DXY gonna hav a crayZ move when the FOMC meeting happensThe fib time zone that I have drawn on the DXY chart tells that there is going to be a strong move but as anybody who has used fib time zones knows, it doesn't say in what direction. The bond market has (according to traders better than me) priced in so a 75bps hike, so that is certainly on the cards (I don't think that that will happen tbh but I'm pulling that out arse its just a hunch I guess) however we will have to see what happens in just under 14hrs when the Producer Price Index is published which should tell us a what the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index will tell us. The FED on their own website say "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judges that an annual increase in inflation of 2 percent in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), produced by the Department of Commerce, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s mandate for maximum employment and price stability. The FOMC uses the PCE price index largely because it covers a wide range of household spending." so if tomorrow the PPI is low I will definitely consider longing BTC. My only hesitation however is since this move down has been so strong just a limp ass support wont cut it and we need to go back to 20k from the previous market high to trigger a real reversal and for the SPX/NDQ the same is true and that support would be the high before the Corona market crash in late February 2020 (the opinion of a better trader than myself also). We will see
NDQ
NASDAQ move up to test 14000 or backdown to retest recent low?Here are my core trading channels and trend lines for the NASDAQ. NDQ is currently holding just under the midline of the down channel. You can see that we had a bounce off the support of the black channel and midline of the purple channel. NDQ is still looking pretty oversold, but at a clear decision point. IMO, a retest of the recent low for support is most probable and then a test of the resistance of both the red down channel and the purple channel around 14000. We could bounce right from here to that level as the other option. A new low is always an option if we get a retest and it fails, but it is not clear that the market is ready to fall that far yet after such a big sell off the last several months.
1D
Ethereum (ETH): More Downside To ComeClear Head & Shoulders Pattern played out very similarly to the 2018 Bear Market.
The last time we saw this type of breakdown we can see the bottom wicks were very similar and did NOT suggest a bottom.
The First Support is at $1450.
The Second Support, if we see a World Wide Recession play out, is $460.
I know that the second target seems impossible but I promise you if a World Recession plays out, it will become realistic VERY fast.
For now, we just target First support.
Hope this helps, Good luck!
US100 / NDQWe close this candle below the 786 and I think we visit lows before June.
Gap could fill before moving lower, scaling into QQQ 6/17 puts, $330-340 strike Friday.
If we gap up Monday will add provided upper trend line is in tact.
Comparing the Nasdaq, S&P, and the M2 money supplyThe current drawdown in the stock market may not appear like much when looking at a monthly chart, however when comparing to the money supply it tells a different story. From the peak of the dot com bubble the entire market is still down significantly when adjusted for all the money printing the fed has done.
NASDAQ BEARISH BIASNDQ = Current price @ 11,923
The Nasdaq has yet again rejected resistance at 12,560 for the 5th time now
and is heading back to previous support @ 11,699
The Nasdaq has been in a bearish trend since the war in Ukraine started
what is fueling the bearish move is actually inflation worries in the US as well as
poor Q1 reports from companies like Amazon, Netflix, etc.
We expect the Nasdaq to continue its bearish trend to at least 10,999 which is the
next major support level before reversing back to 12,000.
After that we expect a retracement back to 11,699 before continuing its bullish movement
and breaking the major down-trendline.
Short term key Buy levels for day traders
@ 11,699
@ 10,999
Long term the Nasdaq is always a buy if you are holding/Long-term trader
Note: this is just an analysis based on technical analysis & current events. All investments involve risk, our analysis and trading strategy does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make.
$AAPL Giving A Clear WarningAs you can see by the chart, I have labeled every time $AAPL has deviated from its current trend and what follows right after.
This has been a consistent pattern over the last decade and I believe today is no different.
Powell reaffirmed his fight for Price Stability yesterday and will continue to do so until the mission is accomplished.
50 Year High Inflation, War, FED hiking into a slowing economy, QT, Supply Chain shocks, Sanctions/Embargoes, Energy soaring, Gas at $4 in every state in America for the first time in history.
This is not Price Stability .
It is a funny thing really,
One of the most famous quotes in Investing is, "Don't fight the FED",
But everyone only seems to listen when this suggests higher prices.
Markets work in both ways.
I called something similar back on January 20th, you can see it here:
I think we potentially are finally seeing it play out.
Good luck, everyone!
NDX Intraday Upward CorrectionThe Nasdaq 100 index NDX confirmed an inverted head & shoulders pattern breakout on the hourly timeframe to support a short term upward correction that may test 13,100 supply area as a minimum target within the broader downward trend.
Nasdaq 100 climbed 320.53 points or 2.62 percent on Tuesday to settle at 12,564.11, just a few points off the day's high.
$SPX Bearish Harami on Daily chartI'm not that big on candlestick patterns, but a Bearish Harami is essentially a failed continuation of a prior bullish session(s) or rally.
SPX posted a bullish close on the 12th and the 13th, but failed to follow through with a third session on Monday. Instead you saw a choppy session where the bulls and bears tugged a bit intraday, but the SPX lost steam at the end of the session and posted a red candlestick.
It was also fairly indecisive so while one can say that it's a toss up for tomorrow, you'd rather bet on a continuation of the larger downward trend that we're in, rather than some sort of coin flip reversal.
Same daily stick pattern can be seen on the NDQ (Nasdaq 100) and RUT (Russell 2000).
05/16/2022 Pre Market ThoughtsMacro: Bearish
Micro: High Bullish Potential
I am more bullish than bearish currently.
I would like to see a start in APPL above 148.75. I think that can take us to 162 at the top. I think if Appl breaks though, we could see others like Carvana and Bill go up 30% to their respective supports.
I outline more of the specifics in the video.
I hope you all are doing well.
NASDAQ about to repeat the crash of Sept/Oct 2008?The selling in the market seems to be increasing by the day. It looks like we could see some support at the current price, but looking back at Sept 2008 shows that we could still be in for a serious drop. IMO, so far the patterns are similar, except this year's correction is far more aggressive. I noted on the cRSI where they seemed to have a similar pattern. I personally don't think the current trend line will hold for long and expect that we at least hit the 10,000 level. I think 7700 is possible because markets have a tendency to overshoot in both directions, just like the bull rally/bubble of the last 2 years was way above the green trading channel from 2009 bottom.
Here is an interesting look at the NASDAQ stocks above the 200 day SMA. As you can see, we still have more stocks that can go below the 200, and it can stay there for a while.
Nasdaq Timing a BounceZone of Major Support from 12130-12380 (Buy Zone)
Strong Bullish Divergence for the last 3 lows.
Stop losses below this zone keep safe from liquidity grabs inducing short-sellers at major support.
Strong Resistance 12780 (Alternatively if flipped should create strong support).
Further Resistance 13050
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Starting To Look Like The Third Wave Is Still To ComeHaving a look at the Nasdaq and what I have been saying for the last few weeks seems to be a strong possibility at this point in time. This is still not confirmed as yet but the sell off towards the end of last week shows strong supply at the 61.8% Fib retracement level. I'm still not keen to sell into this but should wave three play out, I will be looking for buy entries from the 12000 mark.
Interesting that the third wave target would put us at both a 30% retracement from ATH and a 50% Fib retracement from the high and last swing low in March 2020.
Happy Trading!
Linton