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NASDAQ 100 CFD

NASDAQ Price Trends Analysis: Identifying Overvaluation Periods The NASDAQ, one of the most closely watched stock indices globally, is often characterized by its volatility and tendency to be influenced by tech and growth stocks. In this analysis, we will examine three key elements: periods of overvaluation represented by "circles," the potential presence of hidden bullish RSI divergence in green, and bearish RSI divergence in red. 2. Overvaluation Periods: The "circles" in the NASDAQ context may be interpreted as periods when stock valuations are likely to be overextended. Investors, driven by excessive optimism, may push stock prices to unsustainable levels relative to underlying company fundamentals. These overvaluation periods can be attributed to various factors, including irrational market enthusiasm, speculative bubbles, or favorable macroeconomic conditions. To identify these periods, a graphical analysis of NASDAQ price movements, highlighting significant price spikes or speculative bubbles, can be valuable. The goal is to identify moments when price trends significantly deviate from the overall trajectory. 3. Hidden Bullish RSI Divergence in Green: Hidden bullish RSI divergence in green on the chart can suggest potential improvement in the underlying market strength, even when prices continue to decline or remain stagnant. This situation could imply a possible trend reversal to the upside. 4. Bearish RSI Divergence in Red: Bearish RSI divergence in red on the chart may indicate potential weakness in the upward trend, even if prices continue to rise. This can signal a potential trend reversal to the downside. 5. Conclusion: In summary, the NASDAQ, as a major stock index, experiences significant fluctuations. "Circles" may indicate overvaluation periods, while hidden bullish RSI divergence in green and bearish RSI divergence in red can signal potential opportunities for trend reversal. It is essential for investors to closely monitor these indicators and incorporate them into their decision-making processes. However, it is important to note that stock market investments come with inherent risks, and no technical analysis can guarantee success. It is highly recommended that investors consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and stock market investments carry risks.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by HolderYoda
NASDAQ Numerous technical indicators call for a Buy.Nasdaq (NDX) gave us a low risk sell trade last week (see chart below), where after taking the loss on the Channel Up bottom buy, we reversed to selling on the break-out and hit 14530: Standard 'buy low, sell the breakout if invalidated' approach that aims at assuming low risk near supports/ resistances and high return when those break. This sell-off brought the price on the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Falling Wedge for the 4th time. Coming of a 4H Death Cross, this is the 2nd Low after its formation, which has previously been a bottom pricing and buy signal. Additionally, the 4H RSI has been on Higher Lows on every bottom. The last indication that this is a solid buy entry, is that the price hit the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (from previous Low to High), which was where the previous two bottoms where formed. As a result of all the above parameters, we issue a buy signal on Nasdaq and since the previous Lower Highs almost hit the 0.236 Fibonacci level, we set the Target at 15050. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
3
US 100 INDEX. THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW - LET'S GO DIVINGThere are looming risks that could "break" the US economy and end its current growth cycle. Third-quarter GDP estimates are tracking above 5% and the US economy has added more than 2 million jobs year-to-date. But there are three looming risks that could "break" the stock market and economy and end its current growth cycle, according to a Tuesday note from Ned Davis Research. These are the three risks to consider. 1. A resurgence in inflation Inflation has made progress in trending towards the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% target after CPI peaked at about 9% last June, but any resurgence in rising prices would threaten the trajectory of the Fed's current tightening cycle. 2. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.00% The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged so far this year, hitting a 16-year high of 5.02% on Monday. A further increase in this key benchmark rate would spell trouble for the broader economy, specifically if the yield breaks above the 5.25% level. The 5.00 - 5.50% yield range TVC:TNX was an important double-top in 2006/2007, and also represented the peak policy rate of that tightening cycle. So perhaps we wouldn't take a break of that level lightly. Higher interest rates increase borrowing rates for consumers and businesses and often curtail demand, leading to slower economic growth, if not a contraction in growth. The 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.86% on Tuesday. 3. Credit conditions deteriorating So far this year, the bond market has been more concerned about interest rate risks than credit risks. Technical graph below for US 100 Index NASDAQ:NDX says that main 125-Day SMA support has been broken as well as major upside trend, and technical figure known as "Head and Shoulders" is in progress right now.
