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NASDAQ 100 CFD

Will this week reveal an ongoing earnings recession?On 5th January 2023, we noted that the breakout above the upper bound of the descending channel would be bullish for the Nasdaq 100 index in the short term. Quickly after that, NQ1! broke above the resistance and embarked on the longest winning streak since November 2021. This recent move-up has been accompanied by market euphoria and overly bullish calls. Many investors are already dismissing the prospect of recession in 2023 and thinking the bear market is over. However, these calls are likely to turn out to be premature. Therefore, we will pay close attention to earnings reports from various companies. We will seek a decline in corporate profits to confirm our bearish thesis (beyond the short term). In addition to that, we will look for downgrades in future outlook and warnings over the slowing economy. As a result, we expect reality to creep back into the market and drag it lower over time. Accordingly, we maintain our 2023 price target for NQ1! at $10 000. Big names reporting their earnings this week: Microsoft J&J Verizon Lockheed MartinRaytheon Technologies General Electrics Tesla AT&T IBM Boeing General Dynamics Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the resistance, followed by the longest winning streak since November 2021. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of NQ1! and two simple moving averages. We would like to see the index break below the 50-day SMA to support a bearish thesis. Contrarily, we would like to see the price hold above the 50-day SMA to support a bullish continuation of the rally. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
28
YOU need to see this now - THE DANGER LINEThis is a wave trend indicator on the S&P 500 index that is based on relative strength with straightforward oversold or overbought conditions. Relative strength is a measure of momentum where both speed (time) and magnitude (change) is measured and plotted with simple or weighted moving averages. What you are seeing above is a snapshot of a RSI/wave trend of the S&P 500 index based on monthly candles. Understand that it takes the measure of a month of time just to get a single plot of data and this particular snapshot represents over two decades. But right before your eyes are very clear trends. The data is just pure and simple math and math does not lie. Ignore the news. Follow price, volume, momentum.. just follow the data. I will try not to state my opinion too much.. and just follow the data. What I see on the chart is concerning. If this decline continues over the next month or two, momentum is going to accelerate and volatility go up while the market basically crashes... i.e. if the DANGER LINE is breached. I found it odd that volatility (VIX) has been quite docile considering the amount of downside we've seen in the indices this year. That is concerning. It is entirely possible that the September thru November monthly candles are positive and this trend finds support.. and the danger line is not breached. On the flipside, this decent can continue and really pick up speed and we see a 2000-2003 correction or 2007-2009. Here is an overlay snapshot with those corrections to similar scale. That is what could happen if the current trend continues.. we could see 12-24 months of recession and very steep drops and sharp bearish reversals. Be careful, manage risk, consider hedging certain positions, and know that you DO NOT know what is going to happen.
SP:SPX
by gghsusa
11
NASDAQ holding the 1 month patternNasdaq (NDX) is pull-back following Friday's high. This is nothing more than a technical 1-month pattern which, supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is posting rises around +6% and pull-backs around -3.5%. The 4H MA50 is currently a little over 11800 and a -3.80% pull-back (max on the pattern) can make exact contact with it tomorrow. With the Higher Lows trend-line just below it, we are willing to buy there and aim at a +5.85% rise at 12530. The 4H RSI Buy Zone can offer additional insight on the buy entry. A break and closing below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), would be a trend change and sell signal towards 10800. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by TradingShot
3
Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 Based on the data from VXN we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 25.01%, equal to last week. This can be translated in +/- 3.47% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel TOP: 12640 BOT: 11788 The probability to break this channel(aka the close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at If we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the VXN( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be: 84% according to the last 20 years of data 100% according to the data since 2022( I would recommend the 87% instead) So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information: Currently there is a : 78% to touch the previous weekly high 26% to touch the previous weekly low At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see : 4H Timeframe: +53% Bullish Trend D Timeframe: +66% Bullish Trend W Timeframe: -26% Bearish Trend Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move: 3.37% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario 3.4% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
2
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 28 NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 28 Result for week of 23 Jan analysis yielded Intraday 100pts on 25 Jan and 450pts for levels/position trade. Price is now at the Rotational Resistance area. Higher TF did not display trend changing weakness. H4 is showing a potential weakness for long on retracement opportunity / temporary short opportunity. Possible scenarios: 1) Short if rejected between 12400 - 12140 / 11727 2) Breakout of rotation = possible long if price continues to trade at upper boundary of rotation zone. Volume Analysis: Weekly = Ave vol up bar close off high = Minor weakness Daily: Ave vol up bar close off = Minor weakness H4 = Ave vol down bar (UT) S>D = Possible Trend Change Price reaction levels: Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 12987 12400 - 12140 11603 10890 10710 10484 Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week ahead.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by paradox677
1
S&P 500 - Medium term upside or lower lows?In our previous post we outlined how we distinguish tow different scenarios. Either we are in a ABC to the upside targeting 4300 and possibly beyond (as labeled in the main chart, green arrow) or we are in wave 3 of C targeting lower lows and the completion of the bearish wolfe wave pattern. We stated how we believe the first scenario to be more likely, but the broadening patterns, the fact that priced failed to take out 4136, bearish divergence on rsi and the wolfe wave that still has a lower target suggests that the bearish scenario is still a possibility. This may unfold as below: In each case, a movement to the downside is now expected. We evaluate the probability of the two scenarios once more price action unfolds. Breaking the major trendline and retesting or fake out? Stay tuned. We are short from @4050 stop loss 4065.5 risk 0.6% of equity
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by GMR-Capital
1
NASDAQ: my view for Intraday and SwingHi Traders, This is my view for this week on NASDAQ I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are. Therefore the following signal will be activated only if specific rules are strictly respected. I really hope you liked this content and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below to give me your point of view. Pit DISCLAIMER: Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice. ———————————
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by kitchen_trading
1
NASDAQ hit 1D MA200 for first time since April 05!The Nasdaq index (NDX) hit today its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 05 2022. This completed the bullish leg we signaled on our analysis at the start of this month: At the same time, the price hit the January 05 Lower Highs trend-line, entering the No-trade Zone. This is the region we regard as highly volatile as it is between the 0.618 Fibonacci level from the August 16 High and the Lower Highs trend-line. We will buy again upon confirmation after a 1D candle closes above the 0.618 Fib and target the 1W MA100, which is just below the 13760 August 16 High. Similarly, if we close a candle below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), we will sell back to the top of the Support Zone (10765). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by TradingShot
2
NDX:Nasdaq Pullback 61.8% Fibo For A LONG ViewAfter two weeks of strong gains, European markets returned some of the momenta from earlier this year with a subdued pullback last week, with some suggesting that we may have seen highs in the short term, similar to what we saw last year. In the U.S. markets, the week was more mixed, with the Dow posting its worst week since early December, while the Nasdaq 100 ended the week higher. While there is some logic to the claim that we may have seen a peak in U.S. markets given the way they have behaved over the past few months, there is less argument when looking at markets in Europe, which look set to open higher this morning. Valuations in Europe are initially lower, and from an earnings/dividend perspective much more attractive than in the U.S., with the FTSE100 and DAX trading at projected dividend yields of 3.77% and 3.36%, respectively. Nevertheless, there is a growing belief in financial markets that central banks are on the verge of a significant change in monetary policy later this year. This view seems to be gaining further support now that some Fed policymakers do not seem to be opposed to the idea of another step in the central bank's cycle of raising rates by up to 25 bps next week. This view continues to be reflected in the U.S. bond market, where yields continue to hit new multi-week lows, with 2-year U.S. bonds closing lower for the third week in a row, as did 10-year bond yields. The U.S. dollar dynamic was equally nuanced, hitting a new 8-month low as various European Central Bank officials continued to make more hawkish statements. The pound also held up well last week, closing higher against the U.S. dollar for the 4th week in a row Looking ahead to the new week, the focus will be on the latest company reports as investors will decide whether the current growth momentum can continue and how far central banks are willing to go to curb inflation. Last week, markets seemed to find some solace in the fact that amid the uncertain outlook for the global economy, companies have become more focused on preserving margins, cutting costs, and cutting jobs. This assumption is based on the assumption that any slowdown in economic growth would lead to a pause in the central bank's plans to raise rates, and then to a rapid rate cut. This assumes, of course, that the aforementioned central banks would be happy to start cutting rates when inflation is still well above target. This seems highly unlikely, and while markets seem used to this way of thinking since the financial crisis cut rates sharply, it is by no means what it seems to the markets. Unemployment is still low not only in the U.S., but also in Britain and Europe, and after Fed Chair Lael Brainard, usually considered "dovish," said last week that she thinks inflation is still too high, at this point, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which a rate cut this year would be likely.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by FOREXN1
17