GOLD dump fractal 2024/2023/2022 TP 1800 USD🔸Hello guys , today let's review daily price chart for gold. All previous setups
that I've posted already hit TP, congrats if you followed.
🔸DUMP fractal in progress, it's the same distribution/dump fractal that
resulted in heavy corrections in 2022/2023. On the left we got the current
price fractal, on the right past dump fractals from 2022/2023.
🔸Based on previous corrections, we can expect 10-18% correction in gold
prices from the top (topped out near 2075 usd). Expecting more weakness
over next months, until we complete the dump sequence.
🔸Conservative target is 1800 USD, which is a 12% correction off the highs.
Aggressive target is 1700 USD, which will require a more steep correction in
gold prices. However, I'm expecting prices to stall / reverse near 1800 USD.
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
NASDAQ 100 CFD
UK100 8 hours short rips/rallies tp 7350🔸Hello traders, this is 8hour chart of UK100. Recently trading in well-defined
trading range, risk/reward flipped in bears favor after we got rejection near
range highs, therefore recommend to focus on sell setups.
🔸Range highs set at 7660, range lows set at 7350, premium prices overhead
at 7700 and 7750, below at 7250 and 7300. Trading now near range highs.
🔸Recommended strategy bears: focus on short selling rips/rallies, bears
will target re-test of range lows near/at 7350. strong risk/reward on sell side.
🎁Please hit the like button and
🎁Leave a comment to support our team!
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Nasdaq - Time To SellHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 14 years the nasdaq has been trading in a super obvious bullish parallel rising channel. In the beginning of 2023 we had another retest of the lower support which was followed by a +65% rally. If the Nasdaq rejects the current resistance towards the donwside and retests the support mentioned in the analysis, I will then be looking for long setups again.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
2/12 Weekly Plan. NQ Futures March ESH24 Weekly Pivot is 18,0072/12 Weekly Plan. NQ Futures March ESH24 Weekly Pivot is 18,007
Targets
18,112
18,270
18,426
Targets
17,864
17,660
17,482
Now trading at 18,030
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time NQ hits (2M candle close):
Weekly opening TBD
Weekly pivot at 18,007
Each weekly target.
Side notes
NQ is currently OTFU in (D-W-M), daily timeframe.
Nasdaq (us100)
Hello
Let's have a new update of Nasdaq
Well, we see that we are strongly bullish. Be careful, friends, do not enter into sales transactions
Only sell as a quick scalp
With this bullish intensity, targets of 19,000 and 20,000 will be available
Do not enter into any transaction without confirmation
Possible Significant RecoveyThis scenario is VERY tricky, let me explain why it could go either way, drastically. I'll separate the bull/bear ideas. The nasdaq looks like it could bounce off the BB bottom for a decent recovery, but, it's to see what happens tomorrow.
Reasons for Bull Rally
This month inflation report is cooler.
With a lower CPI, markets will anticipate a 50 basis point or 25 basis point hike, meaning a more dovish stance from the Fed.
Reasons for Selling
This month inflation report is still high or hotter than expected.
With a higher CPI, markets will anticipate a 75 basis point or higher hike, meaning a more hawkish stance from the Fed.
July 29th Q2 GDP comes in negative, officially putting the US in recession.
The negativity possibility is significant. July economic data can break markets like not seen before. This is one to watch. I understand this is the 1M chart, so any move upward will be quick. I don't see markets rising for a few months, but, who knows.
NASDAQ is very close to the top of the 1-year Channel Up! Sell?Nasdaq (NDX) is extending its aggressive rise of the Bullish Leg that started on the October 26 2023 Higher Low of the 1-year Channel Up and by the strength of it, it appears it will extend it to the max. That potential max extension is in the range of 18100 - 18300, which is the top of the dashed Channel Up and the top of the dotted 1-year Channel Up, which was initiated on the market Low of January 06 2023.
A news/ fundamentals based approach could time the bearish reversal after next Tuesday's U.S. CPI report. Technically though, the 1D RSI being on Lower Highs ever since December 19 2023, shows that technically we are already on a strong Bearish Divergence that can reverse any moment. The similarities with the previous Channel Up Higher High on July 18 2023 are striking, with the only exception that the current dashed Channel Up is overextending the 2nd peak.
