NDX possible 5-wave impulseSimilar to my SPX idea, the NDX seems to be forming a 5-wave impulse off the back of the AI enthusiasm. I expect a bullish pullback to pull the index lower towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $14,000 which will flip from a resistance to a support. A break below $14,000 will allow the index to slide into the support range between $13,500 and $13,700. A break below the 50-day MA currently at $13,330 will invalidate the 5-wave impulse.
In terms of technical indicators, the daily RSI is heavily overbought which supports the notion of a pullback towards the support range. The daily MACD is holding a strong buy signal, but it is showing signs of rolling over.
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NDX fantastic short opportunityI have to admit, most, if not all, Elliott Wavers were shot in the head this year with the rising market. Personally, I was caught off guard by the strong upmove too. For any EW and macro speculator, the upmove in 2023 don't make sense. It is irrational. In fact, it could be irrational exuberance again. But as time passes, the truth starts to unfold: the market capitalisation weighted indices were really being upheld by a few names. The rest were really flat or down. What this means is that the market breadth is not there for this rally. And this is something that is peculiar to this market because of the high market cap of a handful of companies. I don't think the original creator of the index thought that this could happen, but it did.
Nevertheless, I would admit that this is really another bold attempt to call a market top (or really, a correction top).
Disregarding EW technique which is either hated or loved, just look at the risk-reward for this trade. It doesn't make sense to go long, if this is the only rationale a trader needs to decide which side to trade on.
Good luck!
nasdaq updateI was really waiting for the market to go from the minimum numbers to the correction of the E wave, but this wave has reached its maximum numbers, which shows that the next correction wave is more time-consuming, but there is great power in the next upward wave.
I think this week we will see maximum numbers in the index and there is at least 3 months of correction ahead. Although there is a high probability this will be
Continue until the end of 2023
Nasdaq -> What A Short SqueezeHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis.
On the weekly timeframe you can see that over the past couple of weeks, the Nasdaq had an insane rally towards the upside of roughly 25% and is now approaching weekly resistance.
Considering the fact that the overall trend is still very bullish I just do expect a short term rejection away from the $14.800 resistance area and then I definitely do expect the continuation of the bullrun.
On the daily timeframe you can see that market structure is still very bullish, there is still no sign of the Nasdaq slowing down yet, so there could be the possibility that we will see more continuation towards the upside to then retest the next major previous daily resistance at the $15.200 level before we will then see a short term drop.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ One last bullish leg possible before exhaustion.Nasdaq (NDX) easily hit the 14350 Target that we called on our last analysis (see chart below) 10 days ago:
The price even broke above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the All Time Highs and hit the top of the March 13 Channel Up. However there is still some room left before hitting the top of the long-term Channel Up that started after the January 06 market bottom.
A pattern that supports this argument is the 1D RSI that is trading on Higher Highs similar to January 26 2023 and August 03 2022. Those was the last phase before the final Higher High that exhausted the trend and started a correction. As a result we will pursue one final upside target at 15000 and then most likely we will see a pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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$DJI leading, 1st time in long time, What about breadth? $RSPIs value coming back into play in the #stockmarket?
The NASDAQ:NDX does seem a lil over extended
Today is the1st day in LONG TIME that the DJ:DJI is leading and the RSI looks healthy
SP:SPX is over the 50% Fibonacci
AMEX:RSP (Equal weight #SPX) has chance to perform here
Let's see if the breadth of #stocks gets better
NASDAQ May be entering a short term correction waveNasdaq / NDX / US100 is near the top of the 6 month Channel Up.
Since the middle of that pattern, it started to form a narrower Channel Up.
So far we have had 3 correction waves inside the larger Channel Up, each less aggressive than the previous.
The 1day RSI is forming a Rising Resistance pattern same with the previous in February 2nd that priced the peak of the Channel Up.
Sell if the RSI crosses under its MA line.
Buy a little over the 1day MA50. Target 15280 (Resistance A, High of March 29th 2022).
Previous chart:
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Yields are diverging from SHORT TERM $TNX6 Month is still pumping & more overbought.
This is the only one still moving higher atm.
Serious divergence!
1Y surpassed the #bank collapse highs .
2Yr Stopped 50bps away from highs.
10Yr forming lower highs (the top was put in LAST YEAR), down channel & the long trend has been broken.
