NASDAQ broke above the 1W MA100 after a year!Nasdaq (NDX) is extending the bullish trend inside the short-term Channel Up as mentioned on are recent idea two weeks ago (see below):
Today the index reached a very important benchmark as it broke above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time in more than 1 year (since the 1W candle of April 25 2022). This was a critical Resistance as it rejected the uptrend back on the week of August 15 2022. With the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting and the Channel Up that started in December intact, we see a Resistance test of the 13730 High as inevitable, so there is your short-term target if you are looking for one.
On the longer term, since the February 02 Higher Highs trend-line broke, the Channel Up can target the November 15 2022 Higher Highs trend-line. A typical +11% rally within this Channel Up can easily target this trend-line, so now we are setting a 14100 long-term target on Nasdaq. Especially if the 1D RSI breaks above its own Lower Highs trend-line.
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NASDAQ 100 CFD
Nasdaq -> Obvious Top FormationHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Nas100 is currently approaching a quite obvious previous weekly structure area which is now turned resistance exactly at the $13.500 level.
You can also see that from a weekly perspective, Nas100 is a little bit overextended towards the upside and in my opinion we are ready for a short term correction before we will then see more continuation towards the upside.
On the daily timeframe you can see that Nas100 is currently forming a rising wedge formation which is always considered a reversal sign, so I am now just waiting for some bearish selling pressure before I will then enter a short to capitalize on the next dump towards the downside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ: Still very bullish but long term buy levels are lower.Nasdaq extends the rise inside the Rising Wedge which is inside the larger Channel Up pattern. Both 4H and 1D timeframes (RSI = 60.950, MACD = 132.290, ADX = 25.277) are bullish and this price action hints to a slow rise towards R1. In addition, the MACD has already made a Buy Cross, which did on both previous Lows. If the Rising Wedge breaks downwards, the S1 and the 1D MA50 will be our first buy entry.
If however the index closes under the S1, we don't expect S2 to hold but will rather expect buy accumulation on the 1D MA100, which is where the massive rebound of the March 13th low happened. In all cases, the target is R1 (TP = 13,730).
Prior idea:
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NAS Ending Diagonal Triangle Break It doesn't get more obvious than this. We're probably headed back to 12k at the very least on a corrective wave. Fed GDP forecasts are really all you need to see to know lots of rate hikes and taxes coming soon. It's halving every year, and that's an optimistic estimate. Don't wanna spook the market. fred.stlouisfed.org
Weekly Update: Stop Motion ChartsUnfortunately this week I do not have the time to do a deep dive into the ES futures...suffice to stay, if you like being entertained...go back and review my ES Chart posts over the weeks. It's like watching stop motion animation as the only that has changed on the chart is the price action.
PS: Next week I'll have more time to update my followers.
Best to all,
Chris
NASDAQ One last pull back possible but bullish nonetheless.Nasdaq has formed a Rising Wedge with the price near its top.
Another pull back to the 4hour MA50 is technically feasible and if it happens, buy and target 13500.
If the price crosses above the Rising Resistance, then buy the break out and target Resistance A at 13730.
Previous chart:
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SPX -More upside before relevant downside for US indexesHello traders!
We are still tracking a double three structure for a primary wave B to the upside on the Us indexes. In NDX the structure appears clearer in his last zigzag, and as we argued before a descending broadening wedge and a W pattern have targets above 13600.
Even if the wave structure on SPX is less clear, bounce from the bottom show corrective character but bullish pattern are present with higher targets. Below the Inverse Head and Shoulder highlighted:
The confluence zone that comprehends the Patterns targets, the fibo EW targets, and the volume cluster resistance is 4235-4326 for SPX and 13615-13900 for NDX.
We will hold our long from 12909.1 on NDX up to the confluence zone, where we will reevaluate the price action looking for possible short setups. At the same time we will look for a macro wedge retest on VVIX:
Bests
GMR
NASDAQ: Keep buying on pullbacks.Nasdaq has turned the Channel Up into a Rising Wedge on the 4H time frame with technicals healthy bullish (RSI = 60.461, MACD = 23.460, ADX = 25.411). The current rebound is on the 4H MA50 and every pullback is a buy opportunity, targeting the top of the Rising Wedge (TP = 13,450). If it closes under the 4H MA200, we will add a second buy, targeting the top of the Channel Up near R1 (TP = 13,650).
Prior idea:
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NASDAQ Still bullish with 2 scenarios within the Channel Up.Nasdaq (NDX) continues to trade within the March 20 Channel Up and is approaching the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), having had the last rebound on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). The price action is starting to look a lot like April where a Channel Down took the price to the Channel Up bottom and then had a +4.50% rebound. If this prevails we will add a new buy on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and target 13400. If the price though closes above 13300, it invalidates this and we will buy the break-out instead, targeting 13500 (+4.50% rise from the bottom).
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09052023 -$NDXSimilar to SPX, price is in consolidation. Yesterday price did a minor pullback but closed higher. Bias still to the upside with BZ supporting it.
Above 13275 cautiously long to 13331, 13383.
Short 13383 if traded today.
Below 13251 look for move to 13213 which would be the pivot level for bounce or further downside.
Nasdaq -> Bulls Are In ControlHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Nas100 is actually approaching a quite obvious previous weekly support/resistance zone at the $13,500 level which is now turned resistance once again.
You can also see that from a weekly perspective, market structure is extremely bullish, moving averages are also bullish and we just recently broke above and retested a previous weekly resistance which was then turned support so from a weekly perspective I simply do expect a deeper retest of the next resistance at the $13,500 before I then do expect a short term rejection towards the downside.
On the daily timeframe you can see that with today's candle, Nas100 is finally breaking above a previous daily strong resistance area so market structure is now bullish again - I am just waiting for a little bit more upside, then a retest of the previous resistance which is then turned support and then I do expect more continuation towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ Falling Wedge bullish breakoutNasdaq crossed over the Falling Wedge pattern, which is a minor construct inside the long term Channel Up.
The breakout started after the price rebounded on the MA50 (4h).
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 13600 (5.66% rise and near Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is identical to the RSI on the first Falling Wedge breakout of this Channel Up. This is how the +5.66% expectation is calculated.
2. The MA50 (1d) is a little under the Channel Up and is the current Support and last buy entry if the price pulls back.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
SPX | Of Course I'm Lying (?)I am not lying.
I am completely disproving my latest idea, on how to short SPX. That idea went on Editors' Picks. And I am now killing it.
I am not kidding, April Fools is for fools. I don't consider me or you a fool. So I am being serious.
Chart analysis is not always straightforward. Pinpointing tops and bottoms is the ultimate bet for a trader. As most of you know, this is very hard sometimes.
In 99% of a chart's movement, the trend is continuing. A significant trend change is very rare. Significant evidence for a trend reversal are VERY RARE, and not apparent in all timeframes.
This is a chart that shows clear evidence of reversals. On the weekly timeframe, SPX analysis has showed significant evidence of peaks and bottoms.
Believe it or not, SPX and NDX are showing evidence of going long.
But what about long-term?
Now THAT is a hard conversation.
KST (and many other indicators) can show us incredibly early signs of price stagnation.
Signs of stagnation in long-term charts however, can take DECADES to play out.
SPX/M2SL Technicals were peaking in 1957, but the peak in SPX prices came 6 years later.
For the standard SPX chart, things took even longer to play out.
It is as if we are in 1957. And there is more evidence towards such a realization.
What I did here was basically compare the .com bubble with the Roaring '20s.
The .com bubble was just a very-fast version of the Roaring '20s. If we slow down NDX a little, we end up with the following:
The effect of bubbles is apparent in different periods, and in different scales. The same laws that shaped the 1950-1980 price movement, may be dictating the movement of today's stock market.
The Roaring '20s still has an effect on our moves. We may be living inside the reality-distortion field of the .com bubble.
KST Peaking is an EXTREMELY early sign of stagnation. Price continues upwards, albeit at a slower rate.
Now as we speak, KST reaches this exact point of peaking. This has proved an extremely early sign of stagnation.
Will this time be different, and instead KST is showing an immediate sign, an abrupt crash?
Perhaps things are too simple after all.
Long Live the US!
P.S. Remember, the stock market is for the patient ones, those who plan for decades ahead.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
BIGGEST ECONOMIC CONTRACTION OF A LIFETIMEThe comparisons to the beginning of dot com are uncanny.
I compared countless indicators and the current price action is identical to the dot com beginning.
Additionally, the duration of the yield curve inversion is identical and the % of the drop is identical, almost to the decimal.
The current contraction took 5x as long to reach this point as compared with the dot com.
The dot com contraction took 2.3 years to hit bottom from the identified mark.
Scaling the time, this correction could take 10 years (5 x 2) to reach bottom.
We've enjoyed 15 years of a bull market (with some bumps along the road).
Now, we are facing the most inverted yield curve in 40 + years.
Time for the market to pay the piper.
I fear this will be a recession we will share with our children in 20 years
We are only at the start of this.
US100 / NASDAQ 5May2023the market looks very bullish, look for a period when the price corrects so that the buy can get the best area / price
NASDAQ Buy opportunity on the 4hour MA200Nasdaq hit today the 4hour MA200 after a week of trading over it.
This is our first buy entry. The second will be if the price hits the 1day MA50, which has been untouched since March 15th.
Target the Rising Resistance at 13400. If broken, extend to Resistance A at 13730 which is the high of August 2022.
Previous chart:
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