Understanding Long-Term SPX500 & QQQ Cycle PhasesMy continued effort to share my research, experience, and expectations with the TradingView community has allowed me the freedom to create forward-looking content to help traders/investors understand the real risks/opportunities going forward.
If my research is correct, then next 5+ years will be incredibly difficult for skilled traders/investors. I don't believe the US markets will enter a real organic growth phase until after 2025 (possibly in 2026 or later).
There are many reasons for this extended contraction phase in the US/Global markets. Most importantly is a broad cycle phase related to societal changes. Secondly, we have a Sine-wave structure that confirms a contracting price phase needs to reach a base/equilibrium before it will be able to extend into an organic growth phase.
As a trader, investor, or just someone trying to protect your family, your home, your children, and more, you need to understand the value of PROTECTING CAPITAL before taking on foolish risks. That is exactly what I'm trying to help you manage and understand - where opportunities exist in the markets over the next 5 to 15+ years.
Watch this video, then click on my profile to watch some of my other TradingView videos.
We live in a world where what happened 3 weeks ago is almost forgotten. These cycle phases exist, continue to drive price setups/trends, and will continue.
Are you ready for what's next?
NASDAQ 100 CFD
Weekly Plan NQ Futures Week Of 9-2409/25 Weekly Plan. NQ Futures December ESZ2023.
Weekly Pivot is 14,988
Targets
15,151 9/20 gap top
15,361 last week's vpoc
15,514 prior 5D balance half back
Targets
14,816 250% extension of 5D balance break down
14,628 300% extension of 5D balance break down
15,526 6/8 gap bottom
Now trading at 14,880 NQZ
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time NQ hits (2M candle close):
Weekly opening 14,880.
Weekly pivot at 14,98.
Each weekly target.
Side notes:
Prior day balance zone is H15,714, HB15,535, L15,352
When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Call your Mom; Stocks BLOODBATH LoadingHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
Is the mother of all shorts loading for the stock market? Seems likely!
A lower-high topout confirms that selling pressure dominates as we observe the perfect Wyckoff Method failed breakout (which happens before the bearish cycle).
This means the stock market as a whole will likely experience liquidations soon, driving the price of most stocks into a bearish cycle.
If we pull up a macro Fibonacci Extension, we'll see a perfect top-out at the 4.618 extension, which is always an important one to watch.
NOTE that I am not advocating to SHORT your stocks here. Instead, think of it as a potential opportunity to buy additional at lower prices in the NEAR TERM.
_______________________
📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍
We thank you for your support !
CryptoCheck
DEVELOPING. NQ 60-min. Long/Bounce.Looking to play tech for a bounce here. Demand Zone is sourced from 60-minute chart within the context of longer-term timeframes. As overarching market structure is somewhat of a concern, look to harvest short-term profits quickly and leave runners for intermediate-term swing long if able. Safety first!
NASDAQ Is this what the markets fear the most?More than a month (August 16) ago we called for caution on Nasdaq (NDX) after calling for a short on the 1W MACD Bearish Cross formation (see chart below):
This analysis didn't receive the attention it should as it delivered bad news that market participants wanted to ignore. The 1W MACD Bearish Cross on such a high level hasn't been seen since 2021 and that brought memories of the Inflation Crash.
This week the index broke below the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) for the first time in 6 months with the 1W RSI turning neutral below 55.00 after being massively overbought from late May to late July. So far this looks like a healthy (and much needed) correction, similar to the 1D MA100 hit-and-rebounds of October 26 2020, March 01 2021, May 10 2021, September 27 2021.
The common characteristic on all was that no 1W candle closed below the 1W MA100 and no selling sequence broke below the Support provided by the first candle that approached or hit the 1D MA100. This time that Support is at 14550. So far the current pattern resembles more the August - October 2020 fractal as the 1W MACD Bearish Cross is the widest while also formed after an incredible rally from the market bottom (it was the COVID flash crash recovery then). Check also the 1W RSI which is remarkably symmetrical.
Also every such fractal that didn't cause a crash, broke quickly above a Lower Highs trend-line. The only one that didn't was the market peak fractal of November 2021.
In our opinion, as long as Nasdaq holds the 14550 Support, it will become a buy opportunity the moment it breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line. In that case, we will resume our 16770 long-term Buy Target (and All Time High). If however it closes a 1W candle below the Support, we would expect a sharp sell-off to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), as it happened on the January 17 2022 candle. In that case we will need the fundamentals that will surround the market at the time, to determine the risk of buying at 13500 (projected contact level with the 1W MA50.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
US100 ~ 4H Bullish Pennant (1H update)CAPITALCOM:US100 tapped & held above confluence.
US Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI release could bring in some big swings in either direction...however intuition tells me majority of implied volatility will manifest next week with US data points:
Wed - CB Consumer Confidence
Thurs - Final GDP (q/q) | Unemployment Claims
Fri - Fed Chair Powell Speech | Core PCE Price Index (m/m) | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations
Play-by-play looks the way..
A giant H & S for PalantirNYSE:PLTR has been one of the starts of the AI mania in the last months. The price formed a giant head & shoulders for a reversal. If NASDAQ:NDX looses the support from here, we may see a strong sell rally.
Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Nasdaq Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
NASDAQ Heavily bearish. Short the next bounce.Nasdaq / US100 has turned bearish on the medium term after crossing under the 1day MA100.
The 4hour RSI is oversold so on the short term we can see a rebound, that will be ideal for a new short position.
So far it follows the structure of the prior selling sequence (July 19th-August 18th) and proportionally we are on the spot where the bounce happened on Fibonacci 2.0.
The closer to the 4hour MA50 it gets, the better. Sell and target 14430 (Fibonacci 2.786).
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
$TNX $NDX $DJI $SPX $DXY $VIX calls from Sept 11 on pointWe posted an interesting idea September 11th. These are today's notes.
---
The TVC:TNX is pumping higher - "Coincidentally" the SAME time frame that the TVC:NDQ TVC:DJI & SP:SPX are breaking down!
The 2yr has moved a bit & is testing a breakout level.
All shorter time frames from the 2year are STAGNANT!
#stocks #dollar #yield
NASDAQ: Below the 1D MA100 after 8 months! Attention needed.Nasdaq crossed under the 1D MA100 today for the first time since January 20th (exactly eight months) with the 1D technicals turning bearish (RSI = 38.504, MACD = -53.900, ADX = 32.187). Following a much more hawkish than expected Fed yesterday, the market is taking this opportunity to take profits on a relief pull-back after what was basically a non-stop rise throughout the year.
From a purely technical perspective, the pattern that has the most probabilities to emerge is a Channel Down. Assuming a perfect symmetry on its LL legs, we expect the current wave to be the bearish leg that will take it on a -8.72% decline to the bottom of the Channel Down. We will sell as long as today's candle closes under the 1D MA100 and target a little over S2 (TP = 14,300).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
21092023 - #NDXMarket moved up initially, hit PZ exactly as given () before coming down on FOMC. Price action looks bearish and thus should see further downside. If market can reclaim 14951, will try a counter trend long to 15021 and 15079 before looking for further downside. If market goes down from here instead, will look for reaction at 14861 or at 14775 strong level for a good bounce.
NASDAQ Channel Down buy signal. Short term.Nasdaq is trading inside a Channel Down pattern after the August bullish wave failed to cross over the Falling Resistance of the July High.
The price is currently off a bounce at the bottom of the Channel Down and around the MA200 (1h), which makes it a buy opportunity.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 15450 (top of Channel Down and Falling Resistance).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) formed a Bullish Cross on the same level as the Channel's prior Lower Low. An additional buy indication.
Please like, follow and comment!!
NASDAQ Bottom of the 2023 Channel but watch out if it breaks.The Nasdaq Index (NDX) has been basically trading sideways and around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since September 07. This led the price to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up pattern that has been in effect since the December 29 2022 market bottom. The key Support trend-line has been the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which has been holding since January 20.
As a result, this is the most optimal level to enter a buy (bottom of the Channel Up) and target Resistance 2 at 16570 (January 04 2022 High). If however the price breaks below the 1D MA100, we will take the loss and instead open a sell, targeting the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at 13900, on a potential contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
$DJI $NDX $SPX show warning signs UpdateGood Morning!
We turned neutral, from Bullish Sept 2022, late July - early August.
Since then #stocks have traded slowly lower.
For the moment all major indices trade ABOVE longer term moving avgs. This tends to be a good sign. However, they're all trading sub short term moving avgs.
Furthermore:
Indicators like RSI & Money Flow have eroded recently
They've also formed ominous patterns, as follows:
DJ:DJI formed Rising Wedge.
NASDAQ:NDX $ CBOE:SPX Head & Shoulders.
Most likely these patterns will resolve soon. Either confirm or break.
Have an awesome trading week!
Nasdaq Long As I said 1 month ago NQ100 Will Go to 22000Trend Bullish
P above vwap yearly
Maket profile shiftig higher
POC shifting higher: Now the 15 most institutions and institutional traders, that control more than 75% of the makets( Market makers show their cards:Thier footprint is POC, a phenomenon they cannot hide, but shows exactly what they are thinking, where they buy or sell, and a forecast where they will go to)....
And it is cystal clear:They wanna higher prices....
FED is losing power, and enarly noone but noone does care what FED or Powell and his freinds are telling ya.
The truth is that that the so called infation(yes so called inflation as it was made by FED itself) is cooling down, DXY is depreciating, and retail traders are becoming smarter. The bear market of 2022 was a good teacher, and those among us started to learn, learn and understand the markets, some better than the most professional investors,traders and institutionals...
This lesson was hard but it was worth it:
The smart trader of today has clearly underszoad that no one ,but no one can stop the trend.
And he has also understoad it takes more than watching the news ,following blindly the FED or the so called ,, EXPERTS,,---Those who were made and nouuned as Experts by the media....that is gaining its profits out of the losses of the retail traders, some professionals and most amateurs.
The reality is:
The true fundamentals facts we are reading and watching every day are not true at all: 99% fake, false,manipulated.
What can we do? How can we know if the news we get are fake or real?
Well: My answer is we can´t! And if some news are real, they wont help us. Why? Because they are old. Done,Gone.
The news are made by humans, and the persons are making news they have intentions:Money,Power,....Many insiders, many intrigues...
Well this is trading. It seems to be a chaotic jungle:If we ignore the rules. This is trading.
What to do:
I found my own answer, that helps me to stay focused,awake and profitanle.I m not saying that I make all the time profits. But I use to say over the long run I have beat and will beat the markets,many times,again and again. Drawdowns are part of the game, and every trade we take, might it be on lower or bigger TF displays drawdowns,because the markets are volatile:Some more and some less.But they all are volatile.
It also depnds on your protfolio,if you trade 1 asset, or more assets, and the time horizons...
Statistically, and you can check it up day trading will end in losers, as there is a 50 50 chance to win or lose in day trading.
On longer TF and time horizons that statistics change thier edge into higher win chances...
Therefor I trade only big TF, and only the trend. The intradays ,i use to buy or sell in trend directions..Only.
Back to Nasdaq:
Inflation cools down
Oil down
DXY down
Higher Highs Higher Lows
Higher POC
Volatility of VIX down(Risk down)
RSI long term above 50
Stochastic bullish
The market makes higher highs, and Higher lows, but RSI makes Higher highs and lower Lows!This is a clear indication that the trend will continue and the new part of the trend will be mch more stronger than the previouse one.
Why 22000 and higher: The companies will and must make more profits than expeted to compensate thier past losses of the last 3 years, and evetuelly get prepared for future crashes...So they will increase the production, that increases more job demands, that leads to more hiring people, that will boost household incomes, that will boost more spending because ppl earn more income, that will rise the production cycle of the economy as the production rises, that will prevent RECESSION!
Yes ! Recession: FEDs propaganda is recession, that wont come! Why? Well then read the logical aruments above! And i gotta tell ya something: The aruments above are for real and they are real facts of the last 80 years wrld economy. China, Japan, Europe! Even during the worse crashes China and Japan have been the first countries tehy recovered fast. Japan is refusing to increase the interest rates, and Just see how the economy machine is rolling on...The americans have understoad that logics, and it seems that FED and its friends have not understoad it, or they are unable to understand it.
What is the Makrets answer? They BULL Nasdaq,Dow Jones, S&P and all other indices. That is they answer,and that makes FED much more powerless.
Power to Traders.
Good Trades and Good profits.
Dave
DOW JONES -Divergent Patterns: Comparing Dow Jones and Nasdaq...In my previous video, we examined the long-term perspective and established that we're in the early phases of a significant bull market since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this video, we delve deeper into the current market waves, highlighting the distinctive patterns between the Dow Jones and Nasdaq. Join me as we explore what to anticipate in the near future.
NASDAQ: This is the buy signal you're looking for.Nasdaq is on a neutral 1D technical timeframe (RSI = 54.797, MACD = 35.170, ADX = 44.268) as it remains below the LH trendline within the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200. Only yesterday did it make a HL at the bottom of the short term Channel Up. We don't know if that will be enough to sustain this bullish trend but the price managed to close over the 4H MA100 again (holding since August 29th).
However if the price closes above the LH trendline it will confirm the bullish trend much like it did on August 23rd. The 4H is on a Bullish Cross so we will be ready to buy this breakout. The target will be the top of the Channel Up at a +5.56% maximum extension (TP = 16,000).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##