit either way, up or down. For it to go up higher, the price must close above 104.57 which I think it will. Another possibility is it could also hit lower first before trending higher. That would means it would hit 102.85 as the first support. If this support level holds, then we can expect it to continue its upward trend. The usual rules apply - the higher level you buy, you must be prepared for correction, which means suffering a temporary loss. Staring at your portfolio in the red is not a good feeling and that itself can make traders do illogical thing like cutting their loss only to see the next few days, it went the opposite direction. So, if you want to buy, wait for it, don't just rush for it. Stay safe in the game!
NASDAQ:NDAQLong
by dchua1969