Get started

NDQ

You against inflationMoney printing has been a double-edged sword. One one hand ample liquidity helped the exponential productivity of the economy, on the other hand inflation hit hard. In periods of stagflation like the 1970s, immense inflation created an impenetrable ceiling for equities. In periods of extreme deflation (2010s), equities bubbled. It is interesting that in this period, inflation figures were are all-time lows, with immense money printing. With this chart we attempt to measure when and how much equities managed to overperform the weight of inflation. There are two methods of calculating inflation, one is total money printed, and the other is the "cumulative inflation". If we analyze SPX compared to money printed, this would be the outcome: This is not very helpful, since SPX is too closely related to total money printed. To measure "cumulative inflation" I attempted modifying this chart by @SPY_Master DBC*GOLD is a good estimate of inflation. Since we don't have enough historical data for the DBC index, we analyze one of it's cousins, the PPIACO index. DBC is an energy-focused mutual fund, while PPIACO measures the production cost. We assume that PPIACO*GOLD is a suitable replacement for DBC*GOLD. We end up with the cover chart, which I will briefly analyze, since it speaks on it's own. For almost 10 years we were attempting at penetrating the ribbon, to no avail... These fib-retracements are very beautiful... SPX: NDQ: They all prove that there is massive weight on top of us. After almost 10 years of trying to get back inside the high-energy-level above, can we do it now? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
4
Arbitrary LinesBabylon, the city where everybody spoke different languages. In the end, Babylon met grave consequences. (Macro perspective of the main chart) Citizens of Babylon, in our case traders, can barely communicate. They all speak in different timeframes, and with contradicting interests. Which translator in their right mind can untangle spaghetti? Many different lengths of regression. How can any translator give a geographic position of anything? Even if I try to make an argument... ... I am plotting arbitrary lines. (bearish trendlines) A line is nothing but weak. It can easily "disprove" what I have "proved". (bullish trendline) If we are to leap ahead, we must throw away all of which we are sure to be correct. Surely there is something we can agree upon, right? For I was conscious that I knew practically nothing... -Plato It seems that everything is based around the chaos theory. The flight of a butterfly can affect tornadoes. Traders (like me) fall in the trap of making chaos into facts and arguments, and conclude into definitive answers. Clean and ordered answers taken out of chaos. Ordo Ab Chao Is anything/everything that we do a desperate attempt to revert entropy/chaos? Like an insane ritual? Maybe we know nothing. Maybe making arguments and conclusions is meaningless. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NASDAQ:NDX
by akikostas
3
Russel 2000 vs Nasdaq, important momentThis is essentially a momentum play where we're seeking a breakout in the Russell 2000 (RUT) compared to the Nasdaq, signifying relative overperformance and potentially paving the way for new highs on the S&P 500 (SPX). It's important to note that a rejection at this juncture would indicate a bearish signal. However, from a pattern probability perspective, the outlook appears bullish. Even though we're currently at all-time high (ATH) levels, this aligns with historical trends from the year 2000, and the prevailing inflationary period suggests the possibility of reaching even higher highs in the future, unless we breakout on the yield curve inversion and have the bear steepener event (see my other charts) that could very well align with the resistance we have here and failing a monthly breakout we can experience a bull trap. Only a monthly close above is a strong buy signal.
