$DXY topping short term?Good Morning!
Trying to get an idea of where #stocks may go. IMO bias is up BUT we cannot be deterred by biases, can we?
TVC:DXY
4Hr is showing weakness.
Circles = moving avg bear crossovers.
We see the quick drops BUT they RECUPERATE hours later.
The 2nd chart shows DAILY vs 4Hr.
Makes it easy to see how decent the drops are.
TVC:DJI TVC:NDQ SP:SPX
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ Small glimmer of hope as 1D making a MACD Bullish Cross.Nasdaq (NDX) recently broke below the Higher Lows trend-line of 2023, the trend-line from the start of the year that has been supporting the strong recovery. This created the conditions for further decline, especially since the 4H MA50 keeps the price action below it, but so far Support 1 (14430) is holding.
The above levels are those we will use as break-outs. A candle close below Support 1 will be a sell signal, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 13900. Since however the 1D MACD is close to forming a Bullish Cross, the bullish momentum attract probabilities and if a candle closes above the 1D MA50, we will instead buy, targeting 15650 (Resistance).
The pattern since mid August is quite similar to the Arc formation of November - December 2022. After the 1D MA50 broke, it targeted the previous Resistance and even hit the 1.382 Fibonacci extension before the next pull-back.
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Bear rallies the most furious, could be in one!Bear rallies tend to be the MOST FURIOUS!!!
Be careful but take ADVANTAGE!!!
SP:SPX upcoming resistance @ 3 areas:
4280
Moving avg is a little above that (weakest resistance imo).
MAJOR = 4330 (it closes above this will post further levels).
Keep an eye as the RSI closes in on 50.
#stocks DJ:DJI TVC:NDQ TVC:RUT TVC:VIX TVC:DXY TVC:TNX #GOLD #SILVER
$DXY trading alongside $TNX & both divergent to Stocks Post #2TVC:DXY on left in all charts (only DJI shown here)
DJ:DJI & CBOE:SPX & TVC:TNX on right.
Short term we are badly due for some sort of relief rally, we nibbled in this area AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SPXL
Not sure how high this can go so we have been nibbling and will sell in tranches.
#stocks TVC:NDQ AMEX:DIA AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ
$DXY makes history (Update idea) Post #1Historically, the YELLOW support area NEVER holds when TVC:DXY is on its way back down.
HOWEVER, the US #Dollar is showing strength. (this is vs a basket of currencies that are also weak.) 1st time it bounced back this hard.
This looks like it wants to keep going, longer term. We'll see.
This is NOT good for #stocks (longer term).
TVC:TNX has been trading closely.
NASDAQ: Can hit 17,000 if the 1D MA50 breaks again.Nasdaq remains bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 40.412, MACD = -138.180, ADX = 35.654) but it is on the HL trendline, the supporting trendline that emerged on the December 28th 2022 low. According to the 1D RSI, comparisons can be made with the September-October 2020 consolidation fractal around the 1D MA50, following the COVID recovery. After the 1D MA50 got crossed over for the second time, the index went on to reach the 1.786 Fibonacci extension level before the next consolidation.
If the HL holds and the index breaks over the 1D MA50 again, we will have a strong long term bullish case in our hands and target 17,000 (Fibonacci 1.786).
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NASDAQ Double bullish targetNasdaq / US100 is consolidating around the 4hour MA50. It is a similar Cup and Handle pattern with August 24th.
Buy and target 15050 (4hour MA200). Then wait for a 1day pull back. Re-buy and target 15330 (Fibonacci 0.382) under the Falling Resistance.
RSI patterns identical, both showing we are in the phase of the 4hour MA50 consolidation.
Previous chart:
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$NDX Quarter 3 (Q3) AnalysisThe NASDAQ has been performing extremely well for the year, and a special rebalance was put into effect in July to slow down the NASDAQ’s growth. Currently the NASDAQ has support in the EMA ribbon, which also intersects with the white support zone and yellow support line. This yellow support line has been acting as a support level since January 2023. I think the NASDAQ will have a bullish Q4 and will trend towards a new all-time high (green circle). However, I think this new all-time high could get delayed until Q1 and Q2 of next year, but I do expect a strong performance for the NASDAQ in Q4.
$SQQQ Quarter 3 (Q3) AnalysisI also believe that SQQQ will form a new all-time low below $16.92 in Q4. Currently SQQQ is sitting directly below a resistance zone between $20.90 and $21.74, and the EMA ribbon is acting as an area of resistance. For bears that are long on SQQQ, the yellow resistance zone is a key price target and the next key price target on the way up is $29.19.
$QQQ Quarter 3 (Q3) AnalysisQQQ lost a support level during the last week of Q3. The last time this happened QQQ climbed up to a new all-time high in 2021 (shown by the yellow arrows). I believe the NASDAQ and its leverage-related ETFs are trending up to a new all-time high over the next few months (marked by the green circle). However, there was a special rebalance that occurred in July that is designed to slow the NASDAQ’s growth since the NASDAQ has been very strong this year. We still haven’t observed this effect yet since the stock market has been in a correction since the rebalance, but I’d imagine it will lead to a slower growth.
Nasdaq Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
SPX | Don't fall for the trap...SPX is plowing through higher highs. It is a runaway train.
Have you entered that train yet? You better enter it because SPX will soar!
But runaway trains have the fate of collapsing in on themselves.
Their weight is too much for the foundation to sustain.
Not all is SPX. VIX is also attempting to measure the risk involved in SPX.
And VIX is as bullish as it gets.
But not all is VIX.
It is important to analyze the volatility of volatility. We are really entering inception levels here.
Volatility is too low and too stable . It is as if it is pressured to make all-time-lows. With such a low VVIX reading, we can conclude that VIX is having no second thought on dropping even further.
Curiously, the VVIX/VIX ratio is a neat SPX tracker.
I have posted about it ages ago.
So what can we conclude about volatility?
Historically, similar volatility traps have lead to severe crashes in the stock market.
Will this time be any different?
So what is in for the future?
Perhaps an all-time high for SPX will come first.
It is not that far...
Then, perhaps some SPX divergence against VVIX/VIX. SPX to move higher with VVIX/VIX moving lower. And then darkness.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
NASDAQ Triple buy signal on the short term.Nasdaq hit yesterday the Falling Support of the Falling Wedge pattern as well as the Rising Support and is posting today the 2nd straight green (1d) candle.
At the same time, the RSI (1d) formed a Double Bottom.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 15300 (Falling Resistance and 0.786 Fib).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is under a Falling Resistance. If crossed over we may start having a case for resuming the bullish trend.
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NASDAQ Correction LevelWe've been seeing NASDAQ index volume decline since mid-July. The rise slowed down and even came to a halt. Therefore, we expect a decline for NASDAQ in the coming period. This decline will reach the 200-day moving average of $14250. But the weekly close could be above $14550 in any case. At this level, purchases of US stocks can be considered.
NASDAQ NQ (QQQ, NDX) Gap Fill LongQuick take here before signing off. We’re already seeing a buy side reaction in US equity indexes as the ES (S&P 500) came very close to filling its downside futures gap. We captured the S&P 500 idea in a post several hours ago (). If equities retest lower, which we believe they’re likely to, the NQ has a couple solid demand/buy zones (green lines) not too far away. Per usual, we’ll have to see how prices approach the levels – hopefully we don’t get too much of a methodical grind lower, forming clean supply/resistance to immediately challenge buyers @ our demand areas; if this happens, the trade’s profit margin/risk-reward could be truncated.
We’ll do a more thorough check later and will update this post, but wanted to give you all something to think about. Comments welcome!
Jon @ LionHart Trading
$DJI @ a support level & oversoldStated a while ago, not sure if we posted here but did elsewhere (see profile), that we had short term Treasury exposure @ 50% but it's 75% atm. (it's a placeholder until trend changes)
Should've been shorting the entire time down.
TVC:DJI @ support but this area has not been a strong level.
However, we are severely oversold so that bounce can be close & it can happen here.
Sticking with the idea that large bounces should be sold of shorted until the technical data changes.
#stocks AMEX:DIA
Nasdaq Bull Trap StudyIntroduction
I lost a lot of money when I began trading in 2018, and truth be told I have not made it all back yet. For years I blew up accounts not being able to recognize bull traps and properly set my stop losses (or take profits) and I engaged in a lot of capital destruction. As such I have spent a lot of time trying to make sure I don’t destroy more of my capital in trading another bull trap. The real question for myself is “Have I become vigilant (seeing what is there), or hyper-vigilant (seeing what is not there).
Analysis
This is a simple application of support and resistance. What was support flips and becomes resistance. But, because we suspect there may be a bull trap we are looking for a potential fake out. So the resistance may look like it is going to fail.
In this case the star indicator is the gaussian channel. We are looking for it to act as support and then flip to resistance. But as the gaussian channel flips to resistance it might look like it will fail and the bullish trend will continue.
That is what we see on our main chart. Price has popped out of a red gaussian channel and so some people may be bullish and expect continued upside. They may be doing fib extensions to the upside as part of their targeting.
For this idea, the Keltner channels is along for the ride. Price pushed the Keltner channel up for the impulse and now I expect to see the top of the kelter acting as resistance on the way down.
Due to the speed of the moves we can see the same thing happening in the 2017-2018 topping formation for bitcoin on Ethereum, but this time on the daily charts.
Eth Example Two bull traps
The main chart is on the weekly timeframe but we are looking at Eth and Bitcoin on the daily. With this set up the Gaussian channel was able to turn green again, once again selling the bull trap. The indicator was green and for the past several years that was suggesting continuation to the upside. But price broke down and the channels acted as resistance until ETH met a major target at the 1.618 extension.
Bitcoin Example of Two bull traps
In the case of Bitcoin with the first bull trap we set up a longer-term consolidation pattern that had people calling for saucer reversals, cup and handles, etc. Signs of green we seen as potential for more upside while more experienced traders were calling for more downside.
Topping in select Equities
Amazon
Tesla
Microsoft
Lulu
Meta (might actually have some more upside potential
Final Thoughts & what I am doing
The equities markets move relatively slow compared to crypto and if bitcoin was able to create a long consolidation structure (ascending triangle) it is not beyond reason to think that the NASDAQ or other indexes cannot either. Bear market rallies are often hard to predict and lead to lots of shorter/options traders loosing money because they did not close their shorts in the money.
I am biased short in the short term. I have one long that I think will be profitable but when that has reached a target I am only shorting. I don’t want to deal with the complexities of having both longs and shorts. It can really hurt your head.
My main trade is merely holding my MATIC short until it hits the monthly SAR.
Somehow Bitcoin, despite all of the negativity, looks to be in the early stages of a bull market.
Maybe we will see bitcoin steal some money away from the Nasdaq rather than having both plunge.
$QQQ Still in Up Sloping Channel NASDAQ:QQQ Until and unless NASDAQ:QQQ drops out and stays out of this weekly channel it seems obvious to me that bulls are in charge. Of course, that can change and quickly but until it does, I remain in the bull camp. This pullback and sideways motion should help set-up more stocks for good entries. All TBD.
So far, (it's mid-day on Thursday so a day and a half to go) we are having an inside week. That is worth noting should it hold thru tomorrow.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.