TVC:NDQ
by Pandorra
S&P Double TopHistory and Introduction Everyone in the market today remembers broadly the financial response to C19. It We see it every time that we look at the price chart and we see the spike down and the V recovery. What a lot of people may not remember is the investigation into SoftBank for essentially causing a short squeeze by use of call options and gamma hedging. When that news story came out my long term assumption was we would be returning to the C19 low and that has informed every idea I have put out since then. News story www.investmentwatchblog.com An Explain Like I am 5 From Reddit When you write a call as a seller you essentially take a short position against the stock delta wise When SoftBank bought loads of calls that were out of the money then the writers had large negative delta positions against these tech stocks. One common way to offset a negative delta is you can hedge with owning shares to offset the negative position from the calls you write. As the calls were heavily wrote then shares were added to offset risk which contributed towards momentum. As the stock positions were entered it drove up price of stock which put those out of the money options closer to the money leading to more share purchases while SoftBank continued to purchase more and more calls leading to an increased share price between delta hedging and general market momentum. Someone can correct me if I’m off but that’s my broad description www.reddit.com Essentially when that news story came out I, personally, understood all these gains were unsustainable and were going to be given back. This was in addition to all of the other stimulus spending that was going on. There was still gains to be made or lost speculating in swing trading but my ultimate goal was to not buy the top and not to sell bottoms. Main Chart Analysis The main chart has been left pretty simple. We have the Gaussian Channel on top and we can see that in the 70s there were two points in time investors or traders got to buy below the gaussian channel. Fortunes could be made by buying below the channel and merely selling above the guassian channel. Loading up on dividend stocks would have also been very prudent. We can also see the opportunity came again in the 2000s. We can also see in purple the tops where the ADX has been at 20 or below. The 70s dip had the low ADX but the 2000s did not. It is not a necessary condition that the ADX be low for price to go below the gaussian channel, but it is suggestive that with the current low monthly ADX we have a fair shot of getting there. We also see that similar to the 1970s the ADX has been declining over each high for over the last decade. Not a good set of circumstances to be in. The right side of the chart shows the double top itself without any indicators and on the weekly time frame. As it stands right now it looks like a “lower high” double top but price could rally up 17% from the current level and this idea is still valid. The last top took over 300 days to develop and start to sell off to create the valley low. We can still have a significant amount of sideways as bulls get exhausted. Double Tops Double tops are suppose to have a flat base before the uptrend begins and then return to the flat base per Bulkowski, who is broadly considered to have written one of the modern trading “bibles.” www.thepatternsite.com The chart below shows what I consider the flat base to be. The fib draw on the double top does get us right into that range. Another thing to remember is that we don’t need to see an impulse that looks strait down. It is quite probable that price action takes out the valley low and then rally to test previous support as resistance. Here is an example of a double top on bitcoin from the 2018 bear market. The 4-hour chart provides the detail of a double top that developed over 25 days from the time the began to top to rejection oat previous support. So, not only could price action go sideways for some 300 days as the second half of the double top is created, but once price sells off we could spend considerable time in a suckers rally as price returns to previous support and tests it as resistance. Quarter Chart Long term, we have a chance to buy in the quarterly gaussian channel. This would require significant sidewise-ish or channel-ish price action for a decade. Dow Theory Basic Dow theory on bull markets has three phases, accumulation (smart money), public participation, and excess. From there we enter distribution, public participation, and panic. One tenant of Dow theory is indices must confirm one another. www.investopedia.com My linked idea will show that I thought that NDX would have a bull trap. That idea has been invalidated because rather than forming a classic bull trap NDX is likewise in a double top. But having both NDX and SPX in a topping formation suggests that we are in distribution. Since we are talking about Dow theory lets look at the DJI. T Guess what? he Dow looks like it is in a double top as well. Having all three indices appear to be topping within 5 percent of previous ATH is pretty bad. NASDAQ/S&P Since the Nasdaq is more volatile than the S&P we can look for bearishness in the NDX/SPX pair to see broader bearishness in the market. I am personally staying away from the Nasdaq as an investment as possible until it reaches its own double top target against the S&P. Crypto Assets Since I believe the SPX is a index that could be topping for over 300 days and having several consolidations on the way down I would expect some assts to go crazy as investors rotate and individual assets have blow off tops. I expect some massive rallies with some select cryptos and then a lot of despair. A lot of movement can happen in crypto over the lifespan of this idea. Here is bitcoin. What is the traditional target of a rising wedge? The beginning of the wedge. And there is no guarantee that bitcoin will set a higher high. If it does I am selling and probably never returning. Conclusion As someone who thinks the United States have been off sound money since the creation of the Federal Reserve I see all of this as the consequences of late-stage socialism. Subsidies to support government initiatives, transfer payments, bloated public services, debasement of the money supply all lead to public excess in the stock market. The United States as been more resilient than a lot of other countries in warding off the pernicious influence of socialist actors but once the Federal Reserve was created the ultimate conclusion was clear, it was just a matter of timing. Of course, due to inherent theory and model failure of most socialists they don’t realize it is the socialist policies that got the market here. Just like most don’t realize we are in distribution. The distribution phase can take a long time and I expect to be ignoring a lot of news. It’s a distraction. I am going to make the trades and investments as I see them. The main chart focuses on what happened to the SPX in two bear markets, one in the 70s and another in the 2000s. What happened to sound money (precious metals) in the 70s and 2000? Quite simply they went crazy. What happened to the Gold/SPX ratio? They reached muti-decades lows. If the SPX is topping then I would expect to see a massive upside pattern on gold. And I do. There is a cup and handle or ascending triangle. Based on that the time for me to rotate back into the S&P generally would be when the SPX/Gold ratio hits a double bottom from the low of 2011 Likewise with Silver and the S&P I think it is a decent time to take my kids to the precious metals store.
SP:SPXShort
by This_Guhy
17
The NASDAQ and Yield Curve Inversion Battle PlanTL:DR The NDX & Yeild Curve Inversion Pattern suggests that price is bouncing very technically and logically at a long term support trend line. The bubble phase will be complete when price action gets a lot of "white space" between itself and the trendline and the yield curve inverts again in about 2 years. Introduction There is definitely a lot of uncertainty in the market and lots of divergent and conflicting opinions. Lots of conflicting news as to why price could go up, down, or sideways. Ideally TA is suppose to help people see through the noise to make rational decisions in the moment you find yourselves in. A lot of this is pattern recognition and probabilities and sometimes, trite sayings to reenforce deeper lessons. Some of the first trite trading sayings sayings you could have been exposed to: The trend is your friend until the end So long as the music is playing keep dancing bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered Lets keep those in mind going forward analysis There are several stages to a bubble and adept traders and investors will be able to negotiate the market with some understanding of what phase the bubble is in. Generally, there is a fair value stage of the bubble and I have that in the orange channels on the NDX and orange zones in the yield curve portion of the chart. Both orange zones go on for about two years and show lots of uncertainty or even chaos in the financial markets. The late 1988 to mid 1990 saw the end of the Saving and Long Crisis which was a pretty serious event. Looking back the dollar amounts seem relatively small compared to the money that is sloshing around now. The 2005 to 2008 yeild curve inversons kicked off the 2008 financial crisis and it took years for the NDX to return to the swing high of the yield curve inversion. Eventually the uptrend increases its angle of assent and the blue trend line appears. This becomes our long term support and so long as price action stays pretty close to the trend line the bubble can inflate for years. During this time yield curve inversions drive price action back down to the blue trendline. So long as the trendline holds you have a very logical reason to buy. The music is still playing and the trend is your friend until the end. There are many pull back systems you could use to buy the dip technically. Below is the NDX on the weekly with the 200 EMA. Every time it has hit the 200 