NASDAQ One last Falling Resistance to break.Nasdaq / US100 continues to trade inside the Channel Up from the start of the year.
It has one last Resistance to cross and that is the Falling Resistance of the July 19th High.
As mentioned previously, this continues to be an identical price action to February / March.
You may take a confirmed sell, once the Falling Resistance breaks and target 16250 (Fibonacci 1.236).
Previous chart:
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NASDAQ 100 CFD
Nasdaq Extremely UV (Not like 2002) Again Check The M2 Supply
I see people posting comparisons of the NDX 100 from 2000 comparing it to 2023.
Its nothing alike people are still short waiting for a "collapse" that will never come due to the fact the USM2 is debasing and offsetting the actual index.
I'm shocked not even the "experts" on Youtube or Twitter explain this to new people coming into the markets. Because they don't even understand this either.
The Nasdaq is not going to collapse its extremely undervalued right now.
NASDAQ 4H Buy signal within the Channel Up.Nasdaq (NDX) is breaking above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again following a Bullish Cross on the 4H MACD and it needs a 4H candle closing above it in order to confirm the continuation of this bullish move.
If confirmed, it will technically be the extension of the new bullish leg of the short-term Channel Up towards its top (Higher Highs trend-line). As you can see, both previous bullish legs have started right before a 4H MACD Bullish Cross and since the price already bottomed on the Higher Lows trend-line and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), we have a strong mix for a buy signal, which is just waiting for the above mentioned confirmation. Our target is Resistance 1 at 15930, which will be a +5.30% rise from the bottom, similar to the previous two.
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Russel 2000 vs Nasdaq, important momentThis is essentially a momentum play where we're seeking a breakout in the Russell 2000 (RUT) compared to the Nasdaq, signifying relative overperformance and potentially paving the way for new highs on the S&P 500 (SPX).
It's important to note that a rejection at this juncture would indicate a bearish signal. However, from a pattern probability perspective, the outlook appears bullish. Even though we're currently at all-time high (ATH) levels, this aligns with historical trends from the year 2000, and the prevailing inflationary period suggests the possibility of reaching even higher highs in the future, unless we breakout on the yield curve inversion and have the bear steepener event (see my other charts) that could very well align with the resistance we have here and failing a monthly breakout we can experience a bull trap. Only a monthly close above is a strong buy signal.
$NDX $SPX $DJI forming ominous patternAs we mentioned yesterday, the TVC:NDQ is poised for a big move some time this month.
After posting that, noticed this pattern. Was busy so didn't write it up.
Was out all day celebrating daughter & nephew's bday🎉
Do you see it on the DJ:DJI & CBOE:SPX as well?
We bring up the Head & Shoulder Pattern every so often. It signifies tops.
HOWEVER, this pattern needs the confirmation of breaking the neckline (bottom line - support), especially with volume.
TVC:RUT stays in channel the entire time
#stocks NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA CBOE:SPX AMEX:IWM
08092023 - #NDXYesterday, I gave only 1 direction, to long NDX from support below. NDX was unfortunately weak these days and it broke to the next support, but that was at the same time that SPX hit the super strong 4429 support and it was good for a long. But would say it was much whipsaw then before the move higher. Very choppy move nonetheless. Do read what I wrote for SPX but looking for a move higher. DBZ would likely be first resistance offering a pullback; I do not have specific levels for NDX, but looking for SPX 4483 to trade. Overall, NDX is weak so looking to long SPX would be a better trade.
$NDX big move incomingOriginally posted something like this, roughly, 4hours ago
TVC:NDQ is closing in on the 2023 term trendline again.
Weekly this is shown more clearly.
Back to daily charts:
LOWER HIGHS
HIGHER LOWS
What pattern is this? Symmetrical Triangle!
What does that mean? #NDX has a big move coming this month.😱
#stocks
07092023 - #NDXI said to look for longs only for NDX; was looking for a move higher but instead price came down. 15289 given yesterday (at about where WBZ is, though was not looking for it to be traded TBH), gave a good long for a 100points up. What's next? Based on options, looking for possible ranging for the next 2 days, with possible trades to short 15487 for a move down or long 15241 for a move higher.
NASDAQ This 4hour Golden Cross is the buy signal you needNASDAQ / US100 finished forming a Golden Cross on the 4hour time frame yesterday, the first such pattern since March 22nd.
This is a standard technical bullish signal and as long as the 1day RSI stays over its MA, you can remain bullish.
Target 16250, which is the Fibonacci 1.236 extension.
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06092023 - #NDXNDX was much strong yesterday but as mentioned 15550 was the strong resistance and market is rejected by it. Given the strength of NDX, I am more inclined to only go long at 15344/15288 (15344 more likely to trade) as the two strong support levels, with 15749 as strong resistance and possible magnet.
NASDAQ: Aiming at 16300 after this short consolidation.Nasdaq is on the fifth day of consolidation in a row, with the support of the 1D MA50. The 1D timeframe is on bullish technicals (RSI = 57.978, MACD = 55.620, ADX = 42.134) as the Channel Up since the start of the year is still intact. In fact the recent Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD has print a similar pattern to the March 13th bottom on the HL trendline of the Channel Up.
Consequently, this consolidation is similar to the 10day one from March 17th to 28th, both over Fibonacci 0.618. We consider this a buy signal, and we aim a little lower than the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 16,300).
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Evening Update: What Worries Me in the Short Term?It’s not the Fed.
My perspective is Chairman Powell has been fairly clear in his updates to the markets. The markets simply don’t want to hear any of it.
It’s not bonds, or interest rates.
Those are trackable and I have posted on the 2yr and 10yr bond yields. Yields are creeping higher and have done so since the October lows.
It’s also not corporate earnings.
If NVDA couldn’t save the Nasdaq…then all hope is lost. Well…not all. Lol
Nope, it’s none of that.
It’s the potential for a government shutdown with an October 1st deadline. Is that going to be our catalyst? In truth, I don’t know. But according to CNBC, since the United States is in a Presidential election year, the stock market can’t go down. Have I mentioned CNBC is more detrimental to trading for profit than anything.
I have long contested that the US markets are in a multi-generation reversion to mean cycle. In EWT terms…a super-cycle wave IV. These excuses mentioned above, are all the old paradigms of a 100-year-old bull market which carved out our super-cycle advance in what I am forecasting as a super-cycle wave III top that occurred in January 2022. If my analysis is correct, (and it is by no means a slam dunk as to where we are right now in the indices)…the January 2022 highs will NOT be revisited for a long, long time.
In the short term, let's see if the US Congress proves Fitch's downgrade of US Debt was warranted.
Best to all,
Chris
05092023 - #NDXSimilar to SPX, near term price action is looking toppish with at least a possible pullback IMO. Price is at a support level now; looking for a possible up to the PZ which would provide a good level to look for shorts for a move lower with 15345/83 as near term target; 15345 would be good for a good bounce.
$NDX - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Breakdown support of Rising Trend Channel in the medium long term.
🔹This indicates a slower rising rate at first, or the start of a more horizontal formation.
🔹Approaching resistance at 15800, which may give a NEGATIVE reaction.
🔹Once break upwards through 15800 will be a POSITIVE signal.
🔹Technically NEUTRAL for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern:
◦ DT: Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
◦ DB: Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
◦ HNS: Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
◦ REC: Rectangle | 🔵
◦ iHNS: inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
$DJI - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Achieved target price at 35137 after a breakout of the Rectangle Formation.
🔹Support at 34200 and Resistance at 35600.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern:
◦ DT: Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
◦ DB: Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
◦ HNS: Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
◦ REC: Rectangle | 🔵
◦ iHNS: inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
The Slight Depression - Why NFP Numbers aren't tha NB* with TechWhy jobs added or lost won’t have a big effect on the tech stock markets in the future
Every month, I get asked about NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls).
This is a barometer that comes out on the 1stFriday of every month.
It tells us one thing.
Whether the number of jobs were added or lost in the US economy for the previous month (excluding farming jobs).
Well let’s take the NFP number coming out today (1 September 2023)
Prior was 187,000 and the Forecast is 170,000.
So already, they are guessing there’ll be 17,000 less jobs added this month compared to last month.
In the past I would say, anything less than 170K might be a cause of concern to the stock market and companies (especially in tech) as less people were assigned jobs.
But this month, I have a shift in mind and thoughts.
If NFP comes out worse than expected…
I don't necessarily think this will have a bad effect on the NASDAQ.
In fact, the Nasdaq is showing strong signs of upside to come in the next few months.
Between the Falling Wedge, the Price above 200MA, the price jumping from the prior uptrend - It looks like the NASDAQ wants to shoot up!
And companies like Nvidia, META, Alphabet, Microsoft, IBM and even Tesla, I believe, will do just fine cutting jobs and building their empires simultaneously.
And whether the NFP drops or rises, NASDAQ along with tech stocks will do just fine.
Now let's talk about something a little more solemn.
I have a wild thought of the day.
In the era of accelerated technological advancements and revolutionary influence of AI (Artificial Intelligence), there is a paradigm shift happening between the biologics and the non-biologics.
