NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 23
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 23
WISHING CHINESE FRIENDS A PROPEROUS YEAR OF THE RABBIT!
Did you do Scenario1 11385 long? Market gave at least 200pts.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short if rejected between 12400 - 12140 / 11727
2) Continuation long on retracement if price retraces on low volume
or supported by channel
3) Breakout of rotation = possible long if price continues to trade
at upper boundary of rotation zone.
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Low vol up bar close off high = No Demand
Daily: Ave vol up bar = No demand
H4 = High vol up bar close toward high = No Demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12987 12400 - 11908
11729 11385 10710
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
NASDAQ 100 CFD
Collapse Of The US Economy JAPAN - AMERICA | Part OneJapan's Real Estate and Stock Market Bubble
In the present day, asset bubbles sometimes are fuelled by overly stimulative monetary policy. Japan's economic bubble of the 1980s is a classic example. The yen's 50% surge in the early 1980s triggered a Japanese recession in 1986, and to counter it, the government ushered in a program of monetary and fiscal stimulus.
These measures worked so well that they fostered unbridled speculation, resulting in Japanese stocks and urban land values tripling between 1985 and 1989.
At the peak of the real estate bubble in 1989, the value of the Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo was greater than that of real estate in the entire state of California.
The bubble burst in 1991, setting the stage for Japan's subsequent years of price deflation and stagnant economic growth known as the Lost Decade
In the midst of an escalating pandemic, the US government enacted fiscal stimulus of an unprecedented magnitude between March 2020 and March 2021. The multifaceted stimulus acts provided for sizable Economic Impact Payments, better known as “stimulus checks”
these payments occurred in the context of significant growth in retail trading accounts and stock prices, particularly the prices of stocks that retail investors
tend to favor. Surveys suggest that on the order of 10%-15% of the payments may have shortly
found their way into the stock market.
The current US Federal reserve balance sheet (WALCL)
8.5 Trillion Dollars as of 2022
900 Billion Dollars from 2008
M2 (M2SL) Supply
21.4 Trillion as of 2022
7.6 Trillion from 2008
NASDAQ bottomed or fall 20% by March?Here is my chart combining channels, trend lines, and waves.
You can see that the NASDAQ has been fighting to stay inside the blue channel since mid-October, but has been trapped under the black channel. If it is going to hold, then this would be a good place. That would keep the blue channel bull rally intact.
However, this week's rejection off the top of the channel is not a great sign. There is still a good possibility that we still need to complete the wave C of the larger ABC correction before this is over. Right now, Wave C stands at a 0.618 fib extension of Wave A which is pretty small. If it goes lower, then a bounce and support at 0.786 seems logical, which is around the peak before the COVID crash. That could be a good long entry.
I would not rule out something closer to the 1.0 level before we are done. If that does come to be, then that takes us down to the red trend line created off the bottoms of the 2018 and 2020 corrections. That is the 9000 range (could overshoot down to 8700) and would be a great place for a big long entry. Anything lower than that, and, well, lets not think about.
Nasdaq Analysis 19.01.2023Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ: Going lower, no confirmed buy yet.Nasdaq may have formed a 4H Golden Cross yesterday but contrary to its practical use, this bullish formation hasn't been a buy signal for the index as long as its has been trading inside the Channel Up of October. With 1D technicals neutral (RSI = 50.571, MACD = 37.810, ADX = 32.497), the price isn't restricted from trading lower despite the medium term bullish trend.
We see that the previous two Golden Crosses stopped near the bottom of the Channel Up, in particular a little under the level of the first HL of the bullish wave prior (see red zone). We can expect currently a Low around 10,900. Additionally, we can buy when the 4H RSI breaches 30.000 and becomes oversold.
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How NOT to loose money, 1st do not trade people's ideas do your Home work, do your research and learn learn learn till you become aware of what is
going on in mkts and then being able to choose the right path for your and being able
to distinguish right ideas and analysis from the wrong ones.
*****Passing this cool info (Not mine) :
2. Set realistic expectations
When you're investing, your expectations of what you could earn should be realistic. And sometimes, measures like average rates of return can be misleading.
For example, if you invested in large-cap stocks between 1926 and 2020, you would've earned an average rate of return of 10.2%. And if you earned this rate of return over 30 years, $100,000 invested would've grown to $1.84 million.