TVC:NDQ
by EdwinPus
2
NDQ | Hidden in plain sight...This is a period of recession, a period when hands change. Last becomes first and first becomes last. Curiously, if you mix and match the main indices, you will get bored of the same shape appearing over and over again. They all appear in the same period. This stuff is hidden in plain sight... NDQ vs DJI SPX vs NYA NDQ vs RUI RUI vs NYA RUA vs DJI This one is full of small HnS. A little rough but okay. And an extra speculation: DJI vs SPX Question: Where do all these HnS lead to? Who is the final recipient? Since all these charts are comparative to one another. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:NDQ
by akikostas
6
NASDAQ Heading Lower For Longer (1D)NASDAQ Daily Price Chart We have quite a bit going on here so, pitter patter lets get at 'er. First, we have our second fake out (Highlighted) on the major trend line (Yellow Solid) which is accompanied by less buying volume than the first. EMA's have not crossed yet however we have a solid close below the 50-day and a legit cross of the 12-day and 26-day indicating a change in direction. We're getting the bounce we thought we might (Teal Dotted), which was outlined in the Weekly analysis that will be linked below, and should max out at the top teal dotted line if it pushes past the EMAs; This will be dependent on Nvidia earnings since it's so heavily weighted on the Index. After it begins to come down the first target of support (Green Box) aligns with the 200-day EMA, so that's definitely in play and will most likely see a decent bounce from there. Relative Strength Indicator Most notable here is the bearish divergence (Aqua Solid) that played out in the previous months and lead to a break in the major trend line. This lead to a small retest and the beginning of a bounce on the line of support (Teal Dotted). From here we likely see a retest of the 50 level to accompany the bounce and a rejection to downside to confirm our analysis. On Balance Volume Similarly to the RSI there was also bearish divergence that played out from previous months that lead to change in the direction of the OBV. The major level of support, or midpoint of the double top, was broken and confirmed the change in direction; This lead to the major trend line on this indicator also snapping. Most recently we've seen the beginning of a bounce on a line of support, which will most likely lead to a retest of the major trend line before resuming it's downward movement. Our target here aligns with another major trend line (Faded Yellow Solid) and the target support (Green Box). TLDR; Bro u pittur pattured moar thn u gat @ hur. Yea, well, we're in the business of pittering and the pattering is good. Price action is showing weakness and we're beginning get a small bounce at the second fake out break out of the major trend line; NVDA earnings will determine the height of it. The 12-day / 26-day EMA's actually crossed this time and there's been a solid close below the 50-day. RSI and OBV both show bearish divergences that have played out and confirmed the change in direction; both indicators are also showing a bounce at outlined supports before downward momentum resumes. Current targets are the green boxes. What Seems Legit? We bounce from excitement into Nvidia earnings; This seems to big one of the largest earnings calls in awhile, so you know big brain bets have already been placed, no one is showing up fashionably late for this. Earnings come out and the market either goes nuts, or has lackluster performance (our guess) into Friday where our overlords seal the deal for lower price movement. Chart Key Yellow Solid = Major Trend Line Red Solid = Major Support Aqua Solid = Divergences Teal Dotted = Support / Bounce Area Red Box = Major Resistance Green Boxes = Supports / Target Areas
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Seems_Legit_Research
Find The Swan!Nobody was prepared the time when the 2020 Black Swan came. But the location of the Swan is very interesting: First, SPX: Not very interesting of a spot... In the middle of nowhere really. Now, DJI/M2SL There has been an impenetrable ceiling for more than 10 years. We almost hit it a third time since 2008, and then the crash came. Long-term Inflation (Gold*PPIACO) divided by money earned from bonds (modified-yields*M2SL) Note that this chart above does not include equities. DJI/(modified-yields) This chart above measures the rate equities become worthy compared to the cost of money. In a sense, as the chart increases, equities take more of the form of "gold" compared to bonds. More about this in the following idea. These charts above show that the Swan occurred in a significant ceiling. A lockdown does not necessarily lead to massive wealth transfer to big companies, and an immediate crash. This chart below shows that the Swan came as an LPSY phenomenon, in the short-term recession no-one remembers. DJI*(modified-yields) vs DJI So in a sense, long-term charts prove that there was not much room above when the Swan occured. And the short-term chart proves that the event occurred at the absolute last moment , when there was no "supply" left (LPSY). The crash was so fast because there was not much volume left in circulation. So the sell-off was quick. The recovery was immediate because the 2020 Swan by itself didn't create structural issues in the economy. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I could get my account banned for spreading conspiracy and misinformation. I really don't care.
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
4