Regardless of that, the 1D RSI is coming out a similar Megaphone and appears to be on a similar Lower High as July 31 2023. A similar RSI pull-back can be seen from February 02 to March 10 2023, which resulted into a -9.35% decline for Nasdaq. The August 18 2023 decline was translated into a -8.55% decline. As a result, assuming that 18100 is a potential peak for the index, we are targeting a minimum -8.55% decline, which falls directly on Support 2 at 16550. That would break the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and make contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
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NAS100 - EMBARKING ON THE BIGGEST BULLRUN IN HISTORY? Hello Traders, what a week it has been! So I think it is justified to provide you with everything I know and show you how I see things. On the chart you’ll notice an image. The image shows theoretical price action with a parabolic curve step-like formation, representing an idealised pattern in price action trading. The formation begins with Base 1, where the stock starts to show an uptrend, followed by Base 2, indicating continued growth and increased investor interest. Base 3, marked by an "X", signals a critical entry point for traders, as it suggests potential for the stock to double in value rapidly. We are depicted to be at this third phase, which is considered the most opportune moment for entry before the final ascent. Base 4 represents the peak of the trend, culminating in a Sell Point where the stock reaches its maximum and sharply declines, thus completing the pattern.
However, as we gear up for the CPI data release on the 13th of February, be aware that it might steer us into a broad consolidation phase. The market's parabolic trend may not be sustainable given the upcoming figures. Prudence is key here—anticipate potential stabilisation or sideways price action as the market digests the CPI results.
Additionally, watch out for how price reacts to the BOS level. No structure is definite and it's important to adapt to what price is showing us and not to cling to an idea that no longer is valid.
NAS100 Weekly
NAS100 Daily
To add to this NAS100 analysis, I think it’s important to discuss its main components. The "Magnificent Seven" Big Tech stocks, including Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon, have seen varied performance since the pandemic, challenging the notion of them as a homogenous group. The dispersion in their returns and diverse business models highlight the differences within the sector. While Nvidia thrives as an AI specialist and Apple boasts defensive qualities, Amazon combines retail with cloud computing. The sector's valuation spectrum reflects a mix of growth prospects and market expectations, suggesting a nuanced investment landscape rather than a uniform "bubble." This diversity raises questions about the future performance of growth versus value stocks within these leading tech companies.
Apple's revenue grew during the holiday quarter, driven by iPhone sales and a record in services, despite a drop in China sales due to competition and geopolitical issues. The company faces regulatory scrutiny and a patent dispute, but remains optimistic about its product ecosystem and upcoming launches like the Vision Pro headset.
Amazon's stock surged 7.9% following a report of strong holiday sales, boosting its market value by approximately $135bn. CEO Andy Jassy highlighted the company's future focus on AI, projecting AI revenues to reach "tens of billions," further driving optimism for its growth potential.
Alphabet's shares dropped after advertising revenues missed expectations, despite integrating its Gemini AI into various services. The company plans significant investments in AI infrastructure, raising investor concerns about the balance between growth and expenditure in the generative AI race.
Meta's shares soared over 20% after announcing a first-ever dividend and a $50bn increase in share buybacks, signalling recovery from a recent advertising slump. The company plans more investment in AI and the metaverse, despite expecting short-term AI products not to significantly drive 2024 revenue. Full-year expenses are projected to rise notably.
Nvidia's dominance in the AI chip market, essential for technologies like OpenAi's ChatGPT, has driven its significant growth, with the stock more than doubling in value over the past year. This surge contrasts with the broader semiconductor industry's struggles with excess inventory and reduced demand in other sectors. Nvidia's success is partly due to partnerships with major tech firms like Microsoft and Meta, with the latter planning to acquire almost 600,000 high-end Nvidia GPUs for AI research. This focused investment in AI has positioned Nvidia at the forefront of the data centre market, overshadowing traditional leaders like Intel.
Microsoft's shares fluctuate after announcing strong cloud sales integrated with OpenAI's tech, but ended lower due to concerns over high investments in AI infrastructure. Despite a 20% increase in cloud revenues, investors remain cautious about the costs associated with expanding AI capabilities.
Tesla's shares dropped 12% amid warnings of lower sales growth due to reduced demand and increased competition. CEO Elon Musk announced a new lower-cost car for 2025, aiming to regain momentum. Tesla faces challenges from price cuts, higher costs, and a shift in the EV market, impacting its financial performance.