But during that same time period, you would've earned a high of 54% in 1933 and a low return of -43% during 1931. If you invested for the first time during a year of losses, it could make you wary of investing.
Understanding that your returns won't be linear but instead, an average of positive, negative, and flat returns is important. And understanding this may help you withstand the bad years.
3. Know the difference between a realized and unrealized loss
When you look at your account balance and see that it's lower than it was the month before, it may feel as if you've lost money. But the numbers you see on your statement or when you log in to your account are called unrealized losses or gains. These numbers change for better or worse throughout a day of stock market activity and are only considered actual losses or gains when you realize them by selling your holdings.
For example, if your account balance was $10,000 last month and you experienced losses this month, it may now be worth $9,000. But you would only lose money in reality if you sell this investment before it gets back to its original value. Over the long term, the stock market has always increased in value, and your investments should, too, as long as you stay invested.
4. Have an appropriate time horizon
How soon you need your money could impact how well you keep your money invested during stock market crashes. If you won't need your money for 25 years and you suffer a 30% loss, you may shrug it off knowing that your account value could return back to that value in a few years. But if you plan on using the money next year, you may panic at the idea of losing any of it.
Before you invest one penny, think about your time horizon. And the closer it is, the more conservatively you should invest. Without the threat of missing your goal looming over your head, losses may not seem so devastating, and you'll be less likely to give up on investing due to a short-term drop.
5. Control emotions
Controlling your emotions is no easy task, and when you're losing money, it can feel like it will go on forever. But declines have never lasted forever. Learning how you can control your emotions when you're feeling this way can be the difference between experiencing subpar returns that lag benchmarks or keeping pace with them.
When you feel as if the sky is falling and it seems as if there's no end in sight, revisiting stock market corrections of the past can be helpful. Even during some of the periods of the most extreme losses, investors who stayed the course often recouped their losses within a few years. From 2000 through 2002, if you'd invested only in large-cap stocks, you would've lost about 38% in total. If you had $100,000, it would've decreased to around $62,000. But by 2006, you would've regained all of your money and been ahead slightly..
6. Invest in line with your risk appetite
How do you feel about volatility? Do you barely notice it and realize that it's a normal part of a market cycle? Or does it make your stomach drop every time it happens?
You can earn more over the long term if you have more aggressive investments, but in a year of losses, these types of investments could also lose more money. And if the losses seem too big, these investments may be too risky for you.
If this happens, staying invested may be harder. Making sure that you're invested in line with your risk tolerance can help you prevent this. You should also find an asset allocation model that suits your appetite for risk, even if it yields a lower average rate of return.
Investing should help you meet your goals instead of putting you further away from them. While your account value increasing or decreasing regularly is normal, you don't have to lose money. And controlling your fears, making sure you hold suitable investments, having realistic expectations about how your accounts will grow and the time frame in which those gains will happen can help you avoid it.
Apple's Probabilities since 09-21 W/ RSI of RSI divergence 94% !94% Probability we shall go down between 35%- 4%
25% Zero days
35% 32 Days
4.37% 6 Days
13% Zero Days
20% 8 Days
5.55% Zero Days
9 % 23 Days
9% Zero Days
***23% bullish move
7% 7 Days
20% 10 Days
25% 3 Days
5.23% Zero days
12% Zero days
6% Zero days
26% Zero days
11% Zero days
12% Zero days
-----------------------
SPX. The Certainty Trap ‘Never’ &‘always’ have no place in MKTS!Just passing this cool info written by a guy called Ben Carlson.
- Ben discusses the differences between probability and certainty:
"There are two arguments I see on a regular basis that show up as a result of data overload:
…because that’s never happened before.
…because that’s what’s always happened before.
-The problem with this line of thinking is that it can lead investors to fall into what I like to call the certainty trap. It’s this all-or-nothing line of thinking that causes so many to constantly attach extremes to every single market move or data point they see. The beginning of the recovery or the end of the world is always right around the corner. The assumption is that we’re always either at a top or a bottom when most of the time the markets are probably somewhere in the middle."
-The reason the investing certainty trap is so easy to fall for is because historical data can feel so safe and reassuring. Look here, my data says that this has never (always) happened in the past. Surely this trend will continue. I’ll just sit here and wait for my profits to start rolling in.
