nasdaq 🌊Greetings,
A mirror to my tableau painted for Bitcoin,
I surmise that the Nasdaq is engaged in the theatrical rendition of a cycle degree fourth wave.
Historically,
these fourth waves are prone to a tactical withdrawal into the realm of the prior degree wave four territory.
In this distinct instance, the territory in question lurks in close proximity to the abysmal pits of the pandemic nadir.
A bullish harbinger would manifest should the Nasdaq maintain an altitude above these pandemic depths for the duration of this bear market.
If such a trend is confirmed, i will dare to anticipate an audacious ascent to the lofty summit of $30,000 as we voyage through the decade towards the 2030 agi revolution.
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w4 - $8,100
w5 - $30,000
☿
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ On a strong Channel Up eyeing 14400.Nasdaq / US100 is rising following a rebound on the 4hour MA50.
The pattern is a Channel Up with the 4hour MA200 the medium term Support since March 16th.
This rally can complete a +13.40% rise if it follows the March 13th - April 4th bullish wave.
Buy on the spot and target 14400.
Previous chart:
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Still intermediate bullish $NDXWe turned bullish last year mid October. We've turned short term bear every so often but have maintained the LONGER TERM Cautious bull narrative for some time.
IMO buy the dips is still working.
#NDX looking to open @ 2023 high
IMO we still have more upside
Debt ceiling ya ya ya (MARKETS ARE IRRATIONAL)
HOWEVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
On a WEEKLY basis:
We can sell off nicely & STILL be in upswing!!!
Downside moment has come for US indexes?Hello Traders,
In our previous posts,linked in the description, we've been tracking the last zig-zag of this primary wave (B) as it ascends. Our calculated completion targets fall within the yellow area, coinciding with the bullish descending broadening wedge targets, as well as the point where Y equals Z. This symmetry between the two most recent zig-zags in this corrective wave has informed our decision to set our longs at 13800 and initiate short positions at 13863, anticipating the advent of wave (C) and a potential move towards lower lows.
But the price action and chart patterns integral to our proposed count are just pieces of the larger picture. Several other indicators also support the potential scenario we've described.
Interestingly, over recent months, we've observed an unusual market behavior. The market has been ascending, despite a dominant narrative of impending recession and rate hikes—factors that typically instill bearish sentiment in retail traders. This resilience of the market is even more noteworthy when we consider its divergence from the Money Supply M2. Historically, the stock market has acted as an oscillator of the Money Supply M2.
It's crucial that we view this resilience of the market as a potential strategy to mislead retail traders. When the narrative was bearish, the market not only held its ground but thrived, possibly catching many retail traders off-guard.
Adding another layer to our analysis, let's consider the US 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y). It's currently forming a bullish flag pattern, a positive signal that could potentially lead to higher yields. If this pattern confirms, it would be consistent with lower lows on indexes
In our upcoming posts, we'll explore these dynamics and their potential impact on market trends in the short to medium term. We'll also discuss what they mean for our trading positions. We keep in mind that FOMC today can be a good trigger for accelleration to the downside, but another wave up towards 14200 is still a concrete possibility.
Stay tuned for more updates, and trade safely in this volatile environment.
Bests
GMR
25052023 - $NDXNDX made a huge recovery after the initial sell off, hitting the weekly BZ and rebounded; I would say the initial up was technical, price is oversold at BB extremes but the subsequent rally was due to NDVA. Price is now supported by the BZ and PZ at the same prices thus a double support.
TBH, I thought the rally was rubbish but price action is looking bullish now. I did say that I am not convinced of the rally; thus it would either be a case of NDX strength supporting the other indices, or NDX to falter and bringing SPX down with it.
The location of such a bullish candle is uncommon to say the least, but I would say that to SPX/DJIA would be better candidates to go short from, while using NDX as reference.
😀 SVB Crisis Is Over?! What S&P500 and VIX Are Talking AboutThe stock market just flashed the first sign that investors think the Silicon Valley Bank crisis is over.
👉 The CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed below the 20 level on Wednesday, for the first time since SVB - The Silicon Valley Bank collapsed.
That is basically could be a constructive sign and is certainly counter to the general gloom of investors post SVB-failure.
👉 The VIX term structure is also back into normal contango. This normalization of spread is often a sign investors see the worst of the crisis behind.
The lower chart illustrates 3-months futures spread between VXN2023 a July, 2023 VIX Futures contract and the nearest - VXJ2023 - April, 2023 VIX Futures contract, that is three months ahead of that, marking that the reddish days are over.
👉 S&P500 Technical picture indicates the breakdown of reversed Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern structure is happening.
SPX is above weekly SMA (200) as it got the support early on Q4'22. 52-weeks simple moving average is trying to hold on above, for the 12th year in a row.
👉 If investors expect an imminent financial crisis but one doesn't materialize, the change in sentiment will help drive stocks higher as investors unwind bearish positions and get more bullish .
All-in, with stocks higher over the past six months since the mid-October low, so further upside could be ahead. If stocks do not make a new low post this crisis, the bears could capitulate.
NASDAQ to infinity and beyondYou are looking at the 1h chart of the NDQ.
Based on my EWC it looks like this pullback is just another bullish retracement which could find support.
We started pulling back after reaching 1.618 (iii) vs. (i) which is the most common fibonacci target for third waves.
Questions are ALWAYS welcome, trade safe!
Weekly Update: The Triangle Count was Invalidated, Now What?Since the December lows of 3788 ES, I have been tracking a triangle pattern that would have reconciled higher in my target box for a larger B-wave. Readers can look at previous postings to see what I have been forecasting. Last week, SPX Futures breached the 4208.50 level. So, with that, the final micro target of an e-wave was invalidated and thus the triangle count abandoned.
With respect to a triangle pattern, two topics I continue to share with my members in our trading room is (1) Triangles are rare patterns, and (2) they typically invalidate between the D and the E wave, only to reveal a much simpler pattern. Yes, it is true price patterns can become complex when in the midst of a counter trend corrective rally or decline. However, I tend to keep my labeling simple rather than defaulting to the complex as many of these patterns tend to be viewed as simple zig zags in the rear-view mirror. That is what we have been presented with now that price has invalidated the more complex triangle pattern as featured above.
Here's where things get tricky.
For the Elliott Wave uninitiated, after an A and B waves you get…” Wait for it” …a C wave. Anyone who follows or practices Elliott Wave Analysis would agree when I say that a C-wave feels like a Crash when the reconciliation is to the downside, or a parabolic move when the trend is up. If you wish to challenge that my determination of that feel free to post your comments below.
I will admit in the short term, there appears to be some work to do to the upside for our A wave to equal our C wave higher. But here’s the most important piece of information I share with you today. With the breach of 4208.50 last week, I now have the minimum waves in place to consider this counter trend rally complete. However, as of the time of my authoring this weekly update, I have no immediate information that our upside pattern is complete. Let’s discuss what I expect now, and what clues we will see before such a “Crash Event” lower is underway.
My Expectation:
Let me start with the mathematical sweet spot for the counter trend price action to complete and reverse from. That price point is the .618% Fibonacci retracement level up at 4309.50. That would mean we have about only about 2.8% upside left to go from current levels.
However, the reasonable target area higher (above the .618% level at 4309.50) could extend at maximum to the price area of 4529. That is the .786% retracement level. In fact, prior to that level, price would have to exceed the 1.0 extension level higher at 4517. So, let’s assume that everything goes right with the Fed, Inflation, the Jobs Market, and Not to mention the debt ceiling…4529 would be the statistical anomaly for higher price action.
So, what’s my expectation higher: Provided we do not breach 4062.25 then I think it’s reasonable to expect 4309.50. Below 4062.50 and the possibility we are in our C-wave down to NEW LOWS, starts to get higher.
Disclaimer: If you have gotten this far in this post then you have read all of the above. Many of the comments I receive here on TradingView...are from people who scan my posts...but have a lot to comment on...al of which I address within the context of my posts.
Just like trading...reading is hard.
Best to all,
Chris
NDX Will Go Higher From Support! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for NDX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 13844.86.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 14610.61 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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NASDAQ Extending its rise to 14350 1W MA100 turned into Support.Nasdaq (NDX) hit last Thursday our long-term target (see idea below) of the August 16 2022 Resistance and even though it took longer than anticipated, it finally filled that Gap:
The pattern that is directing the price action higher is a Rising Wedge and right now the price is very close to its top (Higher Highs trend-line). However coming off a 1D MACD Bullish Cross and more importantly having broken above the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) after more than a year, we expect an extension of this short-term bullish leg. Our target is slightly below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the November 2021 All Time High, at 14350.
Key condition for this is to hold the 1W MA100 as its long-term Support now. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the short-term Support since January 20 (hasn't closed a 1D candle below it since then).
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23052023 - $NDXNDX is similar to SPX (with the lower higher lower low candle yesterday) but it is stronger and market made a new high this morning. Note it hit resistance at the same time SPX hit the resistance.
Similar to SPX, would say be cautiously bullish above PZ 13825 but look to go short for yet another move to BZ if it breaks.
Overall, IMO NDX is poised for a pullback before further up possible. The resolution of the debt ceiling issue could well be the trigger.
NDX are you rdy for long ?🧨🧨👌Nasdaq index, did you know that this index has an upward trend in the past two weeks? Well, interestingly, Bitcoin also has and I announced this in my analysis.
Well, how far the index should go up, you should be careful, I won't say here if it goes up.
Two more targets will not be seen, the first target is 15265.42, the index will go up to this price.
Our second target is 16607.19. I am giving you this information based on the method of dirty banks, so don't forget that this index is bullish to see these targets.
NASDAQ Overbought RSI will start kicking in soon.Nasdaq hit all of our targets on this bullish leg and even crossed over the 13750 High of August 2022 (Resistance 1).
The MA50 (1d) is supporting the Channel Up and Rising Wedge patterns but the RSI (1d) is overbought above 70.00 for the 3rd straight day.
As the price is that close to the top of the Rising Wedge, overbought pressure may start kicking in soon.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on tight SL on the current market price.
2. Sell at 14100.
Targets:
1. 14100 (top of Rising Wedge).
2. The MA50 (1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) has been on a Rising Support since September 30 2022. This indicates that every pull back is weaker and gets bought more easily, suggesting a strong long term bullish trend.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
US100 Retracement and then Higher high?We got a very bullish price action since last 2 weeks. Looking for a retracement at 12850 level and then a higher high to 13500
I would like to go short around 13100 level and possible target is 12850-12900 with 13150 as the stop loss.
Please share your thoughts. Thank you
The Debt Ceiling The debt ceiling in the US is a legislative limit on the amount of national debt that can be incurred by the U.S. Treasury.
President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to hold a direct meeting on Monday following a weekend of intermittent negotiations regarding the nation's debt ceiling. This meeting takes place just days before the government faces a critical "hard deadline" where it risks running out of funds to meet its financial obligations.
The possibility of a government default is unprecedented and would have devastating consequences for the nation's economy. Yellen and economic experts have expressed concerns, highlighting the potential for the situation to become "catastrophic."
In the past, raising the debt ceiling used to be a routine act carried out by Congress, enabling the Treasury Department to continue borrowing funds to cover the nation's already incurred bills.
However, in recent times, the vote to raise the debt ceiling has become a point of political leverage, with lawmakers using it as a must-pass bill to push forward other priorities.
House Republicans, who hold the majority this Congress, are currently refusing to raise the debt limit unless President Biden and the Democrats agree to implement federal spending cuts and impose restrictions on future spending.
In my opinion, we will see a suspension of the debt ceiling to allow for negotiations to form and be completed. As a result, I have a short-term bullish outlook, followed by an anticipated drop to $392 after the announcement, whatever it may be.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
QQQ Order Flow - Selling Exhaustion Leads To Explosive GainsHey traders,
QQQ is in an explosive uptrend as the AI narrative reaches fever pitch.
However, as traders, all we care about is to look for long opportunities each and every time there is exhaustion by the sell-side.
These exhaustions, signaled via the DIAMOND pattern, offer an incredible risk-reward... (10% gains on the first print and 5% so far).
With the bullish structure in our favor as indicated via the OFA script, all we need is to wait for the entry trigger as new structures are formed.
Be reminded, when using the OFA script, it comes with highly accurate signals that, at its core, apply 2 main areas of study:
Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude?
Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NDX Swing ShortNasdaq has been rallying hard the past few weeks, thanks to tech rally due to recent growth opportunities provided by rise of AI.
But Nasdaq is reaching significant levels both from S/R perspective and market structure.
1.We are reaching the top edge of the parallel channel
2.We are at PRZ of couple of harmonics (Cypher and BAT).
3. Also, within very close proximity of the top of rising wedge.
Keep a close watch on top tech stocks (Microsoft and Nvidia) Stocks, these have been the primary reasons for a rally in NDX, if these stocks start to fall, so will NDX.
Another reason for anticipating down weeks and months in NDX is due to Breakout in DXY which is -0.81 correlated to NDX. Which means 80% of the time NDX moves opposite to DXY.
To read my DXY analysis, go over the links below.
Nasdaq - The Q's Party is Almost OverThe Nasdaq has shown remarkable strength throughout the year, outperforming market expectations and surprising many investment strategists. In late January 2023, the index experienced a bullish breakout, marking a significant positive signal for growth after a year-long downtrend. However, it's important to note that a bearish pattern has recently emerged, indicating potential limitations to further upside momentum. While the possibility of a false breakout cannot be ruled out, if it were to occur, it would likely be short-lived. Consequently, I anticipate a downward trend for the Nasdaq in the coming weeks. It's worth paying attention to the areas marked by green bubbles, as they represent potential levels of support where bullish investors would want to maintain control. Any significant breakdown of the lower green support area could have severe consequences for growth and overall market performance.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
NASDAQ: Crossed over the August 2022 High but overbought.Nasdaq hit and crossed today over R1 (13,730) which was the High of August 16th 2022, the last major Resistance standing. It did so however on an overbought 1D technical timeframe (RSI = 70.248, MACD = 173.650, ADX = 31.828), which is a bell to start booking profits, especially since the price is approaching the top (HH trendline) of the Rising Wedge, the pattern that guides the trend since November.
More specifically, every time the 1D RSI hit the 70.000 overbought level in the past 12 months, Nasdaq declined. There is a HL trendline that supports the RSI though, so you can prepare your buy accordingly. We will take advantage of the next pullback and target the 1.236 Fibonacci extention (TP = 14,500).
Prior idea:
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Complacency TO THE MAXOverall Market is in "Greed" mode.
Put/Call options in "Extreme Greed" mode.
This market is the most complacent I have seen in my 10 years of trading.
NO progress was made yesterday on the debt ceiling after McCarthy and Biden's meeting. Biden is leaving the country for a week and the Treasury has said we have 2-3 weeks to resolve this or catastrophe unfolds.
The VIX should at least be in the 20s right not.
Investors are flooding into bonds which could ALSO get crushed if the debt ceiling isn't resolved as interest rates WILL SPIKE, sending bonds lower, and exacerbating the banking crisis further.
Unbelievably stupid AF markets right now.
I will keep buying the VIX right now and Puts expiring next summer most likely. There is 0% chance this market pushes even near new highs. The downside risk FAR outweighs the possible the possible returns at this point.