EMA since 2010 it has been an outstanding buy. It is super easy to set stops down there as well. Whether you like that or not it is a very technical buy and very justified. You can buy dip bearing in mind that "Bulls make money.... pigs get slaughtered" The blow off phase of the bubble occurs when there starts to get a lot of white space between the blue trendline and price action. Once that happens you know that price is going to go below that level because that is how bubbles work. Quite frankly, when I see the white space and the yeild curve inverts again it is basically time to close longs within the next 30=60 days. There may be some more upside but it will be at the end of a bubble, no point in being to greedy and holding to long. Generalizations I see the United States stock market going crazy for the next two years to the upside and then crazy to the downside for another two years. I don't see precious metals having their run until after a lot of the damage from the NDX bubble pop happens. Gold futures bottomed about halfway through the NDX bear market and i think it would be fair to see that happening again. I see crypto going crazy to the upside along with NDX and then having an even crazier downside and that would be the first true bear market for crypto that occurs with a NDX bear market. There is going to be a lot of pain and misery and lots of projects getting the Luna treatment. My linked idea on the XABCD Butterly will show that disaster scenario. My trades I have taken a shining to a couple of cryptos, some new and some old. I still like DASH, DAOUSDT looks good, Kadena looks great. I hope to beat as much money out of these coins while the music is still playing and then hopefully get out before the financial market seizes up again. I think that if things go well for 2 years and my targets get reached before then should be able realize the gains before any catastrophe makes my funds unavailable. Last thing I want is my trades and equity be used to "bail in" the exchanges so they don't have to pay me out.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by This_Guhy
50
US100 Nasdaq Scenario 2:Bearish after Upper GapRed September, Low Volatility, FED, mixed news. The worst trading month of the year has just begun. Thi week Wednesday is more important. 2 Gaps are still open. Up from next week , we will have rarely 3 open gaps(contracts rollover). This is the firt senario was if Nasaq reaches upper gap first15850-159950. As weexpect massive short selling combined with lower Up-Volume at thi zone here is the first short selling scenario. Thisis temporarily trade plan short, with proper profit target. Long term trend is bullish Use proper Money mangemant.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by DaveBrascoFX
2
Technology to Energy RatioEverything is cyclical. Every asset has its own cycle eventually in its own time. From Crypto to Real estate and Technology. I crossed compared the Energy sector to the Technology Sector. XLE/QQQ Then overlaid the Technology Sector to the Energy Sector QQQ/XLE As you can see there is many clues where one will always outperform the other. You just have to hold these assets where one is gaining vs the other. One asset will suck the liquidity of the other and visa versa until one completes the cycle then it repeats Hard assets are primed for outperformance. Happy Investing
AMEX:XLE
by AxeCapp
9
Tesla Just Had Its Worst 4Mo Red Combo. Nightmare, or a Chance?!Tesla's stock just had its worst week of 2023, plunging 16% on Elon Musk's earnings-call nightmare. Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA shares plunged 16% over the five-day stretch ending October 20, as disappointing third-quarter earnings and a disastrous call led by CEO Elon Musk sparked a sell-off. The nightmarish week wiped nearly $130 million off the EV maker's total market capitalization. while Musk's own personal fortune declined by around $30 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index . The stock is still up appr. 80% year-to-date, but has given up some of its gains over the past few months with the early-2023 hype around AI fading and investors starting to fret about the impact of higher interest rates. Last Wednesday, on Oct 18, 2023 Tesla reported quarterly earnings that fell well short of Wall Street's expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.66, missing the consensus estimate of $0.74, and also underperformed analysts' revenue forecasts. Musk then said in a post-earnings call that Tesla had likely "dug own grave with the Cybertruck" due to enormous production challenges, and warned of several economic headwinds that could drag on demand. Tesla just had its worst 4-months Red Combo since June 2023, while Tesla stocks price fading after that within four months in a row, from July till October (in this time). Sure we can call this performance like a "mini-disaster", but still it's too early to say that world's richest man became a "little baby" who is "fully in tears". Meanwhile strong and powerful technical analysis says that the carmaker's hellish string isn't a bad one, while buyout things right here to come. Tesla stocks were doing well in June 2023, where bearish hugs and weekly SMA (52) were broken, so I have to say, there is almost no hellish right here, just a technical confirmation of reversal that has happened several months ago in 2023. Tech graph below is a long-term view, with further updates on monthly/ quarterly basis.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Pandorra