Here’s some economic theory for you, to add some more depth to the analysis. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly changes in the federal funds rate, has a significant impact on bond yields and, subsequently, stock prices. When the Fed raises interest rates to combat inflation or cool down an overheating economy, bond yields tend to rise as well. Higher bond yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, which can lead to a decline in stock prices as investors may shift away from equities. Conversely, when the Fed lowers interest rates to stimulate economic growth, bond yields often decrease, making stocks more appealing, which can boost stock prices. So, Fed rate decisions play a crucial role in influencing the relationship between bond yields and stock prices. In economic theory, bond yields and stock prices exhibit a negative correlation. This is why yield charts matter. Have a look:
The general outlook is that the US Federal Reserve is cautious about cutting rates despite inflation slowing, due to concerns about potential economic growth and inflation resurgence. Market expectations of rate cuts exceed the Fed's projections, but with inflation drivers easing, the case for reducing rates is growing stronger. However, the US job market added 353,000 jobs in January, surpassing the expected 180,000, leading to reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in March. The strong job growth supports the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, despite political pressures. In my opinion, if the US economy continues to show such resilience and the next CPI release is lower than consensus, we might be witnessing the beginning of the largest bull run in history.
In summary, the NAS100's trajectory is at a crossroads with the upcoming CPI data potentially triggering market consolidation, despite the recent parabolic pattern. The diverse performance among Big Tech stocks underscores the need for nuanced analysis. While Federal Reserve policies continue to sway bond yields and stock prices, the strong job market suggests caution in anticipating rate cuts. Keep a close eye on how the NAS100 responds to the interplay of inflation data and tech sector dynamics. Overall, maintain a strategic approach and be ready to adjust to new information as we navigate these complex market conditions. Stay informed, stay agile.
As always, I hope you enjoyed this one and have a great weekend!! ;)
NDX Will Fall! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for NDX.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 17459.6.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 17253.0.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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NDX / 4H / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NASDAQ:NDX The support level at 16019 indicates the formation of a bearish wedge pattern and an AB=CD pattern. I have identified my targets on the chart based on these formations.
Like and comment if you find value in our analysis.
Feel free to post your ideas and questions at the comments section.
Good luck
AmazonSmile. You shop. And... Amazon Still Gives 😊 Amazon stocks are going up this year with solid 52.29% year-to-date gain, that is currently the 9th largest YTD result over all components of Nasdaq-100 ( NASDAQ:NDX ) index.
Work hard, Have fun, Make history - And You're Done! - This is the official tagline of Amazon in 2023.
The slogan refers to Amazon’s dedication to innovation and service enhancement. As can be seen, Amazon tagline 2023 is separated by three ideologies.
Have Fun
There is a saying that goes You gotta do what you love to love what you do, and I believe it much applies to this ideology – to have fun. The key to having fun at work is creativity and innovation.
Bezos makes room for mistakes, as long as they lead to something positive. You know what they say, learn from your mistakes and be better. To have fun is to think beyond the boundaries with a powerful imagination.
Make History
As of June 22, 2023, Jeff Bezos is the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $149 billion, according to Bloomberg Billionaire Index data . Amazon proudly contributes to Bezos’ success, being the most successful retailer company in the U.S.A. Despite such accomplishments, the business still strives to develop bigger by the day.
From A To Z
You can still see a smile formed right under Amazon’s logo; it represents the range of products and services available on the platform. The smile also symbolizes consumers’ happiness when they find what they need within just a few clicks.
Of course, in Trader's terms a market smile also means V-shaped recovery, that is currently observed due to massive Reversed Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern structure breakout.
Overall Amazon stocks still are on the positive path, following the All-the-history support of 10-years simple moving average.
NASDAQ pulling back on high correlation with the July 2023 Top.Nasdaq (NDX) appears to be forming a Top approximately at the levels we described on our most recent idea (January 23, see chart below):
Today we move to the 4H time-frame where we can discuss the shorter term parameters of this expected pull-back. As you can see right away, the July 2023 peak (and the price action that led to it) is very similar to today's attempted technical peak formation. Both sequences started with an Accumulation Phase (green ellipse), rose and then had a 10-day correction and after a short re-accumulation (circle), they peaked on approximately a +6.80% rise. During all this time, they have been trading within a (dashed) Channel Up pattern.
In addition, the 4H RSI sequences between the two periods are virtually identical and we are now on the Lower Lows formation, where the actual index is below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), following the overbought 4H RSI peak. If the price continues to replicate the late July - early August 2023 sequence, then expect a Lower High and then sharp short-term correction below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Target 1 is on Support 1 at 16560 and if we get a 1D candle closing below it, we will re-sell with Target 2 on Support 2 at 16200. That will be roughly a -8.67% decline from the top, similar to the August 18 2023 Low.
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NASDAQ: Is the correction starting?Nasdaq isn't overbought on the 1D time-frame anymore but technically it remains bullish (RSI = 63.538, MACD = 210.050, ADX = 41.826) and will continue to be as long as the two month Channel Up holds. It may be supported by the 1D MA50 but if the index follows the late July peak formation and crosses under the 0.382 Fibonacci level, then we expect a technical short term correction. The crossing will be our sell entry trigger and we will target the S1 level (TP = 16,200).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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NASDAQ 100 / 1H / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NASDAQ:NDX I have indicated the completed targets of the ABCD pattern on the chart. Resistance is at 17670, and support is at 16248.
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👋 Alphabet Inc (Google) — Bear Trap EscapeAmerican company Alphabet Inc. two days before has published a quartrely statement and announced an increase in net profit and revenue in the second quarter ended in June.
In addition, the company said its chief financial officer, Ruth Porat, will take over as president and chief investment officer of Alphabet and Google from September 1, 2023.
At the same time, Porat will temporarily remain as CFO of Alphabet and Google until her successor is found.
The company reported net income of $18.4 billion, or $1.44 per share, compared to $16 billion, or $1.21 per share, a year earlier.
Revenue, meanwhile, rose from $69.7 billion a year earlier to $74.6 billion, also above the market's forecast of $62.06 billion. Cloud revenue was up 28% year-over-year.
Comments by Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet and Google:
“Our products and company performed well this quarter. Our continued leadership in artificial intelligence and our excellence in engineering and innovation are driving the next evolution of Search and improving all of our services.
With 15 products serving half a billion people each, and 6 of them serving more than two billion people, we have a lot of opportunities.”
Comments by Ruth Porat, Chief Financial Officer of Alphabet and Google:
“Our financial results reflect continued resilience in search with accelerating revenue growth in both search and YouTube, as well as momentum in the cloud.
We continue to invest for growth while prioritizing our efforts to long-term reorganize our company-wide cost base and build the capacity to deliver sustainable value over the long term.”
As announced on April 20, 2023, the Company has merged part of Google Research (the Brain team) and DeepMind to significantly accelerate advances in artificial intelligence (AI).
A group called Google DeepMind is reflected in Alphabet's unallocated corporate expenses starting in the second quarter of 2023.
Shares of Google rose more than 6 percent in premarket trading on Wednesday, with a lot of room for further gains.
Technical pictures indicates that major breakout of $125 resistance is happening right now, hitching the price above the neckline in reversed Head and Shoulders chart pattern structure.
NASDAQ Extremely close to a peak and a correction.Nasdaq (NDX) closed yesterday on a red 1D candle, with the 1D RSI above the 70.00 overbought barrier, but remains within the (dashed) Channel Up, as well as supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since November 03 2023.
Based on the 1D RSI which is within a Megaphone pattern, we might be approaching a peak similar to July 19 2023, whose RSI was also inside a Megaphone on almost the same levels as now. Following the peak, the price declined initially by -8.50%. Since the start of the year the other two major declines have been around -9.50%.
This suggests that if the index reverses around next week (Fed Rate Decision), we are technically aiming for 16200, which will put to a test Support 2 and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which made the bottom on the first -9.50% decline of last year on March 13.
The confirmation signal for atleast a short-term sell, can be when the index breaks the 1D MA50. Also, currently, the downside potential can be as low as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which by its current course can make contact with the price around Support 3 (15700). The 1D MA200 has been untouched for more than 10 months (since March 13 2023).
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🦘🦘 Aussie Kangaroo Returns Home In The OutbackThe Australian dollar has been taking a bath. It’s gone from buying 71 US cents at the beginning of the year to netting you just 63.3 US cents against the benchmark greenback.
The dollar is down over the last year against most currencies, and down over the past few weeks against almost every currency.
The humble Aussie dollar is suffering in particular against European currencies: Pound Sterling, the Swiss Franc and the Euro.
However, even in Japan where the AUD is up over the year so far, it is down in recent weeks.
What’s going on? The answer is two-fold.
👉 America’s economy is stronger than expected. And China is weaker, so Chinese yuan has little to no chance of dethroning the US dollar, even as global de-dollarization happens.
👉 Australia gets hit on both of those trades.
Difference between 10-Year United States and Australian Govt Debt becomes lower
Technical graph for FX:AUDUSD indicates that Aussie has a lot down to deliver.