NASDAQ Can cross above 2 Channels and reach 15100 now.Nasdaq has been trading inside two Channel Up patterns, one on the medium and one on the long term, which we've outlined in all recent ideas.
The current bullish wave has identical measures with those of the 2nd part of March and 2nd part of January.
It is highly probable with the current buying momentum to seek and complete this impulse and break over both Channel Up patterns.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 15100 (Fibonacci 1.618 level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) has formed a Double Top on a clear 76.55 Resistance. If it reaches that level before the price hits 15100, close the trade on whatever profit you have made.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
NASDAQ 100 CFD
SPX Weekly Outlook: Week ending Jun 16We have monthly OpEx this week and futures contract rollover. Options are pointing to a move down to 4250 on SPX first and then based on CPI and PPI, a potential dump to 4150 or a ramp to 4400.
Expect a 125pt move from 4300 above/below. Flip point would be 4290-4310 , can treat that as no mans land.
NDX - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]🔹NDX shows strong development within a rising trend channel in the long term.
🔹NDX has risen strongly since the positive signal from the DOUBLE BOTTOM formation at the break through resistance at 12042.
🔹NDX has support at 13000 and resistance at 16500.
🔹Overall assessed as technically positive for the long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
NASDAQ: Bullish as long as the 4H MA100 holds.Nasdaq is having a standard technical pull back turning the 4H time frame neutral (RSI = 52.452, MACD = -2.890, ADX = 30.912) but the 1D remains bullish as since March 13th, the index has been trading inside a Channel Up pattern.
As the chart shows, every crossing under the 4H MA50 has been a buy signal (2 times) unless when the 4H MA100 broke as well, in which case the downtrend was extended to the 4H MA200 (2 times also). The 4H RSI has a clear Buy Zone and it just bounced on it, so we're already bullish (TP = 14,950). If though the 4H MA100 breaks, we will open a short term sell as well, targeting the bottom of the Channel Up (TP = 14,000), where upon contact with the 4H MA200 we will add a 2nd buy.
Prior idea:
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$RSP & $RUT show money is in rotationAMEX:RSP looks okay to me (Equal weight SP:SPX )
TVC:RUT / AMEX:IWM also looks okay
Question:
What is the common theme?
HEAVY VOLUME!!!
Buys are heavier than normal for those 2 indices and NASDAQ:NDX / NASDAQ:QQQ has selling that's lil heavier than normal
Looks like rotation IMO
Our calls were on the money again...
#stocks
NASDAQ starting a short term correction.Nasdaq got rejected near the top of the 6 month Channel Up.
The narrower Channel Up however made an exact Higher High and the rejection today is a natural technical consequence.
This is most likely starting the 3rd correction wave.
Each wave has been less aggressive than the previous.
The breaking under the 4hour MA50 is the sell confirmation. Target the bottom of the short term Channel Up and the 4hour MA200.
Buy on the 4hour MA200 and target 15280 (Resistance A, High of March 29th 2022).
Previous chart:
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$RSP & $RUT performing well, money moving to underperformers Breadth has gotten better compared to last week
AMEX:RSP vs AMEX:SPY - Equal weight has outperformed
TVC:RUT Russell 2k pumping as well, our call on break looking good
NASDAQ:NDX looks to have short term topped - most flyers here
DJ:DJI hanging on - underperforming assets could be prepping to move
💵 could be moving from high flyers, it seems
NASDAQ RESPECTING H&S?NASDAQ Has formed a beautiful H&S pattern - yesterday we maximised the buy positions on the base, with rejection at the S Resistance we can possibly see the pattern playout - I would like a retest on the S resistance before taking shorts and then selling down to the base and then the main target at 14416.
If price breaks S resistance then we can see Nasdaq Matching the head and potentially move over to our main POI bing 14704.
Is the lagging S&P500 a better buy option than Nasdaq?Nasdaq's (NDX) incredible run (left chart) since the start of the year (+37%) has seen the index break above the Last Lower High of the Bear Cycle (13730) while at the same time avoiding a Death Cross on the 1W time-frame in epic fashion. It even broke above the RSI Resistance of the price's ATH (when the index was on its All Time High).
At the same time, the S&P500 (SPX) is obviously lagging behind (right chart) as not only the RSI is below its ATH Resistance but the index itself is only now approaching the Last Lower High of the Bear Cycle.
The question is, can the S&P500 be a better buy opportunity than Nasdaq since it is underperforming. Well being overperforming doesn't necessarily mean that Nasdaq is overvalued. Investors clearly thought at the start of the year that the technology sector would fuel the economy out of the 2022 inflationary Bear Cycle. However, it is also clear that the S&P has three target ahead of it (Last Lower High, First Lower High of Bear Cycle and the ATH), while Nasdaq two. In % terms, a ATH hit for the S&P500 from the current level would be a +12% rise, while for Nasdaq a 14.50% rise. Not that big of a difference on long-term terms and that has a lot to do with the fact that Nasdaq declined more that -37% during the 2022 Bear Cycle, while the S&P500 -27%. As a result, any buy between the two would be justified, even though a good pull-back on NDX would be more appealing to buy and couldn't be overlooked.
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NDX possible 5-wave impulseSimilar to my SPX idea, the NDX seems to be forming a 5-wave impulse off the back of the AI enthusiasm. I expect a bullish pullback to pull the index lower towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $14,000 which will flip from a resistance to a support. A break below $14,000 will allow the index to slide into the support range between $13,500 and $13,700. A break below the 50-day MA currently at $13,330 will invalidate the 5-wave impulse.