NASDAQ flashed a 13 years old BUY SIGNAL!Nasdaq (NDX) has completed a Bullish Cross between its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA100 (green trend-line). Even though it's not a Golden Cross, on the 1W time-frame it attracts particular importance as the last time we saw this bullish signal was more than 13 years ago (February 08 2010) in the (sharp) recovery process after the 2008 Housing Crisis. The fractals of that Crisis and the (current) 2022 Inflation Crisis are similar. Both hit the 0.9 Fibonacci retracement level and got the first major rejection since the Bear Market. The current wave is ongoing but in 2010 it approached the 0.618 Fib and rebounded strongly for nearly 1 year. On the current pull-back wave the 0.618 Fib is at 14000 and thi index already hit 14420. Is it good enough to start the new recovery wave? It certainly is low enough to give us acceptable risk for the long-term, especially after the formation of a 13 year old bullish pattern. Based on the 2010 fractal, we may see new All Time Highs on Nasdaq in less than 6 months. Are you buying on this signal? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by TradingShot
5
24102023 - #NDXYesterday I gave 2 sell limits (). I would say that the bulls probably won it but the 14760 short level still worked well as it hit and market pulled back over 100 points. Overall, price action looks bullish, with what looked like a reversal candle on daily. Price, however, is still below the DBZ, thus need to be nimble on longs. However, IMO bond yields seemed to have topped (for now at least), thus we could get another leg up. Ideally, we want market to make a higher low (thus not discounting a possible down move first). No longs below PZ 14584, but if price dip to 14464 level, look for a possible bounce and that could bring price back up. Overall, looking for a long to 14776 and 14864, with a max upside of 14942.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
NASDAQ MACD deciding the rebound.Nasdaq is having the strongest two day stretch since October 6th, turning around the 4H timeframe from vastly oversold to nearly neutral (RSI = 41.141, MACD = -139.060, ADX = 43.205). If the 4H MACD completes the Bullish Cross, it will be on the same low level as September 24th and August 21st, which where both Lows of the Falling Wedge pattern. If it fails to be formed, we will hold huying until the price reaches the LL trendline at the bottom of the Falling Wedge. In either scenario our target is the LH trendline of the Falling Wedge (TP = 15,150). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestingScope
NASDAQ Approaching the bottom of the Falling Wedge.Nasdaq is extending the decline it suffered at the top of the Falling Wedge pattern. The Falling Support is the level to watch for buying and the price is within days from hitting it. Trading Plan: 1. Buy when the price hits the Falling Support and the MACD (4h) makes a Bullish Cross. Targets: 1. 15000 (slightly over the 0.618 Fibonacci). Tips: 1. The MACD (4h) gave confirmed buy signals / Wedge bottoms after it formed a Bullish Cross. This is why we consider it a parameter for a buy. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingBrokersView
QQQ weekly consolidation confirmedQQQ weekly consolidation confirmed Context: weekly - downtrend (DT) daily - uptrend (UT) Last day: Price broke previous week low, signaling start of weekly consolidation. Value is overlapping with the previous day. Conclusion: Market looks very bearish but there is an interesting nuance. Although weekly consolidation confirmed we're still in daily UT, which is a bit abnormal. Moreover, value has been moving down very reluctantly in the past 4 days. All these might be a sign that bulls are still somewhere undercover waiting for the right moment to kick-in. Important levels to watch is trend line support and last daily pullback low (353). If there are signs of reversal we can then witness a very nice shortcovering rally Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
NASDAQ:QQQ
by hermes_trisme
2
Citizens Financial Group. Possible Upside on Q3'23 Earnings CallBond pressure... Pushing' down on me, Pressing' down on you, No man ask for... Technical graph says that possible upside with NYSE:CFG stocks could be possible, with projected/ targeted line at 52W SMA. With 6.20% dividends yield, double-digit operating yield and P/B just at 0.6, NYSE:CFG securities can be considered as quite undervalued. The protection level can be considered as multi months (6-, 12-months) low.
NYSE:CFG
by Pandorra