-‘Never’ and ‘always’ have no place in the markets because no one really knows what’s going to happen next. ‘Most of the time’ is a much more reasonable goal, because nothing works forever and always in the markets. If it did everyone would simply invest that way. I think a much more levelheaded approach is to follow the Jason Zweig 10 word investment philosophy:
-Anything is possible, and the unexpected is inevitable. Proceed accordingly.
NASDAQ going neutral for a while, remains under Resistance.News are not the best for Nasdaq (NDX), at least on the short-term, as it got rejected a little over the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and below the January 05 Lower Highs trend-line (Bear Cycle Resistance) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This marks the end of our buying trade as we called it on our previous post (January 04):
Right now we see, at best a repeat of the November 15 rejection, which turned the index sideways for a month. As long as the Support Zone holds, we will be buying the dip short-term. Below 10500, we will sell and target the -0.118 Fibonacci extension at 10100.
On the bright side, the 1D MACD shows that we are close to completing a bottom process similar to October 13. Still, we will only get long-term bullish above 12500 and the 0.618 Fibonacci, despite the fact that the 1D MA200 is the obvious long-term Resistance, unbroken since April 05. The reason is that with the Resistance Zone above it, we consider the Triangle area within the 0.618 Fib and the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line, a 'No-trade Zone'.
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Nasdaq (NDX) Monthly Pivots suggest time to invest is nighTLDR: If you want to invest long term buy the dip the time is upon you. I think we bounce off the upward slopping trendline but if we don't I just consider it time to Dollar Cost Average. There may be lower prices but the time to start seriously looking is here.
Introduction
I am not a big pivot trader but during times of relative quiet in the market I experiment with more indicators to see what insights I can get. I am predominately a crypto trader and a bit stuffy of a stuffy investor when it comes to my equities. My retirement plan has some 40 options and I basically just by indices.
The history on QQQ is pretty short compared to DJI or SPX but it the big boy in town. It has been either topping or in a downtrend for about a year depending on how you measure it. Very if one were to zoom in you would see price has bounced off S2 very perfectly.
For me, this is a win-win time to buy. If price bounces like I expect I did a great job buying this pull back. If not then I have found a decent place to buy on the downtrend. When the pivots next print I will buy extra at S1 and S2 again.
This potential stability for me is important because it helps provide a more stable macro environment for my crypto trades.
And of course, my linked ideas show my wider thinking on the bullishness in the market.
SPX, Now 13th Oct low is critical !Taking out 3806.91 minor high puts 13th Oct low (3491.58) in a critical position.
As explained in my previous publications, there was a chance for best case scenario and market bounce at 0.5 Retracement of rally after pandemic low and Bulls, Bottom fisher and Dip Buyers took the chance however, is this best case scenario going to happen? Bulls should pray for market to sustain last created low !
I showed two different yet possible scenarios on the chart:
On the left side of the chart ,shown in green, we have our best case scenario which calls for completion of an ABC form of correction. With yesterday's taking out 3806.91 minor high we have now a proof for termination of last down going wave which is labeled as wave C. If this is going to happen , SPX will see unbelievable upside targets. The key for this scenario is 3491.58 low. As far as index is above this low, market is safe for bulls.
On the right side of the chart, shown in red, we have our terrifying scenario which suggests painful targets for SPX. I am sure that you can see powerful resistances in this chart. Index is below 50,100 and 200 days moving average and also below major down trend line. I intentionally excluded these resistances from best case scenario chart to show how optimism can make us ignore what we should see. Is market able to break all these powerful resistances and continue it's way up to new ATH and unbelievable targets? If not, Market will see very unpleasant, terrifying painful targets.
Macroeconomics, War and energy crisis, Inflation and FED's series of rate hikes do not support best case scenario but market is crazy sometimes. For me and to be in safe side, breaking out mentioned resistances is necessary to be sure about market up trend.
Please keep this golden statement in mind :
" Sometimes best thing to do in market is doing nothing "
Good Luck.
NQ UpdateRSI hit overbought, looks like it pulled back.
ECB and Fed speakers tomorrow. Not sure what the pump is all about this morning since I'm not trading, but I might take a stab at some put options overnight.
I don't have much faith in the central banks actually doing their jobs correctly, so going light. Either way, I wouldn;t hold any long positions tonight.
17 Jan US pre-opening (M30)17 Jan US pre-opening (M30, Intraday,)
Weakening of demand observed, with possibility
of short on test of recent high
Plan:
1) If channel's supply line becomes resistance,
e.g, price close below channel supply line, and
is resisted, look for short.
2) If price close above channel, and price shows
support, look for long.
Feels like the market is coiled up like a spring Bulls take a position, get trapped; bears jump in and get trapped as well. A coil.
Stops are placed. As they should.
If the coil breaks out, half the crowd will quickly be wrong and bail.
The market will eventually pick a way, discover price. Up down, cant do sideways forever.
Crypto is rising, cpi is slowing. gasoline is cheaper.
Cnn sentiment index is at 'greed".
Percentage of stocks above moving averages is elevated. Vix is in downtrend and low end of range.
Valuation is still above historical 15 PE and shiller PE is near 29.
Many stocks are at 20 plus PEs, especially large caps, despite analyst show slower growth.
old trader sayings:
"from failed moves come fast moves"
"stocks move in the direction that hurts the most people"
"stocks always go up"
"buy high and sell higher"
Sound financial guidance recommends you only invest money you wont need for 5 years or more.
Good luck and dont risk money you can't afford to lose.
QQQ RTY IWM
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 15
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 15
Did 2 trades last 2 weeks based on Scenario1 from 01 Jan's Analysis.
Intraday Test and Accept Long at 10787, TP200pts, and continuation
long on retracement on Tue 10 Jan
No demand on uptrend on all 3 TF analysis, minor weakness but
no trend changing weakness yet. Will look for long on retracement.
Possible scenarios:
1) Long if accepted at 11385
2) Short if rejected between 12400 - 11908.50
3) Breakout of rotation = possible long if price continues to trade
at upper boundary of rotation zone.
4) If Rotation happens between 12400 - 11908, trade at boundary
of range.
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Low vol up bar close at high = No Demand
Daily: Low vol up bar close toward high = No Demand
H4 = Low vol up bar close off high = No Demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12987 12400 - 11908
11729 11385 10710
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
$VIX close to lower end of rangePre-market we're looking for RED
Sold lil more #stocks after posted we did some selling yesterday (posted elswhere)
Have💵& tons of leverage (only use on occasion)
$NDX should open around yellow line 11270s
$DJI support around 33800s
$VIX clobbered, due for bounce
Have a great trading day!!!
Nasdaq Analysis 12.01.2023Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Will Powell's speech spark another rally or spook the market?In our previous post on the Nasdaq index, we stated that the bullish breakout above the descending channel would bolster the bullish odds in the short term. Furthermore, we said that in such a scenario, we would closely observe volume and the ability of SMAs to halt the price rise. Interestingly, after the breakout, NQ1! jumped approximately 3.8% and stopped slightly below the 50-day SMA before returning below the 20-day SMA (falling within the scope of natural retracements after the price deviates too far from a moving average). At the same time, the volume picked up, reflecting an increase in selling pressure.
Despite this bullish development, we remain bearish on the index, which follows what we stated before about the breakout not impacting the primary bearish trend. Therefore, today, we will pay close attention to Jerome Powell’s speech. We expect him to reiterate that the FED will stay committed to hiking rates throughout 2023 and achieving its goals over time. Depending on Jerome Powell’s tone, market participants might find signs of a pivot in his words, potentially sparking more upside in the short term. Contrarily, an overly hawkish tone might spook the market into selling. Therefore, we raise a word of caution over a potential increase in volatility.
Expected dates of upcoming earnings for FAANG stocks in 2023:
Netflix - January 17th
Alphabet - January 31st
Meta Platforms - February 1st
Apple - February 2nd
Amazon - February 2nd
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates the breakout above the upper bound of the descending channel.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates the retracement to 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. To support a bearish case, we want to see the price stay below the 50-day SMA. Additionally, (ideally) we want to see a further increase in volume accompanying a price decline, followed by the breakout's invalidation.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF Santa Rally U.S. stocks tend to rise during the Santa Claus rally period.
The Santa Rally is considered the last five trading sessions of the year and first two of the new year.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has traded higher 78% of the time during the Santa rally period for an average gain of 1.3%.
My price target for QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF is $273.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.