Nasdaq -> New All Time Highs Before 2024Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Nas100 💪
After the Nasdaq perfectly retested the monthly 0.618 fibonacci retracement, previous monthly support and also broke above a clear bearish trendline, we had a solid rally of roughly 20%.
With the Nasdaq now retesting the next weekly resistance at the $15570 level I do expect a short term rejection again away from the resistance and considering the overextended weekly timeframe, this scenario becomes even more likely.
The daily timeframe however is still super bullish - the Nasdaq just broke out of an ascending triangle formation so I will definitely need some shift back to a bearish market before I then do expect a short term daily drop.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint 📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ: TIME TO SELLNASDAQ - BEARISH INTERNAL CYCLE
Price it's on Panic Area (-0.382 - 0.00%) from Bearish Internal Cycle
I Suggest open SELL positions / take profits from bought stocks listed on Nasdaq at current price
- SL: ABOVE PANIC LIMIT AREA (17094.04)
- TP 1: 12849.15 - 12231.24 (50-61 %)
- TP 2: 10442.74 (100 %)
ADDITIONAL CONFIRMATIONS:
-APPLE Stock on same situation.
NASDAQ - INMINENT SELL OFFNASDAQ - BEARISH INTERNAL CYCLE
Price it's on Panic Area (-0.382 - 0.00%) from Bearish Internal Cycle
I Suggest open SELL positions / take profits from bought stocks listed on Nasdaq at current price
- SL: ABOVE PANIC LIMIT AREA (17094.04)
- TP 1: 12849.15 - 12231.24 (50-61 %)
- TP 2: 10442.74 (100 %)
ADDITIONAL CONFIRMATIONS:
-APPLE Stock on same situation.
NASDAQ The All Time High is the only target left now.Nasdaq / US100 continues to trade inside a Channel Up pattern in the last 6 months.
The price is now comfortably above Resistance A and the only Resistance level that's left to challenge the trend is the All Time High at 16790.
The last two rallies achieved runs of 13.40%-13.80%.
As long as the 1day MA50 supports, keep buying, since also the 1day RSI is supported by a Rising trendline.
Target 16700.
Previous chart:
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US100 Long U.S. Debt Deal Optimism Boosts SentimentI have marked the Bullish Bearish scenarios of the next 2 weeks(Possible Potential Long)
Green Bullish
Golden Cross
High Bullish Volume
Technically: HH HL
Donchian Long
June S&P 500 futures
ESM2023
are trending up +0.18% this morning as market participants weighed the latest updates on negotiations in Washington to reach a debt-ceiling deal while awaiting a key speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
In Thursday’s trading session, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notched a 1-year high, boosted by gains in chip stocks and a more than +9% jump in Netflix Inc
NFLX
after the streaming giant said its recently launched ad-supported tier reached about 5 million active users per month. Also, the benchmark S&P 500 rose to a 9-month high, helped in part by an over +11% surge in Take-Two Interactive Software Inc
TTWO
after the company reported above-consensus Q4 net bookings. In addition, Walmart Inc
WMT
rose more than +1% after the retail giant reported upbeat Q1 results and raised its full-year guidance, helping keep the blue-chip Dow in positive territory.
NASDAQ Resistance break-out, buy signal targeting 15900.On our last Nasdaq (NDX) call (see chart below), we took a short-term buy after a bullish break-out above a key Fibonacci level:
The index made an even more critical break-out yesterday, as it broke above Resistance 1 (15285) which had in the last 30 days two clear rejections (June 16, July 05). This is a technical bullish break-out signal, on a 1D RSI above its MA and the price on a rise after getting close to the Channel Up pattern from the start of the year. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting the majority of this strong uptrend in the past 4 months.
The upside potential extends as high as Resistance 2 (January 04 2022 High) at 16570 but we will pursue a more modest target. The minimum on the previous bottom rebound was the Fibonacci 2.0 extension. As a result, we are buying this break-out and target 15900.
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$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT all pumping but giving back, what now?DJ:DJI is having hard time here, again.
The RSI is much lower, negative divergence, steam running out?
NASDAQ:NDX is higher but also losing steam, RSI lower.
SP:SPX AMEX:RSP & AMEX:IWM all put higher highs but they're also giving back.
All the #indices have low volume. Kind of normal for this time of year.
TVC:VIX is lower.......
Sell on news?
Lots of GAINS over past few months.
Hmmm, let's see what transpires by end of day.
#stocks
NASDAQ Short term sell on the MA50 (4h).Nasdaq is testing the MA50 (4h) as the short term Resistance.
Ahead of Wednesday's U.S. CPI any short term estimate can be invalidated by the usual high volatility but technically, as long as that level holds, it justifies the completion of a Channel Down same as June 15th-26th.
The long term pattern remains a Channel Up, so any pull back is a long term buy opportunity as long as the MA50 (1d) holds.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy at the bottom of the Channel Up.
3. Sell if Support (1) breaks.
Targets:
1. 14850 (expected contact with the MA200 4h).
2. 15450 (+4% rise as previous rebound).
3. 14550 (expected contact with the MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) has offered the ideal sell on its 70.00 overbought level and the ideal buy near its 30.00 oversold level. Use it as an additional indicator.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
UPDATE Nasdaq is on track to new All Time HighsCup and Handle formed on Nasdaq and since then the price has rocketed up.
We still have bullish confirmation of further upside.
7>21>200
RSI>50 (Higher lows)
Target remains at 16,073
One could even lock in half profits here and raise stop to above breakeven.
Fundamentals:
With the Big 7 outperforming this year, we are seeing the innovation of AI, Metaverse and machine learning attract new investors into the market. This will help push up the price bring on higher earnings and help the economy - which diminishes the likelihood of a recession.
The Big 7 are the major tech companies:
Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta.
And as they adapt, innovate and integrate AI into their business models, products and services, this will continue to bring investors into the market and
drive their prices up.
And this means the Nasdaq will continue to rally.
SMC
Sell Side Liquidity (Order Block)
Smart Money buys into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from traders who are long (get stopped) and for short traders who enter into their trades.
NASDAQ: Last drop before the rally.Nasdaq is on the 4th red 1D candle in a row with 4H technicals turning bearish (RSI = 42.946, MACD = -13.870, ADX = 40.063) while the 1D RSI is testing the HL trendline for the 4th time since December 28th 2022.
If it crosses it, we will have a first bearish warning that the 4H MA50 may break for the first time since April 25th, where we will sell and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 14,500). For as long as the 4H MA50 holds though, we will buy and target the R1 firstly (TP = 15,250) and the R2 (TP = 16,000) secondly.
Prior idea:
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$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT Long & Short term viewsBringing indices up again, Let's look at the SHORT TERM first.
(Unfortunately can only show 1 chart, see profile for more info)
DJ:DJI longer term still showing an ascending triangle, current pattern is sideways channel, there's some negative divergence.
NASDAQ:NDX maintains the uptrend, HOWEVER - we're seeing SEVERE negative divergence.
SP:SPX also in current sideways channel, and also showing SEVERE negative divergence.
TVC:RUT completes the bunch with a sideways channel and some neg divergence.
----------------------------------------------------
Longer term #indices are interesting. Using weekly.
DJ:DJI showing slight negative divergence, needs to break out FAST
NASDAQ:NDX Extremely overbought, last 3 times; 2 corrections, 1 major drop.
SP:SPX Nothing out of the ordinary, lil overbought, see #NDX notes.
TVC:RUT Severe underperformer and it looks like it wants to catch up to the others.
#stocks
NDX Expanding Channel: Short Opportunity at $15250 ResistanceOn the hourly timeframe, Nasdaq has established an expanding channel with a notable resistance level at $15250, which has recently acted as a sell zone. Currently, we are anticipating the price to validate a breakout below the lower boundary of the channel. Once confirmed, we will consider entering a short position.
$VIX call was good, markets weakening a bitCBOE:VIX had a $3 bounce from 13.60 call we made.
#Stocks did move a tad higher from that call but are now at the levels when the call was made
SP:SPX held red 10 day EMA (exponential Moving Average).
Sell volume has been coming in @ the higher levels. Hmmm.
NASDAQ:NDX #SPX $ TVC:DJI are all showing negative divergence. This is interesting. Is the current up trend weakening?
Key Drivers of the Market - A Deep DiveHello everyone! Today we will talk about five different important concepts. Many things are happening in markets, so I will create similar reports to help people understand why things are how they are. This will be my first report, so it might be a bit harder to go through, especially because on Tradingview, I can't easily share economic data or random non-Tradingview charts, so I will try to make each concept as simple as possible.
Positioning
1) Positioning in markets appears to be quite extreme. Looking at the CoT long/short data for hedge fund positioning, we can get a pretty good sense of whether speculators are long or short. Overall, the market remains short on stocks and bonds.
Regarding bond data, it is possible that the positioning is like this for other reasons, which doesn't mean they are bullish. As contrarians, we usually want to go against most speculators, but sometimes the speculators take one position for reasons other than making a directional bet (maybe they are hedged).
Another significant market to look at is the energy market, and more specifically, oil, which in my opinion, is very close to transitioning back into a bull market. I am expecting one more shakeout here, with a dip toward 55-60$. I think one more shakeout for oil to take out all the lows (hunt stop loss), and speculators will fully turn short. Speculators have been cutting their longs for a year and are almost about to turn short for the first time in many years.
Inflation
2) Expected inflation in the next CPI print is around 3% YoY and 0.3% MoM, potentially influenced by recent commodity spikes. These short-lived spikes could affect June's print, as some food-related commodities had a little rally. I believe inflation could come back with a vengeance, as there are too many potential issues with producing several materials and products. These issues could be exacerbated due to deglobalization and climate change (not the climate getting hotter, but colder).
Truflation shows 2.3% YoY inflation, inflation expectations are at 2.3%, and interest rates are between 3.7% and 5.25% across the yield curve. My main view is that inflation will trend lower for a little longer, and its downtrend could end with a deflationary spike, as current real rates are substantially positive. It's even possible that we will get negative CPI MoM prints in Q3-Q4, but inflationary pressures will probably resume once we are done with that. Many argue that core inflation is sticky and too high, and I believe it might stay elevated for a while, but eventually, I think it will start falling.
My view on inflation mainly has to do with outright shortages and not with money printing. The current disinflationary trend seen across most countries will probably continue for a little longer as we haven't seen substantial money printing for a while, while interest rate hikes are starting to affect consumers negatively. The biggest issue I see is that commodity producers are struggling and face severe problems due to green policies, deglobalization, and climate change. Another important point is that OPEC+ is about to cut 1-2m barrels/day of production, which means oil could spike as demand remains relatively strong.
One of the reasons I think the biggest inflationary threat comes from the supply side (goods/services) is that Japan has had lower inflation than the US, despite keeping rates at 0. China didn't raise rates either and has been pumping liquidity into the system, as well as cutting rates, and yet inflation there is almost 0%. It shows that inflation has come down independently, with markets slowly shorting through various imbalances, not because interest rates increased. At this stage, higher rates might actually have the opposite effect than the one intended. Why? Because of the massive debts at the government level, which are being inflated even further as governments borrow at higher rates.
Housing
3) The housing market remains strong, and a deficit exists. More supply will be coming online over time, but there are no signs of weakness or that the supply won't be able to be absorbed by the market. Many people are still waiting for rates and prices to drop in order to buy a house, while those with a mortgage are not selling their houses because they don't want to get a more expensive loan. Therefore we essentially have a balance in the market, with new houses and defaults being absorbed by those with cash and those willing to get an expensive mortgage.
Rents have not gone up YoY but seem to be about to trend higher again. As there is still a lot of cash in the market and the US government keeps spending, it's reasonable to expect rents to stay flat or slowly tick higher, even if interest rate hikes are starting to affect the economy. Some countries are really suffering from higher interest rates, as most people have variable-rate mortgages; however, the US is in a better situation as most had their mortgages fixed at low rates. So far, it looks like banks and central banks are taking a loss on all the mortgages issued or refinanced during 2020 and 2021, and this effect won't be reverted any time soon.
GDP
4) Q1 GDP growth was revised higher at 2% (from 1.4%), showing resilience in the US economy amidst recession fears. Despite growth in the US markets, concerns over a recession remain. As the US government keeps spending at a high pace, a recession will probably be delayed; without that meaning, it will never arrive. Interest rates have been rising, and the Fed wants to hike rates once or twice again.
The Fed will likely intervene to support the economy in 1-2 years. As the deficit grows and rates increase, within the next few years, the government will have absorbed all excess liquidity trapped in the RRP or banks. That means that the Fed will then be forced to start buying bonds. The Fed is currently losing over 50B annually because it has to pay high rates to those that deposit at the Fed, which is effectively direct money printing. With so much government debt, the Fed can't raise rates much higher without adding this inflationary component.
Although unemployment and bankruptcies are trending higher, the market is showing resilience. As stated above, the US economy is the most resilient, while many other countries are suffering heavily. What has been very helpful is that so far, we had strong oil production despite the war in Ukraine, while the US was releasing a lot of barrels from SPR. This strengthened consumption and boosted the economy. One important data point that proves that the US hasn't been in a recession is that the Travel Numbers of people flying in the US are at ATHs. How could someone call for a recession with these numbers? It's possible that interest rate hikes and all the printing in the US, along with a strong dollar, helped the US consumer to stay in relatively good shape.
How bad do bankruptcies and unemployment get, and when? I don't know. I believe that the yield curve will eventually be right, and we will get a recession, but it's hard to call for one. Although lots of data points to the US being in a recession or close to getting into one, we haven't had proper confirmation for a downturn. Maybe we have been in a mild recession, and that's why the market is rallying so much, as people feared something awful, and this hasn't played out.
Stocks
5) Stocks seem to remain in a bull market. After hitting the targets that I mentioned in some of my previous ideas, they had a mini-correction. I never turned fully bearish, but I thought at once, the SPX got at 4450 and the NDX at 15200, the market might have topped. This hasn't played out, and I must admit that the market looks bullish here. I can't say anything with certainty yet, but I'd avoid shorting or being all out.
There are still many signals that point to higher stock prices. Apple just had a massive breakout and looks strong. Now at a 3T valuation, which seems too much, but when someone thinks that Apple is one of those companies that are essentially powering a 500T financial system, along with its growth potential with AI, then 3T doesn't seem that much. Although stocks seem expensive relative to the current GDP, let's not forget that AI will boost global GDP massively over the next few years. That means that tech companies like Microsoft and Google will keep expanding.
Also, let's not forget that unprofitable tech deflated last year and hasn't recovered yet, so a lot of garbage got washed out and isn't a drag on the market. Finally, many people are missing something important: leverage didn't fuel this rally. The market deleveraged massively in 2022 and is now free from excess leverage. If this rally was driven by leverage, it would be fragile, and a reversal could occur at any moment.
Summary
To sum things up and add a few final touches... The main things leading the market are: NDX is a monopoly, AI, stock buybacks, passive investing, and government spending. It's improbable that these factors will cease to exist, and things will turn ugly immediately after the best first half the Nasdaq 100 has ever had.
Sentiment might be changing and leaning toward bullish, but I am not seeing anything that's seriously worth paying attention to. Sure, maybe we get another little correction, but nothing more than that. The market looks very strong. Some leading indicators even show that liquidity and financial conditions will improve from here. I believe that too many people are stuck looking at interest rates but forget how bad the government deficits are and that the only way to keep moving forward is to print more money and accelerate growth and consumption.
The NDX (Nasdaq 100) has broken above its double top in Q1 2022 and could easily sweep its Q4 2021 double top next. The index is just 11% away from new ATHs, which it could achieve in 2023.
NASDAQ Final pull back before a Higher High.Nasdaq hit Resistance A (15280) again and so far struggles to break it.
In accordance to three similar such patterns inside this year's Channel Up, the price may now pull back to a new 2 week low near the 1day MA50.
Buy this pull back and target 15500. The 4hour RSI holding its Rising Support, should favor this trade.
If the price closes under the 4hour MA50, sell and target the bottom of the long term Channel Up at 13800.
Previous chart:
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NDX- 3 Possible CountsHello traders!
We are now analizing possible NDX Elliott Wave counts possibilities.
Starting from October's low, price created a leading diagonal (or triple three), labeled as wave W, followed by a double zig zag.
This movement stopped at 15280, declining in a corrective wave and now retracing towards previous top.
This outlines three possibilities:
1.- The whole movement from October's low is a triple three correction in wave (B) to the upside, and now wave (C) is starting towards lower lows. This count will now require an impulsive wave down to break 14200.
2.- The whole movement from october's low is a leading diagonal in wave 1/A, and now a deep retrace is expected, wave A of this retracement should be a flat (3-3-5) , and thus a 5 wave down is expected
3. The whole movement from October's low is the beginning of uptrend resumption, the one labeled in the chart as wave W is a leading diagonal wave 1 and we are currently in wave iv of 3. This will imply either that wave 4 of 3 is finished and we are going for higher highs, or either wave c of iv is about to unfold towards 14300.
In most cases, a 5 wave down to at least 14300 is about to unfold, that's why we opened a short position looking to tp at 14300, sl at 15290
NASDAQ Analysis: Index Is at 1-year High! Is It Sustainable?2020 may well have been the year of the massive rises in the value of stocks of Silicon Valley-based big tech companies, largely because their area of 'tech' is around e-commerce, social networks, online streaming services and internet access.
This new era of what constitutes technology – online services rather than mechanical engineering – means that during 2020, when many governments instigated the closure of shops and workplaces, whole populations were forced to do almost everything online.
The Silicon Valley giants went from strength to strength.
Given the newfound way of life in which everything from groceries to entertainment is just a click away, it would be easy to consider that this band of internet giants would continue to bolster the US stock market.
This was not the case, and parts of 2021 and 2022 represented a period of tech stock volatility. As most technology firms are listed on the NASDAQ exchange in New York, the NASDAQ Composite Index showed a very varied pattern, including a sustained period in which tech stocks were depreciating rapidly.
That may well have been a surprise for many investors, especially during the halo effect that the new Special Purchase Acquisition Company (SPAC) listings were giving to the tech-friendly exchange. At that time, relatively new companies that few people had heard of were suddenly bypassing the majority of entry requirements and listing for valuations of tens of millions of dollars on the NASDAQ exchange.
This fad has now passed, and the NASDAQ Composite Index had lulled for some time.
Today, however, the index begins the trading day at its highest point in an entire year.
Yesterday's close of business resulted in the index reaching 13,816.77, which is a staggering 2,494 points higher than this time last year. During the past three months, the NASDAQ Composite Index has been consistently rising in value, and today's peak is of great interest.
Some of the contributors to this have been Tesla's runaway performance in recent times. Last week alone, Tesla shares were on a roll, and this has likely been a contributor to the NASDAQ's overall high value.
A clear indicator that memories are short is that stocks in some of the banks listed on NASDAQ are up, a factor driven by hard facts and figures, as the dividend announcements had shown that banks were paying higher dividends than the previous accounting session. This is of interest given the banking 'crisis' that was publicised in high-profile news articles earlier this year during the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and some smaller regional banks across the United States, shortly followed by Credit Suisse.
Faith is back in the performance of existing banks, it seems. The question is, for how long? Across the channel in England, there are now widespread reports of banks engaging in the practice of closing the accounts of customers whose views the banks do not approve.
An investigation is being launched, and at a time during which consumer confidence in the commercial banking sector has been dented many times since the 2008/9 financial crisis, caution will likely be the order of the day among investors.
Volatility on one of the world's most prestigious stock exchanges is interesting and, given its recent track record, worth following.
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03072023 - #NDXNDX made a nice up move as per trade plan given last Friday (). Overall, NDX is very bullish the past month with AAPL and NVDA at ATH. Weekly wise also no bearish divergence. What is strong will continue to be strong till it is not.
Likely market would need further upside to call a top. For today, will like to see a dip to the PZ to go long. If market instead just rally higher from current price, would like to look for weakness at above resistance to go short (NDX is strong so will look for shorts in SPX instead).
Do read my plan on SPX to know where I think it will go by EOM.
S&P 500 Favors Breakout. Bears and Recessionists = MisanthropesThe bears enjoyed their cycle to the maximum, peak fear is behind us.
Observe your favorite pundits to determine if they have shifted their perception yet. Many have not, Many remain Bearish and are greedily awaiting one more Deep Indiscriminate Sell Off.... they will likely wait forever.
The first rule of any technology used in a business is that automation applied to an efficient operation will magnify the efficiency. The second is that automation applied to an inefficient operation will magnify the inefficiency.
Long SPX = Long Human Innovation and Business Ingenuity!