Elliott Wave Forecasts Nasdaq (NQ) to Continue HigherShort term Elliott Wave View in Nasdaq (NQ) suggests the rally from 4.26.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse with extension (nest). Up from 4.26.2023 low, wave ((i)) ended at 13370.25 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 13001.75. Wave ((iii)) is currently in progress with internal subdivision as another 5 waves in lesser degree. The 1-hour chart below shows the rally within wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 13494.25 and dips in wave ii ended at 13310.50. Wave iii ended at 13960.25, wave iv ended at 13794.25, and final wave v ended at 13979.25 which completed wave (i). Index then pullback in wave (ii) which ended at 13563.60.
The Index extended higher again in wave (iii) towards 14570 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 14336.75. Expect Index to extend higher in wave (v) to complete wave ((iii)). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from 5.4.2023 low before the Index resumes higher again. Wave ((iv)) typically ends at 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave ((iii)). The target can be measured after wave ((iii)) is confirmed complete. Near term, as far as pivot at 13563.6 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
NASDAQ There is still room to riseNasdaq has been on an incredible rise since March 24th after hitting the MA50 (4h).
The MACD pattern is trading on the same sequence as the March 7th-17th and January 12th-27th patterns that led to new Highs on the 1.618 Fibonacci.
The long term pattern remains a Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 15100 (marginally under the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and the 15285 High of March 29th 2022).
Tips:
1. There is a secondary Channel Up (dots) since March 13th. This may lead Nasdaq to a smoother (and lengthier) rise to 15100.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
NASDAQ: Overbought and in need of a technical pull-back.Nasdaq hit the 1.236 Fibonacci extension which was our target on the last call we gave and has turned overbought on the 1D time frame (RSI = 71.555, MACD = 292.250, ADX = 40.204). We are expecting a pull back to at least the 1D MA50 and the HL trend line. The most optimal buy signal will be when the 1D RSI touches its HL trend line. Next long term target is R1 and the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (TP = 15,300).
Prior idea:
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Stocks bull-run? Not so sure xD
#stocks
Everyone is currently awaiting the approval of the US national debt increase and, for some reason, they think it's very bullish. But why isn't it? The S&P index is essentially stagnant, while the Nasdaq is growing. However, this growth is driven by the seven giants, and if they are removed from the list, the Nasdaq has only grown by about 1% since the beginning of the year.
Are there any positive economic factors within the US economy? No, even the Federal Reserve is considering continuing the rate hike.
Now let's take a look at what happened in previous instances of US debt increase.
On December 16, 2021, it increased by $2.5 trillion, essentially marking the peak of the trend and the beginning of the current downward movement, which resulted in a 36% decline.
On May 19, 2019, there was a downward movement of 9%.
On May 19, 2013, it went down by 7.5%.
On August 8, 2011, it rapidly declined by 13%.
These are not all instances; there are many more dates. So why should the market continue to rise now? In my opinion, it's simply a short squeeze or a bull trap, and a downward movement in the market will follow.
Even from a technical analysis perspective, the Nasdaq has completed a correction to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. They might push it up a bit more to eliminate short positions and then comfortably head towards a test of 10-11k or until the economy regains its composure and the Fed reins in inflation.
NDX - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]🔹NDX shows strong development within a rising trend channel in the medium long term.
🔹ND has risen strongly since the positive signal from the double bottom formation at the break through resistance at 12042.
🔹There is no resistance in the price chart and further rise is indicated.
🔹RSI is above 70 after a good price increase the past weeks.
🔹High RSI may be a sign that the stock is overbought and that there is a chance of a reaction downwards.
🔹Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
NQ - W Set upNQ - W Set up
Double bottom set up, as long as it stays above 11400/500 areas as support. We are at current resistance that has been tested multiple times break above 12 1/2 I expect 13 1/2 and perhaps 14200/300 areas.
We did have FOMC and nothing new has been changed imo rate hikes continue..
Key tip: Higher time frame, less emotional attachment
Enjoy,
Trade Journal
Nasdaq -> Massively Bullish RallyHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that nas100 is actually approaching a quite obvious previous weekly structure area which is now acting as resistance at the $15.000 level.
You can also see that over the past couple of weeks, nas100 had a massively bullish rally and we are now a little bit overextended towards the upside, so I am now just waiting for a deeper push into the zone and then I do expect a short term rejection towards the downside.
On the daily timeframe you can also see that we are just rallying towards the upside without any correction, so I am now just waiting for some bearish rejection before I then do expect a short term drop also on the daily timeframe.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
so much for new perspectives 🤣complete failure of proposed idea 🤣 Ongoing anal: until ES/SPX breaks out above 4300 and holds, I expect that we get more of the same: Tech and Semis, insomuch as they relate to AI, headed higher, while the rest of the market lags. However, there are hints of signs that the market wants to challenge the status quo and move higher, but more work is to be done.... BoLTA