Sure tech companies will need a strong workforce, but I don’t think they need an excessive amount of employees like in the past.
In the AI era with new AI developments, deep and machine learning to optimise and maximise operations and profits…
I think we WILL undoubtedly see a major disruption in the employee force.
But here is where it gets scary…
Those who adapt, grow and evolve will make it.
Those who don't might, fall behind and into what I call.
The Slight Depression
This is where things are getting tough and more expensive.
· Salaries are staying the same while prices are going up.
· Groceries you have to think twice when buying cereals.
· Flights are crazy.
· Rates and taxes are just ridiculous.
· Some restaurants are out of their minds.
· Don’t start with mortgages, bonds, insurance and medical aid.
· Filling up a tank of petrol is showing off nowadays!
Clearly, there is a shift between the lower and upper class.
Where I truly believe the middle class is falling away very quickly.
Soon it’ll be lower and upper class!
No in between and that scares me!
So…
The onus now lies YOU.
You really need to adapt, adopt and integrate to this rapidly evolving landscape.
Foe examples, if you possess the skills to work alongside AI, harness its potential, and contribute to its development, you’ll stand a chance in the job market.
If you continue to learn new tricks, no matter how old or young of a dog you are.
If you continue to upskill yourself.
If you invest in yourself (physically, mentally and financially).
You’ll have the upper hand.
What are your thoughts?
Do you think a lower NFP number is bad for tech stocks and an index like the NASDAQ?
Do you think The Slight Depression is among us?
Answer yes or no.
NASDAQ All going according plan, ATH by the end of the year.Today we make an update on our 1W time-frame Nasdaq (NDX) outlook on the analysis we published 2 weeks ago:
So far the price action is materializing our projection, as the index priced a bottom near the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) two weeks ago and is rebounding aggressively, in similar fashion as the September 2020 fractal. Similar 1W MACD Bearish Cross and more importantly similar 1W RSI rebound within same Rectangle levels.
If the pattern continues to be repeated, then a marginal breach of the 0.786 Fibonacci could deliver a new sharp pull-back to the 0.236 Fib. Weekly candle closings above it should keep investors interest intact and resume the uptrend, eventually to the 1.786 Fib extension and the 16770 All Time High. We are expecting this to take place towards the end of the year.
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NASDAQ Forming Head and Shoulders ReversalNASDAQ Daily
*Note: This is an update to our previous analysis that will be linked below
Price Chart
The NDX is currently trading within an upward channel (Yellow Solids), and has recently tested the bottom trend line a fourth time; the more price retests it the weaker it becomes. This has also formed what could be the neckline (Teal / Red Solid) to a head and shoulders setup and has pushed the price past the mid-point (Teal Dotted) of the double top; which would also be the head. EMA's on the other hand have failed to cross lower with the 12-day and 26-day recrossing higher. Also notable is the spike in selling pressure on July 21; which is the same area the NDX is currently trading.
Relative Strength Indicator
There is a divergence (Teal Solid) from the price which lead to the trend line (Yellow Solid) breaking and the RSI dipping below the 50 level. The RSI has since recovered, however it's re approaching the trend line for a retest.
On Balance Volume
Similarly to the RSI, the OBV has also shown a divergence from the price and moved lower past the mid-point (Teal Dotted) in the double top. After a bounce at the support (Red Solid) the indicator is moving higher to retest the mid-point.
TLDR;
The market is showing strength, but a head and shoulders pattern is possibly forming as outlined above. RSI and OBV are both signaling higher, however, the indicators are nearing a trend line retest and level of resistance respectively. If price action moves past the head then we have an invalidation, but look for lower buying volume in the beginning of September to signal the formation of the shoulder.
What Seems Legit?
Um, not our portfolio if Mr. Market keeps running away from our targets; the market has been on a tear since the reversal in Dec / Jan. I mean, how many times have you heard those Bloomberg boys on the radio be like "omg markut go zhoom moar! wuuuuut?!", then the analyst comes on and is like "OH YEA NO U GOTTA DEPLOY CASH HERE I MEAN U CANT SIT ON THE SIDELINES LIKE WE CALLED THE BOTTOM AND NAO U GOTTA BAI". Layin' it on a little thick, text book transfer of wealth. Let's see if we get that head and shoulders.
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Chart Key
Yellow Solid = Major Trend Line / Channel
Red Solid = Support / Resistance
Teal / Red Solid = H&S Neck Line
Aqua Solid = Divergences
Teal Dotted = Midpoint Resistance
White Dotted = Invalidation of H&S
Green Boxes = Supports / Target Areas