NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 FEB 06 WEEK
Result for week of 30 Jan yielded yielded 550pts in total for 2 trades.
Market was resisted at a previous supply area.
Supply has come in to defend the 12987 area, with a potential
for market to return to test 12140-11983.
Possible scenarios:
1) Long on test and accept of breakout area 12140-11983
2) Short at rejection of 12987-12927 // 12618
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Higher vol up bar close off high = Weakness
Daily: Potential 2BR high vol = Weakness
H4 = 2BR + UT + down bar = Weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
13587 12987-12927
12618 12140-11983
11603
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NQ UpdateNQ is now back in the channel and no longer overbought. Wondering if the melt up continues despite really strong jobs numbers. Can;t tell if stocks are doing a gap fill or continuing the rally.
TSLA is green and I gotta go for a drive so I just flipped my LI puts. Beer money. Should've shorted gold, lol. AT least I was right about China, but market doesn't expect it to move down Monday because PDD isn't tanking like yesterday.
NASADQ trend lines and channelsAnother of my big picture looks at the NASDAQ. You can see that we had a strong rally off the bottom of the blue channel, and right now it is around the middle of the channel. In the big picture though, we have barely come down out of the massive QE and low interest rate bubble created after the financial crisis. I find it hard to get too into this rally, we saw Meta rally 20% even with its latest financial report show something like $4 Billion in losses, but some vague promises about "Year of Efficiency". That tells me that markets are very FOMO right now after a really hard year and are looking for anything to recapture the bubble of 2021. Labor reports continue to be strong, which seems to be feeding the rally, especially so after the Fed's super dovish 0.25% hike and "disinflation" nonsense. The break above the 200 day SMA and crossing of the 20 and 200 day are also really bullish signs. That said, pick your favorite quote about the market: 1) Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent or 2) Bull markets climb a wall of worry. Good luck.
Daily
NASDAQ Pull-back started. Where to re-buy.Nasdaq (NDX) made a perfect pull-back and rebound following our most recent analysis and hit (even overextended) our 12530 target:
Since the rise has been that strong we are switching to a Fibonacci approach. The previous two pull-backs (almost) hit both the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level before rebounding around +9.00%. From yesterday's High, the 0.618 Fib is at 12290. A contact with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) will further solidify it as a buy entry. Our buy target in that case will be 13370 (around +9.00% rise, which happened 3 times in January). Additionally, the RSI Buy Zone can also help to determine if that timing to buy is right.
This 1-month pattern will be invalidated if the price closes below the Higher Lows trend-line, in which case Nasdaq will seek the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as the long-term Support.
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Nasdaq -> The End Of The Bear MarketHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
The Nasdaq is currently creating a massively bullish weekly double bottom and with this weeks rally already broke above the neckline of the double bottom.
From a weekly perspective I am not just waiting for a retest of the neckline, which is then turned support and then I am definitely looking for the longer term continuation to the upside.
On the daily timeframe, my prediction of the last video analysis played out perfectly and this was also a very juicy trade for me personally. Now we are testing daily resistance, so I am just waiting for an opportunity to get short, to then capitalize on the short term retracement towards the downside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NQ UpdateAH gap filed during Asian hours and RSI is overbought but more than likely a melt up. I might not post for a while because indicators don't work during a melt up and I don't want to be misleading anyone.
Tomorrow depends on AAPL/AMZN/GOOGL earnings. Pull back or more pumptardedness? I dunno, but I don't recommend shorting until NQ and ES fill the gaps marked in orange.
Good luck.
Bunch of copy paste quotes on Fed Meeting, $DJI $NDX GREAT DAY!Apologize for the LATE post on this
We posted this elsewhere, documented, and bringing it here
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Yesterday
So, #fed tomorrow.......
We get 25, likely rally and fade next day or few days later
We get 50, likely sell off decently & then rally
This could reverse in one day or take week or more
#FederalReserve meeting
#stocks #crypto #inflation
Done for today :) Good day overall
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Early Today, after announcement-
Was at least expecting a pop first before the fall
Interesting day today
Maybe we get the fall and then the rally...
However how we end the day, the next day tends to be a reverse of some sort
$DJI $NDX $SPX
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After-
For a second we though we were going to get put (sold a bunch of put options when $DJI was off 340 points and $NDX was closer to day lows) a ton of #stock ROFL
Limits being filled, not being greedy
#crypto green
US #Dollar $DXY hitting lows (did say HISTORICALLY doesn't hold)
-
We've been cautious #BULL for a bit & we need 2b weary of EUPHORIA
We're watching for that, IMPORTANT!
$VIX @ bottom trend (we'll know VERY SOON what's up)
#yield falling $TNX, 2yr not as much, hmmm
#stocks huge turnaround
#crypto as well
What about volume? Soon
----
$NDX & $DJI BUY volume is still there but it's lowering
#DJI looking GOOD atm
$NDX NO slouch testing downtrend soon
#markets ARE IRRATIONAL
Look at volume, patterns & trend!!!
----
Recent
Awesome #stock day today! Good for the week!
Raised cash again for trading
Have some longs still
$DOW $META (taking some off here), $KHC $INTC $ATVI & some others BUT aggressive TRADING still 1/3 in bonds, expire soon, & cash for tomorrow & other days
Done for day &👀direction
---
Look at $RUT $IWM
RISK is ON ON ON
Has been on
Volume is ok
#stocks have been looking ok
$DJI breaking symmetrical = continuation pattern
Staying cautious BULL!
More haters of rally = GOOD!
Keep eye on EUPHORIA!
Will this week reveal an ongoing earnings recession?On 5th January 2023, we noted that the breakout above the upper bound of the descending channel would be bullish for the Nasdaq 100 index in the short term. Quickly after that, NQ1! broke above the resistance and embarked on the longest winning streak since November 2021. This recent move-up has been accompanied by market euphoria and overly bullish calls. Many investors are already dismissing the prospect of recession in 2023 and thinking the bear market is over. However, these calls are likely to turn out to be premature. Therefore, we will pay close attention to earnings reports from various companies. We will seek a decline in corporate profits to confirm our bearish thesis (beyond the short term). In addition to that, we will look for downgrades in future outlook and warnings over the slowing economy. As a result, we expect reality to creep back into the market and drag it lower over time. Accordingly, we maintain our 2023 price target for NQ1! at $10 000.
Big names reporting their earnings this week:
Microsoft
J&J
Verizon
Lockheed MartinRaytheon Technologies
General Electrics
Tesla
AT&T
IBM
Boeing
General Dynamics
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the resistance, followed by the longest winning streak since November 2021.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of NQ1! and two simple moving averages. We would like to see the index break below the 50-day SMA to support a bearish thesis. Contrarily, we would like to see the price hold above the 50-day SMA to support a bullish continuation of the rally.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
YOU need to see this now - THE DANGER LINEThis is a wave trend indicator on the S&P 500 index that is based on relative strength with straightforward oversold or overbought conditions. Relative strength is a measure of momentum where both speed (time) and magnitude (change) is measured and plotted with simple or weighted moving averages.
What you are seeing above is a snapshot of a RSI/wave trend of the S&P 500 index based on monthly candles. Understand that it takes the measure of a month of time just to get a single plot of data and this particular snapshot represents over two decades. But right before your eyes are very clear trends. The data is just pure and simple math and math does not lie. Ignore the news. Follow price, volume, momentum.. just follow the data.
I will try not to state my opinion too much.. and just follow the data. What I see on the chart is concerning. If this decline continues over the next month or two, momentum is going to accelerate and volatility go up while the market basically crashes... i.e. if the DANGER LINE is breached. I found it odd that volatility (VIX) has been quite docile considering the amount of downside we've seen in the indices this year. That is concerning. It is entirely possible that the September thru November monthly candles are positive and this trend finds support.. and the danger line is not breached. On the flipside, this decent can continue and really pick up speed and we see a 2000-2003 correction or 2007-2009.
Here is an overlay snapshot with those corrections to similar scale. That is what could happen if the current trend continues.. we could see 12-24 months of recession and very steep drops and sharp bearish reversals. Be careful, manage risk, consider hedging certain positions, and know that you DO NOT know what is going to happen.
NASDAQ holding the 1 month patternNasdaq (NDX) is pull-back following Friday's high. This is nothing more than a technical 1-month pattern which, supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is posting rises around +6% and pull-backs around -3.5%.
The 4H MA50 is currently a little over 11800 and a -3.80% pull-back (max on the pattern) can make exact contact with it tomorrow. With the Higher Lows trend-line just below it, we are willing to buy there and aim at a +5.85% rise at 12530.
The 4H RSI Buy Zone can offer additional insight on the buy entry. A break and closing below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), would be a trend change and sell signal towards 10800.
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Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
Based on the data from VXN we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 25.01%, equal to last week.
This can be translated in +/- 3.47% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 12640
BOT: 11788
The probability to break this channel(aka the close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at
If we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the VXN( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter
to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be:
84% according to the last 20 years of data
100% according to the data since 2022( I would recommend the 87% instead)
So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
78% to touch the previous weekly high
26% to touch the previous weekly low
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: +53% Bullish Trend
D Timeframe: +66% Bullish Trend
W Timeframe: -26% Bearish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
3.37% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
3.4% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 28
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 28
Result for week of 23 Jan analysis yielded Intraday 100pts on 25 Jan
and 450pts for levels/position trade.
Price is now at the Rotational Resistance area.
Higher TF did not display trend changing weakness.
H4 is showing a potential weakness for long on retracement
opportunity / temporary short opportunity.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short if rejected between 12400 - 12140 / 11727
2) Breakout of rotation = possible long if price continues to trade
at upper boundary of rotation zone.
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Ave vol up bar close off high = Minor weakness
Daily: Ave vol up bar close off = Minor weakness
H4 = Ave vol down bar (UT) S>D = Possible Trend Change
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12987 12400 - 12140 11603
10890 10710 10484
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
S&P 500 - Medium term upside or lower lows?In our previous post we outlined how we distinguish tow different scenarios.
Either we are in a ABC to the upside targeting 4300 and possibly beyond (as labeled in the main chart, green arrow) or we are in wave 3 of C targeting lower lows and the completion of the bearish wolfe wave pattern.
We stated how we believe the first scenario to be more likely, but the broadening patterns, the fact that priced failed to take out 4136, bearish divergence on rsi and the wolfe wave that still has a lower target suggests that the bearish scenario is still a possibility.
This may unfold as below:
In each case, a movement to the downside is now expected. We evaluate the probability of the two scenarios once more price action unfolds.
Breaking the major trendline and retesting or fake out? Stay tuned.
We are short from @4050 stop loss 4065.5 risk 0.6% of equity
NASDAQ: my view for Intraday and SwingHi Traders,
This is my view for this week on
NASDAQ
I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are.
Therefore the following signal will be activated only if specific rules are strictly respected.
I really hope you liked this content and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below to give me your point of view.
Pit
DISCLAIMER:
Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
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$NDX bottoming well, so far$NDX quick short trade once it hit top part of trend
BUT covered quick
Normally would short for longer term here
BUT....... we're likely going bit higher
Jan was great, we called it!
Feb might continue but plateau and wane into March
#NDX bottoming well.......
$QQQ #QQQ #Stocks