In terms of technical indicators, the daily RSI is heavily overbought which supports the notion of a pullback towards the support range. The daily MACD is holding a strong buy signal, but it is showing signs of rolling over.
NDX fantastic short opportunityI have to admit, most, if not all, Elliott Wavers were shot in the head this year with the rising market. Personally, I was caught off guard by the strong upmove too. For any EW and macro speculator, the upmove in 2023 don't make sense. It is irrational. In fact, it could be irrational exuberance again. But as time passes, the truth starts to unfold: the market capitalisation weighted indices were really being upheld by a few names. The rest were really flat or down. What this means is that the market breadth is not there for this rally. And this is something that is peculiar to this market because of the high market cap of a handful of companies. I don't think the original creator of the index thought that this could happen, but it did.
Nevertheless, I would admit that this is really another bold attempt to call a market top (or really, a correction top).
Disregarding EW technique which is either hated or loved, just look at the risk-reward for this trade. It doesn't make sense to go long, if this is the only rationale a trader needs to decide which side to trade on.
Good luck!
nasdaq updateI was really waiting for the market to go from the minimum numbers to the correction of the E wave, but this wave has reached its maximum numbers, which shows that the next correction wave is more time-consuming, but there is great power in the next upward wave.
I think this week we will see maximum numbers in the index and there is at least 3 months of correction ahead. Although there is a high probability this will be
Continue until the end of 2023
Nasdaq -> What A Short SqueezeHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis.
On the weekly timeframe you can see that over the past couple of weeks, the Nasdaq had an insane rally towards the upside of roughly 25% and is now approaching weekly resistance.
Considering the fact that the overall trend is still very bullish I just do expect a short term rejection away from the $14.800 resistance area and then I definitely do expect the continuation of the bullrun.
On the daily timeframe you can see that market structure is still very bullish, there is still no sign of the Nasdaq slowing down yet, so there could be the possibility that we will see more continuation towards the upside to then retest the next major previous daily resistance at the $15.200 level before we will then see a short term drop.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ One last bullish leg possible before exhaustion.Nasdaq (NDX) easily hit the 14350 Target that we called on our last analysis (see chart below) 10 days ago:
The price even broke above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the All Time Highs and hit the top of the March 13 Channel Up. However there is still some room left before hitting the top of the long-term Channel Up that started after the January 06 market bottom.
A pattern that supports this argument is the 1D RSI that is trading on Higher Highs similar to January 26 2023 and August 03 2022. Those was the last phase before the final Higher High that exhausted the trend and started a correction. As a result we will pursue one final upside target at 15000 and then most likely we will see a pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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$DJI leading, 1st time in long time, What about breadth? $RSPIs value coming back into play in the #stockmarket?
The NASDAQ:NDX does seem a lil over extended
Today is the1st day in LONG TIME that the DJ:DJI is leading and the RSI looks healthy
SP:SPX is over the 50% Fibonacci
AMEX:RSP (Equal weight #SPX) has chance to perform here
Let's see if the breadth of #stocks gets better
NASDAQ May be entering a short term correction waveNasdaq / NDX / US100 is near the top of the 6 month Channel Up.
Since the middle of that pattern, it started to form a narrower Channel Up.
So far we have had 3 correction waves inside the larger Channel Up, each less aggressive than the previous.
The 1day RSI is forming a Rising Resistance pattern same with the previous in February 2nd that priced the peak of the Channel Up.
Sell if the RSI crosses under its MA line.
Buy a little over the 1day MA50. Target 15280 (Resistance A, High of March 29th 2022).
Previous chart:
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Yields are diverging from SHORT TERM $TNX6 Month is still pumping & more overbought.
This is the only one still moving higher atm.
Serious divergence!
1Y surpassed the #bank collapse highs .
2Yr Stopped 50bps away from highs.
10Yr forming lower highs (the top was put in LAST YEAR), down channel & the long trend has been broken.
Elliott Wave Forecasts Nasdaq (NQ) to Continue HigherShort term Elliott Wave View in Nasdaq (NQ) suggests the rally from 4.26.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse with extension (nest). Up from 4.26.2023 low, wave ((i)) ended at 13370.25 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 13001.75. Wave ((iii)) is currently in progress with internal subdivision as another 5 waves in lesser degree. The 1-hour chart below shows the rally within wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 13494.25 and dips in wave ii ended at 13310.50. Wave iii ended at 13960.25, wave iv ended at 13794.25, and final wave v ended at 13979.25 which completed wave (i). Index then pullback in wave (ii) which ended at 13563.60.
The Index extended higher again in wave (iii) towards 14570 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 14336.75. Expect Index to extend higher in wave (v) to complete wave ((iii)). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from 5.4.2023 low before the Index resumes higher again. Wave ((iv)) typically ends at 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave ((iii)). The target can be measured after wave ((iii)) is confirmed complete. Near term, as far as pivot at 13563.6 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
NASDAQ There is still room to riseNasdaq has been on an incredible rise since March 24th after hitting the MA50 (4h).
The MACD pattern is trading on the same sequence as the March 7th-17th and January 12th-27th patterns that led to new Highs on the 1.618 Fibonacci.
The long term pattern remains a Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 15100 (marginally under the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and the 15285 High of March 29th 2022).
Tips:
1. There is a secondary Channel Up (dots) since March 13th. This may lead Nasdaq to a smoother (and lengthier) rise to 15100.
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Notes:
Past trading plan: