24072023 - #DNXNDX continued to be weak while DJIA is what is holding SPX up. Friday's move was much motivated by OPEX. Despite Thursday's strong down, we did not really get the bearish continuation which I was looking for, as market chose to rally first, but that was a low risk short for a move down.
For today, just to keep it simple, looking for a possible up move, rejection for a move lower.
As mentioned in my DAX post, note the level to watch for DAX, as confluence for rejection for the move lower.
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NDX - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹RSI bearish diverges against the price, indicating downward reaction.
🔹Between support 15200 and next resistance 15830.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
NASDAQ Buy after a confirmed MACD Bullish CrossNasdaq crossed under the MA50 (4h) for the first time in 10 days and looks to complete a technical correction inside the long term Channel Up.
There is a Rising Support, marginally over the MA200 (4h) and near the bottom of the Channel Up to consider as buy entry.
However the recent price action has shown that the lower risk buy entries have been after the MACD (4h) made a Bullish Cross.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when the MACD (4h) forms a Bullish Cross.
Targets:
1. 15935 (recent High).
Tips:
1. The index is overbought on the (1w) timeframe so a stronger correction (e.g. MA50 1d) is plausible. Apply tight risk management to your buys.
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21072023 - #NDXAs mentioned yesterday, Wednesday's candle point to a possible reversal candle and we got the follow through. But also as shared in my SPX plan on the divergence between the various indices. Today is OPEX thus price would be much controlled. Fading the extremes would work. Looking for a possible continuation down in European session then an up.
End Game Is Here - 2040 Debt Death Spiral Deadline? Try 2025.Great projections coming out of the government giving us till about 2040 for a complete hyperinflation collapse of the US Dollar system.
2040 is a great year and yes they actually posted this data to the public.
But I'm a little confused why is debt / interest / and markets starting to go parabolic in 2023 and not 2040?
If they say the deadline is 2040, the deadline is 2025.
End Game Is Here --
NDX (Nasdaq 100) Index Analysis 05/01/2021Fundamental Analysis:
As we can see the Index has shown a very strong come back after the Covid-19 pandemic of March 2021 which caused the market to fall and create a panic to the world.
Since then there are lots of changes to the world and the way companies are operating, such as releasing of their premises and offices as they should have discharge lots of their employees and the work from home schemes was the main reason to cut the expenditure of these companies drastically down.
From the other hand, the market administration and governments including Banks has injected lots of funds and so called Rescue Packages and the market stimulant's packages to protect the Market from its Hard and Drastically fall to the lower levels and prevent a gigantic Global Markets Crises.
These funding and injection of the cash to these companies along side of cost and expenditure reduction due to their risk measurement policies, forced these companies to invest the receiving funds in to the companies assets to protect themselves from the Pandemic Crises and hedged their exposed risks instead of investing these funds to the new Projects or renovations which could Couse their Share prices to appreciate intrinsically but instead these investments in the assets made an inflation to the prices of the assets and created a bobble in their share value and Prices without having any inheritance or intrinsic values.
so we can easily have a decision derived from the current situation that there has to be an other market fall and crises soon so the Price and its relevant intrinsic values get converged and market comes to its correct values.
we can observe the same situation in many different centralized markets such as US500 and even other Stock Exchanges around the world like London and rest European market places to be in the same inflated status.
there exist a huge chance of an other Global Market Crises coming soon which has the domino effect and Couse the entire markets to fall for some times .
This fall of the market shall remove off the liquidity from the equity and debt market and streamflow them to some green heaven Asset classes including Gold and silver or even newly invented Technologies such as decentralized markets and Cryptocurrencies and DeFi.
if we have a look at the Current crypto's Total Crypto Market Capitalization we can see it has a very good chances of Rally Continuation to some very high levels such as 5 to 6 Trillion dollars or even much higher.
Total Market Cap of All Cryptocurrencies:
Gold even can see higher Prices such as 2500 USD per ounce which is currently ranging at 1800 USD.
we even can some how speculate a 3 world War to be the initiator of this Market fall which is even not so far from the reality as the situation in middle east is not very stable due to the Iran and Israel disputes and new anti-covid's restriction social movements in Europe and America continent.
we can see the same situation in US500:
DJI:
we shall analyze few other markets and indices and ultimately Propose some Assets which are at their low Points Currently and can be counted as under values at present times.
Technical Analysis:
we have used the Fibonacci trend base extension from the low to the Highest point even before the Covid pandemic to have a better vision of the Higher expansion levels for the post retracement's rallies and identify the Potential Price levels and resistance zones. where the market can show some stagnation and starts its retracement and price correction to the lower levels.
the Fibonacci trend base extension clearly shows that the price has touched the 261.8% which is a very critical point for the price to find its intrinsic values and correct its self by retracing to the lower levels which can be the parallels leg areas of the same Fibonacci extension levels, before its rally to the higher targets.
There exist a Bearish Divergence of Price and MACD where Price has made higher high levels but MACD made lower Highs which is the most significant and strong Bullish Trend Reversal and start of Market fall and Price retracement and Value corrections.
there are total of 2 Targets defined which have a very strong Support tendencies which can be interpreted as the maximum retracements points.
there are few support level are also defined to have a better vision of the bullish trend reversal to bearish retracements which eventually can be counted as the bearish Trend reversal points and new cycle initialization.
20072023 - #NDXNDX was lagging yesterday as it made a new high after DJIA but faltered, forming what looked like a perfect reversal candle on daily. Indeed market opened and sold off 100 pts in a short time but also recovered slightly.
But IMO price action does look bearish for further downside. A possible low risk entry will be to allow a pullback to the PZ for a short down to 15573.
If market instead sell off from here, 15573 will be a good level to look for at least a 100 points bounce.
QQQ The AI-Powered Future: A Bullish Case for Long-Term Options If you haven`t bought the Santa Rally:
or my 2023 forecast:
Then investing in long-term options on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) with a strike price of $420 and an expiration date of 2024-6-21 presents a compelling opportunity for bullish investors.
The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and the ever-growing technology sector is set to ignite the next revolution, propelling QQQ to outperform the S&P 500 and deliver substantial returns, in my opinion.
Now let's explore the factors that make this investment thesis a promising one.
AI-Driven Technological Advancements:
AI is undoubtedly the most transformative technology of our era. It has already revolutionized various industries and continues to penetrate new sectors, creating endless opportunities for innovation and growth. Companies listed on the Nasdaq 100 are at the forefront of AI adoption, leveraging its capabilities to enhance their products, services, and operations. As AI-driven technologies continue to disrupt traditional models and unlock new revenue streams, QQQ's constituent companies are poised to benefit significantly.
Tech Sector Dominance in the Nasdaq 100:
The Nasdaq 100 predominantly comprises technology-focused companies that have demonstrated remarkable growth potential and resilience. With the ongoing global digitization and the increasing demand for technology-based solutions, the Nasdaq 100 is well-positioned to outperform the broader market. As the technology sector continues to flourish, investors can expect these companies to deliver above-average returns over the long term.
I believe QQQ will reach $450 by the end of 2024.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
19072023 - #NDXNDX made further upside yesterday after a fake down below PZ first, hitting the key resistance level. So much so that I want to say that we can pull back from this up, we need further confirmation based on daily price action. Thus will say, we could have pullback to 15700 or so (scalp shorts) and look at that level for a possible move higher.
US100 LongUS100 is forming a nice ascending triangle pattern and looking for continuation on the upside. This could be a good entry to go long with decent Risk:Reward
Entry - 15055
Stop loss - 14900 (I would like to see a 2hr close below this level to close the position)
First Target - 15200
Second Target - 15500
Final Target - 15800
Please let me know your thoughts. Thank you
NASDAQ: Approaching Target 1. Pullback and buy for the 2nd.Nasdaq maintains the four month Channel Up and despite the technically overbought 1D timeframe (RSI = 72.574, MACD = 282.680, ADX = 39.484) it shows no signs of pulling back. We will make the most out of this very aggressive trend. Our target from the previous analysis remains near the R2 (TP1 = 16,000) and after a pullback as on May 24th, we will buy again and target the R3 (TP2 = 16,690).
We will stop buying the pullbacks after both of the following conditions are met: the price crosses under the 4H MA50 and the 1D RSI under its HL trendline.
Prior idea:
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Nasdaq going for ATH Nasdaq has exhibited remarkable strength throughout this year, showing relentless momentum that seems unstoppable in its ascent to reach its all-time high. Following its recent breakout above the 15,500 level, the price is expected to target the range of 16,200-16,300, before eventually surpassing it to test the all-time high at 16,700. NFA
TSLA's bull-flag breakout meets the VWAP anchored to its ATHPrimary Chart: Daily chart of NASDAQ:TSLA with anchored-VWAP from Nov. 2021 all-time high
Different stocks tend to have unique price characteristics. Some move timidly, others move boldly. Some are volatile, some are tame. Some some make predictable moves in incremental steps, and others whipsaw around before crashing higher or lower.
NASDAQ:TSLA is anything but timid. It's price action tends to be the bold and volatile. And it has no problem faking out directionally bullish or bearish traders—and it may often even take a few non-directional premium sellers down with it as well. Just look at the chart from its pandemic 2020 lows, Supplementary Chart A. Rallies are spectacular, eye-popping, and unbelievable. Declines are precipitous and devastating. Dabbling in TSLA stock, with or without leverage, or its options is not for the faint hearted, requiring traders to be both nimble and expert risk managers.
Supplementary Chart A
Just a few days ago on May 30, 2023, TSLA broke out of an apparent bull-flag pattern. A bull-flag pattern is a consolidative pattern that interrupts a rally. Conversely, a bear-flag pattern—not the case here—is also a consolidative pattern that interrupts a decline. Bull flags take the shape of a narrow range where trading peaks and valleys form a parallel channel with the downtrend line at the upper bound and the return line at the lower bound.
When confirmed, flags tend to be a continuation pattern and involve a breakout in the direction of the (short-term or long-term) trend that led to the flag. The length of the trend leading to the flag gives a hint at its significance.
This flag breakout gave traders little time to catch it. Even the retest didn't even fall all the way back to touch the bull-flag channel, making only a perfunctory attempt, a feint perhaps, at touching the flag channels upper trendline. See Supplementary Chart B.1 below. The breakout made some technical sense given that TSLA's price had found support or recovered its VWAPs anchored to recent swing highs and lows from January 2023 and March 2023 as shown in Supplementary Chart B.2.
Supplementary Chart B.1
Supplementary Chart B.2
But now, TSLA has run straight into its anchored VWAP from its all-time high in November 2021. See Supplementary Chart C.1. This is a critical level to watch. The Primary Chart also shows this VWAP going back to the all-time high, and it reveals how this anchored VWAP has been resistance. Because NASDAQ:TSLA is prone to false breaks and whipsaws—see the April 2022 highs and the August 2022 highs as examples—it is not surprising that TSLA has tended to break above this critical VWAP several times toward the end of its bear rallies only to fail after trapping a bunch of bulls. At the August 2022 highs for TSLA, it broke above and below this VWAP repeatedly, trapping bears and bulls several times.
So it may be reasonable to expect trappy price moves around this multi-year VWAP again this time before a reliable direction becomes more apparent. This will be important to monitor. Many traders and investors have developed a narrative that has convinced them one way or the other. And at the end of the day, many may lose, although this author wishes only the best of luck to every reader who trades TSLA (shorts and longs). Even the ones who are correct as to the ultimate direction months from now may get stopped as price traps around this level.
Supplementary Chart C.1
If TSLA can break and hold above its ATH anchored VWAP, then perhaps it can reach its 50% retracement at $258, shown in green on Supplementary Chart D below. Note that Supplementary Chart D contains the Fibonacci levels covering TSLA's entire bear decline from its November 2021 all-time high. This coincides with a gap that may draw price to $262, which is just above that retracement level. And a key resistance area from September 2022 lows lies at $265. Decisive closes above this VWAP may bode well for short-term traders to target this $258-$265 zone.
Supplementary Chart D
For those who find themselves very attached to a security or crypto (including TSLA)—meaning essentially unable to part with it to the point of ignoring risk management—please consider that the yield curves remain deeply inverted.
Since this yield-curve post was published back in late November 2022, the 10y/3m yield curve has inverted even more deeply into negative territory. TradingView's yield charts don't go back far enough, but for all the data shown by TV, the inversion is a record. Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab posted a chart in January 2023 showing that it was the deepest inversion since 1981, which in January meant that this segment of the curve had reached a 42 year record inversion!
Other widely followed yield-curve inversions have fallen into record inversion territory as well. But this may not preclude TSLA from rallying hard similar to the way AAPL and NVDA have done. On the other hand, TSLA may be late to the party if the party decides to end soon. No one knows, but traders can watch how price interacts with key levels, which provides more information than the best macro analyst on the planet.
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Nasdaq -> New All Time Highs Before 2024Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Nas100 💪
After the Nasdaq perfectly retested the monthly 0.618 fibonacci retracement, previous monthly support and also broke above a clear bearish trendline, we had a solid rally of roughly 20%.
With the Nasdaq now retesting the next weekly resistance at the $15570 level I do expect a short term rejection again away from the resistance and considering the overextended weekly timeframe, this scenario becomes even more likely.
The daily timeframe however is still super bullish - the Nasdaq just broke out of an ascending triangle formation so I will definitely need some shift back to a bearish market before I then do expect a short term daily drop.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint 📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ: TIME TO SELLNASDAQ - BEARISH INTERNAL CYCLE
Price it's on Panic Area (-0.382 - 0.00%) from Bearish Internal Cycle
I Suggest open SELL positions / take profits from bought stocks listed on Nasdaq at current price
- SL: ABOVE PANIC LIMIT AREA (17094.04)
- TP 1: 12849.15 - 12231.24 (50-61 %)
- TP 2: 10442.74 (100 %)
ADDITIONAL CONFIRMATIONS:
-APPLE Stock on same situation.
NASDAQ - INMINENT SELL OFFNASDAQ - BEARISH INTERNAL CYCLE
Price it's on Panic Area (-0.382 - 0.00%) from Bearish Internal Cycle
I Suggest open SELL positions / take profits from bought stocks listed on Nasdaq at current price
- SL: ABOVE PANIC LIMIT AREA (17094.04)
- TP 1: 12849.15 - 12231.24 (50-61 %)
- TP 2: 10442.74 (100 %)
ADDITIONAL CONFIRMATIONS:
-APPLE Stock on same situation.
NASDAQ The All Time High is the only target left now.Nasdaq / US100 continues to trade inside a Channel Up pattern in the last 6 months.
The price is now comfortably above Resistance A and the only Resistance level that's left to challenge the trend is the All Time High at 16790.
The last two rallies achieved runs of 13.40%-13.80%.
As long as the 1day MA50 supports, keep buying, since also the 1day RSI is supported by a Rising trendline.
Target 16700.
Previous chart:
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US100 Long U.S. Debt Deal Optimism Boosts SentimentI have marked the Bullish Bearish scenarios of the next 2 weeks(Possible Potential Long)
Green Bullish
Golden Cross
High Bullish Volume
Technically: HH HL
Donchian Long
June S&P 500 futures
ESM2023
are trending up +0.18% this morning as market participants weighed the latest updates on negotiations in Washington to reach a debt-ceiling deal while awaiting a key speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
In Thursday’s trading session, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notched a 1-year high, boosted by gains in chip stocks and a more than +9% jump in Netflix Inc
NFLX
after the streaming giant said its recently launched ad-supported tier reached about 5 million active users per month. Also, the benchmark S&P 500 rose to a 9-month high, helped in part by an over +11% surge in Take-Two Interactive Software Inc
TTWO
after the company reported above-consensus Q4 net bookings. In addition, Walmart Inc
WMT
rose more than +1% after the retail giant reported upbeat Q1 results and raised its full-year guidance, helping keep the blue-chip Dow in positive territory.
NASDAQ Resistance break-out, buy signal targeting 15900.On our last Nasdaq (NDX) call (see chart below), we took a short-term buy after a bullish break-out above a key Fibonacci level:
The index made an even more critical break-out yesterday, as it broke above Resistance 1 (15285) which had in the last 30 days two clear rejections (June 16, July 05). This is a technical bullish break-out signal, on a 1D RSI above its MA and the price on a rise after getting close to the Channel Up pattern from the start of the year. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting the majority of this strong uptrend in the past 4 months.
The upside potential extends as high as Resistance 2 (January 04 2022 High) at 16570 but we will pursue a more modest target. The minimum on the previous bottom rebound was the Fibonacci 2.0 extension. As a result, we are buying this break-out and target 15900.
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$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT all pumping but giving back, what now?DJ:DJI is having hard time here, again.
The RSI is much lower, negative divergence, steam running out?
NASDAQ:NDX is higher but also losing steam, RSI lower.
SP:SPX AMEX:RSP & AMEX:IWM all put higher highs but they're also giving back.
All the #indices have low volume. Kind of normal for this time of year.
TVC:VIX is lower.......
Sell on news?
Lots of GAINS over past few months.
Hmmm, let's see what transpires by end of day.
#stocks
NASDAQ Short term sell on the MA50 (4h).Nasdaq is testing the MA50 (4h) as the short term Resistance.
Ahead of Wednesday's U.S. CPI any short term estimate can be invalidated by the usual high volatility but technically, as long as that level holds, it justifies the completion of a Channel Down same as June 15th-26th.
The long term pattern remains a Channel Up, so any pull back is a long term buy opportunity as long as the MA50 (1d) holds.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy at the bottom of the Channel Up.
3. Sell if Support (1) breaks.
Targets:
1. 14850 (expected contact with the MA200 4h).
2. 15450 (+4% rise as previous rebound).
3. 14550 (expected contact with the MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) has offered the ideal sell on its 70.00 overbought level and the ideal buy near its 30.00 oversold level. Use it as an additional